If it happens, does the Non Paid FBS schools become the FCS? For schools that pay?

A lot will opt in at first. The true test will be to see how things shake out in a decade when most of the opt-ins are still trying to keep up with the $30k minimum as the big dogs are up to $100k per student-athlete or more. They will be able to recruit every good player they want away from G5 and FCS with even greater ease than they do currently. It’s then that we’ll see those top schools truly breakaway from the NCAA into a semi-pro model for football and basketball.

If we only have to offer the minimum Arkansas State will do it. But if its going to turn into this game where everyone else wants to offer 100 plus scholarships we're out. It's not a question of can G5 schools afford a few million. The answer to that is probably, especially if we can funnel our Collective money back into school funds. The issue becomes the rules of self governance and the unlimited cap. If The SEC wants to run with 100 plus scholarships and offer 100K plus salaries to football players, there's no way even the wealthiest G5's could come close to matching that. Even most P4's would struggle. There becomes a question of competing as a whole. Is it really worth playing in a division with Alabama when they can pay their players 100 times what you can?

My expectation is the Sun Belt will vote as a group on what to do and make a call from there. Its doubtful 1 or 2 schools try to go it alone.

(12-06-2023 12:14 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-06-2023 12:06 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(12-06-2023 11:18 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  ... My assumption is if you are an AAC team or the league as a whole if you opt out your deal with ESPN is gone, so in ECU's case there's 7 million a year gone immediately. ...

And now we see where the $30,000 number comes from ... the AAC incumbent and likely next MWC media deals pay for a baseline package (though not the "+" that the P4 conferences will have), but the AAC newbies have to decide if they are going to pony up to stay in the conference.

So the AAC, Sunbelt and MWC opt-in, possibly with one or more schools dropping out of the AAC or Sunbelt to CUSA, CUSA and the MAC opt out.

Most of the Sun Belt does not have the budgets. CUSA, MAC and Sun Belt are pretty close. MWC and AAC spend more.

The count I did was that showed MAC with more "low budget" schools was under $35m, but it was just sorting the USA Today numbers by conference ... I didn't sort out by current memberships:

The USA Today numbers for budgets (expenses) {NB. Not current numbers}:
$57.8m James Madison
$51.9m Old Dominion
-------------
$45.4m Coastal Carolina
$39.9m Georgia State
$39.4m Marshall
$38.6m App State
$38.4m Louisiana
$37.8m Texas State
-------------
$33.4m Troy
$33.0m South Alabama
$32.3m Arkansas State
$30.7m Georgia Southern
$28.3m Southern Miss
-------------
$20.5m ULM

$??.?m Liberty (USA Today #'s skip independents)
$39.4m Florida Int'l
-------------
$35.6m MTSU
$35.1m WKU
$34.3m UTEP
$32.5m NMSU
-------------
$28.3m LA Tech
-------------
$21.0m Sam Houston State (when FCS)
$20.3m Jax State (when FCS)

$39.9m Buffalo
-------------
$37.9m MiamiU
-------------
$35.6m Toledo
$34.4m WMU
$34.3m CMU
$33.0m EMU
-------------
$31.3m OhioU
$30.3m Akron
$29.6m Kent State
$28.5m Ball State
-------------
$25.4m Bowling Green
$24.1m NIU

(12-06-2023 12:19 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  I dont think all of the AAC and MWC opt in but i would guess all are trying to figure it the math right now. Anybody outside those conference besides Liberty are just about a hard no.

It could well be that "all of the AAC opt-in", but that doesn't include all of the current AAC schools and that does include some schools that are not presently AAC.

(12-06-2023 01:03 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(12-06-2023 12:14 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-06-2023 12:06 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(12-06-2023 11:18 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  ... My assumption is if you are an AAC team or the league as a whole if you opt out your deal with ESPN is gone, so in ECU's case there's 7 million a year gone immediately. ...

And now we see where the $30,000 number comes from ... the AAC incumbent and likely next MWC media deals pay for a baseline package (though not the "+" that the P4 conferences will have), but the AAC newbies have to decide if they are going to pony up to stay in the conference.

So the AAC, Sunbelt and MWC opt-in, possibly with one or more schools dropping out of the AAC or Sunbelt to CUSA, CUSA and the MAC opt out.

Most of the Sun Belt does not have the budgets. CUSA, MAC and Sun Belt are pretty close. MWC and AAC spend more.

The count I did was that showed MAC with more "low budget" schools was under $35m, but it was just sorting the USA Today numbers by conference ... I didn't sort out by current memberships:

The USA Today numbers for budgets (expenses) {NB. Not current numbers}:
$57.8m James Madison
$51.9m Old Dominion
-------------
$45.4m Coastal Carolina
$39.9m Georgia State
$39.4m Marshall
$38.6m App State
$38.4m Louisiana
$37.8m Texas State
-------------
$33.4m Troy
$33.0m South Alabama
$32.3m Arkansas State
$30.7m Georgia Southern
$28.3m Southern Miss
-------------
$20.5m ULM

$??.?m Liberty (USA Today #'s skip independents)
$39.4m Florida Int'l
-------------
$35.6m MTSU
$35.1m WKU
$34.3m UTEP
$32.5m NMSU
-------------
$28.3m LA Tech
-------------
$21.0m Sam Houston State (when FCS)
$20.3m Jax State (when FCS)

$39.9m Buffalo
-------------
$37.9m MiamiU
-------------
$35.6m Toledo
$34.4m WMU
$34.3m CMU
$33.0m EMU
-------------
$31.3m OhioU
$30.3m Akron
$29.6m Kent State
$28.5m Ball State
-------------
$25.4m Bowling Green
$24.1m NIU

Sun Belt schools are spending a lot more than in the list on the sticky. They seem to have ramped up. It was only 5 Sun Belt, 5 CUSA and 3 MAC over $33 million and only the VA schools over $40 million.

(12-06-2023 12:45 PM)unalions Wrote:  A lot will opt in at first. The true test will be to see how things shake out in a decade when most of the opt-ins are still trying to keep up with the $30k minimum as the big dogs are up to $100k per student-athlete or more. They will be able to recruit every good player they want away from G5 and FCS with even greater ease than they do currently. It’s then that we’ll see those top schools truly breakaway from the NCAA into a semi-pro model for football and basketball.

The pecking order for players has always existed, and we already have free agency and teams being able to basically freely recruit players from other schools and pay them whatever they'd like. There are always going to be more good college players than actual playing time at the "power" conferences, and eventually if you want to make the league you've got to have tape. Would it make being a G5 more precarious than it already is in terms of roster turnover? Probably, but so what the good G5 programs and good coaches would figure out how to handle all rosters being essentially 1 year. It's not like opting in or out would solve the roster turnover issue, there's not going to be some rule where the new subdivision can't recruit from the lower divisions, but if you are even one of the lower end of the top division you'd have an advantage over anyone in the lower division same as current bottom FBS teams are ahead of FCS teams in the pecking order.

Dellenger just mentioned Baker said about 100 schools which hints as the composition I proposed.

I cant wait to see which school tells their FB players to identify as women so they can more easily handle title ix requirements of this. You know its going to happen.

(12-06-2023 01:52 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Dellenger just mentioned Baker said about 100 schools which hints as the composition I proposed.

P4+2pac+aac+mwc=96

(12-06-2023 02:40 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-06-2023 01:52 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Dellenger just mentioned Baker said about 100 schools which hints as the composition I proposed.

P4+2pac+aac+mwc=96

The Big East and Gonzaga will opt in too, and service academies will possibly opt out. 105 total.