Some of my thoughts:

ACC (subset) 7: Gathering makes sense for political reason if they want a bigger share through unequal revenue distribution

Big 12 target tiers:
1) C4
2) SDSU and UNLV
3) Memphis, UConn (potentially not football) and Gonzaga

UO & UW: No money for the BIG to add them. A lot of people (including me) were expecting the BIG will not expand at this point.

(05-15-2023 10:34 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 10:29 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 09:56 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 09:54 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  So, much to chew on in Ross' fine article:

No. 1: Who are the Greedy 7 that "subset of seven ACC schools that has coalesced over what many of them describe as an untenable situation" as Ross characterizes the situation?

Dellinger gives us four:
1. FSU
2. Clemson
3. Miami
4. UNC (so much to unpack here )

We also know it's not the "We're Just Happy To Be Here 3" aka BC, Syracuse and Wake.

It also seems very unlikely the part-timers at ND are sitting in on these discussions since their long-term (or maybe it's near-term) mission is unlikely to line up with those of FSU, Clemson, et al. Can't imagine the Dookies asking for a seat at this table, either.

So that leaves us with ...

5. UVA?
6. Virginia Tech?
7. NC State?

Or perhaps a Georgia Tech, a Louisville or a Pitt is in the mix instead?

Fascinating stuff ....

I wouldn't rule out Notre Dame as one of the 7. They'd want to be involved in shaping their destiny and getting their Big Ten (or I guess SEC) spot

I don't think ND is in this group because they are simply complete unvarnished fanatics about independence.

If there's going to be a two-conference breakaway, which tearing up the ACC points to, that may meet Notre Dame's conditions for dropping independence.

1. Championship access. There is no CFP contract past 2025.
2. Television network. No NBC contract past 2025.
3. Financial viability. Again, no TV contract past 2025.

But I don't think the ACC-7 is about a new league. I think it's about jsut breaking the ACC so that the ACC-7 can get Super Two invites.

Ain't nobody getting SEC / Big Ten money but the SEC and the Big Ten.

So you could be right, the ACC-7 could be a Zany Scheme ™ that will crash and burn on the rocks of one reality or another.

They should have asked us first. :Biggrin:

I think FSU and Clemson would prefer that, but UNC is really the school with the power because they is the one school that has it all: brand name, market, academics, recruiting area, etc. They are to the ACC what Texas was to the Big 12 in the sense that every P5 league in the country would take them using whether the focus is on athletics, markets or academics. I would also call Duke more like Oklahoma than Texas Tech in terms of leverage, too, so a UNC/Duke pairing is particularly powerful in setting the agenda.

So, it wouldn't shock me at all that the strong UNC/Duke desire would be to have a separate league that they could effectively run just like they did with the old ACC. The institutional leaders at UNC and Duke will perpetually have issues with the academic perception of the SEC while UNC's T-shirt fan base may never warm to the Big Ten. (I don't think the Duke fan base would have the same issue with the B1G.) Essentially, I believe that UNC, Duke and UVA still want the aspects that they want from the ACC ("wine and cheese" Mid-Atlantic as opposed to the Deep South of the SEC or the North of the Big Ten) with more money.

Now, to obviously caveat all of this, Dellenger pointed out that this doesn't mean that the GOR can be dissolved, the legal aspects can just be wished away, etc.

(05-15-2023 09:20 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 09:12 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 09:02 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 08:50 AM)CFBLurker Wrote:  The reality where the ACC 7 break off to form a new league would be insane.

What I'm not clear on is who the 7 are, besides FSU and Clemson. Maybe UNC, Duke, UVA, VT, and Miami?

Don't forget ND...

From the article:

Quote:A subset of seven schools in the 14-member conference has coalesced over what many of them describe as an untenable situation. Officials from the seven schools, led by Florida State and Clemson, have met a handful of times over the last several months, with their lawyers examining the grant-of-rights to determine just how unbreakable it is.

I took this to mean Notre Dame was not included.

ND could very well be on board if they pull it off. The ACC is a 15-school league and Dellenger is counting only the football members. Mr Swarbrick has expressed his own concerns, as we see.

(05-15-2023 10:49 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 09:20 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 09:12 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 09:02 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 08:50 AM)CFBLurker Wrote:  The reality where the ACC 7 break off to form a new league would be insane.

What I'm not clear on is who the 7 are, besides FSU and Clemson. Maybe UNC, Duke, UVA, VT, and Miami?

Don't forget ND...

From the article:

Quote:A subset of seven schools in the 14-member conference has coalesced over what many of them describe as an untenable situation. Officials from the seven schools, led by Florida State and Clemson, have met a handful of times over the last several months, with their lawyers examining the grant-of-rights to determine just how unbreakable it is.

I took this to mean Notre Dame was not included.

"14 member conference" - I missed that.

I wonder if it's a typo? Because the ACC has 15 members.

It's not a typo. Absolutely no one in the know includes (or should include) ND in these discussions. They are independent, independent, and more INDEPENDENT for what matters here in terms of conference formation.

The ACC has 14 football members. The fact that ND is technically the 15th "full member" of the ACC is irrelevant because it's a football conference discussion and ND is 100% independent on that front. No more and no less.

(05-15-2023 11:57 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 10:49 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 09:20 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 09:12 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 09:02 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  What I'm not clear on is who the 7 are, besides FSU and Clemson. Maybe UNC, Duke, UVA, VT, and Miami?

Don't forget ND...

From the article:

Quote:A subset of seven schools in the 14-member conference has coalesced over what many of them describe as an untenable situation. Officials from the seven schools, led by Florida State and Clemson, have met a handful of times over the last several months, with their lawyers examining the grant-of-rights to determine just how unbreakable it is.

I took this to mean Notre Dame was not included.

"14 member conference" - I missed that.

I wonder if it's a typo? Because the ACC has 15 members.

It's not a typo. Absolutely no one in the know includes (or should include) ND in these discussions. They are independent, independent, and more INDEPENDENT for what matters here in terms of conference formation.

The ACC has 14 football members. The fact that ND is technically the 15th "full member" of the ACC is irrelevant because it's a football conference discussion and ND is 100% independent on that front. No more and no less.

ok, so, with great apologies, you are completely incorrect.

The ACC is a 15 member conference.

this is about membership in the conference. ND has a vote on that.

They only have to leave the room for fb votes. (See 2.12)

https://virginiatech.sportswar.com/wp-co...9-17-2.pdf

So yes, I think it was either an unfortunate mis-phrasing or a typo.

If the vote came up today whether to dissolve the ACC - Notre Dame would get a vote on that. Not 20% of a vote.

I don’t see what is so revelatory about this piece other than the assertion that the cohort of ACC schools looking for an out is specifically 7, and that a new conference is a consideration.

The first part is not so earth-shattering because anyone could surmise that there would be a number somewhere between 2 and 12 looking for an out with better long term financial prospects outside the ACC.

The mention of a new conference is sort of intriguing. While some people have postulated that whichever M-level conference gets set up in the TV rights rodeo will eventually absorb the leftbehinds of the other M-level conferences, I think it’s clear that the PAC, B12, and ACC all carry some excess that wouldn’t make a “best-of” cut.

7 is clearly not enough for a new conference, but in this odd (and highly improbable) scenario, who else do the 7 associate with? As much fun as trying to guess the 7.

How about:
FSU, GT, Clemson, UNC, UVA, Pitt, Syracuse
UW, UO, Cal, Stanford, CU, UU, ASU.

Buy out the other 7 and push them to the B12 while turning the ACC into a balanced E-W conference with minimal market redundancy in order to maximize the costing ACCN distributions.

(05-15-2023 08:50 AM)CFBLurker Wrote:  The reality where the ACC 7 break off to form a new league would be insane.

I expect the ultimate intention of the 7 is to leverage their newfound standing to negotiate admission as a group to a P2 conference.

Imagine you're the B1G or SEC. 7 prime ACC programs say 'We're yours as soon as you say the word.' And you know they're saying the same thing to the one other conference you have to worry about... You'll get your media partner on the phone and see what can be arranged. If you're in this to win this.

You're not only interested in adding these schools. You're also interested in keeping the other conference from adding these schools.

(05-15-2023 12:07 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 11:57 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 10:49 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 09:20 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 09:12 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  Don't forget ND...

From the article:

Quote:A subset of seven schools in the 14-member conference has coalesced over what many of them describe as an untenable situation. Officials from the seven schools, led by Florida State and Clemson, have met a handful of times over the last several months, with their lawyers examining the grant-of-rights to determine just how unbreakable it is.

I took this to mean Notre Dame was not included.

"14 member conference" - I missed that.

I wonder if it's a typo? Because the ACC has 15 members.

It's not a typo. Absolutely no one in the know includes (or should include) ND in these discussions. They are independent, independent, and more INDEPENDENT for what matters here in terms of conference formation.

The ACC has 14 football members. The fact that ND is technically the 15th "full member" of the ACC is irrelevant because it's a football conference discussion and ND is 100% independent on that front. No more and no less.

ok, so, with great apologies, you are completely incorrect.

The ACC is a 15 member conference.

this is about membership in the conference. ND has a vote on that.

They only have to leave the room for fb votes. (See 2.12)

https://virginiatech.sportswar.com/wp-co...9-17-2.pdf

So yes, I think it was either an unfortunate mis-phrasing or a typo.

If the vote came up today whether to dissolve the ACC - Notre Dame would get a vote on that. Not 20% of a vote.

Ok - yes, I agree that ND has a vote to dissolve the ACC. So, yes, ND matters on that standpoint.

However, I think Dellenger is writing from the standpoint that ND clearly has zero involvement with these 7 ACC schools and it's about creating a football league (of which ND has zero interest in). Hence, the 14 football members of the ACC are who matter on that front. ND isn't mentioned once in this article other than Jack Swarbrick's old quote about the Big Ten and SEC becoming superpowers.

(05-15-2023 12:07 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 11:57 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 10:49 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 09:20 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 09:12 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  Don't forget ND...

From the article:

Quote:A subset of seven schools in the 14-member conference has coalesced over what many of them describe as an untenable situation. Officials from the seven schools, led by Florida State and Clemson, have met a handful of times over the last several months, with their lawyers examining the grant-of-rights to determine just how unbreakable it is.

I took this to mean Notre Dame was not included.

"14 member conference" - I missed that.

I wonder if it's a typo? Because the ACC has 15 members.

It's not a typo. Absolutely no one in the know includes (or should include) ND in these discussions. They are independent, independent, and more INDEPENDENT for what matters here in terms of conference formation.

The ACC has 14 football members. The fact that ND is technically the 15th "full member" of the ACC is irrelevant because it's a football conference discussion and ND is 100% independent on that front. No more and no less.

But what about the pesky GoR?

Notre Dame would prefer that things remain as they are.

If The Seven succeed in breaking the GOR or dissolving the league or whatever, Notre Dame will be okay. Either continuing as an independent and parking their nonfootball in the Big East, or in the rump ACC. Or joining the Big Ten or SEC as those two break away from the NCAA.

(05-15-2023 12:12 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  I don’t see what is so revelatory about this piece other than the assertion that the cohort of ACC schools looking for an out is specifically 7, and that a new conference is a consideration.

The first part is not so earth-shattering because anyone could surmise that there would be a number somewhere between 2 and 12 looking for an out with better long term financial prospects outside the ACC.

The mention of a new conference is sort of intriguing. While some people have postulated that whichever M-level conference gets set up in the TV rights rodeo will eventually absorb the leftbehinds of the other M-level conferences, I think it’s clear that the PAC, B12, and ACC all carry some excess that wouldn’t make a “best-of” cut.

7 is clearly not enough for a new conference, but in this odd (and highly improbable) scenario, who else do the 7 associate with? As much fun as trying to guess the 7.

How about:
FSU, GT, Clemson, UNC, UVA, Pitt, Syracuse
UW, UO, Cal, Stanford, CU, UU, ASU.

Buy out the other 7 and push them to the B12 while turning the ACC into a balanced E-W conference with minimal market redundancy in order to maximize the costing ACCN distributions.

I could see some of the PAC schools being interested, but I'd stick with our current poor ACC situation before signing up for that. I can't imagine it would move the needle enough on payouts.

(05-15-2023 12:17 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 12:07 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 11:57 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 10:49 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 09:20 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  From the article:


I took this to mean Notre Dame was not included.

"14 member conference" - I missed that.

I wonder if it's a typo? Because the ACC has 15 members.

It's not a typo. Absolutely no one in the know includes (or should include) ND in these discussions. They are independent, independent, and more INDEPENDENT for what matters here in terms of conference formation.

The ACC has 14 football members. The fact that ND is technically the 15th "full member" of the ACC is irrelevant because it's a football conference discussion and ND is 100% independent on that front. No more and no less.

ok, so, with great apologies, you are completely incorrect.

The ACC is a 15 member conference.

this is about membership in the conference. ND has a vote on that.

They only have to leave the room for fb votes. (See 2.12)

https://virginiatech.sportswar.com/wp-co...9-17-2.pdf

So yes, I think it was either an unfortunate mis-phrasing or a typo.

If the vote came up today whether to dissolve the ACC - Notre Dame would get a vote on that. Not 20% of a vote.

Ok - yes, I agree that ND has a vote to dissolve the ACC. So, yes, ND matters on that standpoint.

However, I think Dellenger is writing from the standpoint that ND clearly has zero involvement with these 7 ACC schools and it's about creating a football league (of which ND has zero interest in). Hence, the 14 football members of the ACC are who matter on that front. ND isn't mentioned once in this article other than Jack Swarbrick's old quote about the Big Ten and SEC becoming superpowers.

And on that point, I'm torn.

Because, in my estimation, ND is in one of 2 positions in regards to FSU:

a.) Here's your hat, let's see if we can help you out the door

b.) We both have different motivations and end goals in this, but let's work together to both go out the door

And so far reporting just simply has not made that any clearer.

(05-15-2023 09:12 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  ....
And wow - this article pretty much confirms many theories from this board (while shutting down a hoard of others).

I've re-read it a couple times, and it's the gift that keeps on giving.

The scenario where all the ACC schools sit quietly and eat their vegetables until 2036 because a GoR is a GoR... That's pretty obviously out for the count.

Hi, Frank.

(05-15-2023 12:24 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 09:12 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  ....
And wow - this article pretty much confirms many theories from this board (while shutting down a hoard of others).

I've re-read it a couple times, and it's the gift that keeps on giving.

The scenario where all the ACC schools sit quietly and eat their vegetables until 2036 because a GoR is a GoR... That's pretty obviously out for the count.

Hi, Frank.

And others to be named when the deal goes down! I know they've got their mea culpas are already written. Including exceptions and limitations.

IMO, none of this matters. In around 10 years, there will be a P3, the SEC, B1G, and the best of the rest from the Pac, Big 12, and ACC. Schools like Wake Forest, Boston College, Texas Tech, TCU, AZ St, Washington St will all be left out, and regulated to basically a step above mid major status

(05-15-2023 08:45 AM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  How do the Big 12, Pac-12 and ACC keep up while generating millions less than the SEC and Big Ten? Some believe all three of them cannot co-exist successfully.

Ross Dellenger of Sports Illustrated reports.
....

https://www.si.com/college/2023/05/15/co...onferences

Informative article. Thanks for posting.

(05-15-2023 12:29 PM)SouthernBoiNOLA Wrote:  IMO, none of this matters. In around 10 years, there will be a P3, the SEC, B1G, and the best of the rest from the Pac, Big 12, and ACC. Schools like Wake Forest, Boston College, Texas Tech, TCU, AZ St, Washington St will all be left out, and regulated to basically a step above mid major status

How soon it happens matters to many of us here. We don't want to wait until 2030 let alone 2036. For many reasons!

(05-15-2023 12:24 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 09:12 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  ....
And wow - this article pretty much confirms many theories from this board (while shutting down a hoard of others).

I've re-read it a couple times, and it's the gift that keeps on giving.

The scenario where all the ACC schools sit quietly and eat their vegetables until 2036 because a GoR is a GoR... That's pretty obviously out for the count.

Hi, Frank.

Look - all ACC schools can explore all of their options and hire all of their lawyers and financial advisors. I know that process well.

At the end of the day, though, it still comes down to whether whoever leaves the ACC is willing to risk hundreds of millions in damages each to whoever is left behind. It's not an exaggeration that the resulting litigation fallout could take until 2030 even if the "Group of 7" announces that they're leaving tomorrow. This wouldn't go down like an exit fee negotiation - it's more of the conference equivalent of the Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates divorces because there's a lot of ambiguity about what's allowed under the ACC by-laws and whether the dissolution of the conference actually dissolves the GOR or the rights of the signatories to continue to enforce the GOR.

(05-15-2023 12:30 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 08:45 AM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  How do the Big 12, Pac-12 and ACC keep up while generating millions less than the SEC and Big Ten? Some believe all three of them cannot co-exist successfully.

Ross Dellenger of Sports Illustrated reports.
....

https://www.si.com/college/2023/05/15/co...onferences

Informative article. Thanks for posting.

Hooah! My expectation is this board will be on fire all summer with realignment news.

(05-15-2023 12:20 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  I could see some of the PAC schools being interested, but I'd stick with our current poor ACC situation before signing up for that. I can't imagine it would move the needle enough on payouts.

It shouldn’t take that much imagination.

The ACCN currently splits an in-footprint population of 96M 14 ways.

In this configuration the ACCN would split an in-footprint population of 167M 14 ways. Looking at roughly a 75% increase in ACCN revenue with this configuration.

(05-15-2023 12:24 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 09:12 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  ....
And wow - this article pretty much confirms many theories from this board (while shutting down a hoard of others).

I've re-read it a couple times, and it's the gift that keeps on giving.

The scenario where all the ACC schools sit quietly and eat their vegetables until 2036 because a GoR is a GoR... That's pretty obviously out for the count.

Hi, Frank.

Or you find out you can bang your spoon on the table and throw your food on the floor but a GOR is still a GOR and you ain't going nowhere for about 10 years