RE: 2023 12 team playoff, using this weeks AP rankings and next year's conferences
Notre Dame will schedule their way into being a lock for the 12-team playoff every year. The Irish will schedule two hard games, lose them, and win the rest. With Marcus Freeman at head coach they will be irresistible for the selection committee at 10-2 regardless of who those 10 wins are against. Not only that, but the committee will jump them over teams like a 10-2 Louisville who beat them on the field.
I also would venture to say that 9-3 Notre Dame with Marcus Freeman as a head coach will give them at minimum, a 75% chance of making the playoffs regardless of who the nine were and who the three were. That said, the same rule holds true for Ohio State and Michigan as well. If Penn State ever accomplished anything, they might get a similar discount. And, lastly, I don't see Alabama ever missing a 12-team playoff so we might as well start calling it an 11-team playoff plus Alabama.
Teams that will always make a 12-team playoff:
1. Alabama: Will be in the 12-team playoffs for at minimum, the remainder of Saban's head coaching career at Alabama.
2. Georgia: Will be in the 12-team playoffs for at minimum, the remainder of Smart's head coaching career at Georgia.
3. Ohio State: Will be in the 12-team playoffs for at minimum, the remainder of Days' head coaching career at Ohio State.
4. Florida State: As long as they play in the ACC, making the playoffs will never be an issue for them.
5. Notre Dame: All they have to do is keep Marcus Freeman an go 10-2 to guarantee a playoff spot. Same deal at 9-3 and they are probably safe as well.
6. Oregon: Just keep out-recruiting everyone out west and keep Phil Knight's millions flowing through the program. 1-3 losses won't be a big deal because the selection committee will always want at least one west coast team.
7. Michigan: * If * (and a big "if") If they can avoid a bowl ban and continue with Sherrone Moore (Harbaugh is completely gone whenever their next loss is), they will continue to schedule like wimps and make it at 9-3 or anything better.
8: Oklahoma/Texas: Probably not both because the odds of both being great the same year as the other in the SEC (note: they will always experience one loss against the other and 1-2 losses each against UGA/Bama/LSU... note: neither one will ever struggle with Texas A&M who is about to be the Illinois of the SEC for the rest of their lives when these two arrive and get the same immediate power boost in recruiting like A&M got and will soon wear out of) but the committee will always find a way to get Middle America watching the playoffs through these guys.
9. G5 Champ: Boise, Oregon State, Washington State, Fresno State, Sun Belt, Liberty... the NCAA is rather dumb, but antitrust laws are something even they comprehend.
10. Big XII Champ: Most years it will be Utah or TCU. These two both have a rich history of winning mid-major conferences, which is most certainly what the Big XII is now without its two heavyweights making all the conference games nationally relevant. Oklahoma State and Kansas State will outspend them for this spot some years though.
11. SEC Team 4 -- The committee will always consider the SEC to be the strongest conference until another conference can duplicate their awesome run of dominance... which is never going to happen. So, pencil in the fourth best SEC team here every year.
12. Penn State/USC/Iowa/Michigan State (if we get a good coach again)/Clemson
Folks, that's basically it. You're not going to see basketball schools make the 12-team playoff and the committee will not be doing any favors to truly random programs like Virginia, Illinois, Ole Miss, ect. We're basically just going to get the usual suspects and once in a while a little brother on a mission like Michigan State or Penn State.
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2023 12 team playoff, using this weeks AP rankings and next year's conferences
