(07-04-2023 12:54 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(07-03-2023 11:32 PM)Miami (Oh) Yeah ! Wrote:  .
https://basicbluesnation.com/big-ten-wai...expansion/
.
maybe this has already been posted, sorry if so, but I saw this 2 days ago and was wondering why this wasn't already...
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McMurphy reported this a month or 2 ago. It sounds very weird, but, considering the source, it's hard not to take it seriously.

I agree about it being weird. They have already gutted them.

(07-04-2023 08:11 AM)goofus Wrote:  Sometimes you just got to ask.

Why can't the Big Ten offer Notre Dame a non-football membership? Give them a deal similar to what they have with the ACC. As part of the agreement, ND has to play 4 football games a year against Big Ten schools. Rotating to play every Big Ten team once every 4 years and play 1 home and 1 road game every 8 years.

Notre Dame would only have to buy out the Non-football portion of its GOR with the ACC. They could even agree to continue to play 4 football games a year against the ACC as part of the deal.

Notre Dame could still play USC every year if they want. As for Big Ten schools, it should work out pretty well. Some schools like Iowa would probably have to skip Iowa State the years they are scheduled to play Notre Dame. Other than that, no big deal.

Because they don't need to.

And that deal makes the ACC look weak. It makes them money, but still portrays weakness.

I think the BIG and SEC are already unwieldy at 16 each. Actually see these two retracting. The networks will not continue paying these levels of contracts post 2030. It’s unsustainable.

Most contracts were overly exacerbated due to inflation and unrealistic streaming projections

I can actually see ESPN (Disney) refusing to extend the SEC as is, which would lead to a breakaway of 10-12 super schools.

Similarly for the BIG, I think CBS, NBC, pull back their commitments, which could lead to a breakaway of 10-12 super schools.

I think the networks instead look for margins, within the smaller conferences, pac12, big12, ACC, AAC.

(07-04-2023 11:12 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-04-2023 06:22 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I don’t get why the PAC 10 continues this charade that GK is going to put together a tv deal with great money and exposure. They aren’t going to get Big 12 money. They may get a deal that looks like it’s almost Big 12 money but once production costs are deducted, the real value is far less. The simple solution is this:

The Big 10 reaches out to the schools they are interested in with their offer (likely a phased in plan, that eventually builds up to full shares).

Said schools then inform the 4Cs schools of said offer.

4Cs approach the Big 12 and announce their move.

2 days later, the Big 10 announces their expansion.

I agree with both you and Schmolik on this one. But for slightly different reasons.

The Big 10 will take what they want from the PAC 12 because the SEC isn't really interested in them at all. And why not? Because SEC fans aren't interested in them. The Networks might think they can sell the SEC fans on some PAC schools to expand the time zone window, but SEC fans won't buy it and it would piss them off. Sankey knows this. Even ESPN knows this. If ESPN wants those late night windows they'll have to get them through the Big 12 or pay the PAC for them.

I have suggested Colorado for the SEC, but only because they used to be Big 8 and then Big 12. If the SEC decided to take Kansas, Colorado makes sense as the #2. They fit with Missouri, Oklahoma and Kansas and have history and fan interest in those games and with Texas recruiting ties re-established by playing Texas and A&M maybe their return to their former form, which was never truly great but was competitive.

This is why the Big 10 will never succeed in the Deep South. Outside of Miami which is more Northeastern culturally, there is no fan interest no matter how many snowbirds they think they attract. The other exception is Virginia which is now Beltway and not Southern, and though not Northern Midwestern either is more Northern than Southern.

In spite of the Risk board mentality which even the bloggers and beat writers now plug for interest, college sports is regional and still has traditions.

I fully expect the Big 10 to take more PAC schools simply to jazz up business on the West Coast and because culturally it works. I expect Deep South ACC schools to continue to hope for the SEC for the same reasons.

Where the SEC was smart was in realizing early that the mentality and culture of the Southwest, while not Southeastern, was similar enough that the two together made sense, as well as cents. The Big 12 coming prior to the major defections to the SEC also really helped. As the Big 8 blended with the old SWC members they remained close enough geographically, and got acclimated enough culturally for the Old Big 8 schools to begin to have enough of a similar culture to acclimate better toward the SEC. Passion wise for the sport they fit. The lack of significate markets among them also kept the Big 10 at bay early when the Big 10 culture would have been the preferred choice. Kansas in the SEC is now not unthinkable, and Colorado connected to Texas instead of California is not unthinkable either. That still doesn't mean the SEC will add Colorado, just that if it did not expand out of the ACC, if ESPN managed to keep the ACC together to become the #3 conference in a 3 conference upper tier, Colorado and Kansas would be appealing market wise and to add value to the winter schedule.

I do think that cultural sanity will be maintained in future additions, whether from the ACC or PAC 12. I also think 20 may be maxing it out, unless the Big 10 and SEC are simply paid to add the niche markets the networks want and the networks only want 2 conferences in the end.

Obviously, the massive prize is Notre Dame and the likelihood is that they join neither. They could easily be accommodated as an independent with another school like B.Y.U. attached in the same way.

The SEC's targets which could fit outside of those in the ACC would be Kansas and Colorado with all of Colorado's value being tied up in marketing a new time zone. Colorado playing any SEC school late would be of interest in the Central Time Zone. The thing which makes it improbable is I don't see SEC fans buying into playing Arizona schools and Colorado by itself could only provide 4 or 5 such games.

IMO, this is the hidden underbelly of the PAC 12 contract problem. The Big 10 might be able to justify 3 more PAC schools. Washington the most valuable, Oregon the most visible, Stanford a high-profile school with incredible academics are the three. Without Notre Dame maybe Cal becomes the evener for scheduling with the moves, maybe. Outside of the longshot that the SEC could entertain adding Colorado, there is no interest in PAC 12 schools from the SEC. As fun as it is to contemplate a national conference the high dollar value of the SEC is pinned to extreme regionalism, and a fervor for those games which sells nationally.

That fervor says that Florida State and Clemson fit. That North Carolina would be welcomed for the market and to create must see basketball games with Kentucky.
Duke was great under coach K, and maybe will remain so, but Carolina has always been great. Kansas fits right there as well. I would not be surprised if the SEC decided to double dip national brands. Two for football and two for hoops and call it a day. I can see a Virginia school in the SEC for markets should Vanderbilt decide to be the SEC's first all but Football member and Duke decided to join them in that capacity. Perhaps 20 full and two partial is the way the SEC winds up. We'll see.

24 for either the SEC or Big 10 will only happen, IMO, if the networks underwrite them.

I think the board is anticipating the correct resolution of the PAC 12. Eventually, and unless the contract situation magically improves, some of them are headed to the Big 12 where both FOX and ESPN can have just enough late night programming to meet their needs, and the Big 10 will move on to either 18 or 20 with the ones it really wants.

I just don't see the networks paying for 8 more schools to each the Big 10 and SEC at P2 rates. It simply doesn't work in any traditional sense.

Speaking of the Big10….

I surmise the finest legal minds in Florida have looked for a chink in the GOR armor and I doubt northern attorneys can do better.

(07-04-2023 12:31 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Speaking of the Big10….

I surmise the finest legal minds in Florida have looked for a chink in the GOR armor and I doubt northern attorneys can do better.

Big if true

(07-04-2023 12:36 PM)Owls9878 Wrote:  

(07-04-2023 12:31 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Speaking of the Big10….

I surmise the finest legal minds in Florida have looked for a chink in the GOR armor and I doubt northern attorneys can do better.

Big if true

We have a saying down here in the South, "People in Hell want ice water, but that don't mean they get it!"

ESPN will have a heckuva lot to say and do with UNC and Miami prior to 2035. The SEC's overall revenue lead will only grow. The recruiting advantages are set in stone. The branding is in the SEC's favor. The culture in North Carolina (as in the state) heavily leans towards the SEC. And this is the slowest time of the year for sports news and Jim Williams needs hits.

Virginia and Miami would be the more likely for the Big 10 if they headed this way.

Anyway, this tweet is to drive hits. If any news came out of the actual Big 10 offices, it could just as easily be an intentional misdirection. Ditto for the SEC. I'm sure the Big 10 would like to have UNC, but I doubt the Big 10 is up late at night trying to figure out how when the how works just as well for the SEC and/or ESPN.

To JR’s point, culture matters. If we’re going to 24, then the most sensible divide is:

Big 10: Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, ND, Miami, Kansas, Colorado/Pitt

SEC: UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, Clemson, GT, FSU, L’ville

The Rose Bowl cousins will blend into the Big 10 due to the common academic missions. Miami is culturally northern already, and some ex-Big 8 programs help to better integrate Nebraska.

Meanwhile the SEC stays Southern and unites the whole south under one banner.

(07-04-2023 11:46 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-04-2023 11:12 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-04-2023 06:22 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I don’t get why the PAC 10 continues this charade that GK is going to put together a tv deal with great money and exposure. They aren’t going to get Big 12 money. They may get a deal that looks like it’s almost Big 12 money but once production costs are deducted, the real value is far less. The simple solution is this:

The Big 10 reaches out to the schools they are interested in with their offer (likely a phased in plan, that eventually builds up to full shares).

Said schools then inform the 4Cs schools of said offer.

4Cs approach the Big 12 and announce their move.

2 days later, the Big 10 announces their expansion.

I agree with both you and Schmolik on this one. But for slightly different reasons.

The Big 10 will take what they want from the PAC 12 because the SEC isn't really interested in them at all. And why not? Because SEC fans aren't interested in them. The Networks might think they can sell the SEC fans on some PAC schools to expand the time zone window, but SEC fans won't buy it and it would piss them off. Sankey knows this. Even ESPN knows this. If ESPN wants those late night windows they'll have to get them through the Big 12 or pay the PAC for them.

I have suggested Colorado for the SEC, but only because they used to be Big 8 and then Big 12. If the SEC decided to take Kansas, Colorado makes sense as the #2. They fit with Missouri, Oklahoma and Kansas and have history and fan interest in those games and with Texas recruiting ties re-established by playing Texas and A&M maybe their return to their former form, which was never truly great but was competitive.

This is why the Big 10 will never succeed in the Deep South. Outside of Miami which is more Northeastern culturally, there is no fan interest no matter how many snowbirds they think they attract. The other exception is Virginia which is now Beltway and not Southern, and though not Northern Midwestern either is more Northern than Southern.

In spite of the Risk board mentality which even the bloggers and beat writers now plug for interest, college sports is regional and still has traditions.

I fully expect the Big 10 to take more PAC schools simply to jazz up business on the West Coast and because culturally it works. I expect Deep South ACC schools to continue to hope for the SEC for the same reasons.

Where the SEC was smart was in realizing early that the mentality and culture of the Southwest, while not Southeastern, was similar enough that the two together made sense, as well as cents. The Big 12 coming prior to the major defections to the SEC also really helped. As the Big 8 blended with the old SWC members they remained close enough geographically, and got acclimated enough culturally for the Old Big 8 schools to begin to have enough of a similar culture to acclimate better toward the SEC. Passion wise for the sport they fit. The lack of significate markets among them also kept the Big 10 at bay early when the Big 10 culture would have been the preferred choice. Kansas in the SEC is now not unthinkable, and Colorado connected to Texas instead of California is not unthinkable either. That still doesn't mean the SEC will add Colorado, just that if it did not expand out of the ACC, if ESPN managed to keep the ACC together to become the #3 conference in a 3 conference upper tier, Colorado and Kansas would be appealing market wise and to add value to the winter schedule.

I do think that cultural sanity will be maintained in future additions, whether from the ACC or PAC 12. I also think 20 may be maxing it out, unless the Big 10 and SEC are simply paid to add the niche markets the networks want and the networks only want 2 conferences in the end.

Obviously, the massive prize is Notre Dame and the likelihood is that they join neither. They could easily be accommodated as an independent with another school like B.Y.U. attached in the same way.

The SEC's targets which could fit outside of those in the ACC would be Kansas and Colorado with all of Colorado's value being tied up in marketing a new time zone. Colorado playing any SEC school late would be of interest in the Central Time Zone. The thing which makes it improbable is I don't see SEC fans buying into playing Arizona schools and Colorado by itself could only provide 4 or 5 such games.

IMO, this is the hidden underbelly of the PAC 12 contract problem. The Big 10 might be able to justify 3 more PAC schools. Washington the most valuable, Oregon the most visible, Stanford a high-profile school with incredible academics are the three. Without Notre Dame maybe Cal becomes the evener for scheduling with the moves, maybe. Outside of the longshot that the SEC could entertain adding Colorado, there is no interest in PAC 12 schools from the SEC. As fun as it is to contemplate a national conference the high dollar value of the SEC is pinned to extreme regionalism, and a fervor for those games which sells nationally.

That fervor says that Florida State and Clemson fit. That North Carolina would be welcomed for the market and to create must see basketball games with Kentucky.
Duke was great under coach K, and maybe will remain so, but Carolina has always been great. Kansas fits right there as well. I would not be surprised if the SEC decided to double dip national brands. Two for football and two for hoops and call it a day. I can see a Virginia school in the SEC for markets should Vanderbilt decide to be the SEC's first all but Football member and Duke decided to join them in that capacity. Perhaps 20 full and two partial is the way the SEC winds up. We'll see.

24 for either the SEC or Big 10 will only happen, IMO, if the networks underwrite them.

I think the board is anticipating the correct resolution of the PAC 12. Eventually, and unless the contract situation magically improves, some of them are headed to the Big 12 where both FOX and ESPN can have just enough late night programming to meet their needs, and the Big 10 will move on to either 18 or 20 with the ones it really wants.

I just don't see the networks paying for 8 more schools to each the Big 10 and SEC at P2 rates. It simply doesn't work in any traditional sense.

It wouldn't be traditional, it would be NFL on Saturdays.

(07-04-2023 12:31 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Speaking of the Big10….

I surmise the finest legal minds in Florida have looked for a chink in the GOR armor and I doubt northern attorneys can do better.

Exactly, the B10 isn't going to allocate slots until it has to. They take the PAC4 and then ACC becomes available? That would be a poor decision.

What is the end game here? What's to say that in X years the best of the SEC, ACC and the B1G decide to form a new conference? I get tradition and culture. Would fans/networks/sponsors rather see Michigan/Alabama, Clemson/Ohio St., Texas/USC then any of those schools v. Indiana, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, BC, Wake or Miss St? Where does it end?

(07-04-2023 03:10 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  What is the end game here? What's to say that in X years the best of the SEC, ACC and the B1G decide to form a new conference? I get tradition and culture. Would fans/networks/sponsors rather see Michigan/Alabama, Clemson/Ohio St., Texas/USC then any of those schools v. Indiana, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, BC, Wake or Miss St? Where does it end?

The SEC and Big Ten have reached their endgame already. The SEC has won something like 13 of 17 national titles in football and its members are making more than anyone else, which will keep them on top.

Meanwhile, the Big Ten is already the premier athletic conference for large college research institutions in the world.

Any more additions by either league won't change the power structure or finances in any substantial way. Maybe Notre Dame joins the Big Ten at some point. The Big Ten would get another feather in its cap with an excellent academic institution with a proud history among its membership -- and the SEC would still dominate on the field.

If Oregon isn't enough to move the B1G's needle, then UVa and UNC are the only market-movers outside of the Irish. The Big Ten could take both of them, and the SEC and B1G would both have fulfilled their dreams.

I love this board because the concept of realignment is just fascinating, but when you take a couple of steps back and look at the goals of the actual power brokers involved it's pretty simple.

(07-04-2023 11:42 AM)Acres Wrote:  I think the BIG and SEC are already unwieldy at 16 each. Actually see these two retracting. The networks will not continue paying these levels of contracts post 2030. It’s unsustainable.

Most contracts were overly exacerbated due to inflation and unrealistic streaming projections

I can actually see ESPN (Disney) refusing to extend the SEC as is, which would lead to a breakaway of 10-12 super schools.

Similarly for the BIG, I think CBS, NBC, pull back their commitments, which could lead to a breakaway of 10-12 super schools.

I think the networks instead look for margins, within the smaller conferences, pac12, big12, ACC, AAC.

We'll find out soon when the NBA comes up for bid. Right now, CFB as a whole is roughly on par with MLB and the current NBA contract. If the NBA really gets something about 3x their current contract as expected, then 2030 and beyond will probably be a continuation of what we have right now. However, if the NBA is humbled and gets a much smaller increase in their contract, then that will have serious implications for other leagues/sports going forward.

(07-04-2023 12:31 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Speaking of the Big10….

I surmise the finest legal minds in Florida have looked for a chink in the GOR armor and I doubt northern attorneys can do better.

I dunno, I was looking at a map of the AAU schools yesterday, probably 3/4 of them are in the NE. So, you know, HERE THERE BE LAWYERS.

(07-04-2023 12:48 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-04-2023 12:36 PM)Owls9878 Wrote:  

(07-04-2023 12:31 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Speaking of the Big10….

I surmise the finest legal minds in Florida have looked for a chink in the GOR armor and I doubt northern attorneys can do better.

Big if true

We have a saying down here in the South, "People in Hell want ice water, but that don't mean they get it!"

ESPN will have a heckuva lot to say and do with UNC and Miami prior to 2035. The SEC's overall revenue lead will only grow. The recruiting advantages are set in stone. The branding is in the SEC's favor. The culture in North Carolina (as in the state) heavily leans towards the SEC. And this is the slowest time of the year for sports news and Jim Williams needs hits.

Virginia and Miami would be the more likely for the Big 10 if they headed this way.

Anyway, this tweet is to drive hits. If any news came out of the actual Big 10 offices, it could just as easily be an intentional misdirection. Ditto for the SEC. I'm sure the Big 10 would like to have UNC, but I doubt the Big 10 is up late at night trying to figure out how when the how works just as well for the SEC and/or ESPN.

I agree with all of this. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that AAU, big Brand ACC schools in the South would be juicy targets for the B1G, and UNC is at the top of both P2 lists.

(07-04-2023 02:37 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  To JR’s point, culture matters. If we’re going to 24, then the most sensible divide is:

Big 10: Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, ND, Miami, Kansas, Colorado/Pitt

SEC: UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, Clemson, GT, FSU, L’ville

The Rose Bowl cousins will blend into the Big 10 due to the common academic missions. Miami is culturally northern already, and some ex-Big 8 programs help to better integrate Nebraska.

Meanwhile the SEC stays Southern and unites the whole south under one banner.

If 2/3 of the ACC was worth a P2 invite then they'd just stay together. Heck, you have 11/15 from the ACC ending up in either the B1G or SEC. Looking at the ACC's ratings for the past couple of years, they look a whole lot more like the Pac than the B1G. I for one am quite skeptical that more a couple of them, 4 max, end up in either of the P2, unless something changes radically on the ratings front over the next however many years it is until movement starts.

(07-04-2023 03:10 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  What is the end game here? What's to say that in X years the best of the SEC, ACC and the B1G decide to form a new conference? I get tradition and culture. Would fans/networks/sponsors rather see Michigan/Alabama, Clemson/Ohio St., Texas/USC then any of those schools v. Indiana, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, BC, Wake or Miss St? Where does it end?

The best of the ACC? They'd be lucky to get 2 into a 16 team Super Conference, and they might get 0.

8 from the SEC at a minimum, perhaps a couple more
Michigan, tOSU, PSU, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, USC, Michigan St are all serious candidates from the B1G.

Clemson might sneak into the top 16, they're solid, but it would be close. But FSU is a clear #2 in their own state, perhaps 1A, but Florida would certainly get in ahead of them. And Washington and Oregon would be in that mix, too.

(07-04-2023 04:15 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(07-04-2023 03:10 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  What is the end game here? What's to say that in X years the best of the SEC, ACC and the B1G decide to form a new conference? I get tradition and culture. Would fans/networks/sponsors rather see Michigan/Alabama, Clemson/Ohio St., Texas/USC then any of those schools v. Indiana, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, BC, Wake or Miss St? Where does it end?

The best of the ACC? They'd be lucky to get 2 into a 16 team Super Conference, and they might get 0.

Are you suggesting that Tanya Tucker sing Delta Dawn to Clemson and Florida State?

(07-04-2023 04:17 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-04-2023 04:15 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(07-04-2023 03:10 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  What is the end game here? What's to say that in X years the best of the SEC, ACC and the B1G decide to form a new conference? I get tradition and culture. Would fans/networks/sponsors rather see Michigan/Alabama, Clemson/Ohio St., Texas/USC then any of those schools v. Indiana, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, BC, Wake or Miss St? Where does it end?

The best of the ACC? They'd be lucky to get 2 into a 16 team Super Conference, and they might get 0.

Are you suggesting that Tanya Tucker sing Delta Dawn to Clemson and Florida State?

LOL I edited in my list of schools above. Basically, the top 20 would be 8 from the B1G, at least 8 from the SEC, then a couple of FSU/Clemson/UW/UO. If any ACC teams got in, which I think is possible though perhaps not probable, they'd certainly be at the very bottom of the top 16.

(07-04-2023 04:29 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(07-04-2023 04:17 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-04-2023 04:15 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(07-04-2023 03:10 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  What is the end game here? What's to say that in X years the best of the SEC, ACC and the B1G decide to form a new conference? I get tradition and culture. Would fans/networks/sponsors rather see Michigan/Alabama, Clemson/Ohio St., Texas/USC then any of those schools v. Indiana, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, BC, Wake or Miss St? Where does it end?

The best of the ACC? They'd be lucky to get 2 into a 16 team Super Conference, and they might get 0.

Are you suggesting that Tanya Tucker sing Delta Dawn to Clemson and Florida State?

LOL I edited in my list of schools above. Basically, the top 20 would be 8 from the B1G, at least 8 from the SEC, then a couple of FSU/Clemson/UW/UO. If any ACC teams got in, which I think is possible though perhaps not probable, they'd certainly be at the very bottom of the top 16.

Hmm? Top 32?
PAC 12: Washington, maybe Oregon?
ACC: Clemson, Florida State, Miami
Big 10: Ohio State, Michigan, Nebraska, Penn State, Southern California
SEC: Alabama, Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida, L.S.U., Auburn, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Indy: Notre Dame

I count 21 with a pulse.