(07-14-2023 11:58 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  My concern as a Big 12 fan is whether it's revenue positive on the NEXT contract where a pro-rata clause isn't doing the lifting.

In favor of UConn is that they were one of the singled out schools in the AAC that ESPN reserved the right to renegotiate should UCONN, UCF, UH, USF, or Cincy leave.

Against them is that their independent football rights went for maybe 500k a year according to SBJ. Now I think they are worth more than that football wise when you include better opponents and potential new market interest for league road games but just the same it's a tough climb to take that and the 4.5M each Big East school has and rationalize up to 31.7M.

Was Memphis really not included in that list, or did you forget to include them? I thought any of the “top 6” leaving was a potential reason for renegotiating the TV deal. May have been wrong though

(07-14-2023 12:55 PM)Jhawkinva Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 12:34 PM)Claw Wrote:  No. The Big 12 cannot offer them the stage the Big East offers. They suffered from losing that stage when in the American, and would be no different in the Big 12.

UCONN's success is tied to the region it is in. It just is. That's not a great region for football. It is what it is.

I think UCONN learned its lesson last time. They stay in the Big East. It's their home.

There's a big difference between playing in the best conference in college hoops (Big XII) and the 7th best conference (AAC).

That's the equivalent of comparing the SEC and Mountain West in football.

It's interesting that people keep saying basketball is irrelevant to realignment. If that were true, we wouldn't be discussing UConn, Memphis, and Gonzaga on this board.

Memphis was the winningest football program in the history of the American up until last year. A UConn/Gonzaga basketball-only add doesn't really have anything to do with a full sports invitation.

(07-14-2023 12:45 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  My evaluation is that the ACC in the 2030s (possibly sooner) is more likely:

I see there being the potential that 20, rather 24, is the next step in Big 10/SEC expansion. The ACC would likely lose 4-5 full members, plus non-fb ND. That leaves the ACC reduced, but not facing impending doom. I can see the some of the schools left behind resistant to the idea of joining a nationwide Big 12 and prefer to maintain an Eastern footprint. WVU/Cincy/UCF would probably top the list of preferred ACC replacements, but if they say no, USF/UConn/Memphis would be the next ones up.

Not to mention the GOBS of cash left behind by the 4-5 schools plus ND leaving the ACC. There would be 9 schools left, splitting up $90M x 5 and whatever ND's exit fee would be, PLUS the negotiated GoR buy out money, which even in 2030 would be sizeable.

If this kind of exodus occurs, the left behinds would have a nice stack of cash coming to them.

The ACCN, in whatever form it may be in 7 years, and there's more reasons for the left behinds to stay where they are, rather than go to the Big XII.

(07-14-2023 11:36 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  We had competitive games in football, basketball, and baseball while we were both in the AAC and I like talking with a couple UConn posters so I can live with UConn being added so long as it doesn’t dilute the tv money for the league. My main hang up is that I think it will but I guess we shall see.

Same, my fellow Coog. Also, the other team(s) need(s) to bring a lot of value, too.

Ideally, I think we, the Big XII, should add two of the following schools. These schools are below. (I decided to throw DavidSt a bit of a bone by including Boise State, for kicks and giggles.)

Colorado (Former Big XiI member so clearly a lot of history with some of the schools, especially former Big 8 schools Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State; hearing a lot of grumblings that they're coming back, but nothing's been made official yet.)
Memphis (Up and coming school that may have just missed the boat last time; should honestly be considered due to cultural fit, great basketball, and decent to good football recently. Could also serve as a geographic bridge of sorts between the easternmost schools and the majority of the conference.)
UConn (Geography is a major issue; at the same time, they're in the Northeast Megalopolis that stretches from Boston to Washington, D.C. so they have access to airports in NYC (though it's a bit of a long drive, admittedly) and Hartford, which is 40-ish miles south of Storrs. They've gotten serious again about football. As for basketball, well, they're an absolute beast! They're the defending NCAA champs in men's hoops and a historic power on the women's side.)
USF (Geographic partner to appease UCF; would potentially guarantee several schools one trip to Florida every football season. By the way, they've been pretty good in football over the years, but they seem to have fallen somewhat off the cliff, though not completely. The fact they're on track to build an OCS (finally!) for football is a definite plus. Also, they just received AAU status so that definitely helps. Could be a sleeping giant of sorts. Basketball has never really been good.)
Arizona (Geographic and cultural fit of sorts with Colorado (if they do come, which I believe they will) and BYU. Great basketball history; brings Tucson and Phoenix markets.)
Arizona State (Same as Arizona except in football, at least historically.)
Utah (Solidifies SLC market; built-in rivalry with BYU. They would rather, however, stay in the PAC since that league was the one that invited them to the Big Boy table.)
San Diego State (would move you higher, but like UConn, geography is an issue. Plus, I think you'll be going to the PAC anyway.)
Fresno State (same with San Diego State, but you are more of a cultural fit, in my honest opinion.)
Colorado State (A bit of a long shot, but it could happen. Not sure if they bring enough to the table though in terms of the media contract.)

Boise State (Yes, they get their own paragraph. lol Hmm...Where do I begin? Good basketball, really good football, overall, so it's not like they wouldn't be welcome. However, I have some concerns, which are quite several, actually. First, geography, though Idaho does border Utah. Second, most of their football happened back in the 2000's. They've had a bit of a drop since, but they're still pretty good, truth be told. Third, their academics do leave a lot to be desired, though I've heard they are trying to improve that, which is a good thing. Fourth, and I think this point is key, they were once invited to join the Big East during the BCS era, and they reneged after announcing they were joining it. Don't get me wrong. SDSU did as well, but they didn't outright sprun the Big East like Biose State did. They went back to the MWC and got a Texas-like media funds distribution deal, which in my opinion, gave them a bit of an inflated ego. Last but not least, Boise's market isn't, in my opinion, big enough. I mean it's not necessarily small, but bigger than Tampa or Denver? Nope. Don't see it. Also, I know DavidSt says it stretches all the way to Washington State, but that would be hundreds of miles from the school. That's doesn't make sense to me at all, especially considering most media markets aren't measured that way. All in all, I'm not sure their addition would justify keeping our media deal at $31.6M/yr/school. I'm sorry, but I just don't see it. Now I will say I'd like to be proven wrong here because they've shown what they can do when given the opportunity so if and when they finally do join a P5 league, they'll undoubtedly succeed in football. I just don't think they get called up this time due to the reasons I've already mentioned.)

(07-14-2023 01:00 PM)Titans3775 Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 12:55 PM)Jhawkinva Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 12:34 PM)Claw Wrote:  No. The Big 12 cannot offer them the stage the Big East offers. They suffered from losing that stage when in the American, and would be no different in the Big 12.

UCONN's success is tied to the region it is in. It just is. That's not a great region for football. It is what it is.

I think UCONN learned its lesson last time. They stay in the Big East. It's their home.

There's a big difference between playing in the best conference in college hoops (Big XII) and the 7th best conference (AAC).

That's the equivalent of comparing the SEC and Mountain West in football.

It's interesting that people keep saying basketball is irrelevant to realignment. If that were true, we wouldn't be discussing UConn, Memphis, and Gonzaga on this board.

Memphis was the winningest football program in the history of the American up until last year. A UConn/Gonzaga basketball-only add doesn't really have anything to do with a full sports invitation.

Memphis has definitely been a competitive football program in the AAC.

But they have only finished a season in the AP top 24 once - when they ranked 17th after losing to Penn State in the Cotton Bowl.

Memphis football would be a net drain on the Big XII from a competitive football standpoint. But their basketball program has a lot of untapped potential.

UConn, USF to cut the ACC off at the pass...

East: UConn, WVU, Cincinnati, UCF, USF Iowa St, Kansas
West: K-State, OSU, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Houston, BYU

(07-14-2023 01:42 PM)Jhawkinva Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 01:00 PM)Titans3775 Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 12:55 PM)Jhawkinva Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 12:34 PM)Claw Wrote:  No. The Big 12 cannot offer them the stage the Big East offers. They suffered from losing that stage when in the American, and would be no different in the Big 12.

UCONN's success is tied to the region it is in. It just is. That's not a great region for football. It is what it is.

I think UCONN learned its lesson last time. They stay in the Big East. It's their home.

There's a big difference between playing in the best conference in college hoops (Big XII) and the 7th best conference (AAC).

That's the equivalent of comparing the SEC and Mountain West in football.

It's interesting that people keep saying basketball is irrelevant to realignment. If that were true, we wouldn't be discussing UConn, Memphis, and Gonzaga on this board.

Memphis was the winningest football program in the history of the American up until last year. A UConn/Gonzaga basketball-only add doesn't really have anything to do with a full sports invitation.

Memphis has definitely been a competitive football program in the AAC.

But they have only finished a season in the AP top 24 once - when they ranked 17th after giving up 53 to Penn State in the Cotton Bowl.

Memphis football would be a net drain on the Big XII. But their basketball program has a lot of untapped potential.

Maybe, but they've proven they can be a force in football when given the right environment to succeed. Plus, they would give the Volunteer State a second P5 school for kids to choose from if they were to get called up.

(07-14-2023 01:42 PM)Jhawkinva Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 01:00 PM)Titans3775 Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 12:55 PM)Jhawkinva Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 12:34 PM)Claw Wrote:  No. The Big 12 cannot offer them the stage the Big East offers. They suffered from losing that stage when in the American, and would be no different in the Big 12.

UCONN's success is tied to the region it is in. It just is. That's not a great region for football. It is what it is.

I think UCONN learned its lesson last time. They stay in the Big East. It's their home.

There's a big difference between playing in the best conference in college hoops (Big XII) and the 7th best conference (AAC).

That's the equivalent of comparing the SEC and Mountain West in football.

It's interesting that people keep saying basketball is irrelevant to realignment. If that were true, we wouldn't be discussing UConn, Memphis, and Gonzaga on this board.

Memphis was the winningest football program in the history of the American up until last year. A UConn/Gonzaga basketball-only add doesn't really have anything to do with a full sports invitation.

Memphis has definitely been a competitive football program in the AAC.

But they have only finished a season in the AP top 24 once - when they ranked 17th after giving up 53 to Penn State in the Cotton Bowl.

Memphis football would be a net drain on the Big XII. But their basketball program has a lot of untapped potential.

That is an ironic argument from a Kansas fan not gonna lie. Memphis would be no more of a drain in football than the 3 AAC teams that already got invited and has arguably a bigger basketball program than any of the 4.

(07-14-2023 12:32 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 12:26 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  I've been a Memphis fan since I attended my first Tiger football game in 1968. I want Memphis to be invited to join the Big 12 — and I feel the university, the athletic program and the city of Memphis are reasonably qualified and deserving (though with some admitted deficiencies). If based solely on football, Memphis is a better choice than UConn for the Big 12.

But this is a big-picture move for the Big 12 and UConn would bring lots to the Big 12 table. Some posters trash the Husky football program. So be it. But how they conveniently overlook all the positives UConn would offer the Big 12 is almost baffling. Conference realignment is not about football only. Otherwise, the Big Ten would not have added UCLA.

Yes, UConn offers flaws. But I can fully understand why the Big 12 might be interested. I feel many of the UConn haters know this. They simply can't stomach admitting it.

Bill, UConn and Gonzaga are good additions for the Big 12 in that hoops will not remain shackled to the past much longer. But, this is a bridge game that is being played in the Big 12. They cannot afford to add UConn and Gonzaga before they add the Arizona schools, or Utah, or Colorado. The four G5 schools with which they expanded were the top tier G5 programs, but for state flagship AAU schools they are not a lure, but a disincentive. Yormark must finesse at least one of the PAC schools to get more to come. After that happens is the time to add Gonzaga and UConn as hoops additions. You get the others in first to raise the conference profile and then you sell the added revenue from enhanced hoops in an already solid hoops conference. These next set of moves for the Big 12 will determine whether they become the third best conference or the 5th. And the order in which those cards are played will determine whether they win or get set.

I agree, JR. And nice use of the card game theme.

(07-14-2023 12:32 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 12:26 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  I've been a Memphis fan since I attended my first Tiger football game in 1968. I want Memphis to be invited to join the Big 12 — and I feel the university, the athletic program and the city of Memphis are reasonably qualified and deserving (though with some admitted deficiencies). If based solely on football, Memphis is a better choice than UConn for the Big 12.

But this is a big-picture move for the Big 12 and UConn would bring lots to the Big 12 table. Some posters trash the Husky football program. So be it. But how they conveniently overlook all the positives UConn would offer the Big 12 is almost baffling. Conference realignment is not about football only. Otherwise, the Big Ten would not have added UCLA.

Yes, UConn offers flaws. But I can fully understand why the Big 12 might be interested. I feel many of the UConn haters know this. They simply can't stomach admitting it.

If UConn offered decent or even average g5 football it would be one thing, but they're probably the worst g5 football program of the past decade. UCLA is pretty good at football, not great but probably about equal to an average current B1G program. That's partly why I say that I think that the big 12 will wait on UConn, they're the classic "not now but not never" school. Improve football enthusiasm, get yourselves a stadium, keep winning at basketball, and they're probably at the front of the line next time, or if not for the big 12 then for the ACC.

I don't necessarily disagree, B-1995. I simply feel UConn would be a better addition to the Big 12 (with or without the 4Cs) than some on this board. Maybe, to be fair, I am over-valuing UConn.

(07-14-2023 12:55 PM)Jhawkinva Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 12:34 PM)Claw Wrote:  No. The Big 12 cannot offer them the stage the Big East offers. They suffered from losing that stage when in the American, and would be no different in the Big 12.

UCONN's success is tied to the region it is in. It just is. That's not a great region for football. It is what it is.

I think UCONN learned its lesson last time. They stay in the Big East. It's their home.

There's a big difference between playing in the best conference in college hoops (Big XII) and the 7th best conference (AAC).

That's the equivalent of comparing the SEC and Mountain West in football.

It's interesting that people keep saying basketball is irrelevant to realignment. If that were true, we wouldn't be discussing UConn, Memphis, and Gonzaga on this board.

The UCONN women have their own TV contract with SNY via special arrangement with FOX. In order for them to move to the Big12, some similar arrangement will have to be available. They aren't moving conferences if they come off of SNY. At least not as long as Geno is there.

It cracks me up that Yormark apparently makes one crack about staying at 14 which to anyone with an ounce of rationality meant a couple of PAC teams.

Why would the B12 NOW take any other team that the JUST PASSED ON when they did expand.

Lets see, we just passed on Yukon but NOW WE WANT THEM. Riiiight.

Yukon chose the C7. Now you can rot there.

(07-14-2023 01:42 PM)Jhawkinva Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 01:00 PM)Titans3775 Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 12:55 PM)Jhawkinva Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 12:34 PM)Claw Wrote:  No. The Big 12 cannot offer them the stage the Big East offers. They suffered from losing that stage when in the American, and would be no different in the Big 12.

UCONN's success is tied to the region it is in. It just is. That's not a great region for football. It is what it is.

I think UCONN learned its lesson last time. They stay in the Big East. It's their home.

There's a big difference between playing in the best conference in college hoops (Big XII) and the 7th best conference (AAC).

That's the equivalent of comparing the SEC and Mountain West in football.

It's interesting that people keep saying basketball is irrelevant to realignment. If that were true, we wouldn't be discussing UConn, Memphis, and Gonzaga on this board.

Memphis was the winningest football program in the history of the American up until last year. A UConn/Gonzaga basketball-only add doesn't really have anything to do with a full sports invitation.

Memphis has definitely been a competitive football program in the AAC.

But they have only finished a season in the AP top 24 once - when they ranked 17th after losing to Penn State in the Cotton Bowl.

Memphis football would be a net drain on the Big XII from a competitive football standpoint. But their basketball program has a lot of untapped potential.

Then-Memphis State finished No. 14 in the final coaches poll in 1963. Sadly, finishing in the final polls has been rare for the Tiger program.

(07-14-2023 12:38 PM)HartfordHusky Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 12:32 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 12:26 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  I've been a Memphis fan since I attended my first Tiger football game in 1968. I want Memphis to be invited to join the Big 12 — and I feel the university, the athletic program and the city of Memphis are reasonably qualified and deserving (though with some admitted deficiencies). If based solely on football, Memphis is a better choice than UConn for the Big 12.

But this is a big-picture move for the Big 12 and UConn would bring lots to the Big 12 table. Some posters trash the Husky football program. So be it. But how they conveniently overlook all the positives UConn would offer the Big 12 is almost baffling. Conference realignment is not about football only. Otherwise, the Big Ten would not have added UCLA.

Yes, UConn offers flaws. But I can fully understand why the Big 12 might be interested. I feel many of the UConn haters know this. They simply can't stomach admitting it.

If UConn offered decent or even average g5 football it would be one thing, but they're probably the worst g5 football program of the past decade. UCLA is pretty good at football, not great but probably about equal to an average current B1G program. That's partly why I say that I think that the big 12 will wait on UConn, they're the classic "not now but not never" school. Improve football enthusiasm, get yourselves a stadium, keep winning at basketball, and they're probably at the front of the line next time, or if not for the big 12 then for the ACC.

I don't expect the stadium situation to change. Rentschler Field is UConn's stadium. It was specifically built for UConn football which is its only tenant. The only potential change would be expansion of Rentschler Field. I know some UConn fans disagree and think we need to put effort into getting an on campus stadium but I'm fine with the way things are.

Why did you guys build a stadium 20 miles off campus?

(07-14-2023 02:02 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 01:42 PM)Jhawkinva Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 01:00 PM)Titans3775 Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 12:55 PM)Jhawkinva Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 12:34 PM)Claw Wrote:  No. The Big 12 cannot offer them the stage the Big East offers. They suffered from losing that stage when in the American, and would be no different in the Big 12.

UCONN's success is tied to the region it is in. It just is. That's not a great region for football. It is what it is.

I think UCONN learned its lesson last time. They stay in the Big East. It's their home.

There's a big difference between playing in the best conference in college hoops (Big XII) and the 7th best conference (AAC).

That's the equivalent of comparing the SEC and Mountain West in football.

It's interesting that people keep saying basketball is irrelevant to realignment. If that were true, we wouldn't be discussing UConn, Memphis, and Gonzaga on this board.

Memphis was the winningest football program in the history of the American up until last year. A UConn/Gonzaga basketball-only add doesn't really have anything to do with a full sports invitation.

Memphis has definitely been a competitive football program in the AAC.

But they have only finished a season in the AP top 24 once - when they ranked 17th after losing to Penn State in the Cotton Bowl.

Memphis football would be a net drain on the Big XII from a competitive football standpoint. But their basketball program has a lot of untapped potential.

Then-Memphis State finished No. 14 in the final coaches poll in 1963. Sadly, finishing in the final polls has been rare for the Tiger program.

Very true. Still, and this is coming from a Houston Cougar, Memphis has proven it can succeed in football when given the right environment (read: opportunity) to do so. The potential is most certainly there; they just need an opportunity to show what they can really do.

No. UConn will not get in. Way too far away for anybody, and Hartford or New Haven is a much smaller tv market than Boise.

(07-14-2023 12:45 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  My evaluation is that the ACC in the 2030s (possibly sooner) is more likely:

I see there being the potential that 20, rather 24, is the next step in Big 10/SEC expansion. The ACC would likely lose 4-5 full members, plus non-fb ND. That leaves the ACC reduced, but not facing impending doom. I can see the some of the schools left behind resistant to the idea of joining a nationwide Big 12 and prefer to maintain an Eastern footprint. WVU/Cincy/UCF would probably top the list of preferred ACC replacements, but if they say no, USF/UConn/Memphis would be the next ones up.

Assuming the ACC loses just UNC, UVA, Clemson and FSU, then ND leaves as a result, what's the next ACC contract like if nobody else leaves or stays? The ACC can't even out-draw the AAC the past 2 years for the CCG, even with Clemson and UNC in it. What's it going to look like when it's BC-WF? The absolute best case for the ACC if they lose 4 + ND is a full merger with the big 12 or perhaps the Pac, ideally both. The worst case is going to media partners, seeing how small the offer is, then watching Louisville, VT, NC St, Miami, Pitt, Syracuse and GT all call the big 12 at the same time and ask for an invite. If Yormark has played his cards right and left open a bunch of spots, he'll be able to accommodate 6 or so. If he went crazy on extra g5s in the mid 2020s then he might only have room for 2-4 more. But, either way, the best of the rest won't be sticking around to prop up the others.

(07-14-2023 02:08 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  No. UConn will not get in. Way too far away for anybody, and Hartford or New Haven is a much smaller tv market than Boise.

The Northeast Megalopolis has entered the chat. Also, THEY ARE THE DEFENDING NATIONAL CHAMPION IN MEN'S HOOPS! (And their women's hoops program is great, too.)

(07-14-2023 01:09 PM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  

(07-14-2023 12:45 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  My evaluation is that the ACC in the 2030s (possibly sooner) is more likely:

I see there being the potential that 20, rather 24, is the next step in Big 10/SEC expansion. The ACC would likely lose 4-5 full members, plus non-fb ND. That leaves the ACC reduced, but not facing impending doom. I can see the some of the schools left behind resistant to the idea of joining a nationwide Big 12 and prefer to maintain an Eastern footprint. WVU/Cincy/UCF would probably top the list of preferred ACC replacements, but if they say no, USF/UConn/Memphis would be the next ones up.

Not to mention the GOBS of cash left behind by the 4-5 schools plus ND leaving the ACC. There would be 9 schools left, splitting up $90M x 5 and whatever ND's exit fee would be, PLUS the negotiated GoR buy out money, which even in 2030 would be sizeable.

If this kind of exodus occurs, the left behinds would have a nice stack of cash coming to them.

The ACCN, in whatever form it may be in 7 years, and there's more reasons for the left behinds to stay where they are, rather than go to the Big XII.

Which is one reason why I think that a full big12/ACC merger could be in the cards. If anything, it would be easier to execute if the big 12 stays at 12 for now and the ACC loses 6 instead of 4, the new, combined conference would be 20 members just like the P2 would each likely be 20 at that point.

(07-14-2023 01:44 PM)Garden_KC Wrote:  UConn, USF to cut the ACC off at the pass...

East: UConn, WVU, Cincinnati, UCF, USF Iowa St, Kansas
West: K-State, OSU, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Houston, BYU

The ACC could have had UConn or USF any time they wanted, and they've never called. No need to cut them off at the pass on those 2.