Air Force could draw the ratings. A military school in the playoffs would draw viewers around the world from the military bases.

Alabama and LSU look like they want back into the playoff conversation. And the big board shows it. The SEC is now back into the playoff picture. LSU makes new appearances with a Top 4 spot 'possible' with only 10 wins; that Seminole loss is the gift that keeps on giving. And Georgia State isn't a bad OOC victory for the Tigers either; the Panthers even make the playoff 1 time in 10,000 sims.

North Carolina and the ACC fall to #5, with hopes pinned almost exclusively on Florida State running the table. While Clemson and Miami (and Notre Dame) were both in the "Sayin' there's a chance" category last week, the conference as a whole slipped, eliminating them.

The Big Ten West? Eliminated as well. Kansas State claws its way up a Tier to become a Long Shot, should they go 11-2. A 1-loss Pac Champ is still a Contender, but it is a mess trying to discover who that'll be. Air Force and JMU (*if there are 81 or fewer 6-win teams) sneak into the playoff in those collapse-of-civilization type scenarios.

My Gators even clock in at 26% chance of making the playoff at 11-2, but as that has <1% chance of happening, they too are relegated to the bottom tier. Here is to hoping they cause a little playoff chaos in Jacksonville next week. Kansas and Wisconsin won't be easy outs either, but I don't expect much to change between now and next week.

Oklahoma loses in a surprise, and a few teams move up. Big Ten and SEC teams with 1 loss inched up. The Big 12 also sees Kansas and OKSt enter the Sayin' There's A Chance category, reaching the playoffs 2 and 1 times (out of 10,000) respectively.

The Pac-12 ranks also thinned with Utah and Oregon State dropping their second games; Washington and Oregon are the 2 teams with strong playoff aspirations. The ACC also thinned with UNC dropping a second game, leaving Florida State as the only team with significant playoff hopes.

Only 4 power conferences have undefeated teams, so what is with them not getting 100%? Texas. The Longhorns have the schedule where they are Guaranteed a playoff spot even with 1 loss. Ohio State remains the only team able to lose once more and stay in the playoff race (provided they still win the East). The SEC teams not named Georgia ALSO enter this category. If Alabama or Ole Miss or Missouri finish 12-1, they 'could' provide an interesting alternative to 13-0 Florida State or Washington for the committee's #4 spot.

I don't pay any attention to fancy schmancy computer generated odds, but I will tell everyone who the best four teams are.

Georgia
Ohio State
Oregon
Florida State

Wake me up when Michigan does something without cheating. Them leaning on overmatched foes and knowing what plays those overmatched foes are going to run is child's play. I have more respect for at least 10-20 teams right now.

My first Playoff Projection this season:
https://www.offtackleempire.com/2023/10/...s-10-29-23

1. Michigan, 2. Georgia, 3. Florida State, 4. Oregon (will beat Washington in the Pac 12 rematch)

(10-29-2023 10:43 AM)Sparty Baby 84 Wrote:  I don't pay any attention to fancy schmancy computer generated odds, but I will tell everyone who the best four teams are.

Georgia
Ohio State
Oregon
Florida State

Wake me up when Michigan does something without cheating. Them leaning on overmatched foes and knowing what plays those overmatched foes are going to run is child's play. I have more respect for at least 10-20 teams right now.

How can Oregon be one of the four best if they lost to Washington (and Washington is undefeated)? At some point, on field performance matters.

The four best teams are
1 Ohio State
2 Florida State
3 Georgia
4 Washington

Looks like we are down to 10 realistic teams. The 11 P5 teams with 1 or fewer losses, minus the Cards (sorry!).

Playoff %
1) 82.45% Ohio St
2) 53.06% Texas
3) 50.61% Florida St
4) 48.86% Alabama
5) 42.8% Michigan
6) 42.02% Washington
7) 25.58% Georgia
8) 18.69% Ole Miss
9) 17.45% Penn State
10) 17.44% Oregon
11) 0.81% Louisville
12) 0.09% Oklahoma
13) 0.08% Utah
14) 0.02% Oregon St
15) 0.02% James Madison
16) 0.01% Tennessee
17) 0.01% Missouri

Hypothetical:

Ohio State or Michigan wins out
Florida State wins out
Washington wins out
Texas wins out
Alabama beats Georgia in Atlanta

Tell me how the SEC isn't out of the Playoff?

(11-05-2023 08:21 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Hypothetical:

Ohio State or Michigan wins out
Florida State wins out
Washington wins out
Texas wins out
Alabama beats Georgia in Atlanta

Tell me how the SEC isn't out of the Playoff?

Hmm... Florida State could end up with 1 Top 25 win (LSU) while Alabama has 4 (LSU, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Tennessee) plus a loss to a Top 4 team which almost doesn't even count as a loss. The Seminoles are definitely the most precarious undefeated team. Of course, for the real committee, 0 losses means a bit more than simply 1 fewer than 1.

(11-05-2023 08:37 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(11-05-2023 08:21 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Hypothetical:

Ohio State or Michigan wins out
Florida State wins out
Washington wins out
Texas wins out
Alabama beats Georgia in Atlanta

Tell me how the SEC isn't out of the Playoff?

Hmm... Florida State could end up with 1 Top 25 win (LSU) while Alabama has 4 (LSU, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Tennessee) plus a loss to a Top 4 team which almost doesn't even count as a loss. The Seminoles are definitely the most precarious undefeated team. Of course, for the real committee, 0 losses means a bit more than simply 1 fewer than 1.

This would be a nasty scenario. The CFP has got to hope its doesnt come to this. The solution is just around the corner, but its not here yet, and there would be some serious fallout if an undefeated FSU is left out. But then again, who would you leave out?

(11-05-2023 08:58 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(11-05-2023 08:37 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(11-05-2023 08:21 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Hypothetical:

Ohio State or Michigan wins out
Florida State wins out
Washington wins out
Texas wins out
Alabama beats Georgia in Atlanta

Tell me how the SEC isn't out of the Playoff?

Hmm... Florida State could end up with 1 Top 25 win (LSU) while Alabama has 4 (LSU, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Tennessee) plus a loss to a Top 4 team which almost doesn't even count as a loss. The Seminoles are definitely the most precarious undefeated team. Of course, for the real committee, 0 losses means a bit more than simply 1 fewer than 1.

This would be a nasty scenario. The CFP has got to hope its doesnt come to this. The solution is just around the corner, but its not here yet, and there would be some serious fallout if an undefeated FSU is left out. But then again, who would you leave out?

They didn't leave FSU out in 2014 and that FSU team was weaker than this one.
Of course, its a different committee.

Trying a new display method. These teams are ranked by their average Final Rank across 10,000 sims (or, at least the ones where they finish with this record. Absolute Rank is the lowest spot they can fall after mutually exclusive results (like OSU and UM both going 12-1) are filtered out.

AbsRnk (Record) (%Playoff, %Record)
#1 (13-0) OSU/UM (100%, 63%) & #3 (12-1) OSU (94%, 11%)
#2 (13-0) Washington (99%, 26%)
#3 (13-0/12-1) UGA/Bama (97%, 63%)
#4 (13-0) Florida St (89%, 56%)
#5 (12-1) Texas (87%, 58%)
#6 (11-1) Ohio St (73%, 47%)
#6b (12-1) UM/PSU (51%, 22%)
#7 (1-loss) Ole Miss (51%, 31%) [%Playoff leaps to 84% if 12-1]
#8 (11-1) UM/PSU (30%, 66%) [max 2 11-1 East teams]
#9 (12-1) UO/UW (43%, 79%) [Champ>Loser]
#10 (12-1/11-2) UGA/Bama (17%, 80%) [Champ>Loser]
These last 3 are all VERY likely and nicely wrap up the likely playoff teams.

An undefeated Florida State still sits in the #4 spot, but Texas is close behind. When two teams are adjacent in the rankings, tie-breaker goes to the team superior in 2 of 3 aspects (SOR, Record [champ trumps non-champ, h2h trumps record], and eye-test). Florida State cannot be bested on record so the only way 12-1 Texas or 11-1 Ohio State leaps them is if those teams have lots of style points (eye-test) AND a stronger Strength of Record (SOR).

SOR is mostly the above rankings, but teams can go up and down as the top teams on their schedule impress or implode. Florida State doesn't want LSU to lose any more, and it'd be nice if Louisville came into Charlotte 11-1. Eye-test is based on what people call point margin or style points and currently the 10 contenders are ranked thusly:

#1/#2 Michigan/Oregon
#3-6 PSU/OSU/Bama/FSU (all very close)
#7/#8 Georgia/Texas/(LSU)
#9/#10 Ole Miss/Washington/(Oklahoma)/(Notre Dame)/(Kansas St)

3 games (well, 4 for most contenders) can completely change the eye-test perception of these teams. Will teams struggle or shine? Let's tune in on Saturday!

For thoroughness, after the "10" spots listed at the top, here are the other teams and records (in order of Average Final Rank) that make the playoff at least once in 10,000 sims.
11-2 Texas, 11-2 Ole Miss, 12-1 Florida St, 11-2 Utah, 12-1 Louisville, 11-2 Ohio St, 11-2 Oregon, 11-2 Washington, 10-2 Texas, 10-2 Ohio State, 10-2 Ole Miss, 11-2 Oregon St, 11-2 Tennessee, 11-2 Georgia, 11-2 Oklahoma

Down to 8 Teams with Playoff aspirations. Texas dropped 2 spots with it's close victory over TCU. 12-1 Michigan leaped 11-1 Ohio State because (a) I combined UM & PSU last week, and (b) these records now necessitate a Blue head-to-head victory.

Florida State is still #4 and despite the aforementioned drops by Texas and Ohio State, they are now less likely to make the playoff at 13-0 than last week. While the teams are listed with discrete ranks below, it is really a jumble where style points are a team's only controllable.

Teams are grouped in some places below, blurring some lines. Of note is that a 12-1 Georgia who beat Alabama is above 1-loss non-champions Michigan and Washington. Georgia is also 100% playoff-bound if they win-out. Alabama is 95% though currently favored in the SECCG.

Absolute Rank (%Playoff, %Record)
#1 (13-0) OSU/UM (100%, 86%) & #3b (12-1) OSU (88%, 4%)
#2 (13-0) Washington (99%, 33%)
#3 (13-0/12-1) UGA/Bama (97%, 79%)
#4 (13-0) Florida St (81%, 66%)
#4b (12-1) Michigan (53%, 9%)
#5 (11-1) Ohio St (63%, 62%)
#6 (12-1) Texas (73%, 62%)
#7 (12-1) UO/UW (41%, 83%)
#7b (11-1) Michigan (25%, 32%)
#8 (12-1/11-2) UGA/Bama (15%, 95%)
Remaining, with AVG Rank
#6.4 (11-2) Texas (4%, 28%)
#6.8 (11-2) Oregon (8%, 4%)
#7.3 (12-1) FSU/Lou (1%, 43%)
#8.1 (11-2) Washington (<1%, 17%)
#8.5 (11-2) Georgia (1%,<1%)
#8.8 (11-2) Oklahoma (1%, 14%)

I listed out the remaining playoff possibilities (out of 10,000 sims) for thoroughness. Louisville and Oklahoma still have 1% prayers if they win out. With 2 SEC teams and 2 B1G teams able to make the playoff as non-champs, there will have to be copious upsets these final two weeks for these teams to break the logjam.

Schmolik Playoff/NY6 Projections:
https://www.offtackleempire.com/2023/11/...s-11-12-23

After Michigan beat Penn State, I think Florida State and either Ohio State or Michigan have two of the four Playoff spots locked with Georgia/Alabama and Oregon/Washington to determine the others. Texas looks to be a pretty strong favorite in the Big 12 but will it be enough to make it?

If you're looking for chalk, root for Georgia and Washington, if you're looking for chaos and controversy, Alabama and Oregon (plus Texas to win the Big 12, if Texas loses, Alabama and Oregon are your last two in with no controversy).

Any chance Alabama plays Washington in the Fiesta Bowl or will someone else have to go out to the desert? If Alabama had to choose between Washington in the Fiesta or Tulane in the Peach Bowl, what would they choose?

And here are this week's standings. Lots of chalk was expected this week. 12-1 Alabama nosed up to 98% but because of all the chalk every other team with losses dipped down, notably 12-1 Texas to 61%. 2 potential playoff teams fell out (11-2 Georgia and 11-2 Washington) but both were already <1% last week.

The only mover is 12-1 Michigan falling behind 11-1 Ohio State and 12-1 Texas after a narrow victory over Maryland. Florida State held firm at #4 and 81%. No telling the impact of losing their starting QB; could the committee re-evaluate them based on expected playoff performance?

Absolute Rank (%Playoff, %Record)
#1 (13-0) OSU/UM (100%, 91%)
#2 (13-0/12-1) UGA/Bama (99%, 90%)
#3 (13-0) Washington (100%, 49%)
#3b (12-1) OSU (66%, 3%)
#4 (13-0) Florida St (81%, 61%)
#5 (11-1) Ohio St (48%, 62%)
#6 (12-1) Texas (61%, 75%)
#6b (12-1) Michigan (33%, 5%)
#7 (12-1) UO/UW (33%, 91%)
#7b (11-1) Michigan (10%, 37%)
#8 (12-1/11-2) UGA/Bama (5%, 98%)
#8b (11-2) Texas (2%, 22%)
#9c (11-2) Oregon (5%, 2%)
#10 (12-1) FSU/Lou (1%, 35%)
#11 (11-2) Oklahoma (<1%, 5%)

Final, pre-CCG ranks. Michigan, Washington, and UGA/Bama are all win-and-in. Ohio State currently sits in the #4 seat, thanks to their stellar SOS and eye-test. But, 12-1 Texas and 11-1 Ohio State are just about a toss-up to snag the final spot.

13-0 Florida State? They are going to have to shine and probably get help across the country to make the playoff. They simply haven't played like a Top 4 team against the mediocrity that is their schedule. Louisville losing hurt their chances.

What if Oregon beats Washington? Either team would need help. Washington would have the more difficult schedule, going 12-1, and therefore would naturally rank above Oregon. BUT, if the two teams are adjacent in the standings (OSU and UT often between), Oregon would leap-frog them because of their conference crown and better power ranting.

12-1 Michigan is the chaos choice. If FSU, Texas, and Oregon are all eliminated with losses, Michigan is in (alongside UW, OSU, and the SEC Champ), win or lose. Sorry, Georgia fans; going 12-1 in the SEC-LEast isn't as impressive.

Obviously still QUITE a lot of wiggle room. None of the undefeated teams are "likely" to finish #1. Much will depend on how teams preform this week.

AvgRank (Record) (%playoff, %record)
#1.9 (13-0) Michigan (100%, 92%)
#2.1 (13-0) Washington (100%, 42%)
#2.4 (13-0) Georgia (100%, 53%)
#2.7 (12-1) Alabama (99%, 46%)
#4.2 (11-1) Ohio St (59%, 100%)
#4.3 (12-1) Texas (42%, 88%)
#4.3 (13-0) Florida St (11%, 76%)
#5.1 (12-1) Washington (84%, 57%)
#5.1 (12-1) Oregon (16%, 57%)
#6.3 (12-1) Michigan (7%, 7%)

There is opportunity here to reflect on the ranking algorithm. This is analogous to ESPN's SOR (strength of record) with tie-breakers. Washington is currently #2 in mine and ESPN, with the second toughest CCG opponent (after Iowa). If any non-champion is making it, it should be the Huskies.

BUT, they haven't looked dominant on the field, and rank last among the contenders (13th overall) according to most authorities in "Power" ratings. Should the committee reward a near-perfect record against a difficult schedule (like TCU last year)... or a near-perfect record with a high performance ceiling (like OSU last year; this year: Texas, Ohio State, UGA/UM with a loss)?

Denying an undefeated Power Champion? The computer committee does not earmark teams as "P5" or "M3" or anything. Florida State has looked like the #10 team with a goose egg in the Loss column. They went undefeated in large part because they didn't have to play but 1 other Top 15 team (LSU). At some point a weak schedule counts more than a loss (or 3, look at Liberty). Perhaps that "point" should be adjusted? Or perhaps going 12-1 with Texas's schedule or 11-1 with Ohio State's is plainly more difficult than going 13-0 with FSU's.

If anyone is still following, here are the playoff scenarios created by my ranking algorithm after the Washington and Texas wins.

TLDR: The SEC champion will take one spot and Florida State is #5 behind Ohio State for the 4th spot.

BUT, if Alabama upsets Georgia, the committee will weigh Texas a bit more and it is a dead-heat between the Longhorns and Buckeyes for spot #4. Much will depend on how impressively Michigan dismantles Iowa, making Ohio State's loss look "less bad".

Now, Iowa 'could' upend Michigan (just like OK State "could have" beaten Texas; it is technically possible). A Michigan loss locks Texas into the playoff, with Washington and the UGA/Bama winner. Does FSU then get the last spot? Yes.

Now, if FSU 'and' Michigan lose, Michigan keeps the last spot (worse resume than Ohio State but holding the all-important head-to-head). BUT, if Georgia ALSO loses then the UM/OSU head-to-head gets entangled and the team with the best resume of the 3 (Ohio State>Georgia>Michigan) gets the 4th spot.

Thanks for following this year. There are other scenarios where extreme point margins get FSU in over OSU (perhaps coupled with butterfly affects from G5 point margins), but the above is where we are at. I know everyone else has FSU>OSU, and I may look at slight adjustments to the formulae.

(12-02-2023 04:55 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Now, if FSU 'and' Michigan lose, Michigan keeps the last spot (worse resume than Ohio State but holding the all-important head-to-head). BUT, if Georgia ALSO loses then the UM/OSU head-to-head gets entangled and the team with the best resume of the 3 (Ohio State>Georgia>Michigan) gets the 4th spot.

This reminds me of the 2014 conundrum, where TCU looked better than Ohio State who looked better than Baylor BUT Baylor had the head-to-head. Choosing Ohio State in some ways avoided the conundrum of picking TCU over a team with the same record who beat them.

Choosing a 1-loss Ohio State instead of a 1-loss Michigan this year might be a similar conundrum. Perhaps, in this scenario, Georgia is then chosen to avoid it altogether.

(12-02-2023 09:27 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(12-02-2023 04:55 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Now, if FSU 'and' Michigan lose, Michigan keeps the last spot (worse resume than Ohio State but holding the all-important head-to-head). BUT, if Georgia ALSO loses then the UM/OSU head-to-head gets entangled and the team with the best resume of the 3 (Ohio State>Georgia>Michigan) gets the 4th spot.

This reminds me of the 2014 conundrum, where TCU looked better than Ohio State who looked better than Baylor BUT Baylor had the head-to-head. Choosing Ohio State in some ways avoided the conundrum of picking TCU over a team with the same record who beat them.

Choosing a 1-loss Ohio State instead of a 1-loss Michigan this year might be a similar conundrum. Perhaps, in this scenario, Georgia is then chosen to avoid it altogether.

How could they not pick Michigan with a similar SOS and SOV and the head to head win over OSU? Doesn't look like it will matter, but I don't think that's a particularly tough choice. Alabama vs Texas vs Georgia is much more convoluted, you can make a case for all of them. I currently have myself talked into Georgia, but that might change before the night is up.

In no particular seeding order, these are the four the committee will select...

Washington
Michigan
Texas
Bama

FSU didn't do enough against Louisville and Georgia picked the worst time to lose their first game.