(07-05-2023 04:38 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  

(07-05-2023 04:13 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(07-05-2023 03:44 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  Any computer rating won’t place ECU well because the offense lost production and some lateral turnover in the transfer portal on defense. I would bet a lot of money that ECU won’t be an underdog in 9 games this season.

What that doesn’t show is that ECU returns All-Conference Rahjai Harris from injury, has Garcia who as #7 QB in his class, and has added a few P5 WRs through the portal. The defense should be equivalent in talent to last year, the players added at LB and DB may be better suited for our defense.

I was surprised to see ECU at 9. My assumption is they will be much better than that. We'll see.

You and I can count together as the season goes along. After our discussion on the stadiums, I don't trust your math.

Gardner Webb Tulsa Charlotte Rice. Would you put ECU as an underdog in any of those games. That’s not including Marshall App FAU Navy which ECU could easily be favored in depending on how the season is going.

No. That's why I said I was surprised to see ECU on the list. But that's how that site has them now. It could easily change as the season goes on.

Preseason lists aren't meant to be poured in concrete. They are meant to promote debate.

That's why I laugh when people start attacking the messenger. It's just somebody's opinion.

Who is being attacked? I’m sharing my opinion.

(07-05-2023 10:18 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  Who is being attacked? I’m sharing my opinion.

I wasn't referring to you at all. Sorry I didn't make that clear.

I'm talking in general about several threads over the past few months where tweets or graphs were posted, and when people didn't like the conclusions, instead of rebutting the conclusions, they went after the credibility of the author of the tweet or graph instead.

(07-05-2023 04:38 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  

(07-05-2023 04:13 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(07-05-2023 03:44 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  Any computer rating won’t place ECU well because the offense lost production and some lateral turnover in the transfer portal on defense. I would bet a lot of money that ECU won’t be an underdog in 9 games this season.

What that doesn’t show is that ECU returns All-Conference Rahjai Harris from injury, has Garcia who as #7 QB in his class, and has added a few P5 WRs through the portal. The defense should be equivalent in talent to last year, the players added at LB and DB may be better suited for our defense.

I was surprised to see ECU at 9. My assumption is they will be much better than that. We'll see.

You and I can count together as the season goes along. After our discussion on the stadiums, I don't trust your math.

Gardner Webb Tulsa Charlotte Rice. Would you put ECU as an underdog in any of those games. That’s not including Marshall App FAU Navy which ECU could easily be favored in depending on how the season is going.

Of course, after the season starts, all the pre-season rankings, odds, and expectations fly out the window. But, be honest with yourself, do you think ECU should be favored against @ App State or @ Navy TODAY?

(07-06-2023 08:02 AM)goliath74 Wrote:  

(07-05-2023 04:38 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  

(07-05-2023 04:13 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(07-05-2023 03:44 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  Any computer rating won’t place ECU well because the offense lost production and some lateral turnover in the transfer portal on defense. I would bet a lot of money that ECU won’t be an underdog in 9 games this season.

What that doesn’t show is that ECU returns All-Conference Rahjai Harris from injury, has Garcia who as #7 QB in his class, and has added a few P5 WRs through the portal. The defense should be equivalent in talent to last year, the players added at LB and DB may be better suited for our defense.

I was surprised to see ECU at 9. My assumption is they will be much better than that. We'll see.

You and I can count together as the season goes along. After our discussion on the stadiums, I don't trust your math.

Gardner Webb Tulsa Charlotte Rice. Would you put ECU as an underdog in any of those games. That’s not including Marshall App FAU Navy which ECU could easily be favored in depending on how the season is going.

Of course, after the season starts, all the pre-season rankings, odds, and expectations fly out the window. But, be honest with yourself, do you think ECU should be favored against @ App State or @ Navy TODAY?

Did you read what I wrote? I said ECU could easily be favored depending how the season goes. App went 6-6 in the slum belt last year and lost a lot much like ECU. Today I’d say it’s a pickem, the results of weeks one and two will set the line. Navy laid a lot of eggs last year, sorry midshipmen, and have a first year coach.

https://twitter.com/cffmwachsman/status/...s1OxZ2nfDQ


AAC PREDICTION
1 UTSA
2 Tulane
3 SMU
3 UAB
5 Memphis
6 Florida Atlantic
6 Tulsa
6 Charlotte
9 North Texas
9 East Carolina
11 Rice
11 Temple
11 Navy
14 USF
CHAMPIONSHIP: UTSA over Tulane

Navy:

Aug. 26 vs 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Dublin, Ireland
Sep. 9 vs Wagner Seahawks
Sep. 14 @ Memphis Tigers
Sep. 30 vs USF Bulls
Oct. 7 @ North Texas Mean Green
Oct. 14 @ Charlotte 49ers
Oct. 21 vs Air Force
Nov. 4 @ Temple Owls Football Schedule
Nov. 11 vs UAB Football Schedule
Nov. 18 vs East Carolina Football Schedule
Nov. 25 @ SMU Football Schedule
Dec. 9 vs Army Football Schedule

I think our defense will be reasonably good, the big variable will be the new offense with a new QB. My current scientific random guess:

Average outcome = 6 wins
+3 σ outcome = 9 wins
-3 σ outcome = 4 wins

Best case: 12-0
Most likely: 9-3
Worst case: 0-12

ESPN prediction 6-6
with ECU's % chance of winning
@Michigan L 3.3%
vs. Marshall W 53.2%
@App State L 42.3%
vs. Gardner-Webb W 98.9%
@Rice W 53.2%
vs. SMU L 39.0%
vs. Charlotte W 80.5%
@UTSA L 30.0%
vs. Tulane L 43.4%
@FAU L 46.0%
@Navy W 62.5%
vs. Tulsa W 74.2%


My prediction 9-3
based on Mason Garcia being a stud this year.
@Michigan L
vs. Marshall W
@App State W
vs. Gardner-Webb W
@Rice W
vs. SMU W
vs. Charlotte W
@UTSA L
vs. Tulane W
@FAU W
@Navy L
vs. Tulsa W

Despite the Pirates being a big favorite against Navy, it's still Navy and it's on the road.

(07-06-2023 09:59 AM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  

(07-06-2023 08:02 AM)goliath74 Wrote:  

(07-05-2023 04:38 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  

(07-05-2023 04:13 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(07-05-2023 03:44 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  Any computer rating won’t place ECU well because the offense lost production and some lateral turnover in the transfer portal on defense. I would bet a lot of money that ECU won’t be an underdog in 9 games this season.

What that doesn’t show is that ECU returns All-Conference Rahjai Harris from injury, has Garcia who as #7 QB in his class, and has added a few P5 WRs through the portal. The defense should be equivalent in talent to last year, the players added at LB and DB may be better suited for our defense.

I was surprised to see ECU at 9. My assumption is they will be much better than that. We'll see.

You and I can count together as the season goes along. After our discussion on the stadiums, I don't trust your math.

Gardner Webb Tulsa Charlotte Rice. Would you put ECU as an underdog in any of those games. That’s not including Marshall App FAU Navy which ECU could easily be favored in depending on how the season is going.

Of course, after the season starts, all the pre-season rankings, odds, and expectations fly out the window. But, be honest with yourself, do you think ECU should be favored against @ App State or @ Navy TODAY?

Did you read what I wrote? I said ECU could easily be favored depending how the season goes. App went 6-6 in the slum belt last year and lost a lot much like ECU. Today I’d say it’s a pickem, the results of weeks one and two will set the line. Navy laid a lot of eggs last year, sorry midshipmen, and have a first year coach.

Since it is on the road, it is more like ECU +3. In general, while I expect most people here (including me) over estimating their team's results, I see ECU's fans are doing it more than anyone else.

We have 6 new schools in league, we have many with first year coaches and most with a great number of new players in team. So I think there will be many good and bad surprises in those predicted records and standings

6-6. New head coach with 0 college coaching experience. We’re also breaking in a completely new offensive line, our starting QB transferred to New Mexico, and our best RB & WR went pro. Most of our defense returns, which has been the strength of the team since we returned. Our success completely depends on how fast our offense clicks.

One of the critiques about our interim coach last year was that his playbook wasn’t that creative. That was true, but when your star RB is averaging 7 yards per carry, you don’t have to be too creative. Our #2 running back was 65th in the country in total yards & returning for another year, so we’re not completely depleted. I do expect our RBs to catch more passes this year, and overall become more of a passing team.

(07-06-2023 09:25 PM)goliath74 Wrote:  

(07-06-2023 09:59 AM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  

(07-06-2023 08:02 AM)goliath74 Wrote:  

(07-05-2023 04:38 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  

(07-05-2023 04:13 PM)TripleA Wrote:  I was surprised to see ECU at 9. My assumption is they will be much better than that. We'll see.

You and I can count together as the season goes along. After our discussion on the stadiums, I don't trust your math.

Gardner Webb Tulsa Charlotte Rice. Would you put ECU as an underdog in any of those games. That’s not including Marshall App FAU Navy which ECU could easily be favored in depending on how the season is going.

Of course, after the season starts, all the pre-season rankings, odds, and expectations fly out the window. But, be honest with yourself, do you think ECU should be favored against @ App State or @ Navy TODAY?

Did you read what I wrote? I said ECU could easily be favored depending how the season goes. App went 6-6 in the slum belt last year and lost a lot much like ECU. Today I’d say it’s a pickem, the results of weeks one and two will set the line. Navy laid a lot of eggs last year, sorry midshipmen, and have a first year coach.

Since it is on the road, it is more like ECU +3. In general, while I expect most people here (including me) over estimating their team's results, I see ECU's fans are doing it more than anyone else.

You don’t know anything about ECU, so ok.

And I know where the game is, I think it is a pickem.

I’m really not sure what your point is. Do you think that ECU will be an underdog in more than 8 games? Do you think that ECU has no chance of being favored against App State in week 3? I don’t get what you’re digging for.

(07-06-2023 09:38 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  

(07-06-2023 09:25 PM)goliath74 Wrote:  

(07-06-2023 09:59 AM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  

(07-06-2023 08:02 AM)goliath74 Wrote:  

(07-05-2023 04:38 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  Gardner Webb Tulsa Charlotte Rice. Would you put ECU as an underdog in any of those games. That’s not including Marshall App FAU Navy which ECU could easily be favored in depending on how the season is going.

Of course, after the season starts, all the pre-season rankings, odds, and expectations fly out the window. But, be honest with yourself, do you think ECU should be favored against @ App State or @ Navy TODAY?

Did you read what I wrote? I said ECU could easily be favored depending how the season goes. App went 6-6 in the slum belt last year and lost a lot much like ECU. Today I’d say it’s a pickem, the results of weeks one and two will set the line. Navy laid a lot of eggs last year, sorry midshipmen, and have a first year coach.

Since it is on the road, it is more like ECU +3. In general, while I expect most people here (including me) over estimating their team's results, I see ECU's fans are doing it more than anyone else.

You don’t know anything about ECU, so ok.

And I know where the game is, I think it is a pickem.

I’m really not sure what your point is. Do you think that ECU will be an underdog in more than 8 games? Do you think that ECU has no chance of being favored against App State in week 3? I don’t get what you’re digging for.

I am noticing that ECU fans' opinion of their school's most likely record is a bit inflated. I do not think any ECU fan on this thread has predicted anything below 8-4 as a "most likely record".

But, since you're asking, here's what I am (aka - my opinion) seeing in terms of where ECU is an underdog today:

@Michigan UNDERDOG
vs. Marshall FAVORITE
@App State UNDERDOG
vs. Gardner-Webb FAVORITE
@Rice 50/50
vs. SMU 50/50
vs. Charlotte FAVORITE
@UTSA UNDERDOG
vs. Tulane UNDERDOG
@FAU UNDERDOG
@Navy UNDERDOG
vs. Tulsa FAVORITE

One of the first posts of the thread is an ECU fan saying 4-8 is most likely. Phil Steele has ECU going to a bowl so the 8-4s and 7-5s can’t be far off if at all.

I don’t think you know anything about ECU’s team just like I don’t know anything about FAU’s other than they have a first year coach, a bad defense, got walloped by UCF last year, and was 100th in the Massey composite. None of those things make me think FAU will make a bowl, but if you think that is most likely, more power to you.