(07-27-2023 03:25 AM)PirateJP Wrote:  So to those wanting all the service academics, what do you do with the Army Navy game? Personally I say play it in Veterans Day Monday before MNF.

That's a good option. Or Thanksgiving weekend would be another or the last game of the season. I'd love to see all the service academies in the AAC.

(07-27-2023 07:47 AM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  how is a conference that has a deal that pays $7 million per year that goes for another 12 years and that just added 4 teams that will only get half of the $7 million average for the remaining years of the deal going to add teams that will have to pay from $17 to $34 million (depending on what SDSU might end up and pay and any negotiations) to leave their current conference.....not to mention that conference has a new media deal to negotiate and they will have $17 million X whatever number of teams leave to split up

if two teams leave that would be at least $3.4 million (probably more) per remaining member to split up add that to the lowest anyone would pay to leave $17 million and that is $20.4 million they would be in the hole to join the AAC

their current TV deal pays more than the half shares that the 4 new members of the AAC will be getting for the next 12 years so even if they sign a new deal in a year or so that stays the exact same per team payout they will still be making more than the 4 new members of the AAC will be making and they will not have the $17 to $34 million exit fee hanging over their heads

even more so how is the AAC going to add those teams and not further dilute that $7 million average for the existing members (or the half share for new members) if ESPN does not come up with more money......and we know that ESPN did not come up with more money for the 4 new members they just agreed to pay the same money for 4 new members that they were paying for those that left and to have it split up between the 4 and they ask for two additional years on the contract to do that

FFS use some punctuation.

(07-27-2023 03:25 AM)PirateJP Wrote:  So to those wanting all the service academics, what do you do with the Army Navy game? Personally I say play it in Veterans Day Monday before MNF.

It's easy really. Just don't let them play during the regular season. Give the AAC championship game a flex date. In the event Army and Navy are the top 2 teams in the AAC the Army/Navy game doubles as the AAC championship game.

I get the argument for adding the other military academies.

Selfishly, I'd rather not face the triple option 2-3 times a year.

(07-27-2023 08:21 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(07-27-2023 07:47 AM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  how is a conference that has a deal that pays $7 million per year that goes for another 12 years and that just added 4 teams that will only get half of the $7 million average for the remaining years of the deal going to add teams that will have to pay from $17 to $34 million (depending on what SDSU might end up and pay and any negotiations) to leave their current conference.....not to mention that conference has a new media deal to negotiate and they will have $17 million X whatever number of teams leave to split up

if two teams leave that would be at least $3.4 million (probably more) per remaining member to split up add that to the lowest anyone would pay to leave $17 million and that is $20.4 million they would be in the hole to join the AAC

their current TV deal pays more than the half shares that the 4 new members of the AAC will be getting for the next 12 years so even if they sign a new deal in a year or so that stays the exact same per team payout they will still be making more than the 4 new members of the AAC will be making and they will not have the $17 to $34 million exit fee hanging over their heads

even more so how is the AAC going to add those teams and not further dilute that $7 million average for the existing members (or the half share for new members) if ESPN does not come up with more money......and we know that ESPN did not come up with more money for the 4 new members they just agreed to pay the same money for 4 new members that they were paying for those that left and to have it split up between the 4 and they ask for two additional years on the contract to do that

I think it's unlikely that we add any MWC teams. Even at $7m, it's just not worth playing a cross-country schedule for less than P5 money.

That said, I think the idea is that the MWC, who is renegotiating their media deal now, would no longer have a $35m exit fee in their new contract.

Consider the AAC back in ~2013. Unlike this round of realignment, where we were luckily in the middle of a longer term deal, we realigned in the middle of contract negations back then. The result was a $2m/year contract. I'm not saying the MWC would go down to $2m, but it could be different with a few departures.

But again, I still think it's unlikely. Say we get a perfect scenario where the PAC-12 adds SDSU, Fresno, Boise, UNLV, and completely leaves us alone. Sure, the MWC loses a lot of value. That said, in reaching back out to teams like CSU/AF, it's not worth it to come over to the AAC for ~5m, even if they are only making $3m at that time.

the exit fee has nothing to do with the TV contract

people seem to get these things confused a lot

take the Big 12 as an example their conference contract for membership that was signed in 2012 is for 99 years and it is that contract that contains the exit fee of two prior years distributions

so that exit fee has nothing to do with the TV deal(s) at all

the Big 12 GOR has no exit fee and it is for the length of the TV contracts that are in place......people often say "this conference or that conference needs to extend their GOR so no one can leave while they negotiate a new TV deal".......but that is something that makes no sense because no university is going to give up 100% control of their media rights prior to having a clue what the TV contract would be especially one that might be just starting negotiations (or one that has not even started yet)

members will commit to an exit fee because that is a KNOWN amount of money and the expectation is that they will be leaving and paying that exit fee for something much more lucrative....but that will not be possible without their media rights so they are not going to sign those away into the future without knowing what they will be paid for every year of those media rights being granted to the conference

so because the MWC has an upcoming TV deal negotiation that has nothing to do with the amount of the MWC exit fee or how long it might be in place for

(07-27-2023 08:49 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(07-27-2023 08:20 AM)Owls9878 Wrote:  

(07-27-2023 07:47 AM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  how is a conference that has a deal that pays $7 million per year that goes for another 12 years and that just added 4 teams that will only get half of the $7 million average for the remaining years of the deal going to add teams that will have to pay from $17 to $34 million (depending on what SDSU might end up and pay and any negotiations) to leave their current conference.....not to mention that conference has a new media deal to negotiate and they will have $17 million X whatever number of teams leave to split up

if two teams leave that would be at least $3.4 million (probably more) per remaining member to split up add that to the lowest anyone would pay to leave $17 million and that is $20.4 million they would be in the hole to join the AAC

their current TV deal pays more than the half shares that the 4 new members of the AAC will be getting for the next 12 years so even if they sign a new deal in a year or so that stays the exact same per team payout they will still be making more than the 4 new members of the AAC will be making and they will not have the $17 to $34 million exit fee hanging over their heads

even more so how is the AAC going to add those teams and not further dilute that $7 million average for the existing members (or the half share for new members) if ESPN does not come up with more money......and we know that ESPN did not come up with more money for the 4 new members they just agreed to pay the same money for 4 new members that they were paying for those that left and to have it split up between the 4 and they ask for two additional years on the contract to do that

ESPN will pay full shares for programs that are worth it (AFA, CSU, Army, Boise, etc.) No offense to the new AAC members, but they don’t have that kind of pull.

Not that I think it will happen as eventually most any team in the MWC worth taking will likely end up in the PAC but the question wouldn't be if ESPN would pay full shares for them it's would the CUSA6 vote for it while remaining at a lesser payout themselves?

Lol just kick them out then. If any of those teams want to come they will come. We’re not talking about adding Sun Belt East teams here.

(07-27-2023 08:50 AM)hooverblazer Wrote:  

(07-27-2023 08:31 AM)cscottl1981 Wrote:  

(07-27-2023 06:06 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  I still think any AAC school bolts to the PAC if invited buuuut I think the PAC will start raiding the MWC first. That being said I think all AAC school are now off the table for the Big12 as they have shown they can poach a "Power" league.

Oh and a big "Welcome to the Club" to the PAC12 as they lose the "power" moniker in the next few years. The road to the playoffs just got easier for the AAC.

And damn if the Big12 aint getting spread the **** out. Gonna start calling them BUSA12.

I’m not sure the B12 adding Colorado means they could poach other P5 teams. I guess we’ll see. Maybe it’s a game of follow the money, but CU basically hasn’t been relevant since Kordell Stewart.

Having Deion makes them relevant now even though he's yet to coach a game.

Sure Deion makes them more relevant. However, they were one of the best teams in the country back then.

They might win with Deion, but you kinda missed the point. CU went back to the same conference they used to be in. This isn’t some amazing grab by the B12.

Colorado wasn’t a fan of UT running the show back in the day and now the Longhorns are on their way out. Musical chairs; conference style.

(07-27-2023 09:57 AM)cscottl1981 Wrote:  

(07-27-2023 08:50 AM)hooverblazer Wrote:  

(07-27-2023 08:31 AM)cscottl1981 Wrote:  

(07-27-2023 06:06 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  I still think any AAC school bolts to the PAC if invited buuuut I think the PAC will start raiding the MWC first. That being said I think all AAC school are now off the table for the Big12 as they have shown they can poach a "Power" league.

Oh and a big "Welcome to the Club" to the PAC12 as they lose the "power" moniker in the next few years. The road to the playoffs just got easier for the AAC.

And damn if the Big12 aint getting spread the **** out. Gonna start calling them BUSA12.

I’m not sure the B12 adding Colorado means they could poach other P5 teams. I guess we’ll see. Maybe it’s a game of follow the money, but CU basically hasn’t been relevant since Kordell Stewart.

Having Deion makes them relevant now even though he's yet to coach a game.

Sure Deion makes them more relevant. However, they were one of the best teams in the country back then.

They might win with Deion, but you kinda missed the point. CU went back to the same conference they used to be in. This isn’t some amazing grab by the B12.

Colorado wasn’t a fan of UT running the show back in the day and now the Longhorns are on their way out. Musical chairs; conference style.

I imagine that Utah will not be far behind.

(07-27-2023 10:02 AM)MAN4UAB Wrote:  

(07-27-2023 09:57 AM)cscottl1981 Wrote:  

(07-27-2023 08:50 AM)hooverblazer Wrote:  

(07-27-2023 08:31 AM)cscottl1981 Wrote:  

(07-27-2023 06:06 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  I still think any AAC school bolts to the PAC if invited buuuut I think the PAC will start raiding the MWC first. That being said I think all AAC school are now off the table for the Big12 as they have shown they can poach a "Power" league.

Oh and a big "Welcome to the Club" to the PAC12 as they lose the "power" moniker in the next few years. The road to the playoffs just got easier for the AAC.

And damn if the Big12 aint getting spread the **** out. Gonna start calling them BUSA12.

I’m not sure the B12 adding Colorado means they could poach other P5 teams. I guess we’ll see. Maybe it’s a game of follow the money, but CU basically hasn’t been relevant since Kordell Stewart.

Having Deion makes them relevant now even though he's yet to coach a game.

Sure Deion makes them more relevant. However, they were one of the best teams in the country back then.

They might win with Deion, but you kinda missed the point. CU went back to the same conference they used to be in. This isn’t some amazing grab by the B12.

Colorado wasn’t a fan of UT running the show back in the day and now the Longhorns are on their way out. Musical chairs; conference style.

I imagine that Utah will not be far behind.

Fine by me. I already got my “AAC4Life” tat.

As long as the Pac keeps more than 2 teams, SMU and Tulane would have to leave. Oregon State and Washington State are not reasons for AAC teams to leave, but if you can pair up with Stanford, Cal, Arizona State, Utah that would be an upgrade for the departing teams.

(07-27-2023 11:46 AM)mustangxc Wrote:  As long as the Pac keeps more than 2 teams, SMU and Tulane would have to leave. Oregon State and Washington State are not reasons for AAC teams to leave, but if you can pair up with Stanford, Cal, Arizona State, Utah that would be an upgrade for the departing teams.

Just going into an A5 conference is an upgrade.

(07-27-2023 08:58 AM)JayEllis Wrote:  

(07-27-2023 03:25 AM)PirateJP Wrote:  So to those wanting all the service academics, what do you do with the Army Navy game? Personally I say play it in Veterans Day Monday before MNF.

That's a good option. Or Thanksgiving weekend would be another or the last game of the season. I'd love to see all the service academies in the AAC.

No, neither of those is a good option.

(07-27-2023 09:03 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(07-27-2023 03:25 AM)PirateJP Wrote:  So to those wanting all the service academics, what do you do with the Army Navy game? Personally I say play it in Veterans Day Monday before MNF.

It's easy really. Just don't let them play during the regular season. Give the AAC championship game a flex date. In the event Army and Navy are the top 2 teams in the AAC the Army/Navy game doubles as the AAC championship game.

Correct that you make Army and Navy NEVER meet in conference play. ACC teams have played one another as out-of-conference.

But you can't flex the CCG a week. First, two separate rights holders. Also, you can't have the AAC CCG six days after CFP selection and bowl selection. (This is different from scenario we almost had in 2016)

So the least bad way to do it still has a chance (albeit a very small chance) of CCG between the two then rematch on CBS a week later. Not great but that's the least bad way to do it.

(07-27-2023 09:21 AM)MGNation92 Wrote:  I get the argument for adding the other military academies.

Selfishly, I'd rather not face the triple option 2-3 times a year.

Truth be told, I'd prefer not being the second or third look an opponent gets at a similar offense.

(07-27-2023 02:10 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(07-27-2023 09:03 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(07-27-2023 03:25 AM)PirateJP Wrote:  So to those wanting all the service academics, what do you do with the Army Navy game? Personally I say play it in Veterans Day Monday before MNF.

It's easy really. Just don't let them play during the regular season. Give the AAC championship game a flex date. In the event Army and Navy are the top 2 teams in the AAC the Army/Navy game doubles as the AAC championship game.

Correct that you make Army and Navy NEVER meet in conference play. ACC teams have played one another as out-of-conference.

But you can't flex the CCG a week. First, two separate rights holders. Also, you can't have the AAC CCG six days after CFP selection and bowl selection. (This is different from scenario we almost had in 2016)

So the least bad way to do it still has a chance (albeit a very small chance) of CCG between the two then rematch on CBS a week later. Not great but that's the least bad way to do it.

I didn't realize how the TV money worked out. Hadn't even thought of that aspect.

Can just imagine the think tanks in the PAC 12 trying to figure out all this bs. They have a TV rights deal to deal with plus no Colo now....AND.....no exit fee for them. The rest of the PAC 12 sees that too.
Everyone has their predictions. It's still too early.
My 2 cents are the PAC 12 takes SDSU and Boise and SMU and.................????UNLV?, Fres St?, CSU?...ect...
All options that leave the PAC 12 a shell of itself.
I'll tell ya....I'm looking to get out now while the exit fee is $0.00 if I'm in the PAC 12.

(07-26-2023 11:37 PM)Ourland Wrote:  My gut tells me that they only add SDSU for right now, unless...

Arizona, Washington, and Oregon also bolt to the Big12. If so, I think SMU decides to stay in The American. PAC then adds UNLV, Colorado State, and Fresno State.

In this scenario, Utah and Arizona State stay trapped in the PAC, and it loses no more members.

The American adds Air Force and Army to get to 16. If SMU leaves, Boise State or some other worthy MWC school is available.

MWC grabs Montana, NDSU, New Mexico State, and UTEP. It lives to fight another day, but is weakened to CUSA level for now.

How pissed is SDSU this didn't happen 28 days ago?

(07-27-2023 08:20 AM)Owls9878 Wrote:  

(07-27-2023 07:47 AM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  how is a conference that has a deal that pays $7 million per year that goes for another 12 years and that just added 4 teams that will only get half of the $7 million average for the remaining years of the deal going to add teams that will have to pay from $17 to $34 million (depending on what SDSU might end up and pay and any negotiations) to leave their current conference.....not to mention that conference has a new media deal to negotiate and they will have $17 million X whatever number of teams leave to split up

if two teams leave that would be at least $3.4 million (probably more) per remaining member to split up add that to the lowest anyone would pay to leave $17 million and that is $20.4 million they would be in the hole to join the AAC

their current TV deal pays more than the half shares that the 4 new members of the AAC will be getting for the next 12 years so even if they sign a new deal in a year or so that stays the exact same per team payout they will still be making more than the 4 new members of the AAC will be making and they will not have the $17 to $34 million exit fee hanging over their heads

even more so how is the AAC going to add those teams and not further dilute that $7 million average for the existing members (or the half share for new members) if ESPN does not come up with more money......and we know that ESPN did not come up with more money for the 4 new members they just agreed to pay the same money for 4 new members that they were paying for those that left and to have it split up between the 4 and they ask for two additional years on the contract to do that

ESPN will pay full shares for programs that are worth it (AFA, CSU, Army, Boise, etc.) No offense to the new AAC members, but they don’t have that kind of pull.

Right. If the MWC begins to lose members, it loses negotiating power with TV executives, and its value decreases. On the other hand, the four schools you mention do bring more value than the CUSA 6, meaning the TV contract and payouts would all have to be renegotiated.

if the pac 12 holds strong... someone from here is getting an invite

Here's to hoping the PAC somehow pulls a sweetheart media deal.