(09-02-2023 09:16 AM)polkhigh Wrote:  Nobody is leaving the SBC or MWC for the AAC.

SBC has eyes on ECU, Memphis, USF, Missouri State, Delaware, and Louisiana Tech; way before WKU or MTSU.

Delaware and Missouri State are currently the best expansion options for the SBC. East Carolina and Louisiana would be a last ditch effort if they couldn't get anyone else. Although, I wouldn't be surprised if East Carolina, Memphis and South Florida ended up in the ACC at some point.

Delaware maybe the best option within the G5 and FCS, Army would be the only sure bet better expansion target.

(09-01-2023 03:56 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 02:32 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Out west, the WCC is down to 8 schools. Cue Grand Canyon and Seattle. These additions get the league back to 10 members.

You're working under the false presumption that the WCC WANTS 10 members.

They don't. They went to 10 solely because BYU fell into their lap and Pacific (who'd been calling them and begging for decades) facilitated a better configuration for the league with BYU.

BYU brought the WCC:
- a "second Saint Mary's" in men's basketball.
- a "second Gonzaga" in women's basketball.
- a Top 20 volleyball team.
- a SECOND national TV deal's worth of exposure on BYUtv

The WCC can't FIT 18 conference games between their ESPN timeslots at Christmas (spot in Hawaii tournament) and WCC Tournament; which is one reason they dropped to 16 games despite having 10 schools.

Grand Canyon brings an academic reputation WCC presidents want no part of; They're not a candidate. Seattle's size and facilities leave a lot to be desired (and you don't placate Gonzaga by saying the word "Seattle" out loud. Even if Gonzaga leaves the WCC isn't inviting Seattle for a while. Because sometimes things don't pan out -- like SDSU/Boise to the Big East or SDSU to the Pac-12, so you leave the spot warm for them).

Any WCC expansion talk would have Cal Baptist as the #1 candidate. But standing pat is the most likely scenario; being slow and methodical on expectations for CBU and Seattle (like the way they were with Pacific) will be the play.

If Air Force decides to go independent does the WCC grab them?

(09-01-2023 04:14 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think the AAC holds—no one adds value and actually 13 works quite well—you have unofficial divisions of Tulsa/UNT/UTSA/Rice/Tulane/Memphis and Temple/ECU/Charlotte/USF/FAU/UAB. Navy plays 4 from each group each year. The remaining conference schedule is filled in with cross division play.

The MWC payouts aren’t high enough and no one in the AAC can afford the exit fee. Attracting Gonzaga is a distinct possibility though.

If the WCC loses Gonzaga, they replace with Seattle.

By and large, realignment stops there.

I think the MWC makes a pitch for the western AAC schools. They may not come but I suspect a pitch will be made.

Someone (I don't remember who, unfortunately) made a thread stating that Army and the AAC were talking to each other concerning possible league membership in football only, according to Pete Thamel.

(09-01-2023 02:32 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Whoa. Conference realignment is running down the tracks at a 1,000 miles per hour.

With the additions of SMU, Cal, and Stanford, the ACC (and the rest of the P4) are now done.

That leaves the remaining dominoes:

First up are OSU and WSU. Though Oregon State would like to rebuild the Pac-12 in its own image, I do not see that happening. What I do see happening is the MW schools and OSU and WSU merging under the Pac-12 name. These schools then invite Gonzaga to get to a 14/14 football/basketball split. The MW is officially dead.

With the departure of SMU, the American looks to add a 14th member for inventory purposes. Ultimately, the league adds Texas State to bolster its presence in Texas.

The Sun Belt is now down to 13 schools. The league decides WKU is the best fit and invites the Hilltoppers.

Down to 9 members, CUSA looks to expand again. EKU checks the most boxes and no longer needs to deal with politics associated with WKU.

Out west, the WCC is down to 8 schools. Cue Grand Canyon and Seattle. These additions get the league back to 10 members.

This leaves Division 1 with 362 schools, 31 conferences, 134 FBS schools, and 128 FCS schools as of 7/1/25.

I think most everyone expects some sort of merge between the MWC and the remains of the PAC (the new MPAC).

But for the rest, let's be bold : )

FSU, NC, Clemson, and VT (and espn), convince the rest of the ACC to let them go to the SEC for some sort of structured deal.

The ACC backfills with USF, UConn, Memphis, Tulane, and Navy - Making them 17+1+1.

Add SMU, and that's 5 down from the AAC.

The MPAC takes what they want from the western AAC/CUSA.

Temple, seeing the writing on the wall, pairs with WKU to the MAC.

The SB takes what they want from what's left of the AAC/CUSA, if anything.

espn and CBS (who also have media deals with CUSA) use this as a way out of the AAC media deals.

The remains of the AAC and CUSA merge in some way.

And realignment is over for awhile.

(09-02-2023 09:40 AM)polkhigh Wrote:  

(09-02-2023 09:20 AM)surrealpirate Wrote:  

(09-02-2023 09:16 AM)polkhigh Wrote:  Nobody is leaving the SBC or MWC for the AAC.

SBC has eyes on ECU, Memphis, USF, Missouri State, Delaware, and Louisiana Tech; way before WKU or MTSU.

Slow down there turbo

You're about to experience what Marshall and Southern Miss went through after the exodus or 2012.

Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, SMU are gone. Your conference replaced them with UNC-C, FAU, NTSU, UTSA...

Memphis will be next to jump ship.

Not for the Sun Belt, they won't. ACC or Big XII, yes, if the offer comes. Not sure that it will.

(09-02-2023 12:12 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  I don't know if the press conference will be next week, but I'll announce a non-FBS domino falling next week....maybe...Wednesday afternoon? It's a done deal.

Interesting. If it isn't a d2 call-up my guess is someone like Stephen F. Austin to CUSA to give commissioner Judy another school in Texas in the event of UTEP leaving.

Although Matt's will happen first, the next FBS move is taking shape:

(09-03-2023 12:50 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Although Matt's will happen first, the next FBS move is taking shape:

2Pac

(09-02-2023 07:04 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 02:32 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Whoa. Conference realignment is running down the tracks at a 1,000 miles per hour.

With the additions of SMU, Cal, and Stanford, the ACC (and the rest of the P4) are now done.

That leaves the remaining dominoes:

First up are OSU and WSU. Though Oregon State would like to rebuild the Pac-12 in its own image, I do not see that happening. What I do see happening is the MW schools and OSU and WSU merging under the Pac-12 name. These schools then invite Gonzaga to get to a 14/14 football/basketball split. The MW is officially dead.

With the departure of SMU, the American looks to add a 14th member for inventory purposes. Ultimately, the league adds Texas State to bolster its presence in Texas.

The Sun Belt is now down to 13 schools. The league decides WKU is the best fit and invites the Hilltoppers.

Down to 9 members, CUSA looks to expand again. EKU checks the most boxes and no longer needs to deal with politics associated with WKU.

Out west, the WCC is down to 8 schools. Cue Grand Canyon and Seattle. These additions get the league back to 10 members.

This leaves Division 1 with 362 schools, 31 conferences, 134 FBS schools, and 128 FCS schools as of 7/1/25.

I think most everyone expects some sort of merge between the MWC and the remains of the PAC (the new MPAC).

But for the rest, let's be bold : )

FSU, NC, Clemson, and VT (and espn), convince the rest of the ACC to let them go to the SEC for some sort of structured deal.

The ACC backfills with USF, UConn, Memphis, Tulane, and Navy - Making them 17+1+1.

Add SMU, and that's 5 down from the AAC.

The MPAC takes what they want from the western AAC/CUSA.

Temple, seeing the writing on the wall, pairs with WKU to the MAC.

The SB takes what they want from what's left of the AAC/CUSA, if anything.

espn and CBS (who also have media deals with CUSA) use this as a way out of the AAC media deals.

The remains of the AAC and CUSA merge in some way.

And realignment is over for awhile.

I certainly hope not

(09-03-2023 01:02 PM)surrealpirate Wrote:  

(09-02-2023 07:04 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 02:32 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Whoa. Conference realignment is running down the tracks at a 1,000 miles per hour.

With the additions of SMU, Cal, and Stanford, the ACC (and the rest of the P4) are now done.

That leaves the remaining dominoes:

First up are OSU and WSU. Though Oregon State would like to rebuild the Pac-12 in its own image, I do not see that happening. What I do see happening is the MW schools and OSU and WSU merging under the Pac-12 name. These schools then invite Gonzaga to get to a 14/14 football/basketball split. The MW is officially dead.

With the departure of SMU, the American looks to add a 14th member for inventory purposes. Ultimately, the league adds Texas State to bolster its presence in Texas.

The Sun Belt is now down to 13 schools. The league decides WKU is the best fit and invites the Hilltoppers.

Down to 9 members, CUSA looks to expand again. EKU checks the most boxes and no longer needs to deal with politics associated with WKU.

Out west, the WCC is down to 8 schools. Cue Grand Canyon and Seattle. These additions get the league back to 10 members.

This leaves Division 1 with 362 schools, 31 conferences, 134 FBS schools, and 128 FCS schools as of 7/1/25.

I think most everyone expects some sort of merge between the MWC and the remains of the PAC (the new MPAC).

But for the rest, let's be bold : )

FSU, NC, Clemson, and VT (and espn), convince the rest of the ACC to let them go to the SEC for some sort of structured deal.

The ACC backfills with USF, UConn, Memphis, Tulane, and Navy - Making them 17+1+1.

Add SMU, and that's 5 down from the AAC.

The MPAC takes what they want from the western AAC/CUSA.

Temple, seeing the writing on the wall, pairs with WKU to the MAC.

The SB takes what they want from what's left of the AAC/CUSA, if anything.

espn and CBS (who also have media deals with CUSA) use this as a way out of the AAC media deals.

The remains of the AAC and CUSA merge in some way.

And realignment is over for awhile.

I certainly hope not

In the above, it's possible that ECU gets an ACC invite instead of UConn. The question mark is simply a question of whether the ACC wants to replace NC with another North Carolina school. They might, or they might not.

There's also the question of whether the ACC wants UConn, after years of saying no...

(09-02-2023 06:09 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  Delaware maybe the best option within the G5 and FCS, Army would be the only sure bet better expansion target.

Tell me more. I don't have more than a cursory awareness of Delaware and what they might bring to the table.

Delaware is not joining the Sun Belt unless Delaware is planning on replacing a university president, AD, and multiple board members in the next few weeks

(09-03-2023 06:55 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  Delaware is not joining the Sun Belt unless Delaware is planning on replacing a university president, AD, and multiple board members in the next few weeks

Matt with the scoop!

(09-03-2023 06:55 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  Delaware is not joining the Sun Belt unless Delaware is planning on replacing a university president, AD, and multiple board members in the next few weeks

Is there something else related to this that you're expecting to happen in the next few weeks?

(09-03-2023 06:55 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  Delaware is not joining the Sun Belt unless Delaware is planning on replacing a university president, AD, and multiple board members in the next few weeks

"Weeks"? Assuming you meant "years" but either way, Delaware should have moved up decades ago but they've lost a couple of generations worth of fanbases because the old guard rather see them rot on the vine. Such a waste of potential, would love to have a rekindled Delaware in JMU's conference.

(09-03-2023 06:55 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  Delaware is not joining the Sun Belt unless Delaware is planning on replacing a university president, AD, and multiple board members in the next few weeks

Good!

Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, North Dakota & ND St., South Dakota & SD St., Montana & Montana St. and Idaho and Idaho St. are in their best place where they are right now. They just don't have the size and resources being in a small state to justify FBS and the higher subsidies. Except for Wyoming, none of the states smaller than Hawaii have an FBS team. Vermont and Alaska don't have any college football teams (last I checked).

(09-01-2023 04:27 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 03:10 PM)Crayton Wrote:  I don’t think the AAC backfills. ESPN is not going to pay a replacement team at the SMU level. Unless the contract doesn’t stipulate another renegotiation in which case the American keeps SMU’s pay but ‘has’ to expand to maintain inventory levels.

The Pac assets may be worth more (though they also have greater liabilities), but the MW name may be better at this present time. To the fan it looks like the Mountain West expands by 2 (3? with Gonzaga) but on paper the Pac takes the MW teams and name. Is Gloria confident a TV deal in the bush would be worth more than the one in hand?

MWC is not confident in a new contract for 2024. They will add OSU and WSU, pushing CBS and FOX to pay for them above the current members. They may open a new contract window with these two schools added if CBS and FOX are willing to do so at this time (they have three years remaining, two years with OSU and WSU on board). Otherwise, they'll wait to open a bit closer to the expiration date in of July 1st, 2026.

As for Pac-12 basketball credits, and Pac-12 intellectual property, that is entirely up to whatever OSU and WSU lawyers can negotiate with the other exiting Pac-12 schools. Since these are the only schools who benefit from the credits as legacy Pac-12 members, there really isn't anything in it for the MWC schools. And a merger where MWC schools go to the Pac-12 isn't happening, as nobody wants to risk the media revenue or MWC credits they receive, nor replace their commissioner with the Pac-12 commissioner (who BTW has pretty much checked out, not interested in running a G5 conference).

The American is IMO unlikely to expand. I do agree ESPN is not moving any of their SBC properties to the pricier AAC. They won't sign off on that. (Note, SBC schools are reportedly getting something in the $1.5-2M range, not $500K ThreeifbyLightning stated -- that is the old contract value, prior to their expansion.) Liberty is out for institutional reasons, MTSU not a great fit, and Army will say no for the 5th or 6th time if asked. That leaves UMass, ... yeah not exciting.

So, we are probably done, except for OSU and WSU to work out terms with the MWC and their TV partners FOX and CBS to join. Lawyers will spend the next year cutting up the Pac-12 carcass.

The next follow up will be the removal of the Pac-12 from autonomous status, their CFP share starting in 2024 onward going to the "P4" and the formula revised to 5-7 to account for their downgrading. The now 69 autonomous schools (BYU, Cincy, Houston, UCF joining in 2023) will shrink to 68 next year (SMU moving in, WSU and OSU dropping out).

They could do that but good luck with a model where the states of CA, OR, WA, NV have 6 Autonomous teams and the state of Texas alone has 7. These conferences and states are approaching Hog status.

(09-04-2023 01:52 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 06:55 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  Delaware is not joining the Sun Belt unless Delaware is planning on replacing a university president, AD, and multiple board members in the next few weeks

Good!

Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, North Dakota & ND St., South Dakota & SD St., Montana & Montana St. and Idaho and Idaho St. are in their best place where they are right now. They just don't have the size and resources being in a small state to justify FBS and the higher subsidies. Except for Wyoming, none of the states smaller than Hawaii have an FBS team. Vermont and Alaska don't have any college football teams (last I checked).

Vermont has football but the schools playing are D3 schools.