(09-20-2023 04:27 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(09-20-2023 04:17 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(09-20-2023 09:46 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Top Ten G5 NY6 Contenders as of 9/20/23:

Tulane…………..33
Fresno St……..38
AF…….……….….44
Memphis……….50
SMU……….…….51
Marshall….…..58
South Al……...59
Boise…………….61
Liberty…….…..62
App St………….65

Number of Legacy AAC schools in top ten: 3
Number of SBC schools in top ten: 3
Number of MWC schools in top ten: 3
Number of CUSA schools in top ten: 1
Number of former CUSA6 in top ten: 0

JMU is not listed because they are not eligible.

Bolded to include current teams with P5 wins. This weekend is MASSIVE for Memphis, SMU and Marshall, as we all have P5 matchups.

Tulane is done with its P5 matchup and lost. Marshall have two, Memphis and SMU have some this weekend. Because of this, I don't view Tulane as a legit NY6 candidate as of this moment. They will have no P5 wins when it's all said and done.

If Tulane goes 12-1 they will also be riding on last years success. If you think they won’t be a NY6 candidate because they lost to OleMiss. You are wrong

Of course they'll be a CANDIDATE.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

The AAC went 0-7 vs P5 teams yesterday, which counting Notre Dame as a P brings our record against the P to a whopping 1-20 this season, the only win being Rice over Houston, and Houston is a feaux-P school IMO, they were our conference mates just three months ago.

1-20.

Our OOC wins yesterday were against Gardner-Webb (FCS), Nicholls State (FCS) and .... drum roll please .... Northern Illinois (MAC). That was our signature win in week four.

We're just not any good this year. And before the bowls we don't really have any more chances. Memphis plays a denuded Boise team next week, that's about it.

Right now you have to say the MWC has the best shot, but who knows what happens rest of season.

The MWC has
Fresno 4-0
Air Force 4-0
Wyoming 3-1
UNLV 3-1

AAC
Tulane 3-1
Memphis 3-1

SBC
James Madison 4-0 not eligible
Marshall 3-0
Georgia St 4-0
Georgia So 3-1
Louisiana 3-1
Texas St 3-1
ULM 2-1

CUSA
Liberty 4-0
Max State 3-1

MAC
Ohio 4-1
Toledo 3-1
Miami Oh 3-1

There are schools with 2 losses that could get back in race if they win out and many of these undefeated and 1 loss teams start to lose.

The big key is getting your top ranked school to win out and win conference championship

Lots of football to be played

(09-24-2023 08:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The AAC went 0-7 vs P5 teams yesterday, which counting Notre Dame as a P brings our record against the P to a whopping 1-20 this season, the only win being Rice over Houston, and Houston is a feaux-P school IMO, they were our conference mates just three months ago.

1-20.

Our OOC wins yesterday were against Gardner-Webb (FCS), Nicholls State (FCS) and .... drum roll please .... Northern Illinois (MAC). That was our signature win in week four.

We're just not any good this year. And before the bowls we don't really have any more chances. Memphis plays a denuded Boise team next week, that's about it.

Boise at Memphis
Air Force (currently 4-0) at Navy

So currently Massey Top 10 for the NY6 bowl
1. Fresno 4-0 #29 MWC
2. Air Force 4-0 #41 MWC
3. Tulane 3-1 #47 AAC
4. Marshall 3-0 #51 SBC
5. Boise 2-2 #59 MWC
6. Wyoming 3-1 #60 MWC
7. SMU 2-2 #61 AAC
8. Georgia State 4-0 #62 SBC
9. Liberty 4-0 #64 CUSA
10. Memphis 3-1 #65 AAC

James Madison 4-0 # 42 not eligible

As of 9/25/23 with 48 sources included:

AAC by school
1. Tulane............41
2. Memphis........49
3. SMU..............58
4. UTSA.............88
5. Tulsa.............91
6. Rice..............92
7. USF...............93
8. ECU..............94
9. Navy.............98
10. FAU...........107
11. Temple......108
12. UAB..........109
13. No. TX......114
14. Charlotte...118

Average Legacy: 79.0
Average Former CUSA6: 104.7

There are 133 FBS schools shown in the Massey Composite
# of Legacy AAC schools in bottom 20% - 1 of 8
# of Former CUSAS6 in bottom 20% - 4 of 6

Conference Non-Contract Bowl Rating:
1. MWC
2. SBC
3. AAC
4. CUSA
5. MAC

Top Ten G5 NY6 Contenders as of 9/25/23 (48 reporting)

Fresno St……..36
AF…….……….….38
Tulane…………..41
Marshall….…..48
Memphis……….49
Liberty…….…..50
GA St…………..55
SMU……….…….58
South Al……...59
Boise…………….61

I will discontinue updating this thread because the AAC’s situation is set. The AAC will lose its top G-5 perch and likely the NY6 slot. There is no point in documenting the inevitable.

(09-26-2023 03:36 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  I will discontinue updating this thread because the AAC’s situation is set. The AAC will lose its top G-5 perch and likely the NY6 slot. There is no point in documenting the inevitable.

You are giving up to easy. Remember is the TOP Ranked CHAMPION so a lot depends on how the conference schedules break out.

Both the SBC and MAC have divisions. In the SBC’s case all the higher rated teams so far are in the EAST.

Too much can still happen regarding the NY6 bid.

(09-26-2023 03:36 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  I will discontinue updating this thread because the AAC’s situation is set. The AAC will lose its top G-5 perch and likely the NY6 slot. There is no point in documenting the inevitable.

I have experienced this before....what we need...one word: FLAGSHIP!

It’s way to early, we still have no idea, who will be the conference champions in each.

For example as of today after week 4
AAC: USF 2-2 vs Memphis 3-1
MWC:Boise 2-2 vs Air Force 4-0
SBC: Arkansas St 2-2 vs Georgia St 4-0
MAC: Toledo 3-1 vs Ohio 4-1
CUSA:Jack State 3-1 vs Liberty4-0

Notice Fresno and Tulane the two highest rated are not even in above picture because they haven’t played any conference games.

The only thing you need to look at is # of ap votes (and ranking) and future schedule. Tulane has 1 matchup that can challenge them (Memphis) and then are 2-3 touchdown favorites for the rest of the season. They have several ap votes and will jump back in when they beat Memphis.

Fresno state is currently ahead of them but has 4 tough games in a row after this week. They will not run the table.

Tulane is in good shape this year (as long as they beat Memphis). After this year/if Tulane takes a step back we will behind the sunbelt and potentially the MW.

Just a reminder that the Committee does not give a **** about the matrix of computers, the press, or the coaches poll. They will make the call based on what they like in a little backroom and then justify it somehow.

Finally please remember a two loss Temple and Navy were in consideration in the final weeks over an undefeated team.

We have no idea what the first CFP poll will look like and until then we're all just making our best guess.

(09-27-2023 08:24 AM)Greenwavedrownsacat Wrote:  The only thing you need to look at is # of ap votes (and ranking) and future schedule. Tulane has 1 matchup that can challenge them (Memphis) and then are 2-3 touchdown favorites for the rest of the season. They have several ap votes and will jump back in when they beat Memphis.

Fresno state is currently ahead of them but has 4 tough games in a row after this week. They will not run the table.

Tulane is in good shape this year (as long as they beat Memphis). After this year/if Tulane takes a step back we will behind the sunbelt and potentially the MW.

Not necessarily because it looks like others like USF are moving upwards. I think the AAC has the exposure and locations that will always have teams rising up.
If you look at the early years of the AAC, the MWC and MAC took that NY6 spots before AAC took over and held it for past 6 years.
I also remember those early years on this board where the consensus was that the AAC would be successful if it captured that NY6 spot in three out of five years.

Comparing the AAC from August 1 to October 1 using Massey Composite Ranking
Tulane started 26 now 41
UTSA 46-95
Memphis 63-44
SMU 60-55
ECU 70-100
UAB 81-111
Navy 85-104
FAU 89-107
North Texas 90-113
Tulsa 99-80
Temple 112-115
Rice 114-81
USF 116-74
Charlotte 128-119

The MWC right now looks in good shape to get this year’s NY6 bid. But AAC still in the hunt
Massey Composite Rankings Top 10 as of October 1
1. Air Force 5-0 (32) MWC
2. Fresno 5-0 (34) MWC
3. Tulane 4-1 (41) AAC
4. Memphis 4-1 (44) AAC
5. Liberty 4-0 (46) CUSA
6. Marshall 4-0 (47) SBC
7. Wyoming 4-1 (50) MWC
8. Troy 3-2 (51) SBC
9. SMU 3-2 (55) AAC
10. Ohio 4-1 (56) MAC

Oh jeez Liberty could be the bid with their schedule.

Air Force and Fresno St have nearly the worst strength of schedule in the country. IDK if an undefeated team can be jumped, but a 1 loss team is going to take a backseat against Memphis or Tulame.