(11-21-2022 11:08 AM)Vonz90 Wrote:  One win away teams and odds (from ESPN game tracker):

Rice (994) at North Texas - UNT -13.5
Auburn (983) at Alabama - AL - 21.5
Missouri (983) vs. Arkansas - ARK -3
Michigan State (983) at Penn State - PSU -18
Miami (982) vs. Pittsburgh - Pitt -6.5
Georgia Tech (979) at Georgia - UGA -35.5
Miami-Ohio (977) vs. Ball State - MIO - 3.5 (two 5 win teams, so someone will get 6)
Vanderbilt (973) vs. Tennessee - Tenn -13.5
Ball State (973) at Miami-Ohio - see above
Buffalo (968) vs. Kent State - Buff -4
Louisiana (955) at Texas State - UL -5.5
Georgia Southern (952) vs. Appalachian State - APP -4.5
Florida Atlantic (949) vs. Western Kentucky - WKU -7
UAB (945) at Louisiana Tech - UAB -17.5
Southern Mississippi (934) at UL Monroe - USM -3
UTEP (934) vs. UT San Antonio - UTSA -18

So just going by who is favorites, that would be like 5 teams getting their sixth win on Saturday, leaving a significant opportunity for some 5 win teams.

Two 5 win teams playing each other so it is really 11 teams for 8 spots (vice 13 teams for 9 spots). 4 are favorites, so that would theoretically leave 4 spots.

Navy's APR is 970 per what I found (big drop from last year 988). So I think Navy is out barring major chaos. Oh well.

For the Rice guy, you look like a lock.

I don't have the APR formula to show my work, but our APR took a hit from the departures in the plague years.
Still top 10 in GSR, which better accounts for players who go elsewhere and then graduatr.