(06-25-2023 08:44 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(06-25-2023 05:43 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(06-25-2023 04:25 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(06-21-2023 10:54 PM)Acres Wrote:  He is practical . As long as Oregon and Washington, are in the pac12, there is no incentive really for the 4Cs to leave.

Which is why it’s baffling that espn, fox are reportedly out. Either George is asking for an unrealistic high number or the networks are convinced the BIG will raid the conference again.

Wrong. Oregon & Washington have made it very clear that they intend to follow USC & UCLA to the B1G. It is only a matter of time until they leave the PAC. Phil Knight and his money will leverage his Oregon Ducks into the B1G, and everyone knows it.

I'm sure all of the 4-Corners would love to stay in the PAC, but that ship has sailed. The PAC is changing, and nothing can stop it now. Some of the presidents of the 4-Corners have realized this fact, and they are going to do what is best for their universities. They have no good reason to hang around and be stuck looking for a lifeboat out of the PAC later, when they will have less leverage. I'm confident there are 4-Corners universities that would rather be in the Big12 than stick around and be in a PAC that will be nothing more than a glorified MWC.

Wrong. There is absolutely no evidence that Oregon and Washington are going to the Big Ten. They have not "made it clear that they intend to follow USC & UCLA to the B1G." The Oregon AD recently said that they are happy in the Pac-12. The ten PAC schools have a verbal agreement on a GOR. Phil Knight wants a national championship in football and Oregon sees a better path in the Pac-12 for that, as does Washington. Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal are not leaving, and as long as they are in, the other six PAC schools will stay as well.

To be clear there's "No evidence" of anything. A supposed verbal agreement to a GOR means nothing. The Oregon AD saying they're happy in the PAC means nothing. Also Phil Knight was supposedly the biggest advocate for moving Oregon to the B1G sooooo yeah.

We'll all have a better understanding in the next few weeks. This has been a bunch of appetizers before the main course and IMO that starts Tuesday with the beginning of NCAA dead period. There are 3 logical outcomes....

1) The PAC gets a TV deal that meets everyones needs they backfill with SDSU and SMU. I will be very curious about the TV deal if this happens, how much money? Is there an easy out? Is it all streaming? What are the specifics if they have unequal revenue sharing?

2) New deal but Colorado and Arizona leave to the BigXII anyway. PAC backfills with SDSU and SMU.

3) This is the chaos possibility, all of the 4c schools bolt and the B1G take UW and UO at a super discount.

No matter what you believe the outcome of the next 5 weeks will be, the PAC as it is currently constructed will not survive 10 years. Schools are going to leave. The BigXII will get their 4th time zone at some point and the B1G will add more west coast schools. As I've stated multiple times leaving the two LA schools on an island in perpetuity would be the dumbest expansion in realignment history. For a few years maybe, forever, no chance in hell.

As I've stated multiple times, remember my prediction, if I'm wrong call me out. I'll be here to face the fire.

I think the odds are they don't backfill. The networks won't pay enough even if they pay enough to hold them together.

(06-22-2023 09:18 AM)TeamRamRod1 Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 12:38 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  But a lot of these fake reports from insiders came from unnamed sources out of the Big 12. There are reports that ESPN and Fox are still in it. The rumors about Arizona and Colorado talking to the Big 12 came from Big 12 sources like coaches and all that. All these reporters like Dood, Thamal and others were wrong about schools leaving the Big 12 2 years ago, and they are wrong about the PAC 12 as well.

If the sources are unnamed then how do you know they came out of the Big 12?

I'll give you props for finally making a post in english though.

+1

(06-25-2023 08:44 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  To be clear there's "No evidence" of anything. A supposed verbal agreement to a GOR means nothing. The Oregon AD saying they're happy in the PAC means nothing. Also Phil Knight was supposedly the biggest advocate for moving Oregon to the B1G sooooo yeah.

We'll all have a better understanding in the next few weeks. This has been a bunch of appetizers before the main course and IMO that starts Tuesday with the beginning of NCAA dead period. There are 3 logical outcomes....

1) The PAC gets a TV deal that meets everyones needs they backfill with SDSU and SMU. I will be very curious about the TV deal if this happens, how much money? Is there an easy out? Is it all streaming? What are the specifics if they have unequal revenue sharing?

2) New deal but Colorado and Arizona leave to the BigXII anyway. PAC backfills with SDSU and SMU.

3) This is the chaos possibility, all of the 4c schools bolt and the B1G take UW and UO at a super discount.

No matter what you believe the outcome of the next 5 weeks will be, the PAC as it is currently constructed will not survive 10 years. Schools are going to leave. The BigXII will get their 4th time zone at some point and the B1G will add more west coast schools. As I've stated multiple times leaving the two LA schools on an island in perpetuity would be the dumbest expansion in realignment history. For a few years maybe, forever, no chance in hell.

As I've stated multiple times, remember my prediction, if I'm wrong call me out. I'll be here to face the fire.

The GOR is important. They agreed to equal media revenue sharing among the ten PAC schools. They have agreed on everything except the media deal. If they agree on the media deal, then they sign the GOR, and add SDSU and SMU. Then it is over.
Then you can admit you were wrong, and we can all move on to another topic.

(06-25-2023 10:38 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(06-25-2023 08:44 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  To be clear there's "No evidence" of anything. A supposed verbal agreement to a GOR means nothing. The Oregon AD saying they're happy in the PAC means nothing. Also Phil Knight was supposedly the biggest advocate for moving Oregon to the B1G sooooo yeah.

We'll all have a better understanding in the next few weeks. This has been a bunch of appetizers before the main course and IMO that starts Tuesday with the beginning of NCAA dead period. There are 3 logical outcomes....

1) The PAC gets a TV deal that meets everyones needs they backfill with SDSU and SMU. I will be very curious about the TV deal if this happens, how much money? Is there an easy out? Is it all streaming? What are the specifics if they have unequal revenue sharing?

2) New deal but Colorado and Arizona leave to the BigXII anyway. PAC backfills with SDSU and SMU.

3) This is the chaos possibility, all of the 4c schools bolt and the B1G take UW and UO at a super discount.

No matter what you believe the outcome of the next 5 weeks will be, the PAC as it is currently constructed will not survive 10 years. Schools are going to leave. The BigXII will get their 4th time zone at some point and the B1G will add more west coast schools. As I've stated multiple times leaving the two LA schools on an island in perpetuity would be the dumbest expansion in realignment history. For a few years maybe, forever, no chance in hell.

As I've stated multiple times, remember my prediction, if I'm wrong call me out. I'll be here to face the fire.

The GOR is important. They agreed to equal media revenue sharing among the ten PAC schools. They have agreed on everything except the media deal. If they agree on the media deal, then they sign the GOR, and add SDSU and SMU. Then it is over.
Then you can admit you were wrong, and we can all move on to another topic.

The "framework GoR" is worthless without an actual media rights deal to evaluate. Based upon what the final media rights deal looks like, it's entirely possible that changes to this "framework" will be made, or not, or schools end up leaving, or not, or they add more schools, or not. It's like the Drake Equation of Realignment.

(06-25-2023 08:44 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(06-25-2023 05:43 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(06-25-2023 04:25 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(06-21-2023 10:54 PM)Acres Wrote:  He is practical . As long as Oregon and Washington, are in the pac12, there is no incentive really for the 4Cs to leave.

Which is why it’s baffling that espn, fox are reportedly out. Either George is asking for an unrealistic high number or the networks are convinced the BIG will raid the conference again.

Wrong. Oregon & Washington have made it very clear that they intend to follow USC & UCLA to the B1G. It is only a matter of time until they leave the PAC. Phil Knight and his money will leverage his Oregon Ducks into the B1G, and everyone knows it.

I'm sure all of the 4-Corners would love to stay in the PAC, but that ship has sailed. The PAC is changing, and nothing can stop it now. Some of the presidents of the 4-Corners have realized this fact, and they are going to do what is best for their universities. They have no good reason to hang around and be stuck looking for a lifeboat out of the PAC later, when they will have less leverage. I'm confident there are 4-Corners universities that would rather be in the Big12 than stick around and be in a PAC that will be nothing more than a glorified MWC.

Wrong. There is absolutely no evidence that Oregon and Washington are going to the Big Ten. They have not "made it clear that they intend to follow USC & UCLA to the B1G." The Oregon AD recently said that they are happy in the Pac-12. The ten PAC schools have a verbal agreement on a GOR. Phil Knight wants a national championship in football and Oregon sees a better path in the Pac-12 for that, as does Washington. Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal are not leaving, and as long as they are in, the other six PAC schools will stay as well.

To be clear there's "No evidence" of anything. A supposed verbal agreement to a GOR means nothing. The Oregon AD saying they're happy in the PAC means nothing. Also Phil Knight was supposedly the biggest advocate for moving Oregon to the B1G sooooo yeah.

We'll all have a better understanding in the next few weeks. This has been a bunch of appetizers before the main course and IMO that starts Tuesday with the beginning of NCAA dead period. There are 3 logical outcomes....

1) The PAC gets a TV deal that meets everyones needs they backfill with SDSU and SMU. I will be very curious about the TV deal if this happens, how much money? Is there an easy out? Is it all streaming? What are the specifics if they have unequal revenue sharing?

2) New deal but Colorado and Arizona leave to the BigXII anyway. PAC backfills with SDSU and SMU.

3) This is the chaos possibility, all of the 4c schools bolt and the B1G take UW and UO at a super discount.

No matter what you believe the outcome of the next 5 weeks will be, the PAC as it is currently constructed will not survive 10 years. Schools are going to leave. The BigXII will get their 4th time zone at some point and the B1G will add more west coast schools. As I've stated multiple times leaving the two LA schools on an island in perpetuity would be the dumbest expansion in realignment history. For a few years maybe, forever, no chance in hell.

As I've stated multiple times, remember my prediction, if I'm wrong call me out. I'll be here to face the fire.

I'm starting to think #1 is more likely than #3, maybe I'm biased but the media really loves to play up the doom and gloom for more clicks (drama is an easy way to get views and attention).

Oregon and Washington can hope for the B1G as much as they want but what really matters is whether the B1G wants them and I think right now is too soon to say yes. I really think they want to see how USC and UCLA work out first and they have zero pressure to add them anytime soon especially if they aren't additive. Even if all 4C leave I'm not convinced on the B1G rushing to make a move. Especially when it comes to Oregon, it would not shock me if the B1G went with Washington and Stanford instead if they decided on 2 more from the Pac.

(06-25-2023 10:50 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(06-25-2023 10:38 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(06-25-2023 08:44 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  To be clear there's "No evidence" of anything. A supposed verbal agreement to a GOR means nothing. The Oregon AD saying they're happy in the PAC means nothing. Also Phil Knight was supposedly the biggest advocate for moving Oregon to the B1G sooooo yeah.

We'll all have a better understanding in the next few weeks. This has been a bunch of appetizers before the main course and IMO that starts Tuesday with the beginning of NCAA dead period. There are 3 logical outcomes....

1) The PAC gets a TV deal that meets everyones needs they backfill with SDSU and SMU. I will be very curious about the TV deal if this happens, how much money? Is there an easy out? Is it all streaming? What are the specifics if they have unequal revenue sharing?

2) New deal but Colorado and Arizona leave to the BigXII anyway. PAC backfills with SDSU and SMU.

3) This is the chaos possibility, all of the 4c schools bolt and the B1G take UW and UO at a super discount.

No matter what you believe the outcome of the next 5 weeks will be, the PAC as it is currently constructed will not survive 10 years. Schools are going to leave. The BigXII will get their 4th time zone at some point and the B1G will add more west coast schools. As I've stated multiple times leaving the two LA schools on an island in perpetuity would be the dumbest expansion in realignment history. For a few years maybe, forever, no chance in hell.

As I've stated multiple times, remember my prediction, if I'm wrong call me out. I'll be here to face the fire.

The GOR is important. They agreed to equal media revenue sharing among the ten PAC schools. They have agreed on everything except the media deal. If they agree on the media deal, then they sign the GOR, and add SDSU and SMU. Then it is over.
Then you can admit you were wrong, and we can all move on to another topic.

The "framework GoR" is worthless without an actual media rights deal to evaluate. Based upon what the final media rights deal looks like, it's entirely possible that changes to this "framework" will be made, or not, or schools end up leaving, or not, or they add more schools, or not. It's like the Drake Equation of Realignment.

It was not a "framework." The ten schools agreed to the terms of the GOR agreement. They agreed to equal media-rights revenue sharing and incentivized sharing of College Football Playoff revenue. They agreed on what sponsorships belong to the Pac-12 and the sponsorships that are left to the individual schools to sell, and what sets of rights the conference can sell. Plus, a variety of other issues. The GOR is done.

There is no GOR.

There can't be one until there is a deal with hard numbers and conditions. Whatever was agreed to in principle is meaningless once the actual contract is presented. The GOR conditions and revenue split percentages are very dependent upon the dollar amount. Even after the B1G got their deal done, details still are being hammered out, and as that happens the preliminary GOR is modified as we speak, since it depends upon the conditions; and yet we know they have an agreement in principle, and there is no way anybody will not sign it. There are myriad details that have to be included which depend upon the specifics of the slots, kickoff and even date change parameters. And beyond that, the percentages for equal share and for performance and appearance (i.e., selection to more valuable slots) are dependent upon the total contract value, as there are minimum guaranteed dollars that some schools will not accept less than. A $20m per year per school contract will likely see schools demand a much higher guaranteed money percentage than a $30m per year per school contract would have. Streaming versus non streaming and subscriber threshold levels will trigger a conflict over how such money is distributed. Oregon could very well recognize that they will drive ten times as many subs than say Oregon State or Stanford. So a streaming heavy package will force a much different formulation to keep Oregon in agreement. (This definitely would have been the case if USC and UCLA remained, recognizing they would drive easily twice what the other schools would to subscriptions.)

It's an empty statement to say there is a basic agreement on the GOR without a media deal. It's blatant propaganda from the Pac-12 office.

But all this claiming to know something by everyone from all sides should come to clarity in the next three weeks. Because Kliavkoff really can't let this drag on into the Football Kickoff on July 21st. If it does go that long, it means very bad news.

(06-25-2023 05:43 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(06-25-2023 04:25 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(06-21-2023 10:54 PM)Acres Wrote:  He is practical . As long as Oregon and Washington, are in the pac12, there is no incentive really for the 4Cs to leave.

Which is why it’s baffling that espn, fox are reportedly out. Either George is asking for an unrealistic high number or the networks are convinced the BIG will raid the conference again.

Wrong. Oregon & Washington have made it very clear that they intend to follow USC & UCLA to the B1G. It is only a matter of time until they leave the PAC. Phil Knight and his money will leverage his Oregon Ducks into the B1G, and everyone knows it.

I'm sure all of the 4-Corners would love to stay in the PAC, but that ship has sailed. The PAC is changing, and nothing can stop it now. Some of the presidents of the 4-Corners have realized this fact, and they are going to do what is best for their universities. They have no good reason to hang around and be stuck looking for a lifeboat out of the PAC later, when they will have less leverage. I'm confident there are 4-Corners universities that would rather be in the Big12 than stick around and be in a PAC that will be nothing more than a glorified MWC.

Wrong. There is absolutely no evidence that Oregon and Washington are going to the Big Ten. They have not "made it clear that they intend to follow USC & UCLA to the B1G." The Oregon AD recently said that they are happy in the Pac-12. The ten PAC schools have a verbal agreement on a GOR. Phil Knight wants a national championship in football and Oregon sees a better path in the Pac-12 for that, as does Washington. Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal are not leaving, and as long as they are in, the other six PAC schools will stay as well.

IMO, both Oregon and Washington would drop the nPAC like a hot potato if the B1G called - any school in the M3 that isn't shackled to a GOR with 10+ years left on it would.

But to me the issue is "does the B1G want them", and so far I see no evidence that they do. Given that, I think their very strong preference is to remain in an nPAC, as long as the $$$ aren't ridonculously bad.

(06-26-2023 12:17 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(06-25-2023 10:50 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(06-25-2023 10:38 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(06-25-2023 08:44 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  To be clear there's "No evidence" of anything. A supposed verbal agreement to a GOR means nothing. The Oregon AD saying they're happy in the PAC means nothing. Also Phil Knight was supposedly the biggest advocate for moving Oregon to the B1G sooooo yeah.

We'll all have a better understanding in the next few weeks. This has been a bunch of appetizers before the main course and IMO that starts Tuesday with the beginning of NCAA dead period. There are 3 logical outcomes....

1) The PAC gets a TV deal that meets everyones needs they backfill with SDSU and SMU. I will be very curious about the TV deal if this happens, how much money? Is there an easy out? Is it all streaming? What are the specifics if they have unequal revenue sharing?

2) New deal but Colorado and Arizona leave to the BigXII anyway. PAC backfills with SDSU and SMU.

3) This is the chaos possibility, all of the 4c schools bolt and the B1G take UW and UO at a super discount.

No matter what you believe the outcome of the next 5 weeks will be, the PAC as it is currently constructed will not survive 10 years. Schools are going to leave. The BigXII will get their 4th time zone at some point and the B1G will add more west coast schools. As I've stated multiple times leaving the two LA schools on an island in perpetuity would be the dumbest expansion in realignment history. For a few years maybe, forever, no chance in hell.

As I've stated multiple times, remember my prediction, if I'm wrong call me out. I'll be here to face the fire.

The GOR is important. They agreed to equal media revenue sharing among the ten PAC schools. They have agreed on everything except the media deal. If they agree on the media deal, then they sign the GOR, and add SDSU and SMU. Then it is over.
Then you can admit you were wrong, and we can all move on to another topic.

The "framework GoR" is worthless without an actual media rights deal to evaluate. Based upon what the final media rights deal looks like, it's entirely possible that changes to this "framework" will be made, or not, or schools end up leaving, or not, or they add more schools, or not. It's like the Drake Equation of Realignment.

It was not a "framework." The ten schools agreed to the terms of the GOR agreement. They agreed to equal media-rights revenue sharing and incentivized sharing of College Football Playoff revenue. They agreed on what sponsorships belong to the Pac-12 and the sponsorships that are left to the individual schools to sell, and what sets of rights the conference can sell. Plus, a variety of other issues. The GOR is done.

It's done, but it's not signed. The 10 PAC schools have negotiated the terms of their GOR among themselves, but that only takes effect if there is a satisfactory media deal and the 10 schools (and any expansion schools) sign it.

The GOR is not a barrier to Colorado or Arizona or Washington accepting a Big 12 or a Big 10 invite tomorrow.