My assumptions:

1. Notre Dame wants to and probably will remain independent.
2. UNC and UVA have a standing offer from the B1G regardless of what happens, so I will eliminate them from all analysis.
3. Florida State wouldn't be going though challenging the Grant of Rights if they didn't think the SEC or B1G had an offer for them.
4. Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Clemson are more valuable to the B1G than the SEC because the SEC already has a dominant presence in the states of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.
5. The B1G has no further interest in Western Schools at this time.

My starting points:

1. The B1G has already vetted 10 schools: Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Georgia Tech, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Utah and Miami.

https://www.si.com/college/ohiostate/new...ssovlement

2. Florida State and Clemson have been rumored so much that it would be irresponsible to not include then in an updated list.


Let's take it for granted that Florida State is going to get an offer and UNC and UVA have a standing offer. There are 4 schools competing for slot 20. Who should get that slot? The competition is Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Duke.

The first team that is easily crossed off of the list is Duke. I think Duke comes if and only if they are added with UNC and UVA. Duke is a fine school in everything but football. They are getting better but don't move the needle in the most important college sport. Both the SEC and B1G want UNC and UVA and they could use that leverage to muscle in Duke. But Duke on its own football merit seems bound to stay in a rearranged ACC.

The next school I think is crossed off of the lost is Clemson. Clemson is a GREAT football school but they are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Culturally Clemson feels like an SEC school but I don't think the SEC wants them. Notably missing from the original 10 schools was Clemson so I'm not sure the B1G fancies Clemson even though they are proven winners in the past decade and change.

That leaves us with Miami and Georgia Tech.
1. Both amazing cities with dynamic economies.
2. Both cities contain TONS of B1G alumni.
3. Easy travel from anywhere in the country.

If the B1G wanted to go to 21 these two (along with Florida State) would be my guess as to who would be selected. But that being said.

The next school that gets crossed off would be Miami. Miami has great history from 1979 to 2002 but have been a mediocre program outside of that window. Their administration seems to not support the U at a level that it would take to be consistently excellent. And since the Orange Bowl has been ripped down, a lot of the mystique has dissipated surrounding the U. I call it the Curse of the Orange Bowl but they have to do something to get an on campus stadium. Yes the U is a private school and all but 2 of the B1G are large publics but I don't think that would matter if the administration started giving more effs and they built an on-campus stadium.

Last man standing is Georgia Tech. Let's not forget that back when the B1G added Maryland and Rutgers, they were also after UNC, UVA, and Georgia Tech. https://m.startribune.com/christensen-a-...192067661/

GT has a fantastic location, great academics, excellent talent to recruit locally. The B1G/BTN could get into both Florida and Georgia with the additions of FSU and GT. The game has changed recently and tv views are more important than market size, but the BTN gets an elevated rate for the markets they are directly in, so that revenue stream could still play a factor in the decision.

So how many schools does the B1G want to go to? I personally think that if the SEC offers UNC and UVA they are going there with or without Duke. If the academics sway the decision maybe the B1G has a chance but... well we'll see.

The order of addition imo would be:
19. Florida State
20. Georgia Tech
21. Miami
To me these decisions are clear. If they go to 24, the next natural stopping spot then obviously there are two scenarios and as you can plainly see MUST include UNC and UVA.

Scenario #1. UNC and UVA convince the B1G into taking Duke.
Scenario #2 the B1G, UNC, UVA, FSU, GT, and Miami agree that Clemson, with its superior football program, is a better fit for the southern wing of the new B1G.

It's been a while since I've last post, I apologize, but tell me what you all think?

The first bullet point has a big hole in it with the SI link.

Today’s SI is not credible (they have articles citing Greg Swaim), and the source cited in that article is Jim Williams. Williams has not shown credibility and his tweets are never verified by the actual insiders (McMurphy, Dellenger, Thamel).

(12-30-2023 02:42 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  The first bullet point has a big hole in it with the SI link.

Today’s SI is not credible (they have articles citing Greg Swaim), and the source cited in that article is Jim Williams. Williams has not shown credibility and his tweets are never verified by the actual insiders (McMurphy, Dellenger, Thamel).

There were other outlets saying the same thing and the list seemed reasonable to me. I viewed it as starting point of schools to consider

(12-30-2023 03:11 AM)Big Ron Buckeye Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 02:42 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  The first bullet point has a big hole in it with the SI link.

Today’s SI is not credible (they have articles citing Greg Swaim), and the source cited in that article is Jim Williams. Williams has not shown credibility and his tweets are never verified by the actual insiders (McMurphy, Dellenger, Thamel).

There were other outlets saying the same thing and the list seemed reasonable to me. I viewed it as starting point of schools to consider

Debating the merits of Florida State, Miami and Georgia Tech are fair game. But, just because UNC and UVa have a standing offer from the Big 10, as by the way in the past so has Vanderbilt, doesn't mean they will act upon them. UNC has one from the SEC and with a partner. In 2011 that partner was Duke. That may have changed. But that doesn't mean they are going to the SEC either.

I'm astonished that it isn't sinking in that Stanford and Cal fit very well with Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, and Miami, a group which Boston College, Syracuse, and Wake Forest feel at home with as well. And that's not to mention how well their vision of athletics and academics fit with Notre Dame. S.M.U. is a bit novel, but then so too is Louisville.

Florida State on the other hand loves diamond sports and their fans support those religiously. I can understand their frustration with ESPN, but they aren't going to commit consumer base suicide unless the SEC doesn't ever offer them. They also want to keep their association with Clemson. Somehow neither of those fits to well with the Big 10 profile. There is much fan fiction going on with both the SEC and Big 10 fan bases.

Your Minnesota YouTube mouthpiece spoke the truth when he said the cause of this was the court cases and the heavy overhead they were adding to funding the upper tier sports. Travel is a good deal of that overhead, especially for non-revenue sports. That little facet tells me that transcontinental conferences will have a lot more overhead going forward. Clusters of 5 or 6 schools in a region will be needed.

The SEC wants to stay regional for that reason. They stand at 16 and have 4 slots to 20 and 8 slots to 24. Most games at SEC venues are closer for ACC schools, especially the Southern ones than they are Big 10 schools. I'd say Virginia was a wash if the SEC were adding a group of 6 or more from the ACC. Baseball and Softball are epically strong in the SEC. Fans are the customer base and donors are locally oriented as well. Presidents didn't decide the issues at Texas and Oklahoma. Fans and Donors did because no product alienates its customer base. Customers don't like to fly to football games. They prefer to drive. They certainly don't fly to basketball games or baseball games or softball games or non-revenue sports and if their child is playing that gets expensive and old quickly.

Frankly, I don't take FSU to the Big 10 seriously, and for all of those reasons and more.

ESPN can't take sides between the ACC and SEC. But if the ACC is cracked, or about to be they can certainly express a preference to keep their product and make the transition easier on them. Clemson and Florida State fit the SEC. They don't fit the Big 10. Tallahassee isn't easy for Big 10 teams to get to; it is surrounded by SEC and ACC fans with few Big 10 alums in a region where there are few Big 10 alums. Miami is plausible, and other than being private fits the Big 10. I can believe Miami. Georgia Tech is in a massive city in which they carry about 48% of the viewership for college sports. Georgia carries about 50% of it and the rest is divided between Clemson, Tennessee, Auburn, and Alabama. But Since Georgia carries 85% of the rest of the state the SEC's interest in Georgia Tech, a former member who chose to leave, may not be strong. I can see Tech being interested in a Big 10 invite and they would be like adding another Purdue. Virginia could be a tossup especially if UNC opts for an in-state travel partner to the SEC. But that only happens if the ACC is imploding. Otherwise, their inclination will be to stick it out in the ACC.

I've witnessed this all before, and twice. In 2011 and now. Every Big 10 fan is so sold on the Academic superiority of the Big 10 that they are absolutely convinced that any AAU school anywhere else pines to be among them. Yet the ACC's aggregate academic rating is higher than that of the Big 10 and would certainly be amplified by Stanford and California. You landed Rutgers and Maryland for markets. The SEC landed Texas A&M and Missouri. The SEC landed Texas and Oklahoma worth 2.3 billion in their ability to impact commerce in their regions, your landed 890 million dollars' worth of impact with the 2 Los Angeles based schools and added another 900 million with Oregon and Washington. Until those deals were announced the Big 10 pundits where wholly convinced that Texas would choose the PAC 12 or Big 10 over any conference, especially the SEC. But consumer base and business models trumped academics. Why? Texas is strong enough to stand on its own academically as are any AAU schools. And now that the courts are making sports professional in nature the divide between athletics and academics is vastly greater than the amateur mode championed by the NCAA and Big 10.

I believe the ACC will stick together eventually losing Florida State, Clemson, and possibly Miami. I don't think any of the rest of them are going anywhere. I think they'll focus on non-revenue sports and hoops and be happy to play baseball and softball. I think Notre Dame will wangle deals with both the SEC, Big 10 and ACC and that they'll keep hockey in the Big 10.

I believe that the SEC could move to 18 with Clemson and Florida State and that beyond that Kansas might hold some interest. Especially if Vanderbilt opted for the new ACC format.

And I see no reason for the SEC or Big 10 to move to 24 unless networks just want the added inventory carrying those brands.

The Big 10 could move to 20 with Miami and Georgia Tech and pick up two great cities but the money is not there.

My point is don't bank on UVa and UNC, particularly UNC. And there are more standing offers out there than yours.

The Big 10 was going to be a compelling destination for Notre Dame, but it didn't happen. For Texas, and it didn't happen, and UNC will be the same. Now Notre Dame is not in the SEC and UNC may never be either, but that doesn't mean they are headed to the Big 10. And we both know that there's not a damn thing the Big 10 can do to land FSU AAU status. You can tell them what they need to do but unless the metrics spit their name out for consideration and a vote there is no guarantee they make it, certainly not within the next 10 years.

Occam's razor says the simplest moves. Well, if FSU really wants out the simplest move is to the SEC, ESPN or not. Clemson has been a charter member of the ACC. I'm not convinced they would leave if they had the chance. If Vanderbilt stays Kansas could pair up with FSU. If Vanderbilt prefers the vision of the ACC in comes FSU and the SEC remains at 16 with more games in Florida, which is a priority.

Now as much as this board loves its theories, and did in 2011, something along the lines of what I laid out above is what is most likely to happen. If it doesn't it will be because the networks wanted more schools branded Big 10 or SEC.

Any of the Magnificent 7 schools will leave the ACC in a heartbeat if it gets a call-up and sees the door ajar. It's fair to say, based on evidence, that Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina show the most eagerness, with Miami also in that picture

I expect the first wave to consist of 2-4 schools, followed by a second wave—later, after exit prices have a chance to drop—consisting of at least 4 more.

The first wave is well defined. Georgia Tech, if the call arrives, is more likely a second-wave team.

Who exactly goes to which P2 league is less settled. This will depend on the backstage analyzing and strategizing of conferences with networks. We can stand outside and try to guess, but we're not privy to those discussions. We'll see.

If Florida State gets out of the ACC and the B1G invites them, as I expect they would, then the flood gates might open, a few other top properties in the ACC will venture out. Georgia Tech will be far down the list of any interest from the SEC/ESPN or B1G/FOX. The two big entities will cherry pick, but only as many as their network provider agrees to pay, which likely isn't more than two in either conference.

I would not mind if the BigTen took UVA, UNC and Duke and stopped. Those 3 led the ACC into the second tier status that it is today. Perhaps the rest of the conference can circle the wagons or regroup into another conference leaving the few other remaining dingle berries behind.

(12-30-2023 05:27 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  Any of the Magnificent 7 schools will leave the ACC in a heartbeat if it gets a call-up and sees the door ajar. It's fair to say, based on evidence, that Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina show the most eagerness, with Miami also in that picture

I expect the first wave to consist of 2-4 schools, followed by a second wave—later, after exit prices have a chance to drop—consisting of at least 4 more.

The first wave is well defined. Georgia Tech, if the call arrives, is more likely a second-wave team.

Who exactly goes to which P2 league is less settled. This will depend on the backstage analyzing and strategizing of conferences with networks. We can stand outside and try to guess, but we're not privy to those discussions. We'll see.

This is slightly outdated, but still useful and relevant to your point.

This was who McMurphy at the time reported as schools who add value. We just seen Oregon and Washington take less than half to join the B1G while Cal and Stanford took paycuts just to join the ACC. There aren't many teams that add value right now to the B1G/SEC after the PAC4 & OUT additions and agree there'll probably be 2-4 additions, maybe 5 or 6 IF ND chooses to move, but that's pushing it.

(12-30-2023 05:27 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  Any of the Magnificent 7 schools will leave the ACC in a heartbeat if it gets a call-up and sees the door ajar. It's fair to say, based on evidence, that Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina show the most eagerness, with Miami also in that picture

I expect the first wave to consist of 2-4 schools, followed by a second wave—later, after exit prices have a chance to drop—consisting of at least 4 more.

The first wave is well defined. Georgia Tech, if the call arrives, is more likely a second-wave team.

Who exactly goes to which P2 league is less settled. This will depend on the backstage analyzing and strategizing of conferences with networks. We can stand outside and try to guess, but we're not privy to those discussions. We'll see.

People act like there are endless TV windows for conferences. Nobody is bumping Michigan or Bama games for Georgia Tech and I dare say Carolina. Sorry, the math doesn’t work. The Big Ten and SEC are pretty damn full at this point. Florida State makes sense. Notre Dame makes sense. Clemson makes some sense for the SEC. Beyond that, I have strong doubts.

(12-30-2023 10:19 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 05:27 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  Any of the Magnificent 7 schools will leave the ACC in a heartbeat if it gets a call-up and sees the door ajar. It's fair to say, based on evidence, that Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina show the most eagerness, with Miami also in that picture

I expect the first wave to consist of 2-4 schools, followed by a second wave—later, after exit prices have a chance to drop—consisting of at least 4 more.

The first wave is well defined. Georgia Tech, if the call arrives, is more likely a second-wave team.

Who exactly goes to which P2 league is less settled. This will depend on the backstage analyzing and strategizing of conferences with networks. We can stand outside and try to guess, but we're not privy to those discussions. We'll see.

This is slightly outdated, but still useful and relevant to your point.

This was who McMurphy at the time reported as schools who add value. We just seen Oregon and Washington take less than half to join the B1G while Cal and Stanford took paycuts just to join the ACC. There aren't many teams that add value right now to the B1G/SEC after the PAC4 & OUT additions and agree there'll probably be 2-4 additions, maybe 5 or 6 IF ND chooses to move, but that's pushing it.

Yeah they could add value independently, but not all together. Diminishing returns and limited TV windows are a thing, people

(12-30-2023 08:17 AM)Garrettabc Wrote:  I would not mind if the BigTen took UVA, UNC and Duke and stopped. Those 3 led the ACC into the second tier status that it is today. Perhaps the rest of the conference can circle the wagons or regroup into another conference leaving the few other remaining dingle berries behind.

Ignorant post

I know Oregon State and Washington State own the shell that is the Pacific Coast Conference (let’s just go back to PCC or Pacific Conference and get the # out of the name). We keep hearing they could form a “best of the rest” type conference from MWC and AAC, but I had another thought. Apparently contracts and grants of rights don’t mean anything, so despite OSU/WSU not being “desired” could they use this shell to form a best of the rest from the ACC and Big 12 instead? They could build a clear cut #3 league this way. The Pacific Conference only having two members is desirable in this scenario because a new conference of the absolute best programs remaining could truly be formed (and it’s a bit of poetic justice that OSU/WSU would be in the club). Am I crazy to have this thought?

(12-30-2023 10:37 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 08:17 AM)Garrettabc Wrote:  I would not mind if the BigTen took UVA, UNC and Duke and stopped. Those 3 led the ACC into the second tier status that it is today. Perhaps the rest of the conference can circle the wagons or regroup into another conference leaving the few other remaining dingle berries behind.

Ignorant post

The football wasn’t bulked up enough. They should have added TCU (before they accepted the Big East) and WVU a long time ago and been at 16. SMU doesn’t give them the pipeline into Texas. These schools were there for the taking and they didn’t pull the trigger. That’s either ignorance or lack of foresight at best. Schools like Houston and UC would have never considered the Big 12, and certainly not the four corners.

(12-30-2023 10:39 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  I know Oregon State and Washington State own the shell that is the Pacific Coast Conference (let’s just go back to PCC or Pacific Conference and get the # out of the name). We keep hearing they could form a “best of the rest” type conference from MWC and AAC, but I had another thought. Apparently contracts and grants of rights don’t mean anything, so despite OSU/WSU not being “desired” could they use this shell to form a best of the rest from the ACC and Big 12 instead? They could build a clear cut #3 league this way. The Pacific Conference only having two members is desirable in this scenario because a new conference of the absolute best programs remaining could truly be formed (and it’s a bit of poetic justice that OSU/WSU would be in the club). Am I crazy to have this thought?

I don't think there is any way those two can get the upper hand on the B12 or ACC let alone both. If the B12 and ACC get raided so badly for that too happen, they may as well join the MWC and AAC.

(12-30-2023 10:37 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 08:17 AM)Garrettabc Wrote:  I would not mind if the BigTen took UVA, UNC and Duke and stopped. Those 3 led the ACC into the second tier status that it is today. Perhaps the rest of the conference can circle the wagons or regroup into another conference leaving the few other remaining dingle berries behind.

Ignorant post

Was not FSU that ran off UofSC.

B-10 takes 6 ACC schools, that helps B-12
cuts off 4C schools from B-10, they will have no intrest in ACC

B-12 could take the kill shot now, [Conn, USF, OSU, WSU]

(12-30-2023 10:34 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 05:27 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  Any of the Magnificent 7 schools will leave the ACC in a heartbeat if it gets a call-up and sees the door ajar. It's fair to say, based on evidence, that Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina show the most eagerness, with Miami also in that picture

I expect the first wave to consist of 2-4 schools, followed by a second wave—later, after exit prices have a chance to drop—consisting of at least 4 more.

The first wave is well defined. Georgia Tech, if the call arrives, is more likely a second-wave team.

Who exactly goes to which P2 league is less settled. This will depend on the backstage analyzing and strategizing of conferences with networks. We can stand outside and try to guess, but we're not privy to those discussions. We'll see.

People act like there are endless TV windows for conferences. Nobody is bumping Michigan or Bama games for Georgia Tech and I dare say Carolina. Sorry, the math doesn’t work. The Big Ten and SEC are pretty damn full at this point. Florida State makes sense. Notre Dame makes sense. Clemson makes some sense for the SEC. Beyond that, I have strong doubts.

You miss the point. ABC can air up to 3 SEC games at their discretion. ESPN can do the same. ESPN2 can do the same as well as ESPNU and the SECN carries 2 a week. Do the math on the potential. That's 18 slots a weekend just for Disney. 36 schools would be involved. Let's say 3 from the Big 12 for late night windows, since FOX will air them on FS1 and FOX54. CBS has the Big 10 2:30, NBC has some plus Notre Dame. ESPN will gladly air the late games. Each week the ACCN will air a pair of ACC games which don't impact the SEC. Take 3 top ACC games for time slots spread across the networks and the demand for the SEC games is down to 12. It takes 24 schools to fill out the need for 12. Subtract the byes and add the OOC games which are home games, and 12 slots wouldn't have enough inventory. Remember heading into the future the games which can't pull 3 million viewers will likely be streamed. FOX, FS1/CBS/NBC/BTN face similar demands. It is quite possible that expanding with better brands, few though they may be fills the need and the Big 12 inventory is split between FOX and ESPN. More consolidation is likely and if it is network driven it will be either made with unequal shares as FOX has done or pro rata as ESPN is set up to do with the SEC. Time slots are 11, 2:30 to 3, 6 and 9 or thereabouts depending upon the channel and network. The goal is 3 million or better in non prime slots and 5 million or better in prime with aspirations for 12 to 15 million for really big games. Only more consolidation gets them there.

(12-30-2023 10:34 AM)esayem Wrote:  People act like there are endless TV windows for conferences. Nobody is bumping Michigan or Bama games for Georgia Tech and I dare say Carolina. Sorry, the math doesn’t work. The Big Ten and SEC are pretty damn full at this point. Florida State makes sense. Notre Dame makes sense. Clemson makes some sense for the SEC. Beyond that, I have strong doubts.

From most of the things I've read, I have to agree with you. But 19 is an awkward number. 21 is more practical because it can be divided by 3.

Espn is hemorrhaging money so they are not bidding on anything. The question is how much or I should say how many schools Fox, CBS, and NBC are collectively willing to pay for.

I think the Big Ten would definitely opt for Florida State and Miami over Florida State and Georgia Tech.

Between the Big Ten and SEC, honestly it would come down prefence from FSU. If there is an overwelming prefence from fans, it will likely be enough to push the school that way (in the same way alumni pushed Texas A&M to the SEC even after the PAC-16 deal died and Big 12 seemed OK). If not, it will be down to the prefence of the president with influence from the board, AD, and most powerful boosters.

As far as AAU status, I no longer feel it is as necessary for thr Big Ten. Oregon was kind of a push, but it happened anyway. Florida State is a larger deal and would be taken.

Edit: All of that is only relevant if Florida State gets out of the grant of rights basically free (still exit fee). Without that, if leave in next few years, they might be leaving alone given amount to leave.

(12-30-2023 11:19 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 10:34 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 05:27 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  Any of the Magnificent 7 schools will leave the ACC in a heartbeat if it gets a call-up and sees the door ajar. It's fair to say, based on evidence, that Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina show the most eagerness, with Miami also in that picture

I expect the first wave to consist of 2-4 schools, followed by a second wave—later, after exit prices have a chance to drop—consisting of at least 4 more.

The first wave is well defined. Georgia Tech, if the call arrives, is more likely a second-wave team.

Who exactly goes to which P2 league is less settled. This will depend on the backstage analyzing and strategizing of conferences with networks. We can stand outside and try to guess, but we're not privy to those discussions. We'll see.

People act like there are endless TV windows for conferences. Nobody is bumping Michigan or Bama games for Georgia Tech and I dare say Carolina. Sorry, the math doesn’t work. The Big Ten and SEC are pretty damn full at this point. Florida State makes sense. Notre Dame makes sense. Clemson makes some sense for the SEC. Beyond that, I have strong doubts.

You miss the point. ABC can air up to 3 SEC games at their discretion. ESPN can do the same. ESPN2 can do the same as well as ESPNU and the SECN carries 2 a week. Do the math on the potential. That's 18 slots a weekend just for Disney. 36 schools would be involved. Let's say 3 from the Big 12 for late night windows, since FOX will air them on FS1 and FOX54. CBS has the Big 10 2:30, NBC has some plus Notre Dame. ESPN will gladly air the late games. Each week the ACCN will air a pair of ACC games which don't impact the SEC. Take 3 top ACC games for time slots spread across the networks and the demand for the SEC games is down to 12. It takes 24 schools to fill out the need for 12. Subtract the byes and add the OOC games which are home games, and 12 slots wouldn't have enough inventory. Remember heading into the future the games which can't pull 3 million viewers will likely be streamed. FOX, FS1/CBS/NBC/BTN face similar demands. It is quite possible that expanding with better brands, few though they may be fills the need and the Big 12 inventory is split between FOX and ESPN. More consolidation is likely and if it is network driven it will be either made with unequal shares as FOX has done or pro rata as ESPN is set up to do with the SEC. Time slots are 11, 2:30 to 3, 6 and 9 or thereabouts depending upon the channel and network. The goal is 3 million or better in non prime slots and 5 million or better in prime with aspirations for 12 to 15 million for really big games. Only more consolidation gets them there.

I think I’m making the point it doesn’t benefit ESPN (ABC) to pay six teams a ton of money and then air them head-to-head-to-head. That’s why having the lesser viewed teams making less makes sense.

If you want to argue the top 32 consolidate like the NFL that’s one thing that absolutely maximizes profit. But two 24-team NFL’s doesn’t make sense, never has, and there are plenty of examples of its failure. This is another reason the mythical “P3” is even more laughable.