(07-31-2023 07:20 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Some leaks of the deal make it sound like its $20million per team for up to 12 teams, but with other options that will drive it to $30million for the remaining members. (They are kicking in another $70million to cover the comcast fiasco, of which CU gets none (or anyone else who leaves) plus add enough members to get to 12, of which the new members would be 50% shares. )

I could see a case where 3 new members are are 50% media share for 5 years, but that the other conference distributions start rising immediately, so that after 3 years the new members are making around $20million each, even at 50 percent media share.

Im not following the math here. You have 12 teams each earning 20 million from the network (240 million). The league gives the 3 new teams only 50%---which is 10 million leaving 210 million for the existing 9 members. So---the existing teams each earn 23.3 million per year with their debt to Comcast dispatched. The one time fee goes to Comcast---so its a non factor in take home pay. The 3 new teams would only get 10 million per year in media dollars---as the Comcast dollars would not be a factor.

If this is the real deal, I dont see how people are getting the math to say its 30 million plus per year---not to mention the schools arent going to like that there is little to no linear. Sounds like they would have to hit the kind of Pac12 Network subscriber numbers they have never seen before to pick up enough additional revenue to even get to 25 million each. Will Oregon and Washington sign a GOR for that---and will a lack of a GOR cause the offer to move even lower?

(07-31-2023 07:48 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(07-31-2023 06:34 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

Checkmate

Checkmate?

That's about the best news the PAC has had in literally MONTHS.

Utah and ASU have been adamant about staying in the PAC. If this is true, then cross Arizona off the Big XII wish list.

so what part of the 20M and almost all streaming makes that good news for the PAC. I see it as Utah and ASU don't want to hear the B12 saying they're done at 14. If they all go as 3 the B12 will take them all and talk fox into going pro-rata w/ the last 2.

The TV deal will be a make or break tomorrow.

The one thing that won't be happening is the Big 12 playing at 13. For starters, you have to drop to 8 conference games, which isn't going to happen. Plus, if another Pac school doesn't join, it's reasonable to expect UConn or even Memphis would take their place.

Doesn’t UO and UW have to agree as well??? Haha… they are probably on the phone with Petitti now saying, “what’s the highest number you can offer us as a pair?”

(07-31-2023 07:59 PM)cc22 Wrote:  The one thing that won't be happening is the Big 12 playing at 13. For starters, you have to drop to 8 conference games, which isn't going to happen. Plus, if another Pac school doesn't join, it's reasonable to expect UConn or even Memphis would take their place.

B12 could swoop in and take SDSU too

(07-31-2023 07:56 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  The TV deal will be a make or break tomorrow.

I don’t know. All these presidents know what numbers are at this point and none has come out with a preemptive show of force saying they are staying in the pac12.

Thamel is reporting 3 schools are in “solidarity” which is odd considering, they are all supposed to be in solidarity.

(07-31-2023 08:02 PM)Owls9878 Wrote:  

(07-31-2023 07:59 PM)cc22 Wrote:  The one thing that won't be happening is the Big 12 playing at 13. For starters, you have to drop to 8 conference games, which isn't going to happen. Plus, if another Pac school doesn't join, it's reasonable to expect UConn or even Memphis would take their place.

B12 could swoop in and take SDSU too

They could, but won't. BY was pretty clear Pacific Time Zone wasn't on his near-term to-do list.

(07-31-2023 07:59 PM)cc22 Wrote:  The one thing that won't be happening is the Big 12 playing at 13. For starters, you have to drop to 8 conference games, which isn't going to happen. Plus, if another Pac school doesn't join, it's reasonable to expect UConn or even Memphis would take their place.

If it came to that i don't get why Memphis or SDSU don't get that spot. They are both good at fb and bball. One gets you in CA one fills a gap in your geography in the "eastern" B12.

UConn great bballl NYC market. Is that really better though. BY is probably overvaluing bball a little too much.

Memphis buyout is what 18M, SDSU 34M, UConn is what?? probably the least

So we were right that UA/ASU were a package deal. Not sure how Utah fits in… also not convinced they’d get the 16th spot. Although, unless Oregon or Washington call up the XII, Utah it is.

(07-31-2023 07:59 PM)cc22 Wrote:  The one thing that won't be happening is the Big 12 playing at 13. For starters, you have to drop to 8 conference games, which isn't going to happen. Plus, if another Pac school doesn't join, it's reasonable to expect UConn or even Memphis would take their place.

Nah. Thats a temporary issue. You dont add someone to take care of a one year inconvenience. The Big10 played with an odd number for years. I suspect the B12 will exercise more patience than people think.

(07-31-2023 08:03 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  

(07-31-2023 07:59 PM)cc22 Wrote:  The one thing that won't be happening is the Big 12 playing at 13. For starters, you have to drop to 8 conference games, which isn't going to happen. Plus, if another Pac school doesn't join, it's reasonable to expect UConn or even Memphis would take their place.

If it came to that i don't get why Memphis or SDSU don't get that spot. They are both good at fb and bball. One gets you in CA one fills a gap in your geography in the "eastern" B12.

UConn great bballl NYC market. Is that really better though. BY is probably overvaluing bball a little too much.

Memphis buyout is what 18M, SDSU 34M, UConn is what?? probably the least

The B12 doesn’t pay prorata for G5 schools. Could complicate things. Do they pay prorata for UConn? If so, that’s probably a deciding factor.

(07-31-2023 08:05 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-31-2023 07:59 PM)cc22 Wrote:  The one thing that won't be happening is the Big 12 playing at 13. For starters, you have to drop to 8 conference games, which isn't going to happen. Plus, if another Pac school doesn't join, it's reasonable to expect UConn or even Memphis would take their place.

Nah. Thats a temporary issue. You dont add someone to take care of a one year inconvenience. The Big10 played with an odd number for years. I suspect the B12 will exercise more patience than people think.

If the TV contracts stipulate 9 conference games then it's surely an issue. I don't know that it does, but it very well could.

Anyways, McMurphy has reported as much (and has been right on this all along) that they will be at 14 (or 16) in 2024. If they can't get a Pac school, it'd be an upset if they didn't add UConn.

(07-31-2023 07:55 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-31-2023 07:20 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Some leaks of the deal make it sound like its $20million per team for up to 12 teams, but with other options that will drive it to $30million for the remaining members. (They are kicking in another $70million to cover the comcast fiasco, of which CU gets none (or anyone else who leaves) plus add enough members to get to 12, of which the new members would be 50% shares. )

I could see a case where 3 new members are are 50% media share for 5 years, but that the other conference distributions start rising immediately, so that after 3 years the new members are making around $20million each, even at 50 percent media share.

Im not following the math here. You have 12 teams each earning 20 million from the network (240 million). The league gives the 3 new teams only 50%---which is 10 million leaving 210 million for the existing 9 members. So---the existing teams each earn 23.3 million per year with their debt to Comcast dispatched. The one time fee goes to Comcast---so its a non factor in take home pay. The 3 new teams would only get 10 million per year in media dollars---as the Comcast dollars would not be a factor.

If this is the real deal, I dont see how people are getting the math to say its 30 million plus per year---not to mention the schools arent going to like that there is little to no linear. Sounds like they would have to hit the kind of Pac12 Network subscriber numbers they have never seen before to pick up enough additional revenue to even get to 25 million each. Will Oregon and Washington sign a GOR for that---and will a lack of a GOR cause the offer to move even lower?

Oh I agree the math doesnt make total sense, its just what they reported.

Also, they may have been meaning to say that three of the pac schools would get $30million due to some sort of unequal distribution, which may be the reason why Az, Az St and Utah are now in lockstep with each other.

I'm also not sure which schools would move to the pac short term for 50% media share. ( short term as in the deal is 5 years or so) AAC schools would need to pay $18million for leaving, so they would need additional conference distributions to be on the order of another $10million per year to really make it work. And there isnt a MWC school out there thats going to pay $34million in order to make $50million over 5 years. Thats probably less than they are already making in the MWC.

(07-31-2023 07:53 PM)uconnwhaler Wrote:  

(07-31-2023 07:48 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(07-31-2023 06:34 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

Checkmate

Checkmate?

That's about the best news the PAC has had in literally MONTHS.

Utah and ASU have been adamant about staying in the PAC. If this is true, then cross Arizona off the Big XII wish list.

It is absolutely amazing people here can't see this is exactly what it means.

It was no secret Colorado was going to jump, and surely Colorado would have preferred go with all four, and if these three were all tied they could have gone last week.

Oh no...

What is amazing is that all the same people who scoffed at the idea of a PAC school going to the Big 12 in the first place are now the ones who absolutely can't accept that everything has changed.

There's nothing fluky or isolated about these circumstances. Colorado is not a bottom feeder, their departure is significant and is just a twist of the knife in an already gaping wound. The only reason they left first is because they developed a lower tolerance for all the BS...likely because the PAC never really delivered on their promises to CU in the first place over the last decade.

(07-31-2023 08:03 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  

(07-31-2023 07:59 PM)cc22 Wrote:  The one thing that won't be happening is the Big 12 playing at 13. For starters, you have to drop to 8 conference games, which isn't going to happen. Plus, if another Pac school doesn't join, it's reasonable to expect UConn or even Memphis would take their place.

If it came to that i don't get why Memphis or SDSU don't get that spot. They are both good at fb and bball. One gets you in CA one fills a gap in your geography in the "eastern" B12.

UConn great bballl NYC market. Is that really better though. BY is probably overvaluing bball a little too much.

Memphis buyout is what 18M, SDSU 34M, UConn is what?? probably the least

Nah, UConn's is like $30M to the Big East. However, I have no doubt UConn will accept the invite if it comes.

(07-31-2023 08:05 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-31-2023 07:59 PM)cc22 Wrote:  The one thing that won't be happening is the Big 12 playing at 13. For starters, you have to drop to 8 conference games, which isn't going to happen. Plus, if another Pac school doesn't join, it's reasonable to expect UConn or even Memphis would take their place.

Nah. Thats a temporary issue. You dont add someone to take care of a one year inconvenience. The Big10 played with an odd number for years. I suspect the B12 will exercise more patience than people think.

How is it a one-year inconvenience? What happens in a year to change anything?

And the Big 10 played with 11 teams and an 8-game schedule. (So did the AAC for a while)

(07-31-2023 08:10 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(07-31-2023 07:53 PM)uconnwhaler Wrote:  

(07-31-2023 07:48 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(07-31-2023 06:34 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

Checkmate

Checkmate?

That's about the best news the PAC has had in literally MONTHS.

Utah and ASU have been adamant about staying in the PAC. If this is true, then cross Arizona off the Big XII wish list.

It is absolutely amazing people here can't see this is exactly what it means.

It was no secret Colorado was going to jump, and surely Colorado would have preferred go with all four, and if these three were all tied they could have gone last week.

Oh no...

What is amazing is that all the same people who scoffed at the idea of a PAC school going to the Big 12 in the first place are now the ones who absolutely can't accept that everything has changed.

There's nothing fluky or isolated about these circumstances. Colorado is not a bottom feeder, their departure is significant and is just a twist of the knife in an already gaping wound. The only reason they left first is because they developed a lower tolerance for all the BS...likely because the PAC never really delivered on their promises to CU in the first place over the last decade.

1-11 is not a bottom feeder?

Reports of Arizona leaving began last week. The rumored details of the presentation are $20 million and even less exposure than they have now. It makes total sense why the C4 would align in solidarity.

If every single PAC program isn't trying to jump ship, then they have resigned themselves to a sunken ship.

(07-31-2023 06:50 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  Read the story by Thamel on the espn site.

It says they all stay or all go. It is a long, detailed story which is well written and the SECOND

MOST important news of the day--IMHO.

(1st--of course--the news of media PAC figures to be presented).

I've felt this way all along. None of them, not even CU, WANTED to leave. Just like USCLA, they were forced to leave due to the ineptitude of the Conference office over a period of decades, culminating in the past year of particularly egregious failure.