Here is a list of teams that are eligible for a bowl if 82 do not qualify.

James Madison
Jacksonville State

I hope everybody is happy now. NMSU could join the alternate list with a win since they would have six wins but a 6-7 finish puts them behind these two. Sam Houston has been eliminated from contention for an alternate spot.

I've got 78.4 teams as the average number of eligible teams to finish with 6 or fewer losses. Don't yet have a percentage, but it looks like >50% chance JMU gets a bowl this year. JSU looking good too.

(10-24-2023 05:49 AM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  Here is a list of teams that are eligible for a bowl if 82 do not qualify.

James Madison
Jacksonville State

I hope everybody is happy now. NMSU could join the alternate list with a win since they would have six wins but a 6-7 finish puts them behind these two. Sam Houston has been eliminated from contention for an alternate spot.

They did not give a spot to JMU last year for a bowl. I doubt they would do the same with Jacksonville State this year.

(10-24-2023 10:35 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 05:49 AM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  Here is a list of teams that are eligible for a bowl if 82 do not qualify.

James Madison
Jacksonville State

I hope everybody is happy now. NMSU could join the alternate list with a win since they would have six wins but a 6-7 finish puts them behind these two. Sam Houston has been eliminated from contention for an alternate spot.

They did not give a spot to JMU last year for a bowl. I doubt they would do the same with Jacksonville State this year.

Last year JMU and JSU were in their first year of their probationary period. This year they are both in their second and are eligible if there are not enough 6-win teams.

(10-24-2023 10:53 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 10:35 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 05:49 AM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  Here is a list of teams that are eligible for a bowl if 82 do not qualify.

James Madison
Jacksonville State

I hope everybody is happy now. NMSU could join the alternate list with a win since they would have six wins but a 6-7 finish puts them behind these two. Sam Houston has been eliminated from contention for an alternate spot.

They did not give a spot to JMU last year for a bowl. I doubt they would do the same with Jacksonville State this year.

Last year JMU and JSU were in their first year of their probationary period. This year they are both in their second and are eligible if there are not enough 6-win teams.

Or, IOW, don't bank on claims by THE David State regarding how NCAA bylaws work ... this is a black letter rule, explicitly setting out the spot in line of schools in the second year of FCS to FBS transition -- and not (as JMU was last year) to schools in the first year of the FCS to FBS transition.

Are we on track for JMU to qualify?

If the past few years trends hold, they should get the bowl bid.

To me the bigger issue is getting them eligible for the Sun Belt championship game and thus the G5 auto bid.

NMSU won tonight, since they play 13 games they're not officially bowl eligible yet, but a 6-7 NMSU gets in before JMU/JSU or any 5-7 teams

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/statu...E1x1A&s=19

(10-24-2023 10:54 PM)TDenverFan Wrote:  NMSU won tonight, since they play 13 games they're not officially bowl eligible yet, but a 6-7 NMSU gets in before JMU/JSU or any 5-7 teams

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/statu...E1x1A&s=19

Transitioning teams are ahead of 6-7 teams (unless the 7th loss was in a CCG).

(10-26-2023 12:01 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 10:54 PM)TDenverFan Wrote:  NMSU won tonight, since they play 13 games they're not officially bowl eligible yet, but a 6-7 NMSU gets in before JMU/JSU or any 5-7 teams

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/statu...E1x1A&s=19

Transitioning teams are ahead of 6-7 teams (unless the 7th loss was in a CCG).

Multiply my memory times Wikipedia and you get 6-7 teams ahead of 2nd year transitioning teams. Either way, NMSU is likely to get a 7th win somewhere.

Georgia Southern joins list of teams that are Bowl Eligible.

(10-26-2023 12:01 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 10:54 PM)TDenverFan Wrote:  NMSU won tonight, since they play 13 games they're not officially bowl eligible yet, but a 6-7 NMSU gets in before JMU/JSU or any 5-7 teams

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/statu...E1x1A&s=19

Transitioning teams are ahead of 6-7 teams (unless the 7th loss was in a CCG).

https://www.ncaapublications.com/product...s/D124.pdf

This is the 2023/24 NCAA manual, on page 334, it has the order of selection if there are not enough bowl eligible teams:

1 - A 6-6 team that beat an FCS team that did not offer the required number of scholarships

2 - A 6-7 team

3 - A 6 win team in the 2nd year of their transition

4 - APR scores of 5-7 teams

(10-27-2023 10:11 AM)ValleyBoy Wrote:  Georgia Southern joins list of teams that are Bowl Eligible.

And UTEP staves off elimination for one more week. Next opponent WKU.

In the early/afternoon slate, the following teams are eligible:

Miami
Memphis
SMU
Kansas State
Kansas

And the following teams can no longer get to 6 wins:

Southern Miss
ECU
UConn
UMass

Memphis scored late that left 10 seconds on the clock.

S, Miss. blew their lead.

By my reckoning, after Week 9 there are now 40 teams eligible and 13 ineligible. At the same point in the season in 2022 there were 36/10 and in 2021 there were 36/12.

Another 19 could become eligible this week, while 18 face elimination. After Week 10 in 2022 eligible/ineligible was 52/15 and in 2021 it was 49/19.

80 schools qualified without a waiver in 2022, while 83 qualified 12 2021.

Potential eligible this week:

Boston College @ Syracuse (4-4)
Duke vs Wake Forest (4-4)
NC State vs Miami (6-2)
Arizona vs UCLA (6-2)
Iowa State vs Kansas (6-2)
Maryland vs Penn State (7-1)
Minnesota vs Illinois (3-5)
Nebraska @ Michigan St (2-6)
Wisconsin @ Indiana (2-6)
Florida vs Arkansas (2-6)
Kentucky vs Mississippi St (4-4)
Texas A&M vs Ole Miss (7-1)
UTSA @ North Texas (3-5)
Wyoming vs Colorado St (3-5)
New Mexico St vs Middle Tennessee (2-6)
Louisiana @ Arkansas St (4-4)
Texas State vs Georgia Southern (6-2)
Coastal Carolina vs Old Dominion (4-4)
BYU (5-3) or @ West Virginia (5-3)

I've got 77.3 bowl eligible teams on average by the end of CCGs. It's a new calculation so there could be a bug somewhere, but it looks like JMU and JSU are pretty safe bets to go bowling.

I’m guessing the 13 ineligible include the three transitional teams? I have the following on my ineligible (seven losses) list:

Arizona State
Massachusetts
Akron
Kent State
Army
UCONN
East Carolina
Southern Miss
Vanderbilt

Hawaii has seven but they could finish 6-7 and get an alternate bid.

(10-29-2023 01:53 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  I’m guessing the 13 ineligible include the three transitional teams? I have the following on my ineligible (seven losses) list:

Arizona State
Massachusetts
Akron
Kent State
Army
UCONN
East Carolina
Southern Miss
Vanderbilt

Hawaii has seven but they could finish 6-7 and get an alternate bid.

Yes, I included the 3 transitioning teams. I also counted Hawaii who I think would need a waiver but have 7 losses already. They have Nevada who is facing elimination this week then Air Force, @ Wyoming and Colorado State. If I were betting that Hawaii won't go bowling this year I'd feel pretty good about my chances.

(10-29-2023 02:09 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-29-2023 01:53 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  I’m guessing the 13 ineligible include the three transitional teams? I have the following on my ineligible (seven losses) list:

Arizona State
Massachusetts
Akron
Kent State
Army
UCONN
East Carolina
Southern Miss
Vanderbilt

Hawaii has seven but they could finish 6-7 and get an alternate bid.

Yes, I included the 3 transitioning teams. I also counted Hawaii who I think would need a waiver but have 7 losses already. They have Nevada who is facing elimination this week then Air Force, @ Wyoming and Colorado State. If I were betting that Hawaii won't go bowling this year I'd feel pretty good about my chances.

I doubt they win out but they could go 6-7 so I didn’t want to cross them off the list entirely. But with undefeated Air Force in 13 days they will probably be crossed off fairly soon.

(10-29-2023 01:44 PM)Crayton Wrote:  I've got 77.3 bowl eligible teams on average by the end of CCGs. It's a new calculation so there could be a bug somewhere, but it looks like JMU and JSU are pretty safe bets to go bowling.

ESPN gives a mean expectation of 6 wins of 77.71 (not counting JMU or Jax State). They don't distinguish Army or Hawaii or Arizona State, but they have a pretty negligible chance of getting 6 wins anyhow.

It would be interesting to see a distribution from your trials, or the standard deviation.

The minimum possible is 48 and the maximum 116.