(07-25-2023 08:23 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  Maybe the open source reporting isn't too good, but I did a few searches. It looks like those kids that redshirted played the first four games.

Those results don't look too encouraging either. Lost 0-31 to A&M. Lost 3-10 to N. Arizona. Beat Tex/Commerce 27-17 and SF Austin 17-16.

I’ll let the experts respond to that lol. I don’t know enough about SHSU last season to get that far in the weeds.

MT will lose to one of the newbies. It's in our DNA to do so.

I really wouldn’t look too deep into last year’s offensive results. Redshirted key players at skill positions who got time scattered across the schedule (not just first four, depending on the player) and Keeler fired his OC midseason. Team was quarterbacked by a guy who no longer plays the position for the first three games. I would NOT bet on a repeat.

Make no mistake, this is NOT the National Championship offense. Whoever starts at QB, Gunnell or Shoemaker, will not be as good as Eric Schmid. Ramon Jefferson is gone. So is most of the OL. There are a few redshirted holdovers who should make an impact, like Noah Smith and Ife Adeyi, but we’ll see some growing pains from the Kats’ O. Defense should keep us in most CUSA games, it’ll just be a matter of if the Kats QB play is up to par and if they can get it into their top playmakers’ hands consistently enough.

JMU winning the SBC last year gives me some hope we can finish at the top of the conference from the jump. I can see why some would expect us to finish last. In reality, I’d bet the Bearkats finish somewhere in the middle. Probably won’t score much, but we’ll be tough to beat at home and will hang around against more talented teams.

One thing is for sure though, we’ll be battle tested going into CUSA play. BYU, Air Force and Houston out of the gate.

(07-25-2023 09:59 AM)whupemall Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 08:05 AM)Ewglenn Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 07:39 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  Y'all help me out with SH. I know they were good a few years ago, but looks like they struggled mightily against FCS defenses last year to score. They ranked near the bottom in FCS in points per game, so what has happened in the offseason that's going to propel them as one of the worst FCS offenses to one that can compete right away in an FBS conference?

At the expense of using recently bias too much, I would be more concerned about Jax St given they were top 10 in scoring and top 30 or so in defense. Granted I don't know which schools lost players the most/least but that would translate better than SH's 18 PPG.

SHSU redshirted a ton of their starters/upperclassmen from the 2021 national championship team. They were playing a lot of underclassmen last year. This will be much more similar to the 2021 season vs last year. App St did the same sort of thing during their transition and we all know how that’s worked out.

This, exactly.

Jax State might've done the same thing, except for two key differences:

1) SHSU had an established coach in Keeler. JSU was playing under brand-new coach Rich Rodriguez. Rich Rod couldn't afford for his first year as Gamecock coach to be a 1-10 debacle. The fans were excited by his hiring and the team needed to show improvement to keep that excitement alive.

2) The WAC told SHSU from the start that they would be ineligible for the conference title. This meant the Bearkats had nothing to play for but the future, and Keeler took full advantage. In contrast, the ASUN had told Jax State in the preseason that we'd be eligible for the conference title, just not the autobid, meaning our guys had a championship to play for. The ASUN quickly reneged after our dismantling of preseason Top 10 SFA in our opening game, but by then, we'd already committed to a "win now" strategy.

So on paper, it looks like Jax State is head-and-shoulders above Sam Houston State.

But in reality, we're either neck-and-neck, or the Kats have a slight edge. The last time we met on somewhat equal terms was just two short years ago, when the Bearkats pummeled us 42-7. We've improved since then, but then, so has SHSU.

I’ll be very curious to see how our Thursday night matchup goes. Jax State should draw our biggest crowd of the year.

Of course, you make good points about the difference in circumstances surrounding the moves. Rich Rod needed wins. Keeler has them at SHSU, so he can do what he wants. But we saw some real improvement from Jax State last year, while I think we may have seen some regression from SHSU (and certainly did the year prior, after winning the natty). Not sure it was enough to pass the Kats, with that 42-7 fresh in mind, but I don’t expect another beatdown.

(07-25-2023 10:40 AM)KAjunRaider Wrote:  MT will lose to one of the newbies. It's in our DNA to do so.

And y'all will knock off a team that finishes in the top 3, that's in your DNA as well.

(07-25-2023 11:08 AM)inutech Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 10:40 AM)KAjunRaider Wrote:  MT will lose to one of the newbies. It's in our DNA to do so.

And y'all will knock off a team that finishes in the top 3, that's in your DNA as well.

Yep.

If we somehow pull off a miracle and upset BAMA in our first game, you can rest assured that we'll lose to Murray State at home, a couple of weeks later. It applies to OOC, as well.

(07-25-2023 11:21 AM)KAjunRaider Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 11:08 AM)inutech Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 10:40 AM)KAjunRaider Wrote:  MT will lose to one of the newbies. It's in our DNA to do so.

And y'all will knock off a team that finishes in the top 3, that's in your DNA as well.

Yep.

If we somehow pull off a miracle and upset BAMA in our first game, you can rest assured that we'll lose to Murray State at home, a couple of weeks later. It applies to OOC, as well.

That’s why I love seeing what the newbies say about us. The other four that have played us a good bit understand you never know what you’re going to get. The only certain thing with Rick, outside of winning one weren’t not supposed to or losing one weren’t supposed to, is that we will undoubtedly get blown out in the first game. That truly is everything you need to know about MTSU. We will be around .500 with a good win and a terrible loss.

(07-25-2023 01:11 PM)Ewglenn Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 11:21 AM)KAjunRaider Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 11:08 AM)inutech Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 10:40 AM)KAjunRaider Wrote:  MT will lose to one of the newbies. It's in our DNA to do so.

And y'all will knock off a team that finishes in the top 3, that's in your DNA as well.

Yep.

If we somehow pull off a miracle and upset BAMA in our first game, you can rest assured that we'll lose to Murray State at home, a couple of weeks later. It applies to OOC, as well.

That’s why I love seeing what the newbies say about us. The other four that have played us a good bit understand you never know what you’re going to get. The only certain thing with Rick, outside of winning one weren’t not supposed to or losing one weren’t supposed to, is that we will undoubtedly get blown out in the first game. That truly is everything you need to know about MTSU. We will be around .500 with a good win and a terrible loss.

We've played y'all 7 times (I think) and shared a conference for about the last ten years.

And this is exactly what I expect of MTSU at this point. Just over .500, an upset or two (each direction). The conference is getting weaker, so maybe the average wins and bowls will go up a little. Just hopefully not against us.

(07-25-2023 08:23 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  Maybe the open source reporting isn't too good, but I did a few searches. It looks like those kids that redshirted played the first four games.

Those results don't look too encouraging either. Lost 0-31 to A&M. Lost 3-10 to N. Arizona. Beat Tex/Commerce 27-17 and SF Austin 17-16.

It's been pretty well summed up by others in this thread but to expand even further is that we had a guy playing QB (Jordan Yates) that is now a runningback and when he played QB for us those first 3 games the offensive production through the air was abysmal. It wasn't only the QBs fault in his defense with the fact that our year 1 OC we hired last year was fired after being totally inept at running an offense.

Not scoring a Touchdown in the first 2 games as a Sam Houston fan was a HUGE red flag as fan where we have had maultiple seasons under Keeler where we had the best offense in the FCS and had a Walter Payton award winning QB.

The Texas A&M game you should really watch as our defense was able to rattle A&Ms QB and get into the backfield as well as hold A&Ms pre season heisman list RB and future 3rd round pick to 42 yards on the ground on 18 carries. Our defense also had 2 first half interceptions against the aggies QB. Rushing wise the Sam Houston had 107 yards rushing averaging 4 yards per carry against the Aggie D line vs the Aggies 110 yards rushing on 32 carries. Where Sam Houston failed is through the air in all 4 of those games. Against A&M we had 91 passing yard and 3.3 yards per completed pass.

What has been done to remedy the offense and provide some optimism?

1. We hired a new OC after having the TE coach take over play calling the rest of the season with all the big starters red shirting. The new OC oversaw great offensive production at Virginia Tech in all but his final season with the Hokies.

2. We brought a in a new QB through the portal called Grant Gunnell who will challenge Keegan Shoemaker who was much improved in Spring practice. This competition should yield the best man for the job at QB. Gunnell was a HS football record setting QB in high school and a synopsis of his career can be viewed in the wiki link.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grant_Gunnell

3. We bring back some serious production at receiver, runningback, and tight end. Sam Houston brought in the #1 JUCO WR in the country, a 6'-6" top 10 JUCO WR, and bring back national championship WRs Ife Adeyi and Noah Smith. The runningback and receiver rooms are the deepest position groups. Waiting in the wings is HS national champion trackstar Chris Hicks (He will return punts and kicks likely), former 4-star recruit and Texas WR Alvonte Woodard, New Mexico Military Institute JUCO national champion Malik Phillips, and the highest rated (247 sports) HS recruit Sam Houston has landed Lonnie Adkism. At runningback we're returning our highest production guy in Zach Hrbacek, added John Gentry out of Utah St, and have QB converted Jordan Yates who showed some serious flashes of speed and vision when running the ball. Noah Smith at WR will see some time at runningback as well. At tight end we return Jax Sherrard who is a really athletic dude who can block and catch passes and poses a deep threat for defenses and back up Freshman Thomas Jewett who was a highly touted HS TE with a big frame and received a redshirt last year during the transition.

Hopefully this helps break some of the optimism down for folks unaware or unfamiliar with what all the Bearkats had to do last year in order to be prepared for the FBS move. Keeler made his plans very clear before the season began how he was strategizing playing this first season. The question will become how long will it take the redshirts to knock the rust off before we see some real production out of either the offense or defense. With 3 very tough games to start the Bearkats being a battle tested squad is an understatement.

Ultimately this is why there are so many people that are high on the Bearkats or incredibly low on the Bearkats with anything between 0 and 12 wins as a possibility (I'm exaggerating). It will be interesting how the second best team in the FCS since 2010 will fare in our first FBS season. JMU does give us some confidence/ hope, but they had a few more ready to go pieces than we do.

Hoping the conference finishes like this.

1. 8-0 Liberty
2. 7-1 WKU
3. 6-2 NMSU
4. 5-3 FIU
5. 4-4 Jax St.
6. 3-5 MTSU
7. 2-6 UTEP
8. 1-7 La. Tech
9. 0-8 SHSU

(07-25-2023 10:23 PM)army56mike Wrote:  Hoping the conference finishes like this.

1. 8-0 Liberty
2. 7-1 WKU
3. 6-2 NMSU
4. 5-3 FIU
5. 4-4 Jax St.
6. 3-5 MTSU
7. 2-6 UTEP
8. 1-7 La. Tech
9. 0-8 SHSU

FIFY:

1. 9-0 Liberty
2. 7-2 WKU
3. 6-2 NMSU
4. 5-3 FIU
5. 4-4 Jax St.
6. 3-5 MTSU
7. 2-6 UTEP
8. 1-7 La. Tech
9. 0-8 SHSU

(07-25-2023 10:23 PM)army56mike Wrote:  Hoping the conference finishes like this.

1. 8-0 Liberty
2. 7-1 WKU
3. 6-2 NMSU
4. 5-3 FIU
5. 4-4 Jax St.
6. 3-5 MTSU
7. 2-6 UTEP
8. 1-7 La. Tech
9. 0-8 SHSU

I hate you

(07-25-2023 10:40 PM)Ewglenn Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 10:23 PM)army56mike Wrote:  Hoping the conference finishes like this.

1. 8-0 Liberty
2. 7-1 WKU
3. 6-2 NMSU
4. 5-3 FIU
5. 4-4 Jax St.
6. 3-5 MTSU
7. 2-6 UTEP
8. 1-7 La. Tech
9. 0-8 SHSU

I hate you

My hope is this:
1. 7-1 Liberty, WKU, MTSU
4. 5-3 NMSU
5. 3-5 FIU, UTEP, LT
8. 1-7 Jax St & SHSU

Tie breaker requires school presidents to do time trials in Judy's jeep.

(07-26-2023 09:46 AM)Keswick_Crusaders_Forever51 Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 10:40 PM)Ewglenn Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 10:23 PM)army56mike Wrote:  Hoping the conference finishes like this.

1. 8-0 Liberty
2. 7-1 WKU
3. 6-2 NMSU
4. 5-3 FIU
5. 4-4 Jax St.
6. 3-5 MTSU
7. 2-6 UTEP
8. 1-7 La. Tech
9. 0-8 SHSU

I hate you

My hope is this:
1. 7-1 Liberty, WKU, MTSU
4. 5-3 NMSU
5. 3-5 FIU, UTEP, LT
8. 1-7 Jax St & SHSU

Tie breaker requires school presidents to do time trials in Judy's jeep.

Tie-breaker is wins per budget dollar.

Here’s my take -

1. WKU - best odds to win it all IMO


2-6 Interchangeable and parity

I don’t see Liberty is strong as some in here, I watch them play numerous time last year. I wasn’t impressed, sure they beat BYU at home and Arkansas by two But they got destroyed by NMSU and lost to Toledo in their bowl game. Now that Hugh Freeze is gone I think Liberty will lose a few in conference. Their schedule is very favorable though, MTSU, La Tech and NMSU at home (three potential loses), I think they lose to UTEP, and WKU and possibly us or FIU on the road.

7-9 I think is about right, I don’t see us or SHSU, FIU with winning records

"Parity" sums it up nicely.

WKU is my clear leader, but I don't see them going undefeated in the conference.

On the other extreme, I don't see any teams going winless in the conference, either.

I think a lot of teams are going to be hovering a win above or below the .500 mark in conference play. A single play could spell the difference between 3rd place and 7th place.

I hope CUSA has its tiebreakers nailed down. We may need them this year.

To summarize how useful I think media polls are here's my ranking:

1. SHSU 14-0 *CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONS*
2. WKU 12-1 (Just because I'm starting to like a few of your posters on here so you only lose to Sam Houston) *Fiesta Bowl Champions*
3. MTSU 10-3 (You lose to SHSU and WKU but beat both BAMA and MIZZ and get beat by Murray St on a game winner) *Birmingham Bowl Champions against SEC* School makes plans to create a statue of Rick Stockstill for a 10 win season with 3 SEC victories!
4. LT 10-3 (You lose to every team above you but go undefeated against non-conference competition) *Hawaii bowl champions over Boise St for a sweet victory for Hank Bachmeier*
5. NMSU 9-4 (You too go undefeated in nonconference but lose in a buzzer beater against LT) *Camellia Bowl Champions*
6. Liberty 8-5 (You guys end up trying 6 different guys at QB and eventually find your starter after some long prayerful consideration.)
7. JSU 6-7 (JSU congrats on making it to a bowl game! CUSA did so good you were able to ride some coattails and have some dominoes fall your way)
8. UTEP 3-9 :'(
9. FIU 1-11 Good thing you scheduled UConn because Maine is going to be an FCS over FBS upset. Maybe next year....

Please sit back and bask in the crystal ball that is my official preseason media poll!!!

(07-26-2023 11:00 AM)JackedUp Wrote:  Here’s my take -

1. WKU - best odds to win it all IMO


2-6 Interchangeable and parity

I don’t see Liberty is strong as some in here, I watch them play numerous time last year. I wasn’t impressed, sure they beat BYU at home and Arkansas by two But they got destroyed by NMSU and lost to Toledo in their bowl game. Now that Hugh Freeze is gone I think Liberty will lose a few in conference. Their schedule is very favorable though, MTSU, La Tech and NMSU at home (three potential loses), I think they lose to UTEP, and WKU and possibly us or FIU on the road.

7-9 I think is about right, I don’t see us or SHSU, FIU with winning records

Not taking anything away from NMSU, but the team had just found out about Freeze leaving right before game time. The bowl game was coached by an interim coach with one foot out the door headed for Auburn to join Freeze as well. The latter part of the season last year was out of whack, thanks to Freeze’s courtship with Auburn. With that being said, this year is a toss up to how well we will do. We had a 50% turnover from last year as a result of a new coaching staff, the transfer portal and graduation. Coach Chadwell was able to bring in several players to replace the departed ones. Time will tell how they will perform. Excited about Chadwell being here, but this could very well be a transition year. The quarterback position is one of concern and we’re thin at the linebacker spot as well. I’m confident that we’ll have enough wins to be bowl eligible this season, just not sure how many wins that will be. Still excited and looking forward to our first season in CUSA.

Liberty or WKU will win the conference.
MTSU or Tech will surprise.
SHSU, NMSU or UTEP could shock
JSU, FIU gotta bring it.

And that's how this Tech fan sees it...

(07-26-2023 02:27 PM)Bearkat21 Wrote:  To summarize how useful I think media polls are here's my ranking:

1. SHSU 14-0 *CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONS*
2. WKU 12-1 (Just because I'm starting to like a few of your posters on here so you only lose to Sam Houston) *Fiesta Bowl Champions*
3. MTSU 10-3 (You lose to SHSU and WKU but beat both BAMA and MIZZ and get beat by Murray St on a game winner) *Birmingham Bowl Champions against SEC* School makes plans to create a statue of Rick Stockstill for a 10 win season with 3 SEC victories!
4. LT 10-3 (You lose to every team above you but go undefeated against non-conference competition) *Hawaii bowl champions over Boise St for a sweet victory for Hank Bachmeier*
5. NMSU 9-4 (You too go undefeated in nonconference but lose in a buzzer beater against LT) *Camellia Bowl Champions*
6. Liberty 8-5 (You guys end up trying 6 different guys at QB and eventually find your starter after some long prayerful consideration.)
7. JSU 6-7 (JSU congrats on making it to a bowl game! CUSA did so good you were able to ride some coattails and have some dominoes fall your way)
8. UTEP 3-9 :'(
9. FIU 1-11 Good thing you scheduled UConn because Maine is going to be an FCS over FBS upset. Maybe next year....

Please sit back and bask in the crystal ball that is my official preseason media poll!!!

Finally! I’m glad someone said it. This is what I come to message boards for.