So they're joining the WCC next year. What are they going to do with football? I assume they'll pursue independence for a season or 2 and then try to rebuild the PAC.

(12-28-2023 11:01 AM)b2b Wrote:  So they're joining the WCC next year. What are they going to do with football? I assume they'll pursue independence for a season or 2 and then try to rebuild the PAC.

Already covered on here. Look for the thread about FB --> MW.

Also, WCC deal is only for two years.

(12-28-2023 11:25 AM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(12-28-2023 11:01 AM)b2b Wrote:  So they're joining the WCC next year. What are they going to do with football? I assume they'll pursue independence for a season or 2 and then try to rebuild the PAC.

Already covered on here. Look for the thread about FB --> MW.

Also, WCC deal is only for two years.

Thanks, I've missed that one.

(12-28-2023 11:29 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(12-28-2023 11:25 AM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(12-28-2023 11:01 AM)b2b Wrote:  So they're joining the WCC next year. What are they going to do with football? I assume they'll pursue independence for a season or 2 and then try to rebuild the PAC.

Already covered on here. Look for the thread about FB --> MW.

Also, WCC deal is only for two years.

Thanks, I've missed that one.

Direct link:

https://csnbbs.com/thread-983554.html

For continuity I suggest we all continue posting on this topic over there.

What they are going to do is try to convince the cream of the crop in the Mountain West to join them in rebuilding in the PAC. Dont know whether it will work or not but its either that or they just join the MWC which is what they dont want to happen. They are gonna fight tooth and nail to keep that PAC brand alive but they are vastly outnumbered and arent in a stable position unlike the MWC who can just say "come join us."

(12-28-2023 02:42 PM)darkdragon99 Wrote:  What they are going to do is try to convince the cream of the crop in the Mountain West to join them in rebuilding in the PAC. Dont know whether it will work or not but its either that or they just join the MWC which is what they dont want to happen. They are gonna fight tooth and nail to keep that PAC brand alive but they are vastly outnumbered and arent in a stable position unlike the MWC who can just say "come join us."

It is not going to work. MWC have the upper hand.

The immediate situation is as follows:

2024-25 & 2025-26 all Pac-12 sports operations suspended and nearly the entire staff laid off this spring (many if not most already have notices).
-- Small bookkeeping crew likely kept for NCAA distributions, reports, filings etc. and for handling taxes, and legal matters
-- Whatever common assets (those not in the hands of specific schools) of the Pac-12 Networks and physical sites will be disposed off
Oregon State and Washington State Football will play 2024 and 2025 as Independents, with a 6-game each scheduling alliance with the MWC
-- scheduling alliance includes $14M payment by the two schools to the MWC (not clear if $14M per year or total)
-- deal includes an anti-poaching clause (unspecified amount, "hefty amount," time length unknown) should OSU/WSU invite any MWC schools to the Pac-12
Oregon State and Washinton State Olympic Sports (most of them) will join the WCC as associate members contracted for 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons
-- includes: Men's and Women's Basketball, Soccer (Men's WSU only), Golf, Cross Country (Men's WSU only), Women's Tennis (WSU only), Softball (OSU only), Rowing (Men's for OSU only)
-- Oregon State Baseball plans to play Independent. Washington State Baseball is looking for a conference (maybe WAC?)
-- WCC doesn't host a Track & Field or Swimming & Diving meet (despite most schools having both)
** speculation: I expect WSU will have indoor track & field, plus women's swimming & diving compete in the MPSF meet (Big Sky & WAC also possible options)
-- Oregon State women's gymnastics needs a meet (MPSF?)
-- Oregon State, along with Cal Poly and CSU Bakersfield are all homeless in wrestling
** speculation: possibly the MPSF could form a western group, likely pulling Cal Baptist from the Big 12

The two schools may or may not partner on a regional TV deal on one of the independent groups (the CW, Sinclair, Scripts), kind of like UConn has in the Northeast (reportedly $500K or so). They might do a bit better than UConn on the market since they have a lot of the equipment already. We shall see what happens on this front.

Longer term it's kind of murky. Each school is plotting their path, none is truly tied to each other. The interests of Oregon State and Washington State coincide at the moment, but there are a lot of indicators that they are not on the same trajectories. Neither will wait for the other if they get an opportunity. Oregon State appears to have many more options. Oregon State is also doing much better in the transfer portal wars (almost even gains to losses) than Washington State (basically a mini exodus with only one return from an FCS school). Although the Pac-12 money should allow each school to maintain their current spending levels for three to five years, Oregon State appears to be on much better ground financially.

Middle term, these schools may renew their association with the WCC for another set of years, while going football independent. But this path seems more difficult for Washington State due to structural financial and geographic issues (much harder for them to get meaningful home and road game sets with P4 schools). We are seeing this difference play out in Baseball where the Beavers are getting good response from schools willing to schedule them, especially former Pac-12 mates (mentioned in their efforts are Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, UCLA) which apparently doesn't apply to the Cougars more remote travel location. The same is true in the MWC for San Diego State who is looking for an exit. I don't see the schedule alliance continuing past the 2025 season. Each school will either decide to carry on as an independent or join the MWC. We could see the schools split at that point, as almost all the Pac-12 money will have been extracted at that point greatly reducing the need to remain tethered.

Anyway, the mid and long term are purely my projections of trends and understandings of the agreements. My general take is Oregon State can wait out the entire 6-year media cycle and even longer to see if they get a break, but Washington State doesn't have that same ability nor desirability from the perspective of suitors.


Longer term there is some significant divergence between Oregon State and Washington State.

the ACC instability gives them an option to see wait what happens with Stanford, Cal, etc

(12-28-2023 04:53 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(12-28-2023 02:42 PM)darkdragon99 Wrote:  What they are going to do is try to convince the cream of the crop in the Mountain West to join them in rebuilding in the PAC. Dont know whether it will work or not but its either that or they just join the MWC which is what they dont want to happen. They are gonna fight tooth and nail to keep that PAC brand alive but they are vastly outnumbered and arent in a stable position unlike the MWC who can just say "come join us."

It is not going to work. MWC have the upper hand.

I know but I think the Pac 2 are arrogant enough to think them owning the PAC name trumps the MWC brand and is more valuable and advantageous for them to join up.

(12-28-2023 05:40 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The immediate situation is as follows:

2024-25 & 2025-26 all Pac-12 sports operations suspended and nearly the entire staff laid off this spring (many if not most already have notices).
-- Small bookkeeping crew likely kept for NCAA distributions, reports, filings etc. and for handling taxes, and legal matters
-- Whatever common assets (those not in the hands of specific schools) of the Pac-12 Networks and physical sites will be disposed off
Oregon State and Washington State Football will play 2024 and 2025 as Independents, with a 6-game each scheduling alliance with the MWC
-- scheduling alliance includes $14M payment by the two schools to the MWC (no clear if $14M per year or total)
-- deal includes an anti-poaching clause (unspecified amount, "hefty amount," time length unknown) should OSU/WSU invite any MWC schools to the Pac-12
Oregon State and Washinton State Olympic Sports (most of them) will join the WCC as associate members contracted for 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons
-- includes: Men's and Women's Basketball, Soccer (Men's WSU only), Golf, Cross Country (Men's WSU only), Women's Tennis (WSU only), Softball (OSU only), Rowing (Men's for OSU only)
-- Oregon State Baseball plans to play Independent. Washington State Baseball is looking for a conference (maybe WAC?)
-- WCC doesn't host a Track & Field or Swimming & Diving meet (despite most schools having both)
** speculation: I expect WSU will have indoor track & field, plus women's swimming & diving compete in the MPSF meet (Big Sky & WAC also possible options)
-- Oregon State women's gymnastics needs a meet (MPSF?)
-- Oregon State, along with Boise State, Cal Poly an CSU Bakersfield are all homeless in wrestling
** speculation: Pac-12 label or possibly MPSF could form a western group, likely pulling Cal Baptist Big 12

The two schools may or may not partner on a regional TV deal on one of the independent groups (the CW, Sinclair, Scripts), kind of like UConn has in the Northeast (reportedly $500K or so). They might do a bit better than UConn on the market since they have a lot of the equipment already. We shall see what happens on this front.

Longer term it's kind of murky. Each school is plotting their path, none is truly tied to each other. The interests of Oregon State and Washington State coincide at the moment, but there are a lot of indicators that they are not on the same trajectories. Neither will wait for the other if they get an opportunity. Oregon State appears to have many more options. Oregon State is also doing much better in the transfer portal wars (almost even gains to losses) than Washington State (basically a mini exodus with only one return from an FCS school). Although the Pac-12 money should allow each school to maintain their current spending levels for three to five years, Oregon State appears to be on much better ground financially.

Middle term, these schools may renew their association with the WCC for another set of years, while going football independent. But this path seems more difficult for Washington State due to structural financial and geographic issues (much harder for them to get meaningful home and road game sets with P4 schools). We are seeing this difference play out in Baseball where the Beavers are getting good response from schools willing to schedule them, especially former Pac-12 mates (mentioned in their efforts are Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, UCLA) which apparently doesn't apply to the Cougars more remote travel location. The same is true in the MWC for San Diego State who is looking for an exit. I don't see the schedule alliance continuing past the 2025 season. Each school will either decide to carry on as an independent or join the MWC. We could see the schools split at that point, as almost all the Pac-12 money will have been extracted at that point greatly reducing the need to remain tethered.

Anyway, the mid and long term are purely my projections of trends and understandings of the agreements. My general take is Oregon State can wait out the entire 6-year media cycle and even longer to see if they get a break, but Washington State doesn't have that same ability nor desirability from the perspective of suitors.


Longer term there is some significant divergence between Oregon State and Washington State.

Boise State dropped their wrestling program for baseball, but they dropped baseball because of covid, and have not replaced baseball yet.

Forgot about BSU dropping wrestling. Kustra's parting gift was stupid.

Very nice summery above.

Any word yet on OSU and WSU football TV rights for 2024 and 2025? Do you think they could get a $6M deal from ESPN?

(12-29-2023 03:58 AM)goofus Wrote:  Very nice summery above.

Any word yet on OSU and WSU football TV rights for 2024 and 2025? Do you think they could get a $6M deal from ESPN?

No word yet. Nobody sees ESPN involved. At the start of December Pat Chun (WSU AD) said they will work with Oregon State through the conference office to identify options (i.e., get contact info to reach out). Bob Thompson made a comment about their options, laying out the most likely (note the M's are the Seattle Mariners baseball team.)

Note: a regional type deal means OSU/WSU would almost certainly be providing the broadcast and camera crews.

It would be nice if Apple/Youtube/Sling/or ... TV stepped in, for a couple of years with national coverage, for the Pac-2's home games (many sports?). Lots of good vibes to be earned, not only for the folk in WA and OR, but also in the conferences thinking ahead toward their next media contracts.

P.S. If not already producing/broadcasting live sports programming, it would also be good practice for such companies.

I struggle seeing an outright joining of the Mountain West based on how things have gone. Oregon State and Washinton State played a lot for effectively 3 home and homes with the Mountain West. If the deal was structured so they effectively they had to merge, I do not thank there would have been any cost at all. Beyond that, I would have seen them working with the Mountain West on other sports.

Are we sure there is a penalty for inviting some but not all Mountain West members? I saw that listed on early talks, but never in the final deal articles and figured the payout was in place of it.

Edit: My money is still on a rebuild of the PAC (likely smaller) without all Mountain West members.

(12-28-2023 05:40 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  ...
-- scheduling alliance includes $14M payment by the two schools to the MWC (not clear if $14M per year or total)

The Sports Journal reporting of the $14m payment explicitly stated that the initial deal was for one year only, so we could infer that this is $14m/yr.

(12-28-2023 05:40 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  ...
-- deal includes an anti-poaching clause (unspecified amount, "hefty amount," time length unknown) should OSU/WSU invite any MWC schools to the Pac-12

This seems to come from early reporting before the deal was finalized, by Ross Dellenger:

Quote: The agreement, expected to include a lucrative financial package for Mountain West members, is likely to feature a long-term commitment to the conference with an intent at a full merger beyond this two-year cycle. Part of the agreement includes a financial penalty that can be levied upon Oregon State and Washington State if the two programs attempt to acquire only a portion of MWC schools in the future.

Neither the long term commitment nor the the anti-poaching clause, features in any of the reporting of the finalized agreement. Rather, the agreement is announced as initially for one year only.

(12-29-2023 12:48 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(12-28-2023 05:40 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  ...
-- scheduling alliance includes $14M payment by the two schools to the MWC (not clear if $14M per year or total)

The Sports Journal reporting of the $14m payment explicitly stated that the initial deal was for one year only, so we could infer that this is $14m/yr.

(12-28-2023 05:40 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  ...
-- deal includes an anti-poaching clause (unspecified amount, "hefty amount," time length unknown) should OSU/WSU invite any MWC schools to the Pac-12

This seems to come from early reporting before the deal was finalized, by Ross Dellenger:

Quote: The agreement, expected to include a lucrative financial package for Mountain West members, is likely to feature a long-term commitment to the conference with an intent at a full merger beyond this two-year cycle. Part of the agreement includes a financial penalty that can be levied upon Oregon State and Washington State if the two programs attempt to acquire only a portion of MWC schools in the future.

Neither the long term commitment nor the the anti-poaching clause, features in any of the reporting of the finalized agreement. Rather, the agreement is announced as initially for one year only.

I'd bet a donut that neither clause made it into the final agreement. If it had then someone from the MWC side would have either announced it or leaked it by now.

tldr:Kicked the can down the road a couple years until they figure something out. Will hang out in the WCC until then. Football is independent.

I still think it makes no sense to do anything but merge with the MWC.

It's just a numbers game with exit fees and TV dollars (and NCAA revenues)


- The Pac-12 needs 8+ members to join in a rebuild that would make them feel "safe."

Assume for a second that no one from the AAC, SBC or Sun Belt would join the Pac-12 because there's no TV deal yet without knowing who's in the conference.... So the Pac-12 invites exactly eight MWC members:

If you invite more than 5.5 of the 11.5 MWC members, the MWC is gonna say "You deliberately tried to destroy our conference" and litigation ensues and that's gonna cost you legal fees minimum. Especially if the MWC TV partners turn around and sign the Pac-12 to take the MWC's place.

And the MWC will try to rebuild their conference, with the exit fees the departing schools pay: $17m each ($136m total to four schools).

IF the new Pac-12 can get a six-year TV deal, it would need to be worth $7.5m per school just for the 8 departing MWC schools to cover the exit fees. They are making money until the SECOND TV deal.


How is it not easier to just structure the merger where WSU/OSU get 10% each, and the remaining 80% is split among the legacy MWC members? It's the same thing media money wise as ditching the bottom four of the MWC, BUT...

- you don't leave MWC left behinds $136m exit fees to rebuild with
- you don't leave MWC left behinds all the NCAA Tournament revenue the MWC members earned
- you don't have competition for "the best West Coast conference" with the MWC because you merged.
- you don't hamstring your new 8 members with a -$17m budget deficit when they start (those things put together is why you ARE at risk of being usurped by the MWC if you just raid them, a la C-USA vs Sun Belt).
- you have duplicate assets to sell off, like your inefficient Pac-12 office; just use the MWC office.


What am I missing here that makes WSU/OSU think they're better off rebuilding the Pac-12 as direct competitors with the MWC?

I do not think the merger agreement exists in the final deal either. The original MWC deal being negotiated was all sports, not just football. But that deal is dead, instead they took a much more flexible deal with the WCC that allows them to walk away after two years. The anti-poaching penalty as I understand it was tied directly to the football scheduling, not the merger. I will do some checking around to see if that is or is not part of the package.

Frankly I don't think there is any chance in hell the Pac-12 will be reconstituted. Oregon State has indicated a plan to be an independent beyond the 2-year football scheduling agreement. They are not planning to settle for a G5+ conference but membership in a P4 conference. All indications are the Beavers plan a medium-term if not longer play similar to UConn, hoping to eventually land back in the autonomous group.

The Pac-12 will have been shelved for two years come 2026, nothing but an accounting, bill paying and check clearing center for CFP and NCAA credits. The autonomous status will be expired, so nothing there. The real properties and assets will have been sold off (or subleased when possible until the lease terms run out) and the proceeds collected by WSU and OSU athletics. No doubt some Pac-12 Network equipment deemed useful for OSU/WSU athletics will be taken by those schools for their own event production, but the rest will be sold off. The only asset of any value left come 2026 will be the branding rights, but without any autonomous standing (will expire in 2026, new CFP contract won't include Pac-12 as one of the P4). There really is only one potential buyer, the MWC, but unless Oregon State or Washington State join, it doesn't seem to make any sense to purchase the brand.

The whole reverse merger scheme makes little sense, with or without any poaching penalty. If you are bringing every MWC school along, the only purpose would seem to be to get out of the contract with CBS and FOX that expires in 2026 anyway, or to get rid of Gloria Nevarez in favor Kirk Schulz and whomever he appoints. It could only make sense if you are planning to ditch schools to up your potential per school value. But if you leave anyone behind, as the Pac-12 schools just showed, you are going to have to pay the hefty exit fees and surrender all your NCAA credits. In the case of the MWC you are looking at over $17M per school (one plus year notice) or up to $32M per school (less time notice). This requires a really big media provider to back the cause. Nobody is going to jump unless they have a media provider ready to replace CBS and FOX at a much higher price.

A long winded way of saying, whether or not a poaching penalty is in the contract, its probably immaterial. The Pac-12 is not being rebuilt, any merger will be WSU and possibly OSU joining the MWC and bringing the Pac-12 branding rights to the conference.