(11-27-2022 03:27 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I think I'd rank Ohio St over USC, but they'll be close, and if USC wins their Conference title game then then they'll be considered of similar power, then the conference tiebreaker will put them over the top. Tennessee should certainly be ahead of bama, they beat bama and LSU and lost to 2 solid teams. Bama moves up to 7, then probably PSU and LSU at 8 and 9. So:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. tOSU
5. USC
6. Tennessee
7. Alabama
8. Penn St
9. LSU

It also creates more drama. Will USC's title game win be enough to push them past Ohio St.?! Tune in same time next week.

(11-27-2022 10:43 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  The Committee's job is to find the four best teams. If Alabama played Ohio State's schedule and Ohio State played Alabama's schedule, what would their records be? It's obviously a moot point, but based on what I saw yesterday I don't imaging Ohio State winning two out of @ Texas, @LSU, @Tennessee, and @Ole Miss.

Is that the question though? Given Alabama’s schedule I’d expect Alabama to go 11-1 (or better)… but they went 10-2. They may be better than their record indicates… but they still lost those games. It’s like those Pete Carroll teams that were Top 2 on the field but always managed to lose an extra game.

(11-27-2022 09:24 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 09:11 AM)ken d Wrote:  I think the committee could go that way, or they could go the opposite way. They could place USC #4 this week, to assert the principle that conference championships matter (even if they aren't the be all and end all). Then, if USC stumbles they can go to Alabama or Ohio State with less criticism.

Every ESPN CFB reporter is putting USC in the number 4. Pay in mind ESPN also has RB rights and would love USC vs OSU in that game. However, since Bama obviously won't be #4 after this week, USC probably takes it so it's a clear win and in situation going into next weekend.

If someone stumbles, the rankings this Tuesday will decide who slides in. Saban maybe has one or two more years left and they are going to give Bama that respect over anyone else in the country all other things equal. 5/6 this week will decide who's next in line. I'll say 55% OSU 45% Bama, but ESPN would love nothing more than to have OSU represent the B1G in the RB. That HAS to factor into this.

ESPN analysts are usually wrong.
But their coverage has a subtle influence on the committee who will be watching.

5. Ohio State
6. Alabama

(11-27-2022 12:08 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 11:57 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 11:53 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 11:51 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 11:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  All I know is, if you told me Bama was playing either Ohio State or Michigan on January 1st in a playoff game and I had to pick the winner with my life on the line, I'd pick Alabama without hesitation.

I'd spot you a TD and take that action

I'm just scratching my head wondering when the last time Alabama lost to a major B1G team?

That's right - the 2014 playoffs, 42-35 vs an Ohio State team with the second-best coach of the past 40 years and like 15 NFL draft picks. Since then, they've mopped the floor with a few of them.

I don't think either this Ohio State or Michigan teams fit that bill. But that's just me.

I mean they've only played two 11+ win Big 10 teams since that game so that's really not as far back as you think. I'd also add this Bama team isn't as good as that 2014 Bama team anyway.

Edit: make that one 11+ win team

IIRC, Alabama squashed Michigan State in the 2015 playoffs and Ohio State in the 2020 playoffs. Obviously OSU didn't have 11 wins because they played like seven games, but to me there is nothing magical about 11 wins. They also demolished a 9-win Michigan team in some bowl a couple years back.

FWIW, I am not sure how this Alabama team stacks up to 2014. I think pretty closer. Closer IMO than either of these two OSU and UM teams stack up to 2014 Ohio State. That team had Urban and boatload of talent. I don't see Michigan having that kind of talent at all.

Just MO.

This is easily the weakest Bama team since 2010. They were unbeaten or had only one regular season loss every year but 2019 since then. They aren't as dominate on the line and have a weak receiving corps and vulnerable secondary.

1. UGA. 2. Mich. 3. TCU 4. USC

Those won’t be denied right now pending CCGs’ results. Below that is where the selection committee’s subjectivity gets enhanced. Rank-order for #5, #6,….will have the pros & cons for each.

If the top 4 win their CCGs and those stay the same, controversy should be minimal. Each of the 4 can solidify their spots simply getting Ws. Georgia and Michigan are firm enough they could withstand non-extreme loses and remain in the top four.

(11-27-2022 01:01 PM)bullet Wrote:  ESPN analysts are usually wrong.
But their coverage has a subtle influence on the committee who will be watching.

The fact is, the better NYD game is OSU Utah rematch or whomever USCs opponent is in their CCG. Alabama vs KSU would make for a crappy Sugar Bowl for ratings, but I think that would be an exciting matchup personally. It just might be better to maximize the Bowl games to slide OSU behind Bama. I know the committee doesn't supposedly think like this, but the ESPN influence looms large. If you ask me, ESPN execs would prefer a UGa Bama rematch, because they didn't play this year, and that's likely to provide the most competitive game. USC can put an end to all of this by just winning, as can TCU.

(11-27-2022 01:00 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 10:43 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  The Committee's job is to find the four best teams. If Alabama played Ohio State's schedule and Ohio State played Alabama's schedule, what would their records be? It's obviously a moot point, but based on what I saw yesterday I don't imaging Ohio State winning two out of @ Texas, @LSU, @Tennessee, and @Ole Miss.

Is that the question though? Given Alabama’s schedule I’d expect Alabama to go 11-1 (or better)… but they went 10-2. They may be better than their record indicates… but they still lost those games. It’s like those Pete Carroll teams that were Top 2 on the field but always managed to lose an extra game.

Alabama went 10-2, got gifted a win over Texas by the officials, and went to the last play against aTm.

Ohio State is going to be 5th ….

Coaches poll:
1. Georgia 1572
2. Michigan 1512
3. TCU 1446
4. USC 1381
5. Ohio St. 1312
6. Alabama 1262
7. Penn St. 1153
8. Tennessee 1143
9. Washington 1039
10.KSU 930
11.Clemson 900
12. Utah 872
13. LSU 845

14. FSU 736
15. Oregon 681
16. Oregon St. 613
17. UCLA 603
18. Tulane 558
19. Notre Dame 341
20. S. Carolina 299
21. Texas 292
22. N. Carolina 175
23. UCF 141
24. UTSA 127
25. Miss. St. 88

Bold are potential NY6 teams. Seems like that Tennessee's South Carolina loss is still bothering the coaches. Purdue could also qualify. They were #31.

(11-27-2022 01:28 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 01:00 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 10:43 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  The Committee's job is to find the four best teams. If Alabama played Ohio State's schedule and Ohio State played Alabama's schedule, what would their records be? It's obviously a moot point, but based on what I saw yesterday I don't imaging Ohio State winning two out of @ Texas, @LSU, @Tennessee, and @Ole Miss.

Is that the question though? Given Alabama’s schedule I’d expect Alabama to go 11-1 (or better)… but they went 10-2. They may be better than their record indicates… but they still lost those games. It’s like those Pete Carroll teams that were Top 2 on the field but always managed to lose an extra game.

Alabama went 10-2, got gifted a win over Texas by the officials, and went to the last play against aTm.

My point moreso being that rankings don't ONLY look at who "should" win, but also who "has" won. ESPN thinks Texas is the #6 "best" team this year... but nobody expects them to be ranked that high.

Alabama has no business being in the conversation. You put Alabama's resume on any mid level P5 program and they aren't even being brought up for discussion. Multiple losses, no division/conference championship, no quality wins their best win is what on the road against a 4 loss Texas team that played the majority of the game without its starting QB or a 4 loss Ole Miss or Miss St team that the best win between them is Troy? On top of that one of their golden losses is being devalued as LSU is going to end up a 4 loss team itself.

(11-27-2022 09:09 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 08:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  My top 6:

1) Georgia
2) Michigan (very close, could be #1)
3) TCU
4) USC
5) Alabama
6) Ohio State

You guys who say "Ohio State lost one game, Alabama two" are IMO being too clinical about it. You're missing how badly Ohio State got rolled over and how bad IMO that looked in front of probably 15 million viewers.

Ohio State just doesn't pass the smell test. They got trucked, flattened, at home. Alabama lost two games at the buzzer on the road.

Ohio State got *exposed*. Nobody has exposed Alabama.

But both IMO will need help. If TCU and USC win their CCGs, neither is making the playoffs.

We'll see.

I think you and I are the only posters here that see this the same way... a home blowout loss is baaaaadddd vs two tight road losses. I think OSU has enough there to stay ahead, but it's a coin flip. I wonder how the ESPN bias will factor into influencing the committee. They can definitely tolerate two SEC teams in. Two B1G teams is a much harder sell. Especially OSU in the Peach Bowl. They'd be steam rolled.

Michigan is a much better team than either Tennessee or LSU, and Alabama also had buzzer beater wins vs Texas (due to bad officiating) and a bad aTm team.

(11-27-2022 01:43 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 01:28 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 01:00 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 10:43 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  The Committee's job is to find the four best teams. If Alabama played Ohio State's schedule and Ohio State played Alabama's schedule, what would their records be? It's obviously a moot point, but based on what I saw yesterday I don't imaging Ohio State winning two out of @ Texas, @LSU, @Tennessee, and @Ole Miss.

Is that the question though? Given Alabama’s schedule I’d expect Alabama to go 11-1 (or better)… but they went 10-2. They may be better than their record indicates… but they still lost those games. It’s like those Pete Carroll teams that were Top 2 on the field but always managed to lose an extra game.

Alabama went 10-2, got gifted a win over Texas by the officials, and went to the last play against aTm.

My point moreso being that rankings don't ONLY look at who "should" win, but also who "has" won. ESPN thinks Texas is the #6 "best" team this year... but nobody expects them to be ranked that high.

FPI has Alabama #2 last I checked.


Alabama's only real argument is that they're better than they've actually played this year. That's probably true, but that's still probably the singly lamest argument any team could possibly cite to argue that they should be in the CFP.

(11-27-2022 01:39 PM)bullet Wrote:  Coaches poll:
1. Georgia 1572
2. Michigan 1512
3. TCU 1446
4. USC 1381
5. Ohio St. 1312
6. Alabama 1262
7. Penn St. 1153
8. Tennessee 1143
9. Washington 1039
10.KSU 930
11.Clemson 900
12. Utah 872
13. LSU 845

14. FSU 736
15. Oregon 681
16. Oregon St. 613
17. UCLA 603
18. Tulane 558
19. Notre Dame 341
20. S. Carolina 299
21. Texas 292
22. N. Carolina 175
23. UCF 141
24. UTSA 127
25. Miss. St. 88

Bold are potential NY6 teams. Seems like that Tennessee's South Carolina loss is still bothering the coaches. Purdue could also qualify. They were #31.

The AP list came out today.

https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college...m=featured

Here's the top 12:

Quote:1 Georgia (12-0) SEC 1,570 (58)
2 Michigan (12-0) Big Ten 1,516 (5)
3 TCU (12-0) Big 12 1449
4 USC (11-1) Pac-12 1382
5 Ohio State (11-1) Big Ten 1313
6 Alabama (10-2) SEC 1243
7 Tennessee (10-2) SEC 1195
8 Penn State (10-2) Big Ten 1131
9 Washington (10-2) Pac-12 1048
10 Clemson (10-2) ACC 928
11 LSU (9-3) SEC 874
12 Utah (9-3) Pac-12 849

(11-27-2022 11:33 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 11:09 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  Disagree. The SEC is very down this year. There’s Georgia in a bunch of frankly mediocre teams that would struggle to finish in the top four of the Big Ten. I would put Ohio State Michigan and Penn State ahead of any non-Georgia team this year. There are no stand out teams in the west, but a bunch of solid teams that we compete in the SEC this year.

The Big Ten's best win of the season is Ohio State over Notre Dame. Can you find the Big Ten's second-best win for me?

Whatever that win is, compare to South Carolina over Clemson, Kentucky over Louisville, A&M over Miami, Florida over Utah, or Arkansas over Cincinnati.

Those are five SEC teams that couldn't get over .500 in conference but all have better wins than 13 of the Big Ten's programs.

Notre Dame destroyed Clemson. Louisville? Miami? Cincy?? if you’re holding them up as big wins, you know you’ve lost the argument. Florida barely beat Utah on the road. First game of the season.

You’ve done nothing to bolster your case

Tulane is ranked ahead of Notre Dame.

Give that a second thought.

(11-27-2022 02:10 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  Tulane is ranked ahead of Notre Dame.

Give that a second thought.

Notre Dame lost to Marshall and 3-9 Stanford. How is that any worse than Tulane's losses?

The committee has never picked a 2-loss team for the CFP. Alabama has two losses. Ergo, they appear ineligible for the CFP. OSU has one loss. Ergo, they are eligible. It would be stupid to rank an ineligible team ahead of an eligible one, so OSU will be ranked ahead of Bama.

USC won their rivalry game, beat Notre Dame as my Buckeyes did, and their loss was by 1 point away to a top 20 team, not a multiple score loss at home, so I 'd put them ahead of the Buckeyes, even before looking at how the Buckeyes chances were hurt by ill-disciplined play and justified unsportsmanlike conduct calls, so supposing Georgia, TCU, That School Up North and USC all take care of business in the CCG, I'd set it at #1 Georgia vs #4 USC, #2 That School Up North vs #3 TCU (Go Horny Toads).

For the understudy spot, you can't give it based on how good the team ought to be, or else why play the games? If Tennessee hadn't performed its traditional stumble in a trap game, I'd set them as clear #5 ahead of a much weaker than normal Clemson side (though the committee would likely have ignored the supposed conference championship tie breaker and put a non-division 11-1 Tennessee ahead of a conference champion 12-1 USC). So Ohio State or Tennessee #5, the other #6, Bama #7.