(09-03-2023 02:59 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  #24 Tulane
Wyoming
Fresno State
Texas State
SMU
San Diego State
Memphis

Just my take...

I like your take better!

Rice Owls (and UTSA for that matter) just one game back

We can be talking about this team or that team that had a good win on week 1 but, honestly, most teams have not had a worthy opponent in front of them, yet.

There is a tendency to think having a P5 win is what’s needed — in reality, that’s a little simplistic. Tulane’s win over K State only mattered a lot last year because K State ended up being a very good team.

Are Baylor, Texas Tech, and Purdue going to end up being that good? I could be wrong, but I doubt it. Quality wins regardless of conference are going to matter. Between Tulane, SMU, UTSA and Memphis, the winner of this league is going to likely have some high quality wins in the SP+ and similar metrics. That’s been the formula that matters.

(09-03-2023 09:55 AM)Ned Low Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 09:48 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  Tulane and Fresno, yes?

In order, based on quality/perception of wins:

Fresno State
Wyoming
Tulane
Northern Illinois
SMU
WKU
Liberty

Tulane can rocket up this list with a win next week. It will be a tall order but I do expect the game to be competitive.

How can you leave the Charlotte 49'ers off that list?

I think Marshall is in the driver’s seat after their big win.

(09-03-2023 11:33 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  I think Marshall is in the driver’s seat after their big win.

Lol, now that’s hilarious. Too bad their fan base is delusional enough to think you are being serious.

Cubanbull is right; trying to determine NY6 Bowl candidates after 1 week is a bit premature. Let's get through the OOC slate and start projecting in early October.

(09-04-2023 09:15 AM)boss man Wrote:  Cubanbull is right; trying to determine NY6 Bowl candidates after 1 week is a bit premature. Let's get through the OOC slate and start projecting in early October.

Agree but its great message board fodder.

(09-04-2023 08:39 AM)Thewavefan Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 11:33 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  I think Marshall is in the driver’s seat after their big win.

Lol, now that’s hilarious. Too bad their fan base is delusional enough to think you are being serious.

You're right. After our emotional high of a week 1 Albany win, I fear an emotional letdown playing ECU

Right now, Tulane is the only team that garners serious consideration from me and that is based more on last season than week 1 results. I’m looking forward to their next game and seeing if they can keep their winning streak going.

(09-04-2023 11:03 AM)Eagleholic Wrote:  Right now, Tulane is the only team that garners serious consideration from me and that is based more on last season than week 1 results. I’m looking forward to their next game and seeing if they can keep their winning streak going.

Hope you enjoy having us hang 70 on you in a few weeks. Have to make up for that controversial loss last year.

Its gonna be Texas State

They are going to roll UTSA and roll through the Sun Belt

GJ is the best coach in CFB

Tulane will probably get rolled next week

Maybe not…

SMU will have a good shot if they beat everyone
In this crap league lose to sooner and beat TCU

(09-03-2023 02:09 PM)Thewavefan Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 01:34 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 01:24 PM)OUGwave Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 09:55 AM)Ned Low Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 09:48 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  Tulane and Fresno, yes?

In order, based on quality/perception of wins:

Fresno State
Wyoming
Tulane
Northern Illinois
SMU
WKU
Liberty

Tulane can rocket up this list with a win next week. It will be a tall order but I do expect the game to be competitive.

Be very skeptical of Fresno’s win over Purdue, who sucks. And Wyoming’s 2OT win over Tech, who also looks to be overrated.

If the AAC winner finishes with 2 losses or less, NY6 probably stays in the AAC.

Not to be that guy. But beating a dead horse here. Don't sleep on Texas State.

They sure as heck caught us off guard. Don't think they'll win the Sun Belt, but having that P4 scalp is a resume builder.

Once again, it's in Tulane's hands now. But the days of any group of 5 team with 2 wins being the representative is over.

Recent history goes to the programs with P4 scalps. Had App State or Marshall not shot themselves in the foot last year, it could have been either of those last year.

I’ll sleep on Texas State all season long. It’s about strength of schedule. The Sun Belt teams are far inferior to the MW schools who are far inferior to the AAC schools hence why a 2 loss AAC school still gets in over an undefeated Sunbelt school or 1 loss MW school. That’s just how pecking orders work.

_______________________________________________________
Man...I can't even begin to tell you how off you are on just about that whole post.
1st - The MWC was deemed (by statistics, analytics, etc...), as better than the AAC the past 2 yrs. And yes....that was even with Cin 1 yr and Tulane the next yr being better than everyone. Am not a fan of all that bs but it's out there in cold hard numbers. At best...the AAC could say they are debateably better. Fine.

Now....3 teams that helped that conf get the numbers they got are gone. Replaced by 6 lower rung teams. Some....snakebelly low. How do you expect the AAC to be above or even level to the MWC after they were statistically under them before all this?

2ndly....That SBC is on a roll! They are trending wayyyy up the last 4 yrs. They even had the power to do some poaching. And frankly....if the AAC gets raided again, watch out for some more poaching by them. They are close now,,,if not even with the MWC and AAC, sans Tulane..(who I think is for real & stands alone. Sort of like the last 2 yrs in the G5).

Need a reputable source for those claims ^

Every ranking in the massey composite disagrees.

(09-04-2023 03:24 PM)seurat92 Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 02:09 PM)Thewavefan Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 01:34 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 01:24 PM)OUGwave Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 09:55 AM)Ned Low Wrote:  In order, based on quality/perception of wins:

Fresno State
Wyoming
Tulane
Northern Illinois
SMU
WKU
Liberty

Tulane can rocket up this list with a win next week. It will be a tall order but I do expect the game to be competitive.

Be very skeptical of Fresno’s win over Purdue, who sucks. And Wyoming’s 2OT win over Tech, who also looks to be overrated.

If the AAC winner finishes with 2 losses or less, NY6 probably stays in the AAC.

Not to be that guy. But beating a dead horse here. Don't sleep on Texas State.

They sure as heck caught us off guard. Don't think they'll win the Sun Belt, but having that P4 scalp is a resume builder.

Once again, it's in Tulane's hands now. But the days of any group of 5 team with 2 wins being the representative is over.

Recent history goes to the programs with P4 scalps. Had App State or Marshall not shot themselves in the foot last year, it could have been either of those last year.

I’ll sleep on Texas State all season long. It’s about strength of schedule. The Sun Belt teams are far inferior to the MW schools who are far inferior to the AAC schools hence why a 2 loss AAC school still gets in over an undefeated Sunbelt school or 1 loss MW school. That’s just how pecking orders work.

_______________________________________________________
Man...I can't even begin to tell you how off you are on just about that whole post.
1st - The MWC was deemed (by statistics, analytics, etc...), as better than the AAC the past 2 yrs. And yes....that was even with Cin 1 yr and Tulane the next yr being better than everyone. Am not a fan of all that bs but it's out there in cold hard numbers. At best...the AAC could say they are debateably better. Fine.

Now....3 teams that helped that conf get the numbers they got are gone. Replaced by 6 lower rung teams. Some....snakebelly low. How do you expect the AAC to be above or even level to the MWC after they were statistically under them before all this?

2ndly....That SBC is on a roll! They are trending wayyyy up the last 4 yrs. They even had the power to do some poaching. And frankly....if the AAC gets raided again, watch out for some more poaching by them. They are close now,,,if not even with the MWC and AAC, sans Tulane..(who I think is for real & stands alone. Sort of like the last 2 yrs in the G5).

Incorrect
According to Massey Ratings AAC was top nonPower in both 2021 and 2022
https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/index.htm

(09-04-2023 05:27 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  Need a reputable source for those claims ^

Every ranking in the massey composite disagrees.

He gave you the source!

statistics.analytics.etsy.com

(09-04-2023 03:24 PM)seurat92 Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 02:09 PM)Thewavefan Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 01:34 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 01:24 PM)OUGwave Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 09:55 AM)Ned Low Wrote:  In order, based on quality/perception of wins:

Fresno State
Wyoming
Tulane
Northern Illinois
SMU
WKU
Liberty

Tulane can rocket up this list with a win next week. It will be a tall order but I do expect the game to be competitive.

Be very skeptical of Fresno’s win over Purdue, who sucks. And Wyoming’s 2OT win over Tech, who also looks to be overrated.

If the AAC winner finishes with 2 losses or less, NY6 probably stays in the AAC.

Not to be that guy. But beating a dead horse here. Don't sleep on Texas State.

They sure as heck caught us off guard. Don't think they'll win the Sun Belt, but having that P4 scalp is a resume builder.

Once again, it's in Tulane's hands now. But the days of any group of 5 team with 2 wins being the representative is over.

Recent history goes to the programs with P4 scalps. Had App State or Marshall not shot themselves in the foot last year, it could have been either of those last year.

I’ll sleep on Texas State all season long. It’s about strength of schedule. The Sun Belt teams are far inferior to the MW schools who are far inferior to the AAC schools hence why a 2 loss AAC school still gets in over an undefeated Sunbelt school or 1 loss MW school. That’s just how pecking orders work.

_______________________________________________________
Man...I can't even begin to tell you how off you are on just about that whole post.
1st - The MWC was deemed (by statistics, analytics, etc...), as better than the AAC the past 2 yrs. And yes....that was even with Cin 1 yr and Tulane the next yr being better than everyone. Am not a fan of all that bs but it's out there in cold hard numbers. At best...the AAC could say they are debateably better. Fine.

Now....3 teams that helped that conf get the numbers they got are gone. Replaced by 6 lower rung teams. Some....snakebelly low. How do you expect the AAC to be above or even level to the MWC after they were statistically under them before all this?

2ndly....That SBC is on a roll! They are trending wayyyy up the last 4 yrs. They even had the power to do some poaching. And frankly....if the AAC gets raided again, watch out for some more poaching by them. They are close now,,,if not even with the MWC and AAC, sans Tulane..(who I think is for real & stands alone. Sort of like the last 2 yrs in the G5).

(09-04-2023 09:19 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  

(09-04-2023 09:15 AM)boss man Wrote:  Cubanbull is right; trying to determine NY6 Bowl candidates after 1 week is a bit premature. Let's get through the OOC slate and start projecting in early October.

Agree but its great message board fodder.

Totally understand....fun to discuss.

I tend to wait until October as the stronger teams are "emerging".

(09-04-2023 06:56 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(09-04-2023 03:24 PM)seurat92 Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 02:09 PM)Thewavefan Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 01:34 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 01:24 PM)OUGwave Wrote:  Be very skeptical of Fresno’s win over Purdue, who sucks. And Wyoming’s 2OT win over Tech, who also looks to be overrated.

If the AAC winner finishes with 2 losses or less, NY6 probably stays in the AAC.

Not to be that guy. But beating a dead horse here. Don't sleep on Texas State.

They sure as heck caught us off guard. Don't think they'll win the Sun Belt, but having that P4 scalp is a resume builder.

Once again, it's in Tulane's hands now. But the days of any group of 5 team with 2 wins being the representative is over.

Recent history goes to the programs with P4 scalps. Had App State or Marshall not shot themselves in the foot last year, it could have been either of those last year.

I’ll sleep on Texas State all season long. It’s about strength of schedule. The Sun Belt teams are far inferior to the MW schools who are far inferior to the AAC schools hence why a 2 loss AAC school still gets in over an undefeated Sunbelt school or 1 loss MW school. That’s just how pecking orders work.

_______________________________________________________
Man...I can't even begin to tell you how off you are on just about that whole post.
1st - The MWC was deemed (by statistics, analytics, etc...), as better than the AAC the past 2 yrs. And yes....that was even with Cin 1 yr and Tulane the next yr being better than everyone. Am not a fan of all that bs but it's out there in cold hard numbers. At best...the AAC could say they are debateably better. Fine.

Now....3 teams that helped that conf get the numbers they got are gone. Replaced by 6 lower rung teams. Some....snakebelly low. How do you expect the AAC to be above or even level to the MWC after they were statistically under them before all this?

2ndly....That SBC is on a roll! They are trending wayyyy up the last 4 yrs. They even had the power to do some poaching. And frankly....if the AAC gets raided again, watch out for some more poaching by them. They are close now,,,if not even with the MWC and AAC, sans Tulane..(who I think is for real & stands alone. Sort of like the last 2 yrs in the G5).

Incorrect
According to Massey Ratings AAC was top nonPower in both 2021 and 2022
https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/index.htm

Thank you!

I will say that the mwc did nose us out in 2021, like decimal dust in the stats. Then in 2022, they plummeted and got passed by Sun Belt, but we were almost equidistant from ACC ahead of us and Sun Belt behind us. (It has often been the case since 2015 that we're closer to the five ahead than the four behind.) But seurat seems to have a what have you done for me lately mindset.

seurat's estimation of Sun Belt is unsupportable by stats. Period. Including trendlines.

Obviously we changed our composition...and still started this season ahead of mwc and Sun Belt in Massey Composite, Sagarin, SP+, FPI...