Note: this doesn't mean its happening, but they do "discuss it frequently."


Brett McMurphy
@Brett_McMurphy
·
11h
ACC's Jim Phillips on end game w/conferences: "There's been conference expansion & retraction in schools moving from one conference to the next. I don't think that changes. The cycle is connected to media rights. National championships are great when you have multiple leagues… Show more
Brett McMurphy
@Brett_McMurphy
·
11h
ACC's Jim Phillips if the league is considering expansion: "We have to look at every option from Day 1. We discuss it frequently"

(05-17-2023 09:34 PM)bullet Wrote:  Note: this doesn't mean its happening, but they do "discuss it frequently."


Brett McMurphy
@Brett_McMurphy
·
11h
ACC's Jim Phillips on end game w/conferences: "There's been conference expansion & retraction in schools moving from one conference to the next. I don't think that changes. The cycle is connected to media rights. National championships are great when you have multiple leagues… Show more
Brett McMurphy
@Brett_McMurphy
·
11h
ACC's Jim Phillips if the league is considering expansion: "We have to look at every option from Day 1. We discuss it frequently"

If the ACC lost 4 schools and merged with the 10 PAC schools for 4 divisions of 5 with just a game between East and West coast schools they could play 10 P games, mostly stay on their side of the States and meet for tourneys and have 2 buy games to keep 7 on the home schedule.

ESPN could move Florida State and Clemson to the SEC with N.C. State and Virginia Tech, and preserve their whole market except for South Carolina. They would pick up nearly 90 million potential households for the ACCN on the West Coast and the sub money would be strong. The two conferences would compliment one another. ESPN now sells the SECN in Virginia and North Carolina and the SEC picks up another Florida school which is a need and Clemson as a content multiplier.

ESPN lands even more product.

The problem is will be getting the payouts much above 40 million, but the ACCN could exceed the SECN in revenues with that lineup. If so maybe they make 10 more for T3.

Since USCLA news, Jim Phillips has never denied the possbility of an expansion. This has been a very frequent topic on the ACC board.

But for some reason, people seems to think any ACC expansion is a complete non starter while the B12 raiding the Pac is a clear possibility.

I don’t get it.

(05-17-2023 10:38 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Since USCLA news, Jim Phillips has never denied the possbility of an expansion. This has been a very frequent topic on the ACC board.

But for some reason, people seems to think any ACC expansion is a complete non starter while the B12 raiding the Pac is a clear possibility.

I don’t get it.

Well, anything new is a threat to the status quo. Tobacco Road is eyebrow deep in status quo. They like it the way it was, the way it is, and that is the way it should be.

I imagine any ACC expansion talks would revolve around Memphis, USF, Temple, UConn, and Tulane. Those seem like the obvious frontrunners to me, if they're ever needed by the ACC.

(05-17-2023 10:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-17-2023 10:38 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Since USCLA news, Jim Phillips has never denied the possbility of an expansion. This has been a very frequent topic on the ACC board.

But for some reason, people seems to think any ACC expansion is a complete non starter while the B12 raiding the Pac is a clear possibility.

I don’t get it.

Well, anything new is a threat to the status quo. Tobacco Road is eyebrow deep in status quo. They like it the way it was, the way it is, and that is the way it should be.

That’s true.

But even Tobacco Road is changing. UNC breaking from Duke and joining the M7 should be the revelation.

(05-17-2023 10:46 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(05-17-2023 10:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-17-2023 10:38 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Since USCLA news, Jim Phillips has never denied the possbility of an expansion. This has been a very frequent topic on the ACC board.

But for some reason, people seems to think any ACC expansion is a complete non starter while the B12 raiding the Pac is a clear possibility.

I don’t get it.

Well, anything new is a threat to the status quo. Tobacco Road is eyebrow deep in status quo. They like it the way it was, the way it is, and that is the way it should be.

That’s true.

But even Tobacco Road is changing. UNC breaking from Duke and joining the M7 should be the revelation.

I don't think they did. Duke's a sleeper. They'll have a home in the Big 10, might decide for an all but football route with the SEC, or could simply join the Ivy League, which wouldn't hurt their basketball. I don't think Duke hangs around if Virginia and UNC bail. Besides the SEC still has a slot. Everyone loves their academics. Duke just didn't need to speak. Neither did Notre Dame.

It's clear that the networks value the big 12 and ACC much more than they value the Pac. I know that Fox could throw a kink into the works, but I still think that a Big 12 - ACC mashup with a few going to the SEC is the most likely move to keep the revenues very high, or higher, for everybody. The one kink is if UW/UO get strongly rebuffed by the B1G and are certain that they have no chance of joining until 2036. In that scenario, they could probably get as much or more from the ACC than they could get from the big 12 over the next 13 years, and they might be willing and able to bring some current pac schools with them. I do think that the 4c would prefer the big 12 in this scenario b/c of proximity, but maybe Utah goes with the Northern Pac schools? This could lead to a solid P2/M2 breakdown, which might very well end up being more stable than a P2/C1 concept.

edit: the thing that I always circle back to in the event of schools escaping the ACC is that it's VERY unlikely that the SEC grabs 2/4/6/+ schools from the ACC while the B1G sits on their hands and do nothing. I'm certain that any sort of big ACC move would immediately lead to invites for at least UW/UO by the B1G, which leads us back to a big 12/ACC combination, with perhaps most or all of the leftover Pac schools tagging along, too.

I struggle to imagine who the ACC could expand with that wouldn't decrease the per-school value of the conference. My USF is an example. There's nobody out there that is P - level.

(05-17-2023 11:10 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I struggle to imagine who the ACC could expand with that wouldn't decrease the per-school value of the conference. My USF is an example. There's nobody out there that is P - level.

Quo, that very issue is the fuel for the panic. They've realized in the East and the West that there are only 2 ways out and no real option to stay. It has advanced relatively swifty, and this is why there is a better chance for consensus break up. They all now know that waiting is much worse than being proactive. First class lifeboats are away. Now there are only so many slots, and no first class stragglers to pick up.

(05-17-2023 11:10 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I struggle to imagine who the ACC could expand with that wouldn't decrease the per-school value of the conference. My USF is an example. There's nobody out there that is P - level.

UO, UW, and Stanford will clearly increase the value. ASU and Utah would be at least revenue neutral.

(05-17-2023 10:43 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  I imagine any ACC expansion talks would revolve around Memphis, USF, Temple, UConn, and Tulane. Those seem like the obvious frontrunners to me, if they're ever needed by the ACC.

ODU, Buffalo and UAB could be on the table. ODU could replace one of the Virginia schools. Shoot, even Georgia State could replace Georgia Tech.

(05-17-2023 11:04 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  It's clear that the networks value the big 12 and ACC much more than they value the Pac. I know that Fox could throw a kink into the works, but I still think that a Big 12 - ACC mashup with a few going to the SEC is the most likely move to keep the revenues very high, or higher, for everybody. The one kink is if UW/UO get strongly rebuffed by the B1G and are certain that they have no chance of joining until 2036. In that scenario, they could probably get as much or more from the ACC than they could get from the big 12 over the next 13 years, and they might be willing and able to bring some current pac schools with them. I do think that the 4c would prefer the big 12 in this scenario b/c of proximity, but maybe Utah goes with the Northern Pac schools? This could lead to a solid P2/M2 breakdown, which might very well end up being more stable than a P2/C1 concept.

edit: the thing that I always circle back to in the event of schools escaping the ACC is that it's VERY unlikely that the SEC grabs 2/4/6/+ schools from the ACC while the B1G sits on their hands and do nothing. I'm certain that any sort of big ACC move would immediately lead to invites for at least UW/UO by the B1G, which leads us back to a big 12/ACC combination, with perhaps most or all of the leftover Pac schools tagging along, too.

I don’t think the BIG wants UO and UW to join the ACC.

“Blood on their hand” theory is a complete nonsense in my opinion.

”I’m told that the Big Ten and FOX do not want to have blood on their hands for being the reason the Pac-12 blew up. In a way, they’re sitting back and waiting to see what happens with Colorado or Arizona. If they leave for the Big 12, that opens the flood gates,” McMurphy added.

But I am sure McMurphy was really told that story and this would deter UO and UW from signing a long term GoR with the ACC.

(05-17-2023 11:34 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(05-17-2023 11:04 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  It's clear that the networks value the big 12 and ACC much more than they value the Pac. I know that Fox could throw a kink into the works, but I still think that a Big 12 - ACC mashup with a few going to the SEC is the most likely move to keep the revenues very high, or higher, for everybody. The one kink is if UW/UO get strongly rebuffed by the B1G and are certain that they have no chance of joining until 2036. In that scenario, they could probably get as much or more from the ACC than they could get from the big 12 over the next 13 years, and they might be willing and able to bring some current pac schools with them. I do think that the 4c would prefer the big 12 in this scenario b/c of proximity, but maybe Utah goes with the Northern Pac schools? This could lead to a solid P2/M2 breakdown, which might very well end up being more stable than a P2/C1 concept.

edit: the thing that I always circle back to in the event of schools escaping the ACC is that it's VERY unlikely that the SEC grabs 2/4/6/+ schools from the ACC while the B1G sits on their hands and do nothing. I'm certain that any sort of big ACC move would immediately lead to invites for at least UW/UO by the B1G, which leads us back to a big 12/ACC combination, with perhaps most or all of the leftover Pac schools tagging along, too.

I don’t think the BIG wants UO and UW to join the ACC.

“Blood on their hand” theory is a complete nonsense in my opinion.

”I’m told that the Big Ten and FOX do not want to have blood on their hands for being the reason the Pac-12 blew up. In a way, they’re sitting back and waiting to see what happens with Colorado or Arizona. If they leave for the Big 12, that opens the flood gates,” McMurphy added.

But I am sure McMurphy was really told that story and this would deter UO and UW from signing a long term GoR with the ACC.

The B1G, more than most Conferences, is controlled by the Presidents. Nearly half of them will be retired/replaced in the next 3 years, and they just got a new commissioner a couple weeks ago. THEY don't know what they want, so there's no way that UO/UW know what they want. UO/UW just want to get a reasonable media rights deal for now and keep their options open for the future.

McMurphy's story about the B1G possibly looking at them again if CU or UArizona join the big 12 could make it impossible for Kliavkoff to get a deal put together. Anything less than $75m and UO/UW have a strong incentive to sabotage things 6 ways from Sunday.

(05-18-2023 01:14 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(05-17-2023 11:34 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(05-17-2023 11:04 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  It's clear that the networks value the big 12 and ACC much more than they value the Pac. I know that Fox could throw a kink into the works, but I still think that a Big 12 - ACC mashup with a few going to the SEC is the most likely move to keep the revenues very high, or higher, for everybody. The one kink is if UW/UO get strongly rebuffed by the B1G and are certain that they have no chance of joining until 2036. In that scenario, they could probably get as much or more from the ACC than they could get from the big 12 over the next 13 years, and they might be willing and able to bring some current pac schools with them. I do think that the 4c would prefer the big 12 in this scenario b/c of proximity, but maybe Utah goes with the Northern Pac schools? This could lead to a solid P2/M2 breakdown, which might very well end up being more stable than a P2/C1 concept.

edit: the thing that I always circle back to in the event of schools escaping the ACC is that it's VERY unlikely that the SEC grabs 2/4/6/+ schools from the ACC while the B1G sits on their hands and do nothing. I'm certain that any sort of big ACC move would immediately lead to invites for at least UW/UO by the B1G, which leads us back to a big 12/ACC combination, with perhaps most or all of the leftover Pac schools tagging along, too.

I don’t think the BIG wants UO and UW to join the ACC.

“Blood on their hand” theory is a complete nonsense in my opinion.

”I’m told that the Big Ten and FOX do not want to have blood on their hands for being the reason the Pac-12 blew up. In a way, they’re sitting back and waiting to see what happens with Colorado or Arizona. If they leave for the Big 12, that opens the flood gates,” McMurphy added.

But I am sure McMurphy was really told that story and this would deter UO and UW from signing a long term GoR with the ACC.

The B1G, more than most Conferences, is controlled by the Presidents. Nearly half of them will be retired/replaced in the next 3 years, and they just got a new commissioner a couple weeks ago. THEY don't know what they want, so there's no way that UO/UW know what they want. UO/UW just want to get a reasonable media rights deal for now and keep their options open for the future.

McMurphy's story about the B1G possibly looking at them again if CU or UArizona join the big 12 could make it impossible for Kliavkoff to get a deal put together. Anything less than $75m and UO/UW have a strong incentive to sabotage things 6 ways from Sunday.

You left out an overlooked facet. When the SEC gets ready to expand ESPN is the only partner consulted. It's easier to make a decision and to keep it quiet. The Big 10 is flying with a rookie pilot and 3 copilots (CBS, NBC, FOX). I can tell you that CBS was a pain in the butt to deal with for Slive and Sankey. I can't imagine how difficult it is for the Big 10 commissioner to lineup not only presidents but get the consent of 3 networks. That gets lost in the shuffle but impacts everything realignment related.

(05-17-2023 10:38 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Since USCLA news, Jim Phillips has never denied the possbility of an expansion. This has been a very frequent topic on the ACC board.

But for some reason, people seems to think any ACC expansion is a complete non starter while the B12 raiding the Pac is a clear possibility.

I don’t get it.

I’ve explained it before. If you’re talking strictly about adding teams vs backfilling (perhaps adding more at the same time)…the 3/4 majority votes won’t be there for any school currently on the table. Backfill mode? You betcha.

(05-17-2023 10:24 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-17-2023 09:34 PM)bullet Wrote:  Note: this doesn't mean its happening, but they do "discuss it frequently."


Brett McMurphy
@Brett_McMurphy
·
11h
ACC's Jim Phillips on end game w/conferences: "There's been conference expansion & retraction in schools moving from one conference to the next. I don't think that changes. The cycle is connected to media rights. National championships are great when you have multiple leagues… Show more
Brett McMurphy
@Brett_McMurphy
·
11h
ACC's Jim Phillips if the league is considering expansion: "We have to look at every option from Day 1. We discuss it frequently"

If the ACC lost 4 schools and merged with the 10 PAC schools for 4 divisions of 5 with just a game between East and West coast schools they could play 10 P games, mostly stay on their side of the States and meet for tourneys and have 2 buy games to keep 7 on the home schedule.

ESPN could move Florida State and Clemson to the SEC with N.C. State and Virginia Tech, and preserve their whole market except for South Carolina. They would pick up nearly 90 million potential households for the ACCN on the West Coast and the sub money would be strong. The two conferences would compliment one another. ESPN now sells the SECN in Virginia and North Carolina and the SEC picks up another Florida school which is a need and Clemson as a content multiplier.

ESPN lands even more product.

The problem is will be getting the payouts much above 40 million, but the ACCN could exceed the SECN in revenues with that lineup. If so maybe they make 10 more for T3.

ESPN loses too much value if FSU and Clemson leave the ACC now. It’s not worth the risk for ESPN.

That doesn’t mean that there isn’t a compromise available. Maybe
- only the top eight PAC properties merge (maximizes per school ACCN carriage for ESPN and keeps all the brands)
- FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVa, Duke, etc. have to remain in the ACC
- NC State and VT get a golden tickets to the SEC (allows ESPN to grow the SEC footprint).

ACC is a 20-team conference with 12 East, 8 West & a partial in the center. The media value could actually increase.

I was also surprised, back when the PAC looked doomed after UCLA and USC was leaked to go to the B10, that the ACC didn't immediately enter talks with Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and UCal. Four teams making a western division. ND wouldn't mind Stanford in olympic sports, and might keep the Irish tagging along with the ACC.

(05-18-2023 07:04 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(05-17-2023 10:24 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-17-2023 09:34 PM)bullet Wrote:  Note: this doesn't mean its happening, but they do "discuss it frequently."


Brett McMurphy
@Brett_McMurphy
·
11h
ACC's Jim Phillips on end game w/conferences: "There's been conference expansion & retraction in schools moving from one conference to the next. I don't think that changes. The cycle is connected to media rights. National championships are great when you have multiple leagues… Show more
Brett McMurphy
@Brett_McMurphy
·
11h
ACC's Jim Phillips if the league is considering expansion: "We have to look at every option from Day 1. We discuss it frequently"

If the ACC lost 4 schools and merged with the 10 PAC schools for 4 divisions of 5 with just a game between East and West coast schools they could play 10 P games, mostly stay on their side of the States and meet for tourneys and have 2 buy games to keep 7 on the home schedule.

ESPN could move Florida State and Clemson to the SEC with N.C. State and Virginia Tech, and preserve their whole market except for South Carolina. They would pick up nearly 90 million potential households for the ACCN on the West Coast and the sub money would be strong. The two conferences would compliment one another. ESPN now sells the SECN in Virginia and North Carolina and the SEC picks up another Florida school which is a need and Clemson as a content multiplier.

ESPN lands even more product.

The problem is will be getting the payouts much above 40 million, but the ACCN could exceed the SECN in revenues with that lineup. If so maybe they make 10 more for T3.

ESPN loses too much value if FSU and Clemson leave the ACC now. It’s not worth the risk for ESPN.

That doesn’t mean that there isn’t a compromise available. Maybe
- only the top eight PAC properties merge (maximizes per school ACCN carriage for ESPN and keeps all the brands)
- FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVa, Duke, etc. have to remain in the ACC
- NC State and VT get a golden tickets to the SEC (allows ESPN to grow the SEC footprint).

ACC is a 20-team conference with 12 East, 8 West & a partial in the center. The media value could actually increase.

That would fall in the extremely improbable range of the various scenarios. I can't imagine UNC, FSU, Clemson, Miami, Viriginia, etc would agree to that without an insane payout increase. You're talking about an even more dispersed conference with increased logistical problems and cost, continued issues with ticket sales, fan engagement and game day atmosphere. They would rather just close out the 13 years. And the SEC wouldn't likely be all that excited about the offer either. I'm not really buying the "golden ticket" concept in general.

(05-18-2023 07:08 AM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  I was also surprised, back when the PAC looked doomed after UCLA and USC was leaked to go to the B10, that the ACC didn't immediately enter talks with Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and UCal. Four teams making a western division. ND wouldn't mind Stanford in olympic sports, and might keep the Irish tagging along with the ACC.

I think everyone was expecting more schools to join USCLA. And then what that didn't happen, there was huge guess work going on with the remaining PAC10 valuations, anywhere from 20-40 million per school. Nobody knew how to properly value it without the LA market. That's why the ACC didn't make an immediate move. Were they all worth 40 million and counting?

What's likely to happen though, if Zona and CU move, and Yormark stops there, a bloc of Utah, Cal, Stanford, ASU will probably look at the ACC. I'm not sure how that would work exactly, but that's the most viable plan... assuming UO and UW follow USCLA.

Do I think the ACC grabs those schools? Yes, if ESPN asks them to do so. It's also just as like all 4C still find their way into the Big 12.

Barring PAC defections, the ACC should still try to poach UC and maybe a TCU or Houston. WVU is still the best value add, but it won't happen because of the Presidents.