AAC's record against other G-5's (2019 through 2023 to date)

Charlotte (2-6)
ECU (5-4)
FAU (4-5)
Memphis (10-1)
Navy (5-7) (Navy has at least 2 more G-5 games this season)
North Texas (1-12)
Rice (2-5)
SMU (8-2)
Temple (3-1)
Tulane (9-3)
Tulsa (6-1)
UAB (8-6)
USF (1-3). (USF has at least 1 more G-5 game this season)
UTSA (5-7)

Legacy winning percentage: 68.1%
Former CUSA6 winning percentage: 35.0%

(10-09-2023 01:32 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  AAC's record against other G-5's (2019 through 2023 to date)

Charlotte (2-6)
ECU (5-4)
FAU (4-5)
Memphis (10-1)
Navy (5-7) (Navy has at least 2 more G-5 games this season)
North Texas (1-12)
Rice (2-5)
SMU (8-2)
Temple (3-1)
Tulane (9-3)
Tulsa (6-1)
UAB (8-6)
USF (1-3). (USF has at least 1 more G-5 game this season)
UTSA (5-7)

Legacy winning percentage: 68.1%
Former CUSA6 winning percentage: 35.0%

What was Memphis's percentage prior to joining the conference? Have to compare apples to apples.

(10-09-2023 01:36 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 01:32 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  AAC's record against other G-5's (2019 through 2023 to date)

Charlotte (2-6)
ECU (5-4)
FAU (4-5)
Memphis (10-1)
Navy (5-7) (Navy has at least 2 more G-5 games this season)
North Texas (1-12)
Rice (2-5)
SMU (8-2)
Temple (3-1)
Tulane (9-3)
Tulsa (6-1)
UAB (8-6)
USF (1-3). (USF has at least 1 more G-5 game this season)
UTSA (5-7)

Legacy winning percentage: 68.1%
Former CUSA6 winning percentage: 35.0%

What was Memphis's percentage prior to joining the conference? Have to compare apples to apples.

I do not know. Feel free to calculate.

My presentation is based on the past five seasons. The further one gets from the present, the less relevant the data. OTOH, using just one or two years does not establish a trend. Five years seems about right, but opinions vary. Also, data collected for a group (eg., legacy) to spot a trend for a group is more telling than data collected for one school to detect a group trend.

Please note: it is possible I counted Jacksonville St as a victory for someone when they were not yet a G-5. It was not Memphis, but I cannot remember the school.

(10-09-2023 01:46 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 01:36 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 01:32 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  AAC's record against other G-5's (2019 through 2023 to date)

Charlotte (2-6)
ECU (5-4)
FAU (4-5)
Memphis (10-1)
Navy (5-7) (Navy has at least 2 more G-5 games this season)
North Texas (1-12)
Rice (2-5)
SMU (8-2)
Temple (3-1)
Tulane (9-3)
Tulsa (6-1)
UAB (8-6)
USF (1-3). (USF has at least 1 more G-5 game this season)
UTSA (5-7)

Legacy winning percentage: 68.1%
Former CUSA6 winning percentage: 35.0%

What was Memphis's percentage prior to joining the conference? Have to compare apples to apples.

I do not know. Feel free to calculate.

My presentation is based on the past five seasons. The further one gets from the present, the less relevant the data. OTOH, using just one or two years does not establish a trend. Five years seems about right, but opinions vary. Also, data collected for a group (eg., legacy) to spot a trend for a group is more telling than data collected for one school to detect a group trend.

Please note: it is possible I counted Jacksonville St as a victory for someone when they were not yet a G-5. It was not Memphis, but I cannot remember the school.

Hard to make accurate comparisons when the new additions were in a lesser conference with lesser revenue, exposure, prestige, etc. Most schools tank when they make the initial move to a higher tier conference. Memphis certainly did, and the newly minted schools in the B12 attest to this reality as well.

(10-09-2023 01:52 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 01:46 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 01:36 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 01:32 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  AAC's record against other G-5's (2019 through 2023 to date)

Charlotte (2-6)
ECU (5-4)
FAU (4-5)
Memphis (10-1)
Navy (5-7) (Navy has at least 2 more G-5 games this season)
North Texas (1-12)
Rice (2-5)
SMU (8-2)
Temple (3-1)
Tulane (9-3)
Tulsa (6-1)
UAB (8-6)
USF (1-3). (USF has at least 1 more G-5 game this season)
UTSA (5-7)

Legacy winning percentage: 68.1%
Former CUSA6 winning percentage: 35.0%

What was Memphis's percentage prior to joining the conference? Have to compare apples to apples.

I do not know. Feel free to calculate.

My presentation is based on the past five seasons. The further one gets from the present, the less relevant the data. OTOH, using just one or two years does not establish a trend. Five years seems about right, but opinions vary. Also, data collected for a group (eg., legacy) to spot a trend for a group is more telling than data collected for one school to detect a group trend.

Please note: it is possible I counted Jacksonville St as a victory for someone when they were not yet a G-5. It was not Memphis, but I cannot remember the school.

Hard to make accurate comparisons when the new additions were in a lesser conference with lesser revenue, exposure, prestige, etc. Most schools tank when they make the initial move to a higher tier conference. Memphis certainly did, and the newly minted schools in the B12 attest to this reality as well.

Four of the five seasons of data for the former CUSA6 schools exclude the “initial move” season. .

(10-09-2023 02:10 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Four of the five seasons of data for the former CUSA6 schools exclude the “initial move” season. .

I know. I wasn't referring to you including the initial season in the stats. Just stating that their current results are no surprise and actually to be expected. Memphis absolutely sucked from 2006 into their first year in the conference (2013.) History oftentimes does not accurately predict future performance when major variables change. Tulane is another great example of historically poor performance not being indicative of future performance.

(10-09-2023 02:14 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 02:10 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Four of the five seasons of data for the former CUSA6 schools exclude the “initial move” season. .

I know. I wasn't referring to you including the initial season in the stats. Just stating that their current results are no surprise and actually to be expected. Memphis absolutely sucked from 2006 into their first year in the conference (2013.) History oftentimes does not accurately predict future performance when major variables change. Tulane is another great example of historically poor performance not being indicative of future performance.

Every individual school has its ups and downs. The AAC was routinely the top G-5 because as a group there were more ups and downs. My percentage calculation (restated below) pertains to groups.

Legacy winning percentage: 68.1%
Former CUSA6 winning percentage: 35.0%

(10-09-2023 02:24 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 02:14 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 02:10 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Four of the five seasons of data for the former CUSA6 schools exclude the “initial move” season. .

I know. I wasn't referring to you including the initial season in the stats. Just stating that their current results are no surprise and actually to be expected. Memphis absolutely sucked from 2006 into their first year in the conference (2013.) History oftentimes does not accurately predict future performance when major variables change. Tulane is another great example of historically poor performance not being indicative of future performance.

Every individual school has its ups and downs. The AAC was routinely the top G-5 because as a group there were more ups and downs. My percentage calculation (restated below) pertains to groups.

Legacy winning percentage: 68.1%
Former CUSA6 winning percentage: 35.0%

And I'm saying it's not a like for like comparison considering the CUSA6 has not enjoyed the exposure, revenue, and other positive factors that the legacy schools have enjoyed for the past decade.

Edit: FYI, I'm addressing my perception of your intentions of the thread with my responses.

(10-09-2023 01:52 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 01:46 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 01:36 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 01:32 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  AAC's record against other G-5's (2019 through 2023 to date)

Charlotte (2-6)
ECU (5-4)
FAU (4-5)
Memphis (10-1)
Navy (5-7) (Navy has at least 2 more G-5 games this season)
North Texas (1-12)
Rice (2-5)
SMU (8-2)
Temple (3-1)
Tulane (9-3)
Tulsa (6-1)
UAB (8-6)
USF (1-3). (USF has at least 1 more G-5 game this season)
UTSA (5-7)

Legacy winning percentage: 68.1%
Former CUSA6 winning percentage: 35.0%

What was Memphis's percentage prior to joining the conference? Have to compare apples to apples.

I do not know. Feel free to calculate.

My presentation is based on the past five seasons. The further one gets from the present, the less relevant the data. OTOH, using just one or two years does not establish a trend. Five years seems about right, but opinions vary. Also, data collected for a group (eg., legacy) to spot a trend for a group is more telling than data collected for one school to detect a group trend.

Please note: it is possible I counted Jacksonville St as a victory for someone when they were not yet a G-5. It was not Memphis, but I cannot remember the school.

Hard to make accurate comparisons when the new additions were in a lesser conference with lesser revenue, exposure, prestige, etc. Most schools tank when they make the initial move to a higher tier conference. Memphis certainly did, and the newly minted schools in the B12 attest to this reality as well.

UCF, Houston, and Cincy are collectively 60% against the G5 this season compared to 27.3% for the former CSA 6.

(10-09-2023 02:48 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 01:52 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 01:46 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 01:36 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 01:32 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  AAC's record against other G-5's (2019 through 2023 to date)

Charlotte (2-6)
ECU (5-4)
FAU (4-5)
Memphis (10-1)
Navy (5-7) (Navy has at least 2 more G-5 games this season)
North Texas (1-12)
Rice (2-5)
SMU (8-2)
Temple (3-1)
Tulane (9-3)
Tulsa (6-1)
UAB (8-6)
USF (1-3). (USF has at least 1 more G-5 game this season)
UTSA (5-7)

Legacy winning percentage: 68.1%
Former CUSA6 winning percentage: 35.0%

What was Memphis's percentage prior to joining the conference? Have to compare apples to apples.

I do not know. Feel free to calculate.

My presentation is based on the past five seasons. The further one gets from the present, the less relevant the data. OTOH, using just one or two years does not establish a trend. Five years seems about right, but opinions vary. Also, data collected for a group (eg., legacy) to spot a trend for a group is more telling than data collected for one school to detect a group trend.

Please note: it is possible I counted Jacksonville St as a victory for someone when they were not yet a G-5. It was not Memphis, but I cannot remember the school.

Hard to make accurate comparisons when the new additions were in a lesser conference with lesser revenue, exposure, prestige, etc. Most schools tank when they make the initial move to a higher tier conference. Memphis certainly did, and the newly minted schools in the B12 attest to this reality as well.

UCF, Houston, and Cincy are collectively (60%) against the G5 this season compared to 27.3% for the former CSA 6.

They're now P5 and have yet to win a single game in conference. They also enjoyed significantly better revenue, exposure, etc. prior to being called up. Dovetails quite well into the point I'm making.

Man, these threads y’all come up with …. ..

…. just awesome. Hey Pal, Can you pass the PoPCorn?

(10-09-2023 01:32 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  AAC's record against other G-5's (2019 through 2023 to date)

Charlotte (2-6)
ECU (5-4)
FAU (4-5)
Memphis (10-1)
Navy (5-7) (Navy has at least 2 more G-5 games this season)
North Texas (1-12)
Rice (2-5)
SMU (8-2)
Temple (3-1)
Tulane (9-3)
Tulsa (6-1)
UAB (8-6)
USF (1-3). (USF has at least 1 more G-5 game this season)
UTSA (5-7)

Legacy winning percentage: 68.1%
Former CUSA6 winning percentage: 35.0%

Man do you need to get a life.

(10-09-2023 06:21 PM)Dusky Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 01:32 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  AAC's record against other G-5's (2019 through 2023 to date)

Charlotte (2-6)
ECU (5-4)
FAU (4-5)
Memphis (10-1)
Navy (5-7) (Navy has at least 2 more G-5 games this season)
North Texas (1-12)
Rice (2-5)
SMU (8-2)
Temple (3-1)
Tulane (9-3)
Tulsa (6-1)
UAB (8-6)
USF (1-3). (USF has at least 1 more G-5 game this season)
UTSA (5-7)

Legacy winning percentage: 68.1%
Former CUSA6 winning percentage: 35.0%

Man do you need to get a life.

Writes the person taking precious time and effort to reply on a message board.....

SMH.

(10-09-2023 01:36 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(10-09-2023 01:32 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  AAC's record against other G-5's (2019 through 2023 to date)

Charlotte (2-6)
ECU (5-4)
FAU (4-5)
Memphis (10-1)
Navy (5-7) (Navy has at least 2 more G-5 games this season)
North Texas (1-12)
Rice (2-5)
SMU (8-2)
Temple (3-1)
Tulane (9-3)
Tulsa (6-1)
UAB (8-6)
USF (1-3). (USF has at least 1 more G-5 game this season)
UTSA (5-7)

Legacy winning percentage: 68.1%
Former CUSA6 winning percentage: 35.0%

What was Memphis's percentage prior to joining the conference? Have to compare apples to apples.

Not 91%, but we have a depressing theme to uphold over here.

Updated with yesterday's results. I believe only Navy has any G-5 games remaining for this regular season (against Army).

Charlotte (2-6)
ECU (5-4)
FAU (4-5)
Memphis (10-1)
Navy (5-8)
Overlooked North Texas (1-12)
Rice (2-5)
SMU (8-2)
Temple (3-1)
Tulane (9-3)
Tulsa (6-1)
UAB (8-6)
USF (2-3).
UTSA (5-7)

Legacy winning percentage: 67.6%
Former CUSA6 winning percentage: 35.0%

From this season only to date:
Charlotte (0-1)
ECU (0-2)
FAU (0-1)
Memphis (2-0)
Navy (0-1)
Overlooked North Texas (1-1)
Rice (1-1)
SMU (1-0)
Temple (1-0)
Tulane (2-0)
Tulsa (1-0)
UAB (0-2)
USF (1-1).
UTSA (1-2)

Legacy winning percentage: 66.7%
Former CUSA6 winning percentage: 27.3%

The fall of the AAC has been shocking.

Here are our records vs other G5 and G5 Indies (everyone but Notre Dame) the last four regular seasons, excluding 2020:

2019 ............. 17-1
2021 ............. 11-6
2022 ............. 11-4

2023 .............. 9-11

That's a staggering decline.

(10-22-2023 10:35 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The fall of the AAC has been shocking.

Here are our records vs other G5 and G5 Indies (everyone but Notre Dame) the last four regular seasons, excluding 2020:

2019 ............. 17-1
2021 ............. 11-6
2022 ............. 11-4

2023 .............. 9-11

That's a staggering decline.

The decline is a primary reason for the AAC's present 3rd place among the G-5's. One of the detrimental effects is making it more difficult for an AAC school to obtain an NY6 slot.

Ignoring the facts and effects will not cause them to disappear. The problem must be addressed for the conference to regain primacy.

(10-22-2023 10:52 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(10-22-2023 10:35 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The fall of the AAC has been shocking.

Here are our records vs other G5 and G5 Indies (everyone but Notre Dame) the last four regular seasons, excluding 2020:

2019 ............. 17-1
2021 ............. 11-6
2022 ............. 11-4

2023 .............. 9-11

That's a staggering decline.

The decline is a primary reason for the AAC's present 3rd place among the G-5's. One of the detrimental effects is making it more difficult for an AAC school to obtain an NY6 slot.

Ignoring the facts and effects will not cause them to disappear. The problem must be addressed for the conference to regain primacy.

I agree. Papering over the shortcomings doesn't fool anyone. We all have to just get better.

(10-22-2023 10:35 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The fall of the AAC has been shocking.

Here are our records vs other G5 and G5 Indies (everyone but Notre Dame) the last four regular seasons, excluding 2020:

2019 ............. 17-1
2021 ............. 11-6
2022 ............. 11-4

2023 .............. 9-11

That's a staggering decline.

You're surprised by this? We just added six new teams. No kidding the new programs are struggling. You'll next tell us that water is wet and the sun is hot? How are Cincy, Houston, and UCF doing their inaugural year in the B12? Last I knew, they were 1-11 combined in conference play and sitting in the bilge.

As far as the legacy teams, many of the teams left behind suck. Wouldn't you think that's part of the reason they were left behind? Of course that will hurt the AAC, but that doesn't mean the new programs can't step up and fill the voids. It takes time to scale up to a higher tier of competition and it takes time for factors like increased revenue and exposure to make an impact.

3 of the biggest schools leave and get replaced by 6 schools from a lower conference. On top of that, over half the league has first year coaches on complete rebuilds.

This first year was obviously going to have a regression. The world is not ending.