(06-29-2023 10:46 PM)otown Wrote:  I swear, I'm hoping for the PAC to break apart at this point for one big reason........to make an entire thread devoted for David St to eat crow. I will title the darn thing the David St crow thread.

I hope the Big XII adds Boise State, because then we’ll know that not only were they on the Big XII’s lips, they were in their hearts as well.

(06-29-2023 09:43 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(06-29-2023 06:41 PM)IWantToTalkToRalphSampson Wrote:  

(06-29-2023 12:58 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(06-29-2023 06:18 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(06-29-2023 01:26 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  If it really is Anderson then that is very concerning for the Pac.

As for the contents of the actual statement, it kind of reminds me of what Kliavkoff is doing with his media rights deal: a lot of noise but nothing to back it up. If the Pac deal is really so bad that UArizona, or CU, ASU, etc want to leave and join the big 12, then they're not going to be in a position to dictate any terms at all. The big 12 Presidents won't forget that the Pac left them for dead 2 years ago. Heck, they might even hope that one of the 4c gets wishy washy and ends up getting left out after getting cute during end stage negotiations. They don't really need all of them, or even any of the 4c for that matter. Even if they do add one or all of them, it won't impact existing member payouts for almost a decade. Who knows what the landscape will look like then? What if juicier ACC schools like Louisville, VT, Pitt and NC St are available?

The ACC schools are more attractive but only from a geographic, BBall, and nostalgic standpoint. But they are not even worth discussing right now. If becoming a national conference is the end game, the Big 12 needs the 4C. For the exposure piece, the 4C are essentially competing with BYU for the 10:15pm ET slot following the SEC double header. They'd also have to compete with BSU and the MWC with SDSU buying back in. That's a fair trade off. I don't think the B1G is interested in consuming that time slot barring some ridiculous bidder.

There is nothing left to evaluate. They know what the hard numbers are and I'm sure Fox has put out a deadline to take it or leave it. This is just grandstanding to present your school and peers in a more advantageous negotiating position.

I don't think Fox/ESPN are interested in three power conferences right now. Four power conferences sets up a 4-team bye CFP perfectly, and elevates the CCGs. I'm sure when push comes to shove, the ACC will still be elevated over the Big 12 so long as Tobacco Road stays together. You get rid of problem children like FSU, Clemson, and Miami, but if that core group stays together, they can poach eastern Big 12 teams, and the western contingent including some of the Big8/SWC schools of the Brett Yormark Conference may welcome that even, as they add SDSU, UNLV, OreSt, and others.

Another cog in this, is should the ACC change to a Yormark "like" commissioner, and JRSec brought this up passively, is would they move to a larger hybrid model and raid the BE, with BBall being "undervalued" by some? That will add some value and get them back into key markets. So you can off load football first schools like FSU Clemson, but maybe replace them with UC, WVU, plus GT, SJU, SHU, Villanova and maybe a couple more schools. I don't think it's likely, but it could be the only way to stay relevant as a power conference in the winter and spring months.

Get rid of all the football schools, yet the ACC is somehow worth more $$ to the networks than the big 12? Their basketball is roughly equivalent, so the ACC can't claim an advantage there. And in football? The ACC without FSU and Clemson has had exactly one top 10 team since 2009 (GT in 2014 was #8 in the final poll). ONCE in 13 years. And that competitive wasteland is somehow supposed to be worth more than a conference that plays a lot of games that matter year round? It's possible, but the big 12 would need to woefully underperform in ratings (and rankings) with their new contract.

FYI, since the 4 defections in 2010/11, the big 12 leftovers have had 9 seasons ranked in the top 10 of the final AP poll. TCU, Ok St, Baylor and Iowa State. Newcomers UCF and Cinci have done it a few times, too, while BYU and UH are always competitive. It seems ridiculously unlikely to think that the entire conference will fall off a cliff competitively in light of their $31.6m media rights agreement and the constant buzz from recruits and recruiters around them (like UConn, Fresno St, or Pac recruiters playing up the odds that they end up in the big 12 while on the recruiting trail).

So, one season out of 13 with one program in the top 10 for the theoretical ACC leftovers in your scenario, vs 9 seasons of 11 with 4 different programs in the top 10 of the final AP poll for the big 12 leftovers, plus a few others from some newcomers Cincy and UCF that are joining with a solid pedigree. You need Duke and Wake Forest to turn into the next TCU and Baylor for that to happen, plus a resurgence at UNC, GT, NC St, etc etc, all happening in the face of severe conference instability and defections. Definitely not impossible, as we've seen with the left behind schools in the big 12, but highly improbable in the case of a bunch of schools (other than GT) with not much history of success on the gridiron.

If the ACC’s commissioner starts acting like Yormark, presuming it’s true that ESPN is on the hook for full pro rata shares for up to 4 G5 schools, we might see ESPN agree to pay less than the full amount for the league not to expand, and then that $ can be allocated based on success to placate FSU and Clemson. Or, they just pull the trigger and invite, say, SMU, Tulane, and UConn, plus Navy FB-only paired with Georgetown, Villanova, or St. John’s, and then pay the newbies small fractional shares thru the end of the GOR and split the rest among the existing schools.

That seems like a logical extension to “ESPN is on the hook for full pro rata “. Only 2 reasons I can think of that isn’t happening? Either ESPN has a lot of say in which get added, or ESPN is not actually on the hook for full pro rata for any adds.

Its well known that ESPN is on the hook for B12 expansion---but that pro rata expansion clause is only triggered by the addition of CURRENT P5 schools. In other words---the addition of a G5 school does not automatically trigger that pro rata clause. Now--that doesnt necessarily mean ESPN would not be willing to pay a pro rata amount for B12 expansion that includes G5 schools---but it does mean such an expansion would not automatically qualify for a pro-rata increase in the ESPN payout. We also know that in 2016 when the B12 looked at expanding with G5 members---ESPN was not on board with the move....and lets be honest---in 2016 rights fee money for college sports was flowing much more freely at networks (including ESPN) than it is at present.