(09-03-2023 11:05 PM)Comet Wrote:  Someone explain to me how:

1. [b]AAC or MWC teams can afford to pay exit fees for a conference with…2[/b]. No media deal, and no real data to suggest the PAC-2 plus an assortment of MWC/AAC schools would make $8m+
3. How would the AAC teams afford the added travel without a significant boost in media revenue.

easy, we're all gonna hit you guys up for a loan

(09-03-2023 11:05 PM)Comet Wrote:  Someone explain to me how:

1. AAC or MWC teams can afford to pay exit fees for a conference with…
2. No media deal, and no real data to suggest the PAC-2 plus an assortment of MWC/AAC schools would make $8m+
3. How would the AAC teams afford the added travel without a significant boost in media revenue.

1. Keep in mind the PAC2 is desperate for money and relevance now that their meal tickets disappeared.
2. Rebuild is the first option.
3. The PAC2 has roughly $100M in the bank to help with the rebuild.
4. Nominal exit fees are not the same as actual fees paid. The amount is typically lower.
5. The TV deal likely to be better with “best of the rest”( BoR) than with just the MWC or AAC. Eyeballs are more important than markets these days. Some of the BoR have BB teams with capacity to earn Tourney credits.
6. BoR likely to earn more money via better bowls and securing the CFP most years.
7. Invite in phases to minimize exit fees. The first phase could be just enough to meet NCAA requirements.
8. Some schools may be able to cover at least part of the fees.
9. Travel costs could be mitigated through eastern and western wings.

A rebuild is a complex process with one unsatisfactory part of the process torpedoing the entire effort. However, it certainly is worth the exploration effort.

(09-04-2023 04:09 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 11:05 PM)Comet Wrote:  Someone explain to me how:

1. AAC or MWC teams can afford to pay exit fees for a conference with…
2. No media deal, and no real data to suggest the PAC-2 plus an assortment of MWC/AAC schools would make $8m+
3. How would the AAC teams afford the added travel without a significant boost in media revenue.

1. Keep in mind the PAC2 is desperate for money and relevance now that their meal tickets disappeared.
2. Rebuild is the first option.
3. The PAC2 has roughly $100M in the bank to help with the rebuild.
4. Nominal exit fees are not the same as actual fees paid. The amount is typically lower.
5. The TV deal likely to be better with “best of the rest”( BoR) than with just the MWC or AAC. Eyeballs are more important than markets these days. Some of the BoR have BB teams with capacity to earn Tourney credits.
6. BoR likely to earn more money via better bowls and securing the CFP most years.
7. Invite in phases to minimize exit fees. The first phase could be just enough to meet NCAA requirements.
8. Some schools may be able to cover at least part of the fees.
9. Travel costs could be mitigated through eastern and western wings.

A rebuild is a complex process with one unsatisfactory part of the process torpedoing the entire effort. However, it certainly is worth the exploration effort.

I do think what you outlined is the most logical path towards something like this. I would just counter back with: why would WSU/OSU use up $100m for this conference when they could keep those funds and join the MWC who would likely be BoR anyway? MWC would be renegotiating a deal in 2024 to prepare for 2025 correct?

(09-04-2023 04:09 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 11:05 PM)Comet Wrote:  Someone explain to me how:

1. AAC or MWC teams can afford to pay exit fees for a conference with…
2. No media deal, and no real data to suggest the PAC-2 plus an assortment of MWC/AAC schools would make $8m+
3. How would the AAC teams afford the added travel without a significant boost in media revenue.

1. Keep in mind the PAC2 is desperate for money and relevance now that their meal tickets disappeared.
2. Rebuild is the first option.
3. The PAC2 has roughly $100M in the bank to help with the rebuild.
4. Nominal exit fees are not the same as actual fees paid. The amount is typically lower.
5. The TV deal likely to be better with “best of the rest”( BoR) than with just the MWC or AAC. Eyeballs are more important than markets these days. Some of the BoR have BB teams with capacity to earn Tourney credits.
6. BoR likely to earn more money via better bowls and securing the CFP most years.
7. Invite in phases to minimize exit fees. The first phase could be just enough to meet NCAA requirements.
8. Some schools may be able to cover at least part of the fees.
9. Travel costs could be mitigated through eastern and western wings.

A rebuild is a complex process with one unsatisfactory part of the process torpedoing the entire effort. However, it certainly is worth the exploration effort.

Where did they get the 100 Million?

(09-04-2023 06:49 AM)Comet Wrote:  

(09-04-2023 04:09 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 11:05 PM)Comet Wrote:  Someone explain to me how:

1. AAC or MWC teams can afford to pay exit fees for a conference with…
2. No media deal, and no real data to suggest the PAC-2 plus an assortment of MWC/AAC schools would make $8m+
3. How would the AAC teams afford the added travel without a significant boost in media revenue.

1. Keep in mind the PAC2 is desperate for money and relevance now that their meal tickets disappeared.
2. Rebuild is the first option.
3. The PAC2 has roughly $100M in the bank to help with the rebuild.
4. Nominal exit fees are not the same as actual fees paid. The amount is typically lower.
5. The TV deal likely to be better with “best of the rest”( BoR) than with just the MWC or AAC. Eyeballs are more important than markets these days. Some of the BoR have BB teams with capacity to earn Tourney credits.
6. BoR likely to earn more money via better bowls and securing the CFP most years.
7. Invite in phases to minimize exit fees. The first phase could be just enough to meet NCAA requirements.
8. Some schools may be able to cover at least part of the fees.
9. Travel costs could be mitigated through eastern and western wings.

A rebuild is a complex process with one unsatisfactory part of the process torpedoing the entire effort. However, it certainly is worth the exploration effort.

I do think what you outlined is the most logical path towards something like this. I would just counter back with: why would WSU/OSU use up $100m for this conference when they could keep those funds and join the MWC who would likely be BoR anyway? MWC would be renegotiating a deal in 2024 to prepare for 2025 correct?

The PAC is on an Island. MWC is on an Island. That's always been the problem with those two conferences. Exposure. Going from the PAC to the MWC is like robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Both conferences need the Central time zone. The most coveted time zone.

Manifest destiny:
OSU
WSU

Boise State
San Diego State
Colorado State
Fresno State

Memphis
Tulane
Tulsa
UTSA

Others: Navy, USF, ECU, North Texas, Rice, UNLV, Air Force, Nevada, Utah State, etc.

Washington State and Oregon State are not collecting any exit fees if they absorb into the Mountain West. That's why they want to have that as a last resort. They're going to try and see if they can collect any remaining exit fees and damages.

Conversely, Mountain West schools are not going to leave to exit into a new PAC conference without a TV deal.

That is the impasse. Which is why nothing happens and ultimately I think Washington State and Oregon State are going to have to hold their nose, and just simply join the Mountain West.

Absorbing conferences either way just becomes too legally messy, and without the structure of a conference, you can't renegotiate a TV deal.

(09-04-2023 08:28 AM)rileylives Wrote:  Washington State and Oregon State are not collecting any exit fees if they absorb into the Mountain West. That's why they want to have that as a last resort. They're going to try and see if they can collect any remaining exit fees and damages.

Conversely, Mountain West schools are not going to leave to exit into a new PAC conference without a TV deal.

That is the impasse. Which is why nothing happens and ultimately I think Washington State and Oregon State are going to have to hold their nose, and just simply join the Mountain West.

Absorbing conferences either way just becomes too legally messy, and without the structure of a conference, you can't renegotiate a TV deal.

Why not? Their tv deal blows as it is now. A new tv deal with select teams would be much better no matter how it shakes out.

The teams that are going to want to see some numbers would be the aac teams.

Keep in mind, it is not hard to get numbers before the conference forms. The BE basically did this before they left the AAC. They would have some really good idea what it is.

When it's all said and done, I think the PAC conference dies, Washington State and Oregon State simply are forced to just enter the Mountain West, there's just simply not enough time to create a merger.

The AAC fails in its attempt to land Army, and ultimately has to add UMass.

The AAC is to prideful to add Liberty, even though they absolutely should. The AAC is so backwards stuck in its ways on market ads, now they've boxed themselves into a corner.

Not many good market ads available that would be willing to go. And because they're living in 1990s era of prioritizing markets, it's ultimately put them in this position. Despite the fact Marshall and App State average more TV and streaming viewers than 3/4 of the AAC. They had a chance to go after good established programs and they simply didn't. Now if they tried to reach out to programs like that they're just going to get laughed out of the room.

Maybe FIU or MTSU. UConn certainly won't go back. Thus leving UMass.

(09-04-2023 06:49 AM)Comet Wrote:  

(09-04-2023 04:09 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 11:05 PM)Comet Wrote:  Someone explain to me how:

1. AAC or MWC teams can afford to pay exit fees for a conference with…
2. No media deal, and no real data to suggest the PAC-2 plus an assortment of MWC/AAC schools would make $8m+
3. How would the AAC teams afford the added travel without a significant boost in media revenue.

1. Keep in mind the PAC2 is desperate for money and relevance now that their meal tickets disappeared.
2. Rebuild is the first option.
3. The PAC2 has roughly $100M in the bank to help with the rebuild.
4. Nominal exit fees are not the same as actual fees paid. The amount is typically lower.
5. The TV deal likely to be better with “best of the rest”( BoR) than with just the MWC or AAC. Eyeballs are more important than markets these days. Some of the BoR have BB teams with capacity to earn Tourney credits.
6. BoR likely to earn more money via better bowls and securing the CFP most years.
7. Invite in phases to minimize exit fees. The first phase could be just enough to meet NCAA requirements.
8. Some schools may be able to cover at least part of the fees.
9. Travel costs could be mitigated through eastern and western wings.

A rebuild is a complex process with one unsatisfactory part of the process torpedoing the entire effort. However, it certainly is worth the exploration effort.

I do think what you outlined is the most logical path towards something like this. I would just counter back with: why would WSU/OSU use up $100m for this conference when they could keep those funds and join the MWC who would likely be BoR anyway? MWC would be renegotiating a deal in 2024 to prepare for 2025 correct?

Because you don’t want to just likely be the 5th conference you want to absolutely be the 5th conference. Adding Tulane, the Texas public’s and Memphis helps insure that fact.

(09-04-2023 08:26 AM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  

(09-04-2023 06:49 AM)Comet Wrote:  

(09-04-2023 04:09 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 11:05 PM)Comet Wrote:  Someone explain to me how:

1. AAC or MWC teams can afford to pay exit fees for a conference with…
2. No media deal, and no real data to suggest the PAC-2 plus an assortment of MWC/AAC schools would make $8m+
3. How would the AAC teams afford the added travel without a significant boost in media revenue.

1. Keep in mind the PAC2 is desperate for money and relevance now that their meal tickets disappeared.
2. Rebuild is the first option.
3. The PAC2 has roughly $100M in the bank to help with the rebuild.
4. Nominal exit fees are not the same as actual fees paid. The amount is typically lower.
5. The TV deal likely to be better with “best of the rest”( BoR) than with just the MWC or AAC. Eyeballs are more important than markets these days. Some of the BoR have BB teams with capacity to earn Tourney credits.
6. BoR likely to earn more money via better bowls and securing the CFP most years.
7. Invite in phases to minimize exit fees. The first phase could be just enough to meet NCAA requirements.
8. Some schools may be able to cover at least part of the fees.
9. Travel costs could be mitigated through eastern and western wings.

A rebuild is a complex process with one unsatisfactory part of the process torpedoing the entire effort. However, it certainly is worth the exploration effort.

I do think what you outlined is the most logical path towards something like this. I would just counter back with: why would WSU/OSU use up $100m for this conference when they could keep those funds and join the MWC who would likely be BoR anyway? MWC would be renegotiating a deal in 2024 to prepare for 2025 correct?

The PAC is on an Island. MWC is on an Island. That's always been the problem with those two conferences. Exposure. Going from the PAC to the MWC is like robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Both conferences need the Central time zone. The most coveted time zone.

Manifest destiny:
OSU
WSU

Boise State
San Diego State
Colorado State
Fresno State

Memphis
Tulane
Tulsa
UTSA

Others: Navy, USF, ECU, North Texas, Rice, UNLV, Air Force, Nevada, Utah State, etc.

12 teams is too small and too at risk of becoming unstable if poached and doesn’t look like the other major conferences. 16 or 18 is the requirement.

(09-03-2023 10:27 PM)rileylives Wrote:  I'd say they're all F...ed

Because no one from the MAC is gonna pay their exit fee. No one from the Sun Belt is gonna leave for an unstable condition like that.

If the original scenario happened, which I am doubtful, they're either gonna have to merge within an existing conference, or raid CUSA like always.

AAC makes more money than the other G5 conferences.

(09-04-2023 09:12 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 10:27 PM)rileylives Wrote:  I'd say they're all F...ed

Because no one from the MAC is gonna pay their exit fee. No one from the Sun Belt is gonna leave for an unstable condition like that.

If the original scenario happened, which I am doubtful, they're either gonna have to merge within an existing conference, or raid CUSA like always.

AAC makes more money than the other G5 conferences.

But you haven't peeled back the layers of that onion. They are only offering entry level schools roughly 2 million per year, only the established programs get the 7 million average per year.

Sun Belt schools get nearly the same if not more with equal exposure on ESPN.

So now, there is no incentive. They have boxed themselves into a corner.

They're going to try to give Army full share that SMU had, which is again laughable and a slap to the face to the CUSA 6.

Army is still going to look at that offer and say "nah bro we're good."

A program like UMass however, would take the 2 million per year and gladly enter.

With all of this said, what is to stop ESPN from tearing up that contract? You don't think that's out of the realm of possibility with all the layoffs that have transpired? If you don't think that's a possibility then you're not living in reality.

(09-04-2023 09:21 AM)rileylives Wrote:  

(09-04-2023 09:12 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 10:27 PM)rileylives Wrote:  I'd say they're all F...ed

Because no one from the MAC is gonna pay their exit fee. No one from the Sun Belt is gonna leave for an unstable condition like that.

If the original scenario happened, which I am doubtful, they're either gonna have to merge within an existing conference, or raid CUSA like always.

AAC makes more money than the other G5 conferences.

But you haven't peeled back the layers of that onion. They are only offering entry level schools roughly 2 million per year, only the established programs get the 7 million average per year.

Incorrect. It would be $3.5million.

Also, thats only the media deal. Most AAC programs make about $2million above and beyond the media payout. So entry schools are looking at $5million per year. Legacy teams make about $9million per team.

(09-04-2023 09:41 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(09-04-2023 09:21 AM)rileylives Wrote:  

(09-04-2023 09:12 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 10:27 PM)rileylives Wrote:  I'd say they're all F...ed

Because no one from the MAC is gonna pay their exit fee. No one from the Sun Belt is gonna leave for an unstable condition like that.

If the original scenario happened, which I am doubtful, they're either gonna have to merge within an existing conference, or raid CUSA like always.

AAC makes more money than the other G5 conferences.

But you haven't peeled back the layers of that onion. They are only offering entry level schools roughly 2 million per year, only the established programs get the 7 million average per year.

Incorrect. It would be $3.5million.

Also, thats only the media deal. Most AAC programs make about $2million above and beyond the media payout. So entry schools are looking at $5million per year. Legacy teams make about $9million per team.

All schools make up and above the media payout. Again, when the rubber meets the road if you laid out all of the budgets it would be a wash. Unless you are offering incoming schools 9 million per team that's a completely different animal, and even at that point and I'm being honest, I don't think you're going to get top programs from the Mountain West or Sun Belt belt to bite at that either. Probably not enough to lure Washington State or Oregon State either...

Which was my original point, you've boxed yourself into a corner. Had Aresco went after the top G5 programs in your last round round of realignment, maybe that would be a different scenario altogether. But that's not what happened. Your conference has proven to not go after the best brands, but market ads that can't even average over 20,000 in attendance.

You put yourself in a very tough spot. You have a commissioner that's going off of 1990s era mindset, when you need a modern thinking commissioner that looks at the whole picture of streaming. You could have pulled in App State or Marshall if you offered full rate, but that's not what you're going to do.

(09-04-2023 04:09 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  ... 5. The TV deal likely to be better with “best of the rest”( BoR) than with just the MWC or AAC. Eyeballs are more important than markets these days. Some of the BoR have BB teams with capacity to earn Tourney credits. ...

It may be "better", but not enough better to offset the exit fee payments. ESPN is losing some late night Saturday inventory outright, and many more West Coast / MTZ conference home games will be against ETZ/CTZ schools, where a number of those games will be more lucrative in a 3:30pm or 7pm time slot.

Merging the membership of the PAC2+MWC saves all of those exit fees that would be paid by somebody to form a "best of the rest" conference, and still reaps the large majority of the ongoing media revenue. That means that the PAC2 schools can hold onto more of the legacy PAC revenues in 2024/25 and 2025/26, while whatever they do share will be a net gain to the incoming schools rather than offsetting exit fees.

I find the premise to be highly unlikely. AAC schools leaving are really taking a huge leap of faith with no guarantees waiting for them. That said if that did happen, I cant see the breakaway u mention.

PAC really would need 5 or 6 AAC schools year one. My guess is they would want all of the AAC originals available. Temple, ECU, USF, Tulsa, and Tulane, and NAVY FB only. Assuming all would go, and I think that would be possible. You then have 8 schools for 2024. Then in 2025 you add SD State, AF, Co ST. Fresno to get to 12. You may well want to go 2 to 4 more and match size of B12, plus finishing off the MWC. Boise, UNLV, maybe UAB or a TX school from AAC.

At the end of the day that group likely could get close to 10 mil. Be the clear run away #5.

Big question would be how much nerve do Prez in MWC/AAC have? My guess is not enough.

Maybe all of the G5 conferences should just merge into one. Then the conference championship would be the de facto G5 playoff / natl. champ.

(09-04-2023 10:43 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  Maybe all of the G5 conferences should just merge into one. Then the conference championship would be the de facto G5 playoff / natl. champ.

No.

(09-04-2023 10:31 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I find the premise to be highly unlikely. AAC schools leaving are really taking a huge leap of faith with no guarantees waiting for them. That said if that did happen, I cant see the breakaway u mention.

PAC really would need 5 or 6 AAC schools year one. My guess is they would want all of the AAC originals available. Temple, ECU, USF, Tulsa, and Tulane, and NAVY FB only. Assuming all would go, and I think that would be possible. You then have 8 schools for 2024. Then in 2025 you add SD State, AF, Co ST. Fresno to get to 12. You may well want to go 2 to 4 more and match size of B12, plus finishing off the MWC. Boise, UNLV, maybe UAB or a TX school from AAC.

At the end of the day that group likely could get close to 10 mil. Be the clear run away #5.

Big question would be how much nerve do Prez in MWC/AAC have? My guess is not enough.

I would lean towards presidents at SDSU, Fresno St, Boise St and maybe UNLV all having enough nerve to at least have clandestine meetings with each other and WSOS. No idea if any AAC schools have that much interest.