Cubanbull1
Heisman
Posts: 5,093
Joined: Jul 2005
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I Root For: USF
Location: North Georgia
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RE: More realignment coming soon?
(11-23-2023 01:47 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote: (11-23-2023 12:11 PM)XYZ Wrote: (11-22-2023 09:48 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote: (11-22-2023 07:48 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote: (11-22-2023 07:33 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote: yeah, I don't trust the source. But, if something like this did go down, I have to wonder which programs would be left in the ACC? Georgia Tech, Boston College, SMU, Wake Forest, & Virginia Tech, would be my guess.
Well they added Stanford, Cal and SMU to protect themselves. I would see them adding at same time as they lose to keep number at 14 or above. That would basically keep their contract the same.
I just don’t see any ACC team at this point paying exit fee of 250 million or so, to basically go to B12 and earn pretty much the same.
This is why I don’t see more than 4 leaving at one time to BigTen or SEC.
FSU, Clemson, UNC and Virginia are the most likely.
That still leaves
Louisville,Pitt, Syracuse,Virginia Tech, Boston College, NCST,Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Miami, SMU, Stanford and California That’s 13+ ND 14
That would trigger them to add replacements to keep contract safe.
If this all goes down, Stanford and Cal would move to the Big12. Those two would pay to get away from a rebuilt ACC, just like the ran from rebuilding the PAC.
And if Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, & Virginia all find a way to bolt, there won't be a $250 million exit fee anymore.
Plus, losing their biggest brands would cripple their current media deal value, and their media partners would probably lower their payout regardless of which G5 programs they moved to add.
The ACC currently still has their big brands. The Big 12 will have zero big brands after Texas and Oklahoma leave this year. Stanford, Cal, and maybe SMU likely leave to the Big 12 at some point (with Stanford possibly to the B1G) to save on travel costs but it is just as likely UCF and WVU move to the ACC the first chance they get.
Nobody in the Eastern US is leaving even a rebuilt ACC to join the Big 12 when the remaining big football brands are programs like Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Utah.
If membership changes then the AAC will be diminished, and not be equal to its' current value. Don't sell the rebuilt Big12 short. They are rebuilding with mostly P5 members. The ACC will not have that luxury. When Texas and OU began another round of realignment and the PAC came under attack, I was quick to say the Big12 with its' central location was in the best position to benefit and survive, and I think that is still true.
The part you seem to forget are
1. Even if the ACC is diminished as you say, their media contract would remain as is until 2036. That’s comparable to what Big12 would offer.
2. With exit fees and incoming schools taking less, it will allow for ACC to add to those that the B12 might want.
3. Why would any current ACC school pay a 150-250 million fee to go to B12 and earn at best the same? And no the exit fee will not drop because 4 schools left early, because it is based on media deal that’s not changing.
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