(12-23-2023 05:43 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  As I’ve been thinking about it more, my last point ought to be more prima facie evidence of the ESPN’s refusal to spend more money: they’ve rejected higher payments to the SEC for a 9th conference game. This means that the SEC went to ESPN and said, “Hey! We can make Texas-Texas A&M into an annual game again and have way more games between UT, OU, UGA, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Florida, etc. if you just pay us a little more.” ESPN’s response has been, “Nah - we good. Bank account is tapped out.”

This makes any argument that ESPN is going to open up its checkbook because it wants to integrate FSU games into that lineup totally faulty. ESPN has the unilateral ability to get a whole bunch of better SEC games by paying more for a 9th conference game without messing with GORs or ripping up a favorable ACC contract, yet it’s not doing it because they are truly and completely and utterly tapped out of money. It’s simply not there anymore.

You can't get blood from a turnip.

(12-23-2023 05:43 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  As I’ve been thinking about it more, my last point ought to be more prima facie evidence of the ESPN’s refusal to spend more money: they’ve rejected higher payments to the SEC for a 9th conference game. This means that the SEC went to ESPN and said, “Hey! We can make Texas-Texas A&M into an annual game again and have way more games between UT, OU, UGA, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Florida, etc. if you just pay us a little more.” ESPN’s response has been, “Nah - we good. Bank account is tapped out.”

This makes any argument that ESPN is going to open up its checkbook because it wants to integrate FSU games into that lineup totally faulty. ESPN has the unilateral ability to get a whole bunch of better SEC games by paying more for a 9th conference game without messing with GORs or ripping up a favorable ACC contract, yet it’s not doing it because they are truly and completely and utterly tapped out of money. It’s simply not there anymore.

So do you think the sports rights boom is dead? No material raise for the Big 10 in 2029?

Two random thoughts ...

1) if FSU is in the SEC, yes ESPN would be paying a lot more for them, but it would also be getting much better games from them - FSU vs Georgia. FSU vs Texas, FSU vs Tennessee, etc.

More "whale" games that bring in 8, 9 or 10 milllion viewers could be worth it.

2) How much underpaid is the ACC? If the ACC deal went to market right now, the only difference between it and the B12 would be Clemson and FSU. They are maybe worth $10m more than what the B12 gets, so not much different than what the ACC will be making.

So I am not sure ESPN views the ACC deal as a massive bargain.

I wonder if ESPN is worried that the Florida AD who is investigating the CFP committee might actually turn up something that would be linked back to them? Might possibly be an ace in the hole when it comes to ESPN wanting to settle this quick.

(12-23-2023 06:01 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(12-23-2023 05:43 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  As I’ve been thinking about it more, my last point ought to be more prima facie evidence of the ESPN’s refusal to spend more money: they’ve rejected higher payments to the SEC for a 9th conference game. This means that the SEC went to ESPN and said, “Hey! We can make Texas-Texas A&M into an annual game again and have way more games between UT, OU, UGA, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Florida, etc. if you just pay us a little more.” ESPN’s response has been, “Nah - we good. Bank account is tapped out.”

This makes any argument that ESPN is going to open up its checkbook because it wants to integrate FSU games into that lineup totally faulty. ESPN has the unilateral ability to get a whole bunch of better SEC games by paying more for a 9th conference game without messing with GORs or ripping up a favorable ACC contract, yet it’s not doing it because they are truly and completely and utterly tapped out of money. It’s simply not there anymore.

So do you think the sports rights boom is dead? No material raise for the Big 10 in 2029?

Not necessarily because Amazon and other streaming players do find a large amount of value in sports rights. (Note that Amazon offered more to the Big Ten than NBC or CBS, but the over-the-network time slots being offered were still too valuable to pass up.)

However, the days that ESPN coming over the top to sign huge rights deals are simply over.

Also, the very top tier sports rights will still likely command top dollar: the NFL, Big Ten, SEC, and NBA in particular in the US. The “sports rights boom” is already over for the next tier down and “middle class” of sports rights. That’s why the Pac-12 is dead.

(12-23-2023 06:03 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Two random thoughts ...

1) if FSU is in the SEC, yes ESPN would be paying a lot more for them, but it would also be getting much better games from them - FSU vs Georgia. FSU vs Texas, FSU vs Tennessee, etc.

More "whale" games that bring in 8, 9 or 10 milllion viewers could be worth it.

2) How much underpaid is the ACC? If the ACC deal went to market right now, the only difference between it and the B12 would be Clemson and FSU. They are maybe worth $10m more than what the B12 gets, so not much different than what the ACC will be making.

So I am not sure ESPN views the ACC deal as a massive bargain.

To my earlier point, ESPN can do this NOW by paying more money to the SEC for a 9th conference game. There would be more of those “whale games” without messing with GORs, breaking contracts, lawsuits or anything. It is a complete unilateral choice and ESPN is straight up passing on it. THEY HAVE NO MONEY.

(12-23-2023 06:07 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:  I wonder if ESPN is worried that the Florida AD who is investigating the CFP committee might actually turn up something that would be linked back to them? Might possibly be an ace in the hole when it comes to ESPN wanting to settle this quick.

I legitimately don’t think ESPN has a single iota care in the world about this here.

Once again, stop thinking about college sports and ESPN and start thinking about Wall Street and The Walt Disney Company. The entire ESPN business model that has powered Disney’s profits for years is in irreversible decline. It is the single greatest anchor on Disney’s stock price and that is the only thing that Bob Iger cares about (as his job depends on it). The only way to minimize the damage is to ensure that the cost structure at ESPN doesn’t go up.

(12-23-2023 03:58 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  ESPN isn’t going to encourage a thing.

They are in financial austerity mode. The total disconnect with fans is that the FSU case largely rests on arguing that ESPN got such an insanely good deal from the ACC that the ACC breached their fiduciary duty. If that’s true, why on Earth would ESPN do anything to touch that deal at all? It makes no financial sense.

Wall Street legitimately doesn’t care if ESPN continues to have FSU games or not, but they very much care if they have to spend more money for anything other than the NBA or keeping NFL games down the road.

Fans are overrating how much ESPN cares to please the SEC or showing FSU games in general and COMPLETELY underrating how much every single decision at ESPN and Disney in general is being filtered right now through the cold, harsh, pure short-term cost reductionist stance of Wall Street. They are NOT looking long-term and caring whatsoever if FSU ends up in the Big Ten or SEC. Wall Street straight up wants ESPN to stop spending more money and they’ve made that loud and clear. The power isn’t with the South, but rather the hedge fund managers and activist investors in New York that just want Disney’s stock price to go up 10% in the next 6 months.

Ok Frank, I concede ESPN and Disney management is a cluster, and Wallstreet wants cost reduction, but no one is against making more money. Besides, you are forgetting about the SEC's pro rata clause allowing it to add P5 schools at the same rate per school. If the SEC wants more schools we will get more schools.

(12-23-2023 06:16 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(12-23-2023 06:07 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:  I wonder if ESPN is worried that the Florida AD who is investigating the CFP committee might actually turn up something that would be linked back to them? Might possibly be an ace in the hole when it comes to ESPN wanting to settle this quick.

I legitimately don’t think ESPN has a single iota care in the world about this here.

Once again, stop thinking about college sports and ESPN and start thinking about Wall Street and The Walt Disney Company. The entire ESPN business model that has powered Disney’s profits for years is in irreversible decline. It is the single greatest anchor on Disney’s stock price and that is the only thing that Bob Iger cares about (as his job depends on it). The only way to minimize the damage is to ensure that the cost structure at ESPN doesn’t go up.

The whole Disney stuff at the main headquarters effecting the ESPN part with their political BS hurt them. ESPN gave the ACC their network because they have the major media markets when the Big 12 did not. The Big 12 is watered down now for any ACC schools to join them. Big 12 don't have their own network, and ACC does. That is why the PAC 2 have control of their Network. Learn from the lessons of the old PAC 12 running their network and with ESPN running theirs? Merge PAC 2 and the MWC. Talk with ESPN about a merger of the PAC/MWC with ACC, and then merge the group with the Big 12. You could still have the three conferences, but ESPN could show better match ups with the four conferences with all three share a network, and show back to back games which includes Hawaii. Duke vs Hawaii as a late night game, or a UCF at Hawaii, Boise State vs Wake Forest things like that. Even though Boise State have been down? They still draw a lot of viewers across the country on national tv. UNLV Vs Kansas may go on the new merged network. Boise State at BYU would be on ESPN or ABC. Fresno State vs Oklahoma State could be on ABC or ESPN as well.

I would not be shocked if there wasn’t already a plan lined up, negotiated through proxies and third parties, for 3 more schools to join Florida St in their their revolt when things start looking promising in Florida St’s legal battle.

The SEC wins big here because:

Those 4 ACC properties are more valuable paired with SEC schools
They get to renegotiate the ACC deal, which was already a bargain, for even less
Those left behind ACC schools they screwed over then subsidize their media rights losses with exit fees
Making this deal keeps FOX/CBS/NBC from steering those ACC schools to the Big 10.

I’m leaning towards the idea that we will see 4 schools depart for the SEC and then 2 more (1 being ND) leave for the Big 10. My guess is FSU, Clemson, UNC, & NC St to the SEC and ND and Miami to the Big 10.

That puts both at 20, and 5 of the Magnificent 7 in P2 leagues.

(12-23-2023 11:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I would not be shocked if there wasn’t already a plan lined up, negotiated through proxies and third parties, for 3 more schools to join Florida St in their their revolt when things start looking promising in Florida St’s legal battle.

The SEC wins big here because:

Those 4 ACC properties are more valuable paired with SEC schools
They get to renegotiate the ACC deal, which was already a bargain, for even less
Those left behind ACC schools they screwed over then subsidize their media rights losses with exit fees
Making this deal keeps FOX/CBS/NBC from steering those ACC schools to the Big 10.

I’m leaning towards the idea that we will see 4 schools depart for the SEC and then 2 more (1 being ND) leave for the Big 10. My guess is FSU, Clemson, UNC, & NC St to the SEC and ND and Miami to the Big 10.

That puts both at 20, and 5 of the Magnificent 7 in P2 leagues.

Sounds like tortious interference to me, but lawlessness is more and more popular nowadays. So maybe?

(12-23-2023 09:00 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  If the SEC wants more schools we will get more schools.

So the SEC's pro-rata clause -- the one ESPN signed off on and included in the contract -- is ironclad?

(12-23-2023 11:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I would not be shocked if there wasn’t already a plan lined up, negotiated through proxies and third parties, for 3 more schools to join Florida St in their their revolt when things start looking promising in Florida St’s legal battle.

The SEC wins big here because:

Those 4 ACC properties are more valuable paired with SEC schools
They get to renegotiate the ACC deal, which was already a bargain, for even less
Those left behind ACC schools they screwed over then subsidize their media rights losses with exit fees
Making this deal keeps FOX/CBS/NBC from steering those ACC schools to the Big 10.

I’m leaning towards the idea that we will see 4 schools depart for the SEC and then 2 more (1 being ND) leave for the Big 10. My guess is FSU, Clemson, UNC, & NC St to the SEC and ND and Miami to the Big 10.

That puts both at 20, and 5 of the Magnificent 7 in P2 leagues.

That’s 6 of 18. I’d guess the remaining 12 would try to stick together and add Connecticut, Memphis, South Florida, and Tulane for 16.

Frank's case is correct. The money to be made with FSU in the SEC is not enough to bother, if it brings any additional eyeballs at all.

This European Super League is an ESPN project and NOT cheap. But it is a true virgin market form them, so could be justified.

What everyone forgets is Disney is losing subscribers and its movies have been massive bombs running red ink into the $billions (multiple billions). To a certain extent ESPN will be belt tightening for years due to the failings of the movie and parks these days. There are clear reasons for this, and Bob Iger is definitely a big part of the problem. To be honest I don't see the mouse house getting its act together until it has a very different management team, one with a much firmer grasp on original content and the middle consumer wants and direction without the noise and drama of things they don't want. Until that happens ESPN is hostage, and will have serious financial constraints. A tick better or worse CFB numbers is not a difference maker.

To what Frank has been saying, he's right, ESPN had signaled to the
Powers that be in CFB about media rights continually going up, they pretty much flat out said there not in the future. Golden age of sports inflation is over. For CFB ..Clay Travis predicted this predicament or ESPN years ago. Is ESPN going away, no are they set for severe cut back, in media right expenses? Yes
ESPN has a unilateral right to pick up the ACC media rights or not beyond 2027. So let's pretend they don't, that's $ 528M or more or less , roughly a year that ESPN doesn't have to spend.Under the circumstances. That could just tell the ACC we're not picking up the option. People say what are the chances of that happening? I say even money. Imho.

(12-24-2023 01:25 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(12-23-2023 09:00 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  If the SEC wants more schools we will get more schools.

So the SEC's pro-rata clause -- the one ESPN signed off on and included in the contract -- is ironclad?

The ACC has a pro-rata clause. It was for up to 4 schools (P or G).
So far the league has used three of the 4.

Even globally sports rights have been going down. In Italy and France, both of the top domestic soccer leagues took pay cuts on their new deals. The Premier League signed a deal with a much smaller increase than last time. We are reaching a point where TV companies are paying for brands. They are cutting the wheat from the chaff.

(12-24-2023 01:25 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(12-23-2023 09:00 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  If the SEC wants more schools we will get more schools.

So the SEC's pro-rata clause -- the one ESPN signed off on and included in the contract -- is ironclad?

Assuming the SEC has a pro rata clause, why would they even offer FSU a pro rata share? It adds nothing to the existing members' bottom line. At best FSU gets offered a partial share, which may be no more than they're getting from the ACC today. (See UW and Oregon's deal with the B1G).

(12-23-2023 05:07 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  . . . .
I'm still processing the news that ESPN wrote themselves an option to dump the ACC in 2027.

Remarkable news, that.

(12-24-2023 01:25 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(12-23-2023 09:00 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  If the SEC wants more schools we will get more schools.

So the SEC's pro-rata clause -- the one ESPN signed off on and included in the contract -- is ironclad?

To be sure, I’m not suggesting that ESPN wouldn’t follow its contracts. If FSU gets out of the ACC on its own, then ESPN has to deal with it in the manner required by their existing contracts.

However, it simply makes no sense that anyone believes that ESPN *wants* to help FSU and the SEC out here. Once again, ESPN isn’t even willing to pay for a 9th SEC conference game so that it could get matchups like Texas-Texas A&M annually again. Yet, if you believe some fans here, ESPN is going to *want* to extinguish one of its cheapest long-term contracts (the ACC contract), help get rid of the GOR framework that actually benefits ESPN (as it protects its interests in the ACC Network and other TV contracts generally), and do it on the theory that they’ll make more money because it will create some better matchups… even though ESPN is currently refusing to pay the SEC for more better matchups with a 9th conference game without ANY of the lawsuits, GOR issues, or elimination of a cheap existing contract.

Plus, if ESPN isn’t paying the SEC for a 9th conference game, are they actually increasing the number of top matchups if they add FSU? By definition, the SEC setup now only allows for one protected rival. ESPN gets both UGA-UF and FSU-UF annually. One of those actually goes *away* if FSU joins the SEC without an expansion of conference games. FSU-Clemson and FSU-Miami are also annual games now - they can’t continue as annual games under the current SEC framework even if they *all* join the SEC. ESPN would be losing a bunch of guaranteed annual high profile rivalry games in exchange for some infrequent FSU vs. Texas/Oklahoma/Alabama matchups.

Now, maybe the SEC bites the bullet and just adds that 9th conference game without procuring additional money from ESPN. However, nothing that the SEC has done has shown that they will act unless it’s straight up adding revenue to the existing members. This is the disconnect here because, as shown by everything Disney has done over the past several months, they’re straight out tapped out of money. Cost containment at ESPN is the only way to stem their irreversibly declining profits there, so that’s why they won’t even pay the SEC for an extra conference game that would unilaterally create a whole bunch of more high profile games. ESPN doesn’t care anymore - they’re good with what they have and are simply looking to make any of the economics work when they go to an over-the-top service.