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safest bet of the year
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #1
safest bet of the year
The selection show tomorrow is going to draw a huge rating.
12-02-2023 11:47 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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Post: #2
RE: safest bet of the year
This definitely reminds me of 2001. I’ve always wanted a repeat of that mess.
12-02-2023 11:50 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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Post: #3
RE: safest bet of the year
How much sleep will the committee members get tonight?
12-02-2023 11:52 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: safest bet of the year
watch us not having a scenario year like this year in a long time after we get the 12 team playoff.
12-03-2023 12:00 AM
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Renandpat Offline
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Post: #5
RE: safest bet of the year
Can't define huge unless you give us a number to surpass.
12-03-2023 12:18 AM
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Post: #6
RE: safest bet of the year
(12-03-2023 12:00 AM)stever20 Wrote:  watch us not having a scenario year like this year in a long time after we get the 12 team playoff.

I think it’s just going to be different: more like a football version of bracketology and the NCAA Tournament Selection Show where the drama is more about the matchups, who gets home games, who are the 10th/11th/12th teams getting in and who the G5 rep will be. None of the future shows may ever be as dramatic as this year’s show, but by the same token, none of them will be as boring as all of those years when the top 4 was completely predictable.
(This post was last modified: 12-03-2023 12:22 AM by Frank the Tank.)
12-03-2023 12:21 AM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: safest bet of the year
lol, so true-
12-03-2023 12:24 AM
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chargeradio Offline
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Post: #8
RE: safest bet of the year
(12-03-2023 12:00 AM)stever20 Wrote:  watch us not having a scenario year like this year in a long time after we get the 12 team playoff.
Byes:
1. Michigan (B1G)
2. Washington (PAC)
3. Florida State (ACC)
4. Texas (XII)

AQs:
5. Alabama (SEC)
12. Liberty (CUSA)

At-Large:
6. Ohio State
7. Georgia
8. Oregon
9. Missouri
10. Penn State
11. Ole Miss

First Round
Liberty at Alabama, Dec. 16, 1:00 PM ET
Missouri at Oregon, Dec. 15, 8:30 PM ET
Ole Miss at Ohio State, Dec. 16, 4:30 PM ET
Penn State at Georgia Dec. 16, 8:00 PM ET

Quarterfinals
Liberty/Alabama vs Texas, Orange Bowl, Jan. 1 1:00 PM ET
Oregon/Missouri vs. Michigan, Fiesta Bowl, Dec. 29 8:00 PM ET
Ole Miss/Ohio State vs. Florida State, Peach Bowl, Jan. 1. 8:30 PM ET
Penn State/Georgia vs. Washington, Rose Bowl, Jan 1, 5:00 PM ET

Semifinals
Rose Bowl winner vs. Peach Bowl winner, Cotton Bowl, Jan. 10, 8:00 PM ET
Orange Bowl vs. Fiesta Bowl winner, Sugar Bowl, Jan. 11, 8:00 PM ET

Final
Cotton Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner, Houston (NRG Stadium), Jan. 22, 8:00 PM ET
12-03-2023 12:25 AM
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GeminiCoog Offline
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Post: #9
RE: safest bet of the year
(12-03-2023 12:21 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(12-03-2023 12:00 AM)stever20 Wrote:  watch us not having a scenario year like this year in a long time after we get the 12 team playoff.

I think it’s just going to be different: more like a football version of bracketology and the NCAA Tournament Selection Show where the drama is more about the matchups, who gets home games, who are the 10th/11th/12th teams getting in and who the G5 rep will be. None of the future shows may ever be as dramatic as this year’s show, but by the same token, none of them will be as boring as all of those years when the top 4 was completely predictable.

I see the same thing, and I'm all for it, too. lol
12-03-2023 12:37 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #10
RE: safest bet of the year
(12-03-2023 12:25 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  
(12-03-2023 12:00 AM)stever20 Wrote:  watch us not having a scenario year like this year in a long time after we get the 12 team playoff.
Byes:
1. Michigan (B1G)
2. Washington (PAC)
3. Florida State (ACC)
4. Texas (XII)

AQs:
5. Alabama (SEC)
12. Liberty (CUSA)

At-Large:
6. Ohio State
7. Georgia
8. Oregon
9. Missouri
10. Penn State
11. Ole Miss

First Round
Liberty at Alabama, Dec. 16, 1:00 PM ET
Missouri at Oregon, Dec. 15, 8:30 PM ET
Ole Miss at Ohio State, Dec. 16, 4:30 PM ET
Penn State at Georgia Dec. 16, 8:00 PM ET

Quarterfinals
Liberty/Alabama vs Texas, Orange Bowl, Jan. 1 1:00 PM ET
Oregon/Missouri vs. Michigan, Fiesta Bowl, Dec. 29 8:00 PM ET
Ole Miss/Ohio State vs. Florida State, Peach Bowl, Jan. 1. 8:30 PM ET
Penn State/Georgia vs. Washington, Rose Bowl, Jan 1, 5:00 PM ET

Semifinals
Rose Bowl winner vs. Peach Bowl winner, Cotton Bowl, Jan. 10, 8:00 PM ET
Orange Bowl vs. Fiesta Bowl winner, Sugar Bowl, Jan. 11, 8:00 PM ET

Final
Cotton Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner, Houston (NRG Stadium), Jan. 22, 8:00 PM ET

man that would be so incredible.
12-03-2023 12:38 AM
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Frank the Tank Online
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Post: #11
RE: safest bet of the year
(12-03-2023 12:38 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(12-03-2023 12:25 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  
(12-03-2023 12:00 AM)stever20 Wrote:  watch us not having a scenario year like this year in a long time after we get the 12 team playoff.
Byes:
1. Michigan (B1G)
2. Washington (PAC)
3. Florida State (ACC)
4. Texas (XII)

AQs:
5. Alabama (SEC)
12. Liberty (CUSA)

At-Large:
6. Ohio State
7. Georgia
8. Oregon
9. Missouri
10. Penn State
11. Ole Miss

First Round
Liberty at Alabama, Dec. 16, 1:00 PM ET
Missouri at Oregon, Dec. 15, 8:30 PM ET
Ole Miss at Ohio State, Dec. 16, 4:30 PM ET
Penn State at Georgia Dec. 16, 8:00 PM ET

Quarterfinals
Liberty/Alabama vs Texas, Orange Bowl, Jan. 1 1:00 PM ET
Oregon/Missouri vs. Michigan, Fiesta Bowl, Dec. 29 8:00 PM ET
Ole Miss/Ohio State vs. Florida State, Peach Bowl, Jan. 1. 8:30 PM ET
Penn State/Georgia vs. Washington, Rose Bowl, Jan 1, 5:00 PM ET

Semifinals
Rose Bowl winner vs. Peach Bowl winner, Cotton Bowl, Jan. 10, 8:00 PM ET
Orange Bowl vs. Fiesta Bowl winner, Sugar Bowl, Jan. 11, 8:00 PM ET

Final
Cotton Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner, Houston (NRG Stadium), Jan. 22, 8:00 PM ET

man that would be so incredible.

Yeah - the 12-team CFP can’t get here soon enough. This season is a perfect reminder of why playoff expansion has long been necessary.
12-03-2023 12:49 AM
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GeminiCoog Offline
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Post: #12
RE: safest bet of the year
(12-03-2023 12:49 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(12-03-2023 12:38 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(12-03-2023 12:25 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  
(12-03-2023 12:00 AM)stever20 Wrote:  watch us not having a scenario year like this year in a long time after we get the 12 team playoff.
Byes:
1. Michigan (B1G)
2. Washington (PAC)
3. Florida State (ACC)
4. Texas (XII)

AQs:
5. Alabama (SEC)
12. Liberty (CUSA)

At-Large:
6. Ohio State
7. Georgia
8. Oregon
9. Missouri
10. Penn State
11. Ole Miss

First Round
Liberty at Alabama, Dec. 16, 1:00 PM ET
Missouri at Oregon, Dec. 15, 8:30 PM ET
Ole Miss at Ohio State, Dec. 16, 4:30 PM ET
Penn State at Georgia Dec. 16, 8:00 PM ET

Quarterfinals
Liberty/Alabama vs Texas, Orange Bowl, Jan. 1 1:00 PM ET
Oregon/Missouri vs. Michigan, Fiesta Bowl, Dec. 29 8:00 PM ET
Ole Miss/Ohio State vs. Florida State, Peach Bowl, Jan. 1. 8:30 PM ET
Penn State/Georgia vs. Washington, Rose Bowl, Jan 1, 5:00 PM ET

Semifinals
Rose Bowl winner vs. Peach Bowl winner, Cotton Bowl, Jan. 10, 8:00 PM ET
Orange Bowl vs. Fiesta Bowl winner, Sugar Bowl, Jan. 11, 8:00 PM ET

Final
Cotton Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner, Houston (NRG Stadium), Jan. 22, 8:00 PM ET

man that would be so incredible.

Yeah - the 12-team CFP can’t get here soon enough. This season is a perfect reminder of why playoff expansion has long been necessary.

And we agree yet again. Seriously, this season is the perfect reason why it's being expanded next year. Until then, we've gotta play one more game of "Who's Number Four?" before the final CFP rankings are released.
12-03-2023 12:54 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #13
RE: safest bet of the year
(12-03-2023 12:54 AM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  
(12-03-2023 12:49 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(12-03-2023 12:38 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(12-03-2023 12:25 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  
(12-03-2023 12:00 AM)stever20 Wrote:  watch us not having a scenario year like this year in a long time after we get the 12 team playoff.
Byes:
1. Michigan (B1G)
2. Washington (PAC)
3. Florida State (ACC)
4. Texas (XII)

AQs:
5. Alabama (SEC)
12. Liberty (CUSA)

At-Large:
6. Ohio State
7. Georgia
8. Oregon
9. Missouri
10. Penn State
11. Ole Miss

First Round
Liberty at Alabama, Dec. 16, 1:00 PM ET
Missouri at Oregon, Dec. 15, 8:30 PM ET
Ole Miss at Ohio State, Dec. 16, 4:30 PM ET
Penn State at Georgia Dec. 16, 8:00 PM ET

Quarterfinals
Liberty/Alabama vs Texas, Orange Bowl, Jan. 1 1:00 PM ET
Oregon/Missouri vs. Michigan, Fiesta Bowl, Dec. 29 8:00 PM ET
Ole Miss/Ohio State vs. Florida State, Peach Bowl, Jan. 1. 8:30 PM ET
Penn State/Georgia vs. Washington, Rose Bowl, Jan 1, 5:00 PM ET

Semifinals
Rose Bowl winner vs. Peach Bowl winner, Cotton Bowl, Jan. 10, 8:00 PM ET
Orange Bowl vs. Fiesta Bowl winner, Sugar Bowl, Jan. 11, 8:00 PM ET

Final
Cotton Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner, Houston (NRG Stadium), Jan. 22, 8:00 PM ET

man that would be so incredible.

Yeah - the 12-team CFP can’t get here soon enough. This season is a perfect reminder of why playoff expansion has long been necessary.

And we agree yet again. Seriously, this season is the perfect reason why it's being expanded next year. Until then, we've gotta play one more game of "Who's Number Four?" before the final CFP rankings are released.
This is only the 2nd really hard year of the 10 with a 4 team format even.
12-03-2023 12:59 AM
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GeminiCoog Offline
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Post: #14
RE: safest bet of the year
(12-03-2023 12:59 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(12-03-2023 12:54 AM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  
(12-03-2023 12:49 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(12-03-2023 12:38 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(12-03-2023 12:25 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  Byes:
1. Michigan (B1G)
2. Washington (PAC)
3. Florida State (ACC)
4. Texas (XII)

AQs:
5. Alabama (SEC)
12. Liberty (CUSA)

At-Large:
6. Ohio State
7. Georgia
8. Oregon
9. Missouri
10. Penn State
11. Ole Miss

First Round
Liberty at Alabama, Dec. 16, 1:00 PM ET
Missouri at Oregon, Dec. 15, 8:30 PM ET
Ole Miss at Ohio State, Dec. 16, 4:30 PM ET
Penn State at Georgia Dec. 16, 8:00 PM ET

Quarterfinals
Liberty/Alabama vs Texas, Orange Bowl, Jan. 1 1:00 PM ET
Oregon/Missouri vs. Michigan, Fiesta Bowl, Dec. 29 8:00 PM ET
Ole Miss/Ohio State vs. Florida State, Peach Bowl, Jan. 1. 8:30 PM ET
Penn State/Georgia vs. Washington, Rose Bowl, Jan 1, 5:00 PM ET

Semifinals
Rose Bowl winner vs. Peach Bowl winner, Cotton Bowl, Jan. 10, 8:00 PM ET
Orange Bowl vs. Fiesta Bowl winner, Sugar Bowl, Jan. 11, 8:00 PM ET

Final
Cotton Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner, Houston (NRG Stadium), Jan. 22, 8:00 PM ET

man that would be so incredible.

Yeah - the 12-team CFP can’t get here soon enough. This season is a perfect reminder of why playoff expansion has long been necessary.

And we agree yet again. Seriously, this season is the perfect reason why it's being expanded next year. Until then, we've gotta play one more game of "Who's Number Four?" before the final CFP rankings are released.
This is only the 2nd really hard year of the 10 with a 4 team format even.

True, but this may be the hardest year of them all. Six of what will most likely be the final Top 8 have a legitimate case to be in this year, to be honest.
12-03-2023 01:01 AM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #15
RE: safest bet of the year
(12-03-2023 01:01 AM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  
(12-03-2023 12:59 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(12-03-2023 12:54 AM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  
(12-03-2023 12:49 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(12-03-2023 12:38 AM)stever20 Wrote:  man that would be so incredible.

Yeah - the 12-team CFP can’t get here soon enough. This season is a perfect reminder of why playoff expansion has long been necessary.

And we agree yet again. Seriously, this season is the perfect reason why it's being expanded next year. Until then, we've gotta play one more game of "Who's Number Four?" before the final CFP rankings are released.
This is only the 2nd really hard year of the 10 with a 4 team format even.

True, but this may be the hardest year of them all. Six of what will most likely be the final Top 8 have a legitimate case to be in this year, to be honest.

This year is also unique because teams likely outside the top 4 have the talent to win the overall championship. Ohio State, Georgia and Alabama have the most talent…ESPN pundits may not have their preferred teams.
12-03-2023 01:15 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #16
RE: safest bet of the year
(12-02-2023 11:52 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  How much sleep will the committee members get tonight?

Eight plus hours after highballs to relax this evening. They already know who they want, just like in every other year. What they have to do is come up with the reasons they need to justify what they want. That may take some time and provide some entertainment.

There is an old axiom. When a committee of distinguished people is assembled somebody is about to get screwed. The question is which schools? The work remaining is composing a comprehensive and rational excuse for doing what every CFP committee has done, come up with 4 schools which maximize the profits of those televising the games. Michigan, Texas, and Alabama drive ratings. Washington provides an untapped area while Florida State, Georgia, and Ohio State more or less duplicate markets the first 3 cover only with lesser ratings. Florida State's injuries will become a talking point, and the field will likely be Michigan, Texas, Alabama, and Washington. Big 10 and SEC audiences are the largest and SEC and Big 12 audiences have the highest number of viewers percentage wise out of total possible viewers. Reaching college sports fans on the West Coast is more important than duplicating Eastern markets.

So, they'll justify that, IMO. And it's not what I believe to be just, or necessarily fair, but it is what my cynical mind says will happen. And while I'm being cynical if ESPN does want to sculpt a premier football conference then a snub of Florida State could be used to justify their exit from the ACC along with perhaps that of Clemson, a self-fulfilling prophecy if you will.

And on the political side, it was Sankey who pushed for an expanded playoff for this year. That won't wear well with the committee and they know it.

Now what did I think was fair? I thought that TCU should have gotten in a few years back, or Baylor, but they didn't because of market reach, IMO. I thought Oklahoma State got hosed after the plane crash and that a little humanity should have been shown, but business took over as Oklahoma State didn't have much of a national audience. I think this year was freakish in the way things lined up. Alabama opened with Texas and with Milroe starting his first game. Usually an early season loss doesn't inhibit you, but whether a miracle or a con job, Alabama pulled victory out of thin air in Auburn, and played poorly enough to have lost. Georgia had Oklahoma cancel because of the scheduling issues this year with them remaining another year in the Big 12 and it hurt their S.O.S.. Florida State deserves to be included. How much more than Georgia or Alabama or Ohio State? Who knows. Washington and Michigan earned it and most years their actual strength would have been revealed against the teams they played in the CFP. It's just the way the chips fell this year. And by all past committee conduct picking the best 4, or most deserving 4 is going to be out of reach. It will come down to pleasing their benefactors and sponsors and that in itself is political. The best thing would be to have all 8 in this year and let them win it on the field. But Michigan, Washington and FSU are unbeaten, and picking between Texas, Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama should be the problem of the committee. I just doubt it is confined to that with market reach at stake.
(This post was last modified: 12-03-2023 04:20 AM by JRsec.)
12-03-2023 04:00 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #17
RE: safest bet of the year
(12-03-2023 04:00 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-02-2023 11:52 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  How much sleep will the committee members get tonight?

Eight plus hours after highballs to relax this evening. They already know who they want, just like in every other year. What they have to do is come up with the reasons they need to justify what they want. That may take some time and provide some entertainment.

There is an old axiom. When a committee of distinguished people is assembled somebody is about to get screwed. The question is which schools? The work remaining is composing a comprehensive and rational excuse for doing what every CFP committee has done, come up with 4 schools which maximize the profits of those televising the games. Michigan, Texas, and Alabama drive ratings. Washington provides an untapped area while Florida State, Georgia, and Ohio State more or less duplicate markets the first 3 cover only with lesser ratings. Florida State's injuries will become a talking point, and the field will likely be Michigan, Texas, Alabama, and Washington. Big 10 and SEC audiences are the largest and SEC and Big 12 audiences have the highest number of viewers percentage wise out of total possible viewers. Reaching college sports fans on the West Coast is more important than duplicating Eastern markets.

So, they'll justify that, IMO. And it's not what I believe to be just, or necessarily fair, but it is what my cynical mind says will happen. And while I'm being cynical if ESPN does want to sculpt a premier football conference then a snub of Florida State could be used to justify their exit from the ACC along with perhaps that of Clemson, a self-fulfilling prophecy if you will.

And on the political side, it was Sankey who pushed for an expanded playoff for this year. That won't wear well with the committee and they know it.

Now what did I think was fair? I thought that TCU should have gotten in a few years back, or Baylor, but they didn't because of market reach, IMO. I thought Oklahoma State got hosed after the plane crash and that a little humanity should have been shown, but business took over as Oklahoma State didn't have much of a national audience. I think this year was freakish in the way things lined up. Alabama opened with Texas and with Milroe starting his first game. Usually an early season loss doesn't inhibit you, but whether a miracle or a con job, Alabama pulled victory out of thin air in Auburn, and played poorly enough to have lost. Georgia had Oklahoma cancel because of the scheduling issues this year with them remaining another year in the Big 12 and it hurt their S.O.S.. Florida State deserves to be included. How much more than Georgia or Alabama or Ohio State? Who knows. Washington and Michigan earned it and most years their actual strength would have been revealed against the teams they played in the CFP. It's just the way the chips fell this year. And by all past committee conduct picking the best 4, or most deserving 4 is going to be out of reach. It will come down to pleasing their benefactors and sponsors and that in itself is political. The best thing would be to have all 8 in this year and let them win it on the field. But Michigan, Washington and FSU are unbeaten, and picking between Texas, Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama should be the problem of the committee. I just doubt it is confined to that with market reach at stake.

I know many of you won't like it, but when I'm right, I'm right! It's a marketing move thinly hidden behind the invented reasoning for this year. It's a business move for the marketing of the playoffs nationally.
12-03-2023 12:29 PM
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