I was just sitting around thinking about FSU, and it got me back to something that I've cogitated upon here and there over the past couple of years. We all know that there's a geographic component to the P2, and we all know that in a perfect world Sankey would love to drive an SEC flag into B1G country and Petitti would love to drive a B1G flag into SEC country. However, what about the member institutions?

The way I see it, there are only a few B1G schools that the SEC would even consider, and there are only a few SEC schools that the B1G would even consider. The problem with most of them is that very strong historical ties bind them to their current Conference, and nothing short of a 10 on the Richter scale would ever get them to seriously consider a move.

To wit:

B1G schools that the SEC would like but would not consider a move:
tOSU
Michigan

Those 2 are the big enchiladas, and peeling off either would signal a move to the P1. However, why would they leave? They get to dominate a true "Power" Conference in football right now, and they'd be unlikely to do so in the SEC. They also view the B1G (correctly in my view) as a conference that they had a whole lot to do with assembling. The only way they'd leave would be to help form a new P1, again joining on the ground floor and having a whole lot of input.

SEC schools that the B1G would like but would not consider a move:
Florida
Texas A&M
Georgia
Alabama

The first 2 are big Brands and AAU, and we have geography on our side, and the latter 2 leaving would start the B1G down the path to becoming the P1. However, everyone except A&M is a founding SEC member, and A&M would rather swap Reveille for Bevo as our mascot than leave the SEC.

That leaves a few schools that are desirable to both Conferences and might consider a move:

Nebraska
Penn St
Texas
USC

I'll discuss those 1 at a time:

1. Nebraska was desperate to get out of the Big 12 back in 2010. They knew Texas and others were giving sexy glances to the Pac, and they knew that they'd be happier in the B1G. Sure, the B1G hazed the crap out of them when they joined, but the hazing is over and they have every reason to expect that Good Times are on the horizon. Academically and culturally, they're more at home in the B1G. The waters have been muddied a bit with Missouri and now OU in the SEC, so I wouldn't say "never" here, but Nebraska is closer to the heart of the B1G than they are to the heart of the SEC, their travel is better in the B1G, and their Academicians are far happier in the B1G. It would take a LOT to get them to consider a move.

2. Penn St: I talk about them a lot as a prospective SEC member, but they have even more reason to be loyal to the B1G than Nebraska does. Like Nebraska, they're much closer to Rosemont than they are to Birmingham, and in PSU's darkest hour, the B1G stood by their side. Sure, they got a HUGE punishment, but the B1G could have voted to expel them and did not do so. PSU also is generally in the conversation at or near the top of the B1G, they don't need a move to have success on the field. Again, I wouldn't say "never", but the odds are even lower of PSU moving than of Nebraska.

3. Texas: They were always going to the SEC. The money's roughly the same as in the B1G, the travel is FAR better, the odds of winning Titles are better, and the Academics are acceptable to them now that A&M and Missouri are fully integrated. The Pac was always going to entail significantly more travel, the B1G would be even worse, while the SEC is very nearly the same amount of travel as the Big 12 has been for the past several decades. Never say never with them, however, and they're not as solidly in the SEC camp as Nebraska and PSU are in the B1G camp, but they've made their choice.

4. USC: more like Texas above, just from the B1G angle, they'd probably consider the SEC, but the B1G is a better fit. Somewhat better travel b/c of their old Pac friends moving along with them to the B1G, and they have VERY strong historical ties to the B1G. The Academic and cultural fit is also ideal. Would they ever consider an SEC move? I mean, maybe, but with the pseudo merger of the top of the Pac with the B1G, it would probably take something earthshaking to get them to even consider it. Using Frank's original B1G ranking of desirable adds, USC is a perfect 100 for the B1G. https://frankthetank.org/2009/12/27/the-...of-orange/

So, the "desirable and at least theoretically possible" schools are all somewhere between a firm no and a "not in a million years".

There are a few schools on the periphery that are sometimes discussed, mostly Missouri and again Nebraska, but the B1G doesn't want Missouri and Nebraska doesn't want the SEC.

Looking at all of the above, the biggest thing that I see is that all of the Big Brands in both Conferences greatly prefer their current Conference, and if any of us found ourselves in the other, we'd always accept an invite from our true "preferred" Conference. Ie, if USC had joined the SEC b/c the B1G wasn't interested, they'd accept a future B1G invite in a heartbeat. If A&M had joined the B1G for some strange reason back in 2011, we'd have still jumped at a future SEC invite. Texas just looked at all their available options and decided that the SEC was the right move for them. And if FSU accepts a B1G invite b/c they can't get an SEC invite today, they'd still jump at a future SEC invite. Ditto for Clemson.

The only 2 schools that are theoretically acceptable to both the B1G and SEC, and could go either way, are UNC and Miami. Both of them have big-enough Brands, both have the Academics for the B1G, and both could fit in either Conference. The next, and possibly final, battle between the SEC and B1G won't be over FSU or Clemson, but rather over UNC and Miami.

No. There is no stability in college athletics. Period.

Fans may as well enjoy watching their team get kicked in the teeth until the top 32 go into a media deal together.

USC has more grad students than Miami has total students btw. Miami doesn’t look like a Big Ten school on paper.

Money talks. If there was a huge money disparity between the 2 conferences then geography and historical ties be damned, somebody is moving.

(01-07-2024 02:28 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:  Money talks. If there was a huge money disparity between the 2 conferences then geography and historical ties be damned, somebody is moving.

Let me pose this hypothetical:

OUT won 3 national titles between them since A&M joined the SEC
USC won the national title in 2021 and looks a lot like Michigan or tOSU of the past few years
FSU and Clemson's records from the past 10 years are flipped, and Dabo has been at FSU for the past dozen years

Does FSU want to stop winning titles now? Does Texas feel that urgent need to join the SEC? What about USC? Perhaps they all still make the moves that they made, perhaps they decide that winning is more important and they stay where they are, I don't know. But I do know that all of them have been dissatisfied with their programs for a long time, and they all fell/felt that a move would enhance their competitiveness on the football field.

ND obviously is willing to forego some revenues to maintain their rivalries and identity. Would other Brands do so, especially if they were still winning big? I say that quite likely they would, most of them at least.

Contrast this with Clemson. Would they like to move? Yeah, probably, but they're not suing their way out of the GoR, either, and absent moves by OUT, USCLA, FSU, etc, they'd probably remain in the ACC at least until 2036 and quite possibly for the long term.

edit: one other thing I'll mention is that OUT and FSU are very different situations from USC. OUT had the luxury of seeing what happened to Nebraska, Missouri and A&M after we moved to the P2. Clearly, they decided that they liked what happened to A&M and Missouri much more than what happened to Nebraska, so much so that they decided that the SEC offered them a better future than either the B1G or Big 12. FSU only has ~ 30 years worth of history in the ACC, they won't be alienating half their fanbase by moving to a new conference. However, USC's move was earth-shattering, and they had to know that it was at least possible that it would lead to the disintegration of the Pac as a going concern. They must have been REALLY concerned about the future direction of the Pac, specifically the huge focus on non-revenue sports and the attempt to deep 6 the entire 2020 season. That makes me wonder if Stanford would ever get a B1G call, even if ND offers to join and they need a partner. Perhaps another old Pac school or someone else from the ACC would be a better fit in the B1G?

(01-07-2024 01:36 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I was just sitting around thinking about FSU, and it got me back to something that I've cogitated upon here and there over the past couple of years. We all know that there's a geographic component to the P2, and we all know that in a perfect world Sankey would love to drive an SEC flag into B1G country and Petitti would love to drive a B1G flag into SEC country. However, what about the member institutions?

The way I see it, there are only a few B1G schools that the SEC would even consider, and there are only a few SEC schools that the B1G would even consider. The problem with most of them is that very strong historical ties bind them to their current Conference, and nothing short of a 10 on the Richter scale would ever get them to seriously consider a move.

To wit:

B1G schools that the SEC would like but would not consider a move:
tOSU
Michigan

Those 2 are the big enchiladas, and peeling off either would signal a move to the P1. However, why would they leave? They get to dominate a true "Power" Conference in football right now, and they'd be unlikely to do so in the SEC. They also view the B1G (correctly in my view) as a conference that they had a whole lot to do with assembling. The only way they'd leave would be to help form a new P1, again joining on the ground floor and having a whole lot of input.

SEC schools that the B1G would like but would not consider a move:
Florida
Texas A&M
Georgia
Alabama

The first 2 are big Brands and AAU, and we have geography on our side, and the latter 2 leaving would start the B1G down the path to becoming the P1. However, everyone except A&M is a founding SEC member, and A&M would rather swap Reveille for Bevo as our mascot than leave the SEC.

That leaves a few schools that are desirable to both Conferences and might consider a move:

Nebraska
Penn St
Texas
USC

I'll discuss those 1 at a time:

1. Nebraska was desperate to get out of the Big 12 back in 2010. They knew Texas and others were giving sexy glances to the Pac, and they knew that they'd be happier in the B1G. Sure, the B1G hazed the crap out of them when they joined, but the hazing is over and they have every reason to expect that Good Times are on the horizon. Academically and culturally, they're more at home in the B1G. The waters have been muddied a bit with Missouri and now OU in the SEC, so I wouldn't say "never" here, but Nebraska is closer to the heart of the B1G than they are to the heart of the SEC, their travel is better in the B1G, and their Academicians are far happier in the B1G. It would take a LOT to get them to consider a move.

2. Penn St: I talk about them a lot as a prospective SEC member, but they have even more reason to be loyal to the B1G than Nebraska does. Like Nebraska, they're much closer to Rosemont than they are to Birmingham, and in PSU's darkest hour, the B1G stood by their side. Sure, they got a HUGE punishment, but the B1G could have voted to expel them and did not do so. PSU also is generally in the conversation at or near the top of the B1G, they don't need a move to have success on the field. Again, I wouldn't say "never", but the odds are even lower of PSU moving than of Nebraska.

3. Texas: They were always going to the SEC. The money's roughly the same as in the B1G, the travel is FAR better, the odds of winning Titles are better, and the Academics are acceptable to them now that A&M and Missouri are fully integrated. The Pac was always going to entail significantly more travel, the B1G would be even worse, while the SEC is very nearly the same amount of travel as the Big 12 has been for the past several decades. Never say never with them, however, and they're not as solidly in the SEC camp as Nebraska and PSU are in the B1G camp, but they've made their choice.

4. USC: more like Texas above, just from the B1G angle, they'd probably consider the SEC, but the B1G is a better fit. Somewhat better travel b/c of their old Pac friends moving along with them to the B1G, and they have VERY strong historical ties to the B1G. The Academic and cultural fit is also ideal. Would they ever consider an SEC move? I mean, maybe, but with the pseudo merger of the top of the Pac with the B1G, it would probably take something earthshaking to get them to even consider it. Using Frank's original B1G ranking of desirable adds, USC is a perfect 100 for the B1G. https://frankthetank.org/2009/12/27/the-...of-orange/

So, the "desirable and at least theoretically possible" schools are all somewhere between a firm no and a "not in a million years".

There are a few schools on the periphery that are sometimes discussed, mostly Missouri and again Nebraska, but the B1G doesn't want Missouri and Nebraska doesn't want the SEC.

Looking at all of the above, the biggest thing that I see is that all of the Big Brands in both Conferences greatly prefer their current Conference, and if any of us found ourselves in the other, we'd always accept an invite from our true "preferred" Conference. Ie, if USC had joined the SEC b/c the B1G wasn't interested, they'd accept a future B1G invite in a heartbeat. If A&M had joined the B1G for some strange reason back in 2011, we'd have still jumped at a future SEC invite. Texas just looked at all their available options and decided that the SEC was the right move for them. And if FSU accepts a B1G invite b/c they can't get an SEC invite today, they'd still jump at a future SEC invite. Ditto for Clemson.

The only 2 schools that are theoretically acceptable to both the B1G and SEC, and could go either way, are UNC and Miami. Both of them have big-enough Brands, both have the Academics for the B1G, and both could fit in either Conference. The next, and possibly final, battle between the SEC and B1G won't be over FSU or Clemson, but rather over UNC and Miami.

Several of those schools might move.

For one thing, as was seen in the SWC and the Big12, Texas is a disruptive factor internally. Whether caused by, or merely involved in, we can leave to others to sort out.

I think they may have met their match in Alabama, but in the meanwhile, I could imagine former Big12 schools like Texas A&M and Missouri looking at the Big10 for possibilities, if the disruption continues in the western SEC.

As for Nebraska, I think they would have more issues, not less, if they went to the SEC.

I also think that we could see the eastern schools of the Big10 and some from the ACC break away to form a new conference. I think there's very likely a lot of pressure for the Big10 to add the rest of the western AAU schools with the implosion of the PAC. I think USC is likely to push for the Arizona schools.

I could imagine Michigan and Ohio State walking away from the Big10 to allow for that to happen. It's not hard to pick 10 eastern time zone AAU schools to create a new Big10.

Penn State could join them or help rebuild the ACC. They are very much an eastern time zone school, and apparently have rattled the cages a bit about concerns about not enough eastern schools to play.

I would imagine that that's likely the new paradigm. PSU and USC on either end with Michigan and Ohio State in the middle between the two sides.

As great as Alabama football may be, I don't think the Big10 is interested. Georgia and especially Florida on the other hand seem much more likely targets. That said, I think those two would be more likely to a new eastern time zone Big10, than the current one.

Potential eastern Big10:

Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia

And, then they could expand by adding various Florida and Georgia (and North Carolina) schools, if wanted.

And there's always room for Notre Dame. A new conference could thus have new rules on membership, so adding ND with an ACC-like deal, might be more possible.

(01-07-2024 01:36 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I was just sitting around thinking about FSU, and it got me back to something that I've cogitated upon here and there over the past couple of years. We all know that there's a geographic component to the P2, and we all know that in a perfect world Sankey would love to drive an SEC flag into B1G country and Petitti would love to drive a B1G flag into SEC country. However, what about the member institutions?

The way I see it, there are only a few B1G schools that the SEC would even consider, and there are only a few SEC schools that the B1G would even consider. The problem with most of them is that very strong historical ties bind them to their current Conference, and nothing short of a 10 on the Richter scale would ever get them to seriously consider a move.

To wit:

B1G schools that the SEC would like but would not consider a move:
tOSU
Michigan

Those 2 are the big enchiladas, and peeling off either would signal a move to the P1. However, why would they leave? They get to dominate a true "Power" Conference in football right now, and they'd be unlikely to do so in the SEC. They also view the B1G (correctly in my view) as a conference that they had a whole lot to do with assembling. The only way they'd leave would be to help form a new P1, again joining on the ground floor and having a whole lot of input.

SEC schools that the B1G would like but would not consider a move:
Florida
Texas A&M
Georgia
Alabama

The first 2 are big Brands and AAU, and we have geography on our side, and the latter 2 leaving would start the B1G down the path to becoming the P1. However, everyone except A&M is a founding SEC member, and A&M would rather swap Reveille for Bevo as our mascot than leave the SEC.

That leaves a few schools that are desirable to both Conferences and might consider a move:

Nebraska
Penn St
Texas
USC

I'll discuss those 1 at a time:

1. Nebraska was desperate to get out of the Big 12 back in 2010. They knew Texas and others were giving sexy glances to the Pac, and they knew that they'd be happier in the B1G. Sure, the B1G hazed the crap out of them when they joined, but the hazing is over and they have every reason to expect that Good Times are on the horizon. Academically and culturally, they're more at home in the B1G. The waters have been muddied a bit with Missouri and now OU in the SEC, so I wouldn't say "never" here, but Nebraska is closer to the heart of the B1G than they are to the heart of the SEC, their travel is better in the B1G, and their Academicians are far happier in the B1G. It would take a LOT to get them to consider a move.

2. Penn St: I talk about them a lot as a prospective SEC member, but they have even more reason to be loyal to the B1G than Nebraska does. Like Nebraska, they're much closer to Rosemont than they are to Birmingham, and in PSU's darkest hour, the B1G stood by their side. Sure, they got a HUGE punishment, but the B1G could have voted to expel them and did not do so. PSU also is generally in the conversation at or near the top of the B1G, they don't need a move to have success on the field. Again, I wouldn't say "never", but the odds are even lower of PSU moving than of Nebraska.

3. Texas: They were always going to the SEC. The money's roughly the same as in the B1G, the travel is FAR better, the odds of winning Titles are better, and the Academics are acceptable to them now that A&M and Missouri are fully integrated. The Pac was always going to entail significantly more travel, the B1G would be even worse, while the SEC is very nearly the same amount of travel as the Big 12 has been for the past several decades. Never say never with them, however, and they're not as solidly in the SEC camp as Nebraska and PSU are in the B1G camp, but they've made their choice.

4. USC: more like Texas above, just from the B1G angle, they'd probably consider the SEC, but the B1G is a better fit. Somewhat better travel b/c of their old Pac friends moving along with them to the B1G, and they have VERY strong historical ties to the B1G. The Academic and cultural fit is also ideal. Would they ever consider an SEC move? I mean, maybe, but with the pseudo merger of the top of the Pac with the B1G, it would probably take something earthshaking to get them to even consider it. Using Frank's original B1G ranking of desirable adds, USC is a perfect 100 for the B1G. https://frankthetank.org/2009/12/27/the-...of-orange/

So, the "desirable and at least theoretically possible" schools are all somewhere between a firm no and a "not in a million years".

There are a few schools on the periphery that are sometimes discussed, mostly Missouri and again Nebraska, but the B1G doesn't want Missouri and Nebraska doesn't want the SEC.

Looking at all of the above, the biggest thing that I see is that all of the Big Brands in both Conferences greatly prefer their current Conference, and if any of us found ourselves in the other, we'd always accept an invite from our true "preferred" Conference. Ie, if USC had joined the SEC b/c the B1G wasn't interested, they'd accept a future B1G invite in a heartbeat. If A&M had joined the B1G for some strange reason back in 2011, we'd have still jumped at a future SEC invite. Texas just looked at all their available options and decided that the SEC was the right move for them. And if FSU accepts a B1G invite b/c they can't get an SEC invite today, they'd still jump at a future SEC invite. Ditto for Clemson.

The only 2 schools that are theoretically acceptable to both the B1G and SEC, and could go either way, are UNC and Miami. Both of them have big-enough Brands, both have the Academics for the B1G, and both could fit in either Conference. The next, and possibly final, battle between the SEC and B1G won't be over FSU or Clemson, but rather over UNC and Miami.

Where in the hell can you back up that statement? Sankey has repeatedly said that the SEC wants to remain regional and protect rivalries. The SEC has the best national viewership and is still regional. Why? Top to bottom we offer a better competitiveness in college football than any other conference, with only the old Big 12 having near the same depth? The SEC presidents want to remain regional! There is no disunity on this point. If Ohio State applied, would we turn them down? No! They are contiguous and in their case the money would demand inclusion. But why in the heck would Ohio State want to do that? The SEC will not seek them out because it is not in our plan. If Notre Dame applied, they would be accepted too. But what do we have in common except for the love of the color Green, cash green to be specific.

The SEC has the best national audience, the most recruits and our non-media revenue dwarfs on average per school the Big 10's non-media revenue, which is why they like to talk about "media" revenue only, and I insist that we talk about "all" revenue. We have what they no longer have, cohesion. We'll play that hand! It is, has been, and will be a winner.

(01-07-2024 03:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-07-2024 01:36 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I was just sitting around thinking about FSU, and it got me back to something that I've cogitated upon here and there over the past couple of years. We all know that there's a geographic component to the P2, and we all know that in a perfect world Sankey would love to drive an SEC flag into B1G country and Petitti would love to drive a B1G flag into SEC country. However, what about the member institutions?

The way I see it, there are only a few B1G schools that the SEC would even consider, and there are only a few SEC schools that the B1G would even consider. The problem with most of them is that very strong historical ties bind them to their current Conference, and nothing short of a 10 on the Richter scale would ever get them to seriously consider a move.

To wit:

B1G schools that the SEC would like but would not consider a move:
tOSU
Michigan

Those 2 are the big enchiladas, and peeling off either would signal a move to the P1. However, why would they leave? They get to dominate a true "Power" Conference in football right now, and they'd be unlikely to do so in the SEC. They also view the B1G (correctly in my view) as a conference that they had a whole lot to do with assembling. The only way they'd leave would be to help form a new P1, again joining on the ground floor and having a whole lot of input.

SEC schools that the B1G would like but would not consider a move:
Florida
Texas A&M
Georgia
Alabama

The first 2 are big Brands and AAU, and we have geography on our side, and the latter 2 leaving would start the B1G down the path to becoming the P1. However, everyone except A&M is a founding SEC member, and A&M would rather swap Reveille for Bevo as our mascot than leave the SEC.

That leaves a few schools that are desirable to both Conferences and might consider a move:

Nebraska
Penn St
Texas
USC

I'll discuss those 1 at a time:

1. Nebraska was desperate to get out of the Big 12 back in 2010. They knew Texas and others were giving sexy glances to the Pac, and they knew that they'd be happier in the B1G. Sure, the B1G hazed the crap out of them when they joined, but the hazing is over and they have every reason to expect that Good Times are on the horizon. Academically and culturally, they're more at home in the B1G. The waters have been muddied a bit with Missouri and now OU in the SEC, so I wouldn't say "never" here, but Nebraska is closer to the heart of the B1G than they are to the heart of the SEC, their travel is better in the B1G, and their Academicians are far happier in the B1G. It would take a LOT to get them to consider a move.

2. Penn St: I talk about them a lot as a prospective SEC member, but they have even more reason to be loyal to the B1G than Nebraska does. Like Nebraska, they're much closer to Rosemont than they are to Birmingham, and in PSU's darkest hour, the B1G stood by their side. Sure, they got a HUGE punishment, but the B1G could have voted to expel them and did not do so. PSU also is generally in the conversation at or near the top of the B1G, they don't need a move to have success on the field. Again, I wouldn't say "never", but the odds are even lower of PSU moving than of Nebraska.

3. Texas: They were always going to the SEC. The money's roughly the same as in the B1G, the travel is FAR better, the odds of winning Titles are better, and the Academics are acceptable to them now that A&M and Missouri are fully integrated. The Pac was always going to entail significantly more travel, the B1G would be even worse, while the SEC is very nearly the same amount of travel as the Big 12 has been for the past several decades. Never say never with them, however, and they're not as solidly in the SEC camp as Nebraska and PSU are in the B1G camp, but they've made their choice.

4. USC: more like Texas above, just from the B1G angle, they'd probably consider the SEC, but the B1G is a better fit. Somewhat better travel b/c of their old Pac friends moving along with them to the B1G, and they have VERY strong historical ties to the B1G. The Academic and cultural fit is also ideal. Would they ever consider an SEC move? I mean, maybe, but with the pseudo merger of the top of the Pac with the B1G, it would probably take something earthshaking to get them to even consider it. Using Frank's original B1G ranking of desirable adds, USC is a perfect 100 for the B1G. https://frankthetank.org/2009/12/27/the-...of-orange/

So, the "desirable and at least theoretically possible" schools are all somewhere between a firm no and a "not in a million years".

There are a few schools on the periphery that are sometimes discussed, mostly Missouri and again Nebraska, but the B1G doesn't want Missouri and Nebraska doesn't want the SEC.

Looking at all of the above, the biggest thing that I see is that all of the Big Brands in both Conferences greatly prefer their current Conference, and if any of us found ourselves in the other, we'd always accept an invite from our true "preferred" Conference. Ie, if USC had joined the SEC b/c the B1G wasn't interested, they'd accept a future B1G invite in a heartbeat. If A&M had joined the B1G for some strange reason back in 2011, we'd have still jumped at a future SEC invite. Texas just looked at all their available options and decided that the SEC was the right move for them. And if FSU accepts a B1G invite b/c they can't get an SEC invite today, they'd still jump at a future SEC invite. Ditto for Clemson.

The only 2 schools that are theoretically acceptable to both the B1G and SEC, and could go either way, are UNC and Miami. Both of them have big-enough Brands, both have the Academics for the B1G, and both could fit in either Conference. The next, and possibly final, battle between the SEC and B1G won't be over FSU or Clemson, but rather over UNC and Miami.

Where in the hell can you back up that statement? Sankey has repeatedly said that the SEC wants to remain regional and protect rivalries. The SEC has the best national viewership and is still regional. Why? Top to bottom we offer a better competitiveness in college football than any other conference, with only the old Big 12 having near the same depth? The SEC presidents want to remain regional! There is no disunity on this point. If Ohio State applied, would we turn them down? No! They are contiguous and in their case the money would demand inclusion. But why in the heck would Ohio State want to do that? The SEC will not seek them out because it is not in our plan. If Notre Dame applied, they would be accepted too. But what do we have in common except for the love of the color Green, cash green to be specific.

The SEC has the best national audience, the most recruits and our non-media revenue dwarfs on average per school the Big 10's non-media revenue, which is why they like to talk about "media" revenue only, and I insist that we talk about "all" revenue. We have what they no longer have, cohesion. We'll play that hand! It is, has been, and will be a winner.

Tell me with a straight face that Sankey would spurn tOSU, PSU or Michigan. Nebraska can be viewed as contested as they've been in a conference with 4 SEC schools and they're adjacent to an SEC state.

Notice that I didn't say that Sankey would like to pick just any ole' B1G school. I specifically talked about schools that could make sense in the SEC, and also would weaken the B1G by leaving.

To answer your question Bryan, the rich are getting richer. The money disparity continues to widen as conferences consolidate. Changing markets could mean there is no more seats at the P2 table, better grab a seat while it’s there.

(01-07-2024 03:06 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-07-2024 01:36 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I was just sitting around thinking about FSU, and it got me back to something that I've cogitated upon here and there over the past couple of years. We all know that there's a geographic component to the P2, and we all know that in a perfect world Sankey would love to drive an SEC flag into B1G country and Petitti would love to drive a B1G flag into SEC country. However, what about the member institutions?

The way I see it, there are only a few B1G schools that the SEC would even consider, and there are only a few SEC schools that the B1G would even consider. The problem with most of them is that very strong historical ties bind them to their current Conference, and nothing short of a 10 on the Richter scale would ever get them to seriously consider a move.

To wit:

B1G schools that the SEC would like but would not consider a move:
tOSU
Michigan

Those 2 are the big enchiladas, and peeling off either would signal a move to the P1. However, why would they leave? They get to dominate a true "Power" Conference in football right now, and they'd be unlikely to do so in the SEC. They also view the B1G (correctly in my view) as a conference that they had a whole lot to do with assembling. The only way they'd leave would be to help form a new P1, again joining on the ground floor and having a whole lot of input.

SEC schools that the B1G would like but would not consider a move:
Florida
Texas A&M
Georgia
Alabama

The first 2 are big Brands and AAU, and we have geography on our side, and the latter 2 leaving would start the B1G down the path to becoming the P1. However, everyone except A&M is a founding SEC member, and A&M would rather swap Reveille for Bevo as our mascot than leave the SEC.

That leaves a few schools that are desirable to both Conferences and might consider a move:

Nebraska
Penn St
Texas
USC

I'll discuss those 1 at a time:

1. Nebraska was desperate to get out of the Big 12 back in 2010. They knew Texas and others were giving sexy glances to the Pac, and they knew that they'd be happier in the B1G. Sure, the B1G hazed the crap out of them when they joined, but the hazing is over and they have every reason to expect that Good Times are on the horizon. Academically and culturally, they're more at home in the B1G. The waters have been muddied a bit with Missouri and now OU in the SEC, so I wouldn't say "never" here, but Nebraska is closer to the heart of the B1G than they are to the heart of the SEC, their travel is better in the B1G, and their Academicians are far happier in the B1G. It would take a LOT to get them to consider a move.

2. Penn St: I talk about them a lot as a prospective SEC member, but they have even more reason to be loyal to the B1G than Nebraska does. Like Nebraska, they're much closer to Rosemont than they are to Birmingham, and in PSU's darkest hour, the B1G stood by their side. Sure, they got a HUGE punishment, but the B1G could have voted to expel them and did not do so. PSU also is generally in the conversation at or near the top of the B1G, they don't need a move to have success on the field. Again, I wouldn't say "never", but the odds are even lower of PSU moving than of Nebraska.

3. Texas: They were always going to the SEC. The money's roughly the same as in the B1G, the travel is FAR better, the odds of winning Titles are better, and the Academics are acceptable to them now that A&M and Missouri are fully integrated. The Pac was always going to entail significantly more travel, the B1G would be even worse, while the SEC is very nearly the same amount of travel as the Big 12 has been for the past several decades. Never say never with them, however, and they're not as solidly in the SEC camp as Nebraska and PSU are in the B1G camp, but they've made their choice.

4. USC: more like Texas above, just from the B1G angle, they'd probably consider the SEC, but the B1G is a better fit. Somewhat better travel b/c of their old Pac friends moving along with them to the B1G, and they have VERY strong historical ties to the B1G. The Academic and cultural fit is also ideal. Would they ever consider an SEC move? I mean, maybe, but with the pseudo merger of the top of the Pac with the B1G, it would probably take something earthshaking to get them to even consider it. Using Frank's original B1G ranking of desirable adds, USC is a perfect 100 for the B1G. https://frankthetank.org/2009/12/27/the-...of-orange/

So, the "desirable and at least theoretically possible" schools are all somewhere between a firm no and a "not in a million years".

There are a few schools on the periphery that are sometimes discussed, mostly Missouri and again Nebraska, but the B1G doesn't want Missouri and Nebraska doesn't want the SEC.

Looking at all of the above, the biggest thing that I see is that all of the Big Brands in both Conferences greatly prefer their current Conference, and if any of us found ourselves in the other, we'd always accept an invite from our true "preferred" Conference. Ie, if USC had joined the SEC b/c the B1G wasn't interested, they'd accept a future B1G invite in a heartbeat. If A&M had joined the B1G for some strange reason back in 2011, we'd have still jumped at a future SEC invite. Texas just looked at all their available options and decided that the SEC was the right move for them. And if FSU accepts a B1G invite b/c they can't get an SEC invite today, they'd still jump at a future SEC invite. Ditto for Clemson.

The only 2 schools that are theoretically acceptable to both the B1G and SEC, and could go either way, are UNC and Miami. Both of them have big-enough Brands, both have the Academics for the B1G, and both could fit in either Conference. The next, and possibly final, battle between the SEC and B1G won't be over FSU or Clemson, but rather over UNC and Miami.

Several of those schools might move.

For one thing, as was seen in the SWC and the Big12, Texas is a disruptive factor internally. Whether caused by, or merely involved in, we can leave to others to sort out.

I think they may have met their match in Alabama, but in the meanwhile, I could imagine former Big12 schools like Texas A&M and Missouri looking at the Big10 for possibilities, if the disruption continues in the western SEC.

As for Nebraska, I think they would have more issues, not less, if they went to the SEC.

I also think that we could see the eastern schools of the Big10 and some from the ACC break away to form a new conference. I think there's very likely a lot of pressure for the Big10 to add the rest of the western AAU schools with the implosion of the PAC. I think USC is likely to push for the Arizona schools.

I could imagine Michigan and Ohio State walking away from the Big10 to allow for that to happen. It's not hard to pick 10 eastern time zone AAU schools to create a new Big10.

Penn State could join them or help rebuild the ACC. They are very much an eastern time zone school, and apparently have rattled the cages a bit about concerns about not enough eastern schools to play.

I would imagine that that's likely the new paradigm. PSU and USC on either end with Michigan and Ohio State in the middle between the two sides.

As great as Alabama football may be, I don't think the Big10 is interested. Georgia and especially Florida on the other hand seem much more likely targets. That said, I think those two would be more likely to a new eastern time zone Big10, than the current one.

Potential eastern Big10:

Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia

And, then they could expand by adding various Florida and Georgia (and North Carolina) schools, if wanted.

And there's always room for Notre Dame. A new conference could thus have new rules on membership, so adding ND with an ACC-like deal, might be more possible.

Nobody in the SEC is worried about Texas turning into a disruptive force. Texas, along with A&M, built the SWC. Texas, along with A&M, OU, and Nebraska, built the Big 12. Texas is joining the SEC over 90 years after it was founded. They're not making the rules, they're learning them. If anyone in the SEC was worried about inviting them then there would have been a whole lot more drama than one rogue A&M Regent leaking details to the press.

I tell people this all the time, Texas is about 2/3 A&M and 1/3 Cal. The SEC is happy with both parts, the Academics are a really nice feather in our cap and more A&M is a good thing for everyone!

(01-07-2024 03:35 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-07-2024 03:06 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-07-2024 01:36 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I was just sitting around thinking about FSU, and it got me back to something that I've cogitated upon here and there over the past couple of years. We all know that there's a geographic component to the P2, and we all know that in a perfect world Sankey would love to drive an SEC flag into B1G country and Petitti would love to drive a B1G flag into SEC country. However, what about the member institutions?

The way I see it, there are only a few B1G schools that the SEC would even consider, and there are only a few SEC schools that the B1G would even consider. The problem with most of them is that very strong historical ties bind them to their current Conference, and nothing short of a 10 on the Richter scale would ever get them to seriously consider a move.

To wit:

B1G schools that the SEC would like but would not consider a move:
tOSU
Michigan

Those 2 are the big enchiladas, and peeling off either would signal a move to the P1. However, why would they leave? They get to dominate a true "Power" Conference in football right now, and they'd be unlikely to do so in the SEC. They also view the B1G (correctly in my view) as a conference that they had a whole lot to do with assembling. The only way they'd leave would be to help form a new P1, again joining on the ground floor and having a whole lot of input.

SEC schools that the B1G would like but would not consider a move:
Florida
Texas A&M
Georgia
Alabama

The first 2 are big Brands and AAU, and we have geography on our side, and the latter 2 leaving would start the B1G down the path to becoming the P1. However, everyone except A&M is a founding SEC member, and A&M would rather swap Reveille for Bevo as our mascot than leave the SEC.

That leaves a few schools that are desirable to both Conferences and might consider a move:

Nebraska
Penn St
Texas
USC

I'll discuss those 1 at a time:

1. Nebraska was desperate to get out of the Big 12 back in 2010. They knew Texas and others were giving sexy glances to the Pac, and they knew that they'd be happier in the B1G. Sure, the B1G hazed the crap out of them when they joined, but the hazing is over and they have every reason to expect that Good Times are on the horizon. Academically and culturally, they're more at home in the B1G. The waters have been muddied a bit with Missouri and now OU in the SEC, so I wouldn't say "never" here, but Nebraska is closer to the heart of the B1G than they are to the heart of the SEC, their travel is better in the B1G, and their Academicians are far happier in the B1G. It would take a LOT to get them to consider a move.

2. Penn St: I talk about them a lot as a prospective SEC member, but they have even more reason to be loyal to the B1G than Nebraska does. Like Nebraska, they're much closer to Rosemont than they are to Birmingham, and in PSU's darkest hour, the B1G stood by their side. Sure, they got a HUGE punishment, but the B1G could have voted to expel them and did not do so. PSU also is generally in the conversation at or near the top of the B1G, they don't need a move to have success on the field. Again, I wouldn't say "never", but the odds are even lower of PSU moving than of Nebraska.

3. Texas: They were always going to the SEC. The money's roughly the same as in the B1G, the travel is FAR better, the odds of winning Titles are better, and the Academics are acceptable to them now that A&M and Missouri are fully integrated. The Pac was always going to entail significantly more travel, the B1G would be even worse, while the SEC is very nearly the same amount of travel as the Big 12 has been for the past several decades. Never say never with them, however, and they're not as solidly in the SEC camp as Nebraska and PSU are in the B1G camp, but they've made their choice.

4. USC: more like Texas above, just from the B1G angle, they'd probably consider the SEC, but the B1G is a better fit. Somewhat better travel b/c of their old Pac friends moving along with them to the B1G, and they have VERY strong historical ties to the B1G. The Academic and cultural fit is also ideal. Would they ever consider an SEC move? I mean, maybe, but with the pseudo merger of the top of the Pac with the B1G, it would probably take something earthshaking to get them to even consider it. Using Frank's original B1G ranking of desirable adds, USC is a perfect 100 for the B1G. https://frankthetank.org/2009/12/27/the-...of-orange/

So, the "desirable and at least theoretically possible" schools are all somewhere between a firm no and a "not in a million years".

There are a few schools on the periphery that are sometimes discussed, mostly Missouri and again Nebraska, but the B1G doesn't want Missouri and Nebraska doesn't want the SEC.

Looking at all of the above, the biggest thing that I see is that all of the Big Brands in both Conferences greatly prefer their current Conference, and if any of us found ourselves in the other, we'd always accept an invite from our true "preferred" Conference. Ie, if USC had joined the SEC b/c the B1G wasn't interested, they'd accept a future B1G invite in a heartbeat. If A&M had joined the B1G for some strange reason back in 2011, we'd have still jumped at a future SEC invite. Texas just looked at all their available options and decided that the SEC was the right move for them. And if FSU accepts a B1G invite b/c they can't get an SEC invite today, they'd still jump at a future SEC invite. Ditto for Clemson.

The only 2 schools that are theoretically acceptable to both the B1G and SEC, and could go either way, are UNC and Miami. Both of them have big-enough Brands, both have the Academics for the B1G, and both could fit in either Conference. The next, and possibly final, battle between the SEC and B1G won't be over FSU or Clemson, but rather over UNC and Miami.

Several of those schools might move.

For one thing, as was seen in the SWC and the Big12, Texas is a disruptive factor internally. Whether caused by, or merely involved in, we can leave to others to sort out.

I think they may have met their match in Alabama, but in the meanwhile, I could imagine former Big12 schools like Texas A&M and Missouri looking at the Big10 for possibilities, if the disruption continues in the western SEC.

As for Nebraska, I think they would have more issues, not less, if they went to the SEC.

I also think that we could see the eastern schools of the Big10 and some from the ACC break away to form a new conference. I think there's very likely a lot of pressure for the Big10 to add the rest of the western AAU schools with the implosion of the PAC. I think USC is likely to push for the Arizona schools.

I could imagine Michigan and Ohio State walking away from the Big10 to allow for that to happen. It's not hard to pick 10 eastern time zone AAU schools to create a new Big10.

Penn State could join them or help rebuild the ACC. They are very much an eastern time zone school, and apparently have rattled the cages a bit about concerns about not enough eastern schools to play.

I would imagine that that's likely the new paradigm. PSU and USC on either end with Michigan and Ohio State in the middle between the two sides.

As great as Alabama football may be, I don't think the Big10 is interested. Georgia and especially Florida on the other hand seem much more likely targets. That said, I think those two would be more likely to a new eastern time zone Big10, than the current one.

Potential eastern Big10:

Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia

And, then they could expand by adding various Florida and Georgia (and North Carolina) schools, if wanted.

And there's always room for Notre Dame. A new conference could thus have new rules on membership, so adding ND with an ACC-like deal, might be more possible.

Nobody in the SEC is worried about Texas turning into a disruptive force. Texas, along with A&M, built the SWC. Texas, along with A&M, OU, and Nebraska, built the Big 12. Texas is joining the SEC over 90 years after it was founded. They're not making the rules, they're learning them. If anyone in the SEC was worried about inviting them then there would have been a whole lot more drama than one rogue A&M Regent leaking details to the press.

I tell people this all the time, Texas is about 2/3 A&M and 1/3 Cal. The SEC is happy with both parts, the Academics are a really nice feather in our cap and more A&M is a good thing for everyone!

2 schools built the SWC? 3 schools built the Big12?

I think I understand the point you'd like to be making there. But, to my eyes at least, saying that, actually more proves what I was saying...

(01-07-2024 03:29 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-07-2024 03:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-07-2024 01:36 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I was just sitting around thinking about FSU, and it got me back to something that I've cogitated upon here and there over the past couple of years. We all know that there's a geographic component to the P2, and we all know that in a perfect world Sankey would love to drive an SEC flag into B1G country and Petitti would love to drive a B1G flag into SEC country. However, what about the member institutions?

The way I see it, there are only a few B1G schools that the SEC would even consider, and there are only a few SEC schools that the B1G would even consider. The problem with most of them is that very strong historical ties bind them to their current Conference, and nothing short of a 10 on the Richter scale would ever get them to seriously consider a move.

To wit:

B1G schools that the SEC would like but would not consider a move:
tOSU
Michigan

Those 2 are the big enchiladas, and peeling off either would signal a move to the P1. However, why would they leave? They get to dominate a true "Power" Conference in football right now, and they'd be unlikely to do so in the SEC. They also view the B1G (correctly in my view) as a conference that they had a whole lot to do with assembling. The only way they'd leave would be to help form a new P1, again joining on the ground floor and having a whole lot of input.

SEC schools that the B1G would like but would not consider a move:
Florida
Texas A&M
Georgia
Alabama

The first 2 are big Brands and AAU, and we have geography on our side, and the latter 2 leaving would start the B1G down the path to becoming the P1. However, everyone except A&M is a founding SEC member, and A&M would rather swap Reveille for Bevo as our mascot than leave the SEC.

That leaves a few schools that are desirable to both Conferences and might consider a move:

Nebraska
Penn St
Texas
USC

I'll discuss those 1 at a time:

1. Nebraska was desperate to get out of the Big 12 back in 2010. They knew Texas and others were giving sexy glances to the Pac, and they knew that they'd be happier in the B1G. Sure, the B1G hazed the crap out of them when they joined, but the hazing is over and they have every reason to expect that Good Times are on the horizon. Academically and culturally, they're more at home in the B1G. The waters have been muddied a bit with Missouri and now OU in the SEC, so I wouldn't say "never" here, but Nebraska is closer to the heart of the B1G than they are to the heart of the SEC, their travel is better in the B1G, and their Academicians are far happier in the B1G. It would take a LOT to get them to consider a move.

2. Penn St: I talk about them a lot as a prospective SEC member, but they have even more reason to be loyal to the B1G than Nebraska does. Like Nebraska, they're much closer to Rosemont than they are to Birmingham, and in PSU's darkest hour, the B1G stood by their side. Sure, they got a HUGE punishment, but the B1G could have voted to expel them and did not do so. PSU also is generally in the conversation at or near the top of the B1G, they don't need a move to have success on the field. Again, I wouldn't say "never", but the odds are even lower of PSU moving than of Nebraska.

3. Texas: They were always going to the SEC. The money's roughly the same as in the B1G, the travel is FAR better, the odds of winning Titles are better, and the Academics are acceptable to them now that A&M and Missouri are fully integrated. The Pac was always going to entail significantly more travel, the B1G would be even worse, while the SEC is very nearly the same amount of travel as the Big 12 has been for the past several decades. Never say never with them, however, and they're not as solidly in the SEC camp as Nebraska and PSU are in the B1G camp, but they've made their choice.

4. USC: more like Texas above, just from the B1G angle, they'd probably consider the SEC, but the B1G is a better fit. Somewhat better travel b/c of their old Pac friends moving along with them to the B1G, and they have VERY strong historical ties to the B1G. The Academic and cultural fit is also ideal. Would they ever consider an SEC move? I mean, maybe, but with the pseudo merger of the top of the Pac with the B1G, it would probably take something earthshaking to get them to even consider it. Using Frank's original B1G ranking of desirable adds, USC is a perfect 100 for the B1G. https://frankthetank.org/2009/12/27/the-...of-orange/

So, the "desirable and at least theoretically possible" schools are all somewhere between a firm no and a "not in a million years".

There are a few schools on the periphery that are sometimes discussed, mostly Missouri and again Nebraska, but the B1G doesn't want Missouri and Nebraska doesn't want the SEC.

Looking at all of the above, the biggest thing that I see is that all of the Big Brands in both Conferences greatly prefer their current Conference, and if any of us found ourselves in the other, we'd always accept an invite from our true "preferred" Conference. Ie, if USC had joined the SEC b/c the B1G wasn't interested, they'd accept a future B1G invite in a heartbeat. If A&M had joined the B1G for some strange reason back in 2011, we'd have still jumped at a future SEC invite. Texas just looked at all their available options and decided that the SEC was the right move for them. And if FSU accepts a B1G invite b/c they can't get an SEC invite today, they'd still jump at a future SEC invite. Ditto for Clemson.

The only 2 schools that are theoretically acceptable to both the B1G and SEC, and could go either way, are UNC and Miami. Both of them have big-enough Brands, both have the Academics for the B1G, and both could fit in either Conference. The next, and possibly final, battle between the SEC and B1G won't be over FSU or Clemson, but rather over UNC and Miami.

Where in the hell can you back up that statement? Sankey has repeatedly said that the SEC wants to remain regional and protect rivalries. The SEC has the best national viewership and is still regional. Why? Top to bottom we offer a better competitiveness in college football than any other conference, with only the old Big 12 having near the same depth? The SEC presidents want to remain regional! There is no disunity on this point. If Ohio State applied, would we turn them down? No! They are contiguous and in their case the money would demand inclusion. But why in the heck would Ohio State want to do that? The SEC will not seek them out because it is not in our plan. If Notre Dame applied, they would be accepted too. But what do we have in common except for the love of the color Green, cash green to be specific.

The SEC has the best national audience, the most recruits and our non-media revenue dwarfs on average per school the Big 10's non-media revenue, which is why they like to talk about "media" revenue only, and I insist that we talk about "all" revenue. We have what they no longer have, cohesion. We'll play that hand! It is, has been, and will be a winner.

Tell me with a straight face that Sankey would spurn tOSU, PSU or Michigan. Nebraska can be viewed as contested as they've been in a conference with 4 SEC schools and they're adjacent to an SEC state.

Notice that I didn't say that Sankey would like to pick just any ole' B1G school. I specifically talked about schools that could make sense in the SEC, and also would weaken the B1G by leaving.

He kind of spurned them already. During Warren's Covid restrictions Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan and Penn State were interested in joining the SEC for competition for the season. The answer was, "No." We had our schedules set and the TV rights issues were an obstacle. If the SEC had been very interested in establishing a closer relationship we would have done it.

My objection is you said Sankey would love to plant the SEC flag in Big 10 territory. That's BS! You do realize that if Michigan and Ohio State wanted to join the SEC that would mean that college football nationwide had gone to hell in a handbasket, right? Nobody wants that scenario, nor do they want a scenario where the top 6 of the SEC joins the Big 10. Why? Because our money is built upon rivalry. Absorb them all and the spirit of rivalry is destroyed.

I admitted in my post that if Ohio State insisted on joining that we would take the money, but nobody would be joyful on that day and by taking them the regional brand of the SEC and the Northwestern brand of Ohio State would both be weakened. They know it and we know it.

When Oklahoma and Texas joined the SEC 2 of the last 3 major value additions were removed from the board at a time when the SEC had a 1.7 billion dollar value lead on the Big 10. Those two together were worth 2.13 billion more in value. Notre Dame is worth .928 billion in value. Not even adding Notre Dame and Florida State which is .390 billion in value catches them up.

The realignment game is over and the SEC will not be caught. There are no two additions on the board that net anyone 2 billion in value, let alone the nearly 3.8 billion needed to equal the SEC's holdings.

The fact that the Big 10 expanded into the PAC 12, their oldest and most trusted ally, is indicative of weakness, not strength!

SEC presidents know this. If expanding with Florida State and Kansas to 18 the SEC adds nearly another .9 billion to its value. Kansas is worth according to the WSJ, .528 billion. That's why I raise the Jayhawks. Combine their brand with Kentucky's and you have the #1 and #2 most valuable hoops brands in the nation in terms of generating commercial revenue. Thanks to Missouri and Oklahoma the taking of the Jayhawks makes sense within the regional concept of realignment and quite frankly Kansas is much more valuable to the SEC than it is to the Big 10 which is why they aren't in the Big 10.

Make no mistake the Big 10 holds two of the finest brands in the nation (top 3 most years) with Ohio State and Michigan. Penn State is quite credible being in the top 10. But the SEC has 5 of the top 10 now and a majority of the top 20. If it added Florida State who is currently 10th the SEC would have 6 of the top 10 and Notre Dame as an independent is the 7th and the Big 10 would have 3. Next would be Auburn followed by Iowa. People don't think about Iowa being the 4th most valuable school in the Big 10 but they are.

The Big 10 is now expanding like it is to try to cobble together and lineup which remains competitive with the SEC.

The SEC isn't going to chase fool's gold to try to match territory because the most valuable schools, and the best synergy for business is right here in the expanded Southeast and everyone in the industry knows it. And that is why Sankey, and the SEC presidents are only interested in protecting turf and not interested in having a flag planted anywhere but in the greater South.

BTW: This is why I compile lists of relevant statistics. Do the math and these matters are no longer a mystery. The Big 10 wants Notre Dame (best remaining value addition) and FSU (largest available percentage of a market over 20 million). The talk is just the B.S. necessary to make a move based on dollars. Why F.S.U. and Kansas? Best remaining values and best market block, and the best cover for a weakness comes by adding these two. Clemson is a lateral move, but a good brand value multiplier. North Carolina and Virginia are medium market additions.

(01-07-2024 03:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-07-2024 03:29 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-07-2024 03:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-07-2024 01:36 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I was just sitting around thinking about FSU, and it got me back to something that I've cogitated upon here and there over the past couple of years. We all know that there's a geographic component to the P2, and we all know that in a perfect world Sankey would love to drive an SEC flag into B1G country and Petitti would love to drive a B1G flag into SEC country. However, what about the member institutions?

The way I see it, there are only a few B1G schools that the SEC would even consider, and there are only a few SEC schools that the B1G would even consider. The problem with most of them is that very strong historical ties bind them to their current Conference, and nothing short of a 10 on the Richter scale would ever get them to seriously consider a move.

To wit:

B1G schools that the SEC would like but would not consider a move:
tOSU
Michigan

Those 2 are the big enchiladas, and peeling off either would signal a move to the P1. However, why would they leave? They get to dominate a true "Power" Conference in football right now, and they'd be unlikely to do so in the SEC. They also view the B1G (correctly in my view) as a conference that they had a whole lot to do with assembling. The only way they'd leave would be to help form a new P1, again joining on the ground floor and having a whole lot of input.

SEC schools that the B1G would like but would not consider a move:
Florida
Texas A&M
Georgia
Alabama

The first 2 are big Brands and AAU, and we have geography on our side, and the latter 2 leaving would start the B1G down the path to becoming the P1. However, everyone except A&M is a founding SEC member, and A&M would rather swap Reveille for Bevo as our mascot than leave the SEC.

That leaves a few schools that are desirable to both Conferences and might consider a move:

Nebraska
Penn St
Texas
USC

I'll discuss those 1 at a time:

1. Nebraska was desperate to get out of the Big 12 back in 2010. They knew Texas and others were giving sexy glances to the Pac, and they knew that they'd be happier in the B1G. Sure, the B1G hazed the crap out of them when they joined, but the hazing is over and they have every reason to expect that Good Times are on the horizon. Academically and culturally, they're more at home in the B1G. The waters have been muddied a bit with Missouri and now OU in the SEC, so I wouldn't say "never" here, but Nebraska is closer to the heart of the B1G than they are to the heart of the SEC, their travel is better in the B1G, and their Academicians are far happier in the B1G. It would take a LOT to get them to consider a move.

2. Penn St: I talk about them a lot as a prospective SEC member, but they have even more reason to be loyal to the B1G than Nebraska does. Like Nebraska, they're much closer to Rosemont than they are to Birmingham, and in PSU's darkest hour, the B1G stood by their side. Sure, they got a HUGE punishment, but the B1G could have voted to expel them and did not do so. PSU also is generally in the conversation at or near the top of the B1G, they don't need a move to have success on the field. Again, I wouldn't say "never", but the odds are even lower of PSU moving than of Nebraska.

3. Texas: They were always going to the SEC. The money's roughly the same as in the B1G, the travel is FAR better, the odds of winning Titles are better, and the Academics are acceptable to them now that A&M and Missouri are fully integrated. The Pac was always going to entail significantly more travel, the B1G would be even worse, while the SEC is very nearly the same amount of travel as the Big 12 has been for the past several decades. Never say never with them, however, and they're not as solidly in the SEC camp as Nebraska and PSU are in the B1G camp, but they've made their choice.

4. USC: more like Texas above, just from the B1G angle, they'd probably consider the SEC, but the B1G is a better fit. Somewhat better travel b/c of their old Pac friends moving along with them to the B1G, and they have VERY strong historical ties to the B1G. The Academic and cultural fit is also ideal. Would they ever consider an SEC move? I mean, maybe, but with the pseudo merger of the top of the Pac with the B1G, it would probably take something earthshaking to get them to even consider it. Using Frank's original B1G ranking of desirable adds, USC is a perfect 100 for the B1G. https://frankthetank.org/2009/12/27/the-...of-orange/

So, the "desirable and at least theoretically possible" schools are all somewhere between a firm no and a "not in a million years".

There are a few schools on the periphery that are sometimes discussed, mostly Missouri and again Nebraska, but the B1G doesn't want Missouri and Nebraska doesn't want the SEC.

Looking at all of the above, the biggest thing that I see is that all of the Big Brands in both Conferences greatly prefer their current Conference, and if any of us found ourselves in the other, we'd always accept an invite from our true "preferred" Conference. Ie, if USC had joined the SEC b/c the B1G wasn't interested, they'd accept a future B1G invite in a heartbeat. If A&M had joined the B1G for some strange reason back in 2011, we'd have still jumped at a future SEC invite. Texas just looked at all their available options and decided that the SEC was the right move for them. And if FSU accepts a B1G invite b/c they can't get an SEC invite today, they'd still jump at a future SEC invite. Ditto for Clemson.

The only 2 schools that are theoretically acceptable to both the B1G and SEC, and could go either way, are UNC and Miami. Both of them have big-enough Brands, both have the Academics for the B1G, and both could fit in either Conference. The next, and possibly final, battle between the SEC and B1G won't be over FSU or Clemson, but rather over UNC and Miami.

Where in the hell can you back up that statement? Sankey has repeatedly said that the SEC wants to remain regional and protect rivalries. The SEC has the best national viewership and is still regional. Why? Top to bottom we offer a better competitiveness in college football than any other conference, with only the old Big 12 having near the same depth? The SEC presidents want to remain regional! There is no disunity on this point. If Ohio State applied, would we turn them down? No! They are contiguous and in their case the money would demand inclusion. But why in the heck would Ohio State want to do that? The SEC will not seek them out because it is not in our plan. If Notre Dame applied, they would be accepted too. But what do we have in common except for the love of the color Green, cash green to be specific.

The SEC has the best national audience, the most recruits and our non-media revenue dwarfs on average per school the Big 10's non-media revenue, which is why they like to talk about "media" revenue only, and I insist that we talk about "all" revenue. We have what they no longer have, cohesion. We'll play that hand! It is, has been, and will be a winner.

Tell me with a straight face that Sankey would spurn tOSU, PSU or Michigan. Nebraska can be viewed as contested as they've been in a conference with 4 SEC schools and they're adjacent to an SEC state.

Notice that I didn't say that Sankey would like to pick just any ole' B1G school. I specifically talked about schools that could make sense in the SEC, and also would weaken the B1G by leaving.

He kind of spurned them already. During Warren's Covid restrictions Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan and Penn State were interested in joining the SEC for competition for the season. The answer was, "No." We had our schedules set and the TV rights issues were an obstacle. If the SEC had been very interested in establishing a closer relationship we would have done it.

My objection is you said Sankey would love to plant the SEC flag in Big 10 territory. That's BS! You do realize that if Michigan and Ohio State wanted to join the SEC that would mean that college football nationwide had gone to hell in a handbasket, right? Nobody wants that scenario, nor do they want a scenario where the top 6 of the SEC joins the Big 10. Why? Because our money is built upon rivalry. Absorb them all and the spirit of rivalry is destroyed.

I admitted in my post that if Ohio State insisted on joining that we would take the money, but nobody would be joyful on that day and by taking them the regional brand of the SEC and the Northwestern brand of Ohio State would both be weakened. They know it and we know it.

When Oklahoma and Texas joined the SEC 2 of the last 3 major value additions were removed from the board at a time when the SEC had a 1.5 billion dollar value lead on the Big 10. Those two together were worth 2.3 billion more in value. Notre Dame is worth .928 billion in value. Not even adding Notre Dame and Florida State which is .390 billion in value catches them up.

The realignment game is over and the SEC will not be caught. There are no two additions on the board that net anyone 2 billion in value, let alone the nearly 3.8 billion needed to equal the SEC's holdings.

The fact that the Big 10 expanded into the PAC 12, their oldest and most trusted ally, is indicative of weakness, not strength!

SEC presidents know this. If expanding with Florida State and Kansas to 18 the SEC adds nearly another .9 billion to its value. Kansas is worth according to the WSJ, .528 billion. That's why I raise the Jayhawks. Combine their brand with Kentucky's and you have the #1 and #2 most valuable hoops brands in the nation in terms of generating commercial revenue. Thanks to Missouri and Oklahoma the taking of the Jayhawks makes sense within the regional concept of realignment and quite frankly Kansas is much more valuable to the SEC than it is to the Big 10 which is why they aren't in the Big 10.

Make no mistake the Big 10 holds two of the finest brands in the nation (top 3 most years) with Ohio State and Michigan. Penn State is quite credible being in the top 10. But the SEC has 5 of the top 10 now and a majority of the top 20. If it added Florida State who is currently 10th the SEC would have 6 of the top 10 and Notre Dame as an independent is the 7th and the Big 10 would have 3. Next would be Auburn followed by Iowa. People don't think about Iowa being the 4th most valuable school in the Big 10 but they are.

The Big 10 is now expanding like it is to try to cobble together and lineup which remains competitive with the SEC.

The SEC isn't going to chase fool's gold to try to match territory because the most valuable schools, and the best synergy for business is right here in the expanded Southeast and everyone in the industry knows it. And that is why Sankey, and the SEC presidents are only interested in protecting turf and not interested in having a flag planted anywhere but in the greater South.

BTW: This is why I compile lists of relevant statistics. Do the math and these matters are no longer a mystery. The Big 10 wants Notre Dame (best remaining value addition) and FSU (largest available percentage of a market over 20 million). The talk is just the B.S. necessary to make a move based on dollars. Why F.S.U. and Kansas? Best remaining values and best market block, and the best cover for a weakness comes by adding these two. Clemson is a lateral move, but a good brand value multiplier. North Carolina and Virginia are medium market additions.

Ding ding ding!

The Big Ten abandoned every one of its sacred principles to keep up with the SEC. The SEC had the best game plan from day 1.

The Big Ten is essentially cobbling together the often talked about and proposed “airplane conference”, except they’re doing it with Olympic sports as well.

I do hope the SEC (or ESPN) takes FSU off the table. Then the Big Ten is stuck banking on little Miami (not Southern) and a post-Dabo Clemson if they want to penetrate the southeast.

BTW, all those Big Ten trannies down here’s offspring will be singing “Rocky Top” and “Hark The Sound” soon enough!

I actually think once the P2 settles their membership, we will see realignment grind to a halt. Once there is no one left for them to cherry pick that adds value, there’s no more chain reaction realignments. The P2 will have their membership, the M2s will have theirs, then the G5s, and so on. If no on be is ever getting called up, then there isn’t backfill.

(01-07-2024 05:27 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I actually think once the P2 settles their membership, we will see realignment grind to a halt. Once there is no one left for them to cherry pick that adds value, there’s no more chain reaction realignments. The P2 will have their membership, the M2s will have theirs, then the G5s, and so on. If no on be is ever getting called up, then there isn’t backfill.

First rule of media driven realignment: it never grinds to a halt.

(01-07-2024 05:46 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(01-07-2024 05:27 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I actually think once the P2 settles their membership, we will see realignment grind to a halt. Once there is no one left for them to cherry pick that adds value, there’s no more chain reaction realignments. The P2 will have their membership, the M2s will have theirs, then the G5s, and so on. If no on be is ever getting called up, then there isn’t backfill.

First rule of media driven realignment: it never grinds to a halt.

It will rest with a separate upper tier. Then we'll find out how long the peace lasts.

(01-07-2024 05:46 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(01-07-2024 05:27 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I actually think once the P2 settles their membership, we will see realignment grind to a halt. Once there is no one left for them to cherry pick that adds value, there’s no more chain reaction realignments. The P2 will have their membership, the M2s will have theirs, then the G5s, and so on. If no on be is ever getting called up, then there isn’t backfill.

First rule of media driven realignment: it never grinds to a halt.

What’s going to drive realignment?

If the P2 are at a point where there’s no one left that can add to the bottom line, they aren’t going to add anyone.

The M2 aren’t just going to add and add. They too will come to a point where there’s no incentive to grow.

We’ll reach a point where we just see an occasional school move around for a better geographic fit or a more elite academic league. There might be a younger athletic program that climbs up from D2 to entry level D1 or from an entry level D1 to a more established league but it will be infrequent.

(01-07-2024 03:35 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Nobody in the SEC is worried about Texas turning into a disruptive force. Texas, along with A&M, built the SWC. Texas, along with A&M, OU, and Nebraska, built the Big 12. Texas is joining the SEC over 90 years after it was founded. They're not making the rules, they're learning them. If anyone in the SEC was worried about inviting them then there would have been a whole lot more drama than one rogue A&M Regent leaking details to the press.

I tell people this all the time, Texas is about 2/3 A&M and 1/3 Cal. The SEC is happy with both parts, the Academics are a really nice feather in our cap and more A&M is a good thing for everyone!

So you're saying the Big 12 was more of a merger of the Big 8 and SWC than an expansion of the Big 8 by 4? Felt more like an expansion to me and then the Texas four took over aided by the fact that Oklahoma switched sides to the Texas four instead of their old Big 8 brothers.

Could a similar thing happen in the SEC? Oklahoma and Texas are practically partners. Texas A&M and Texas might be adversaries now but have been on the same side throughout the SWC and Big 12 and would benefit if the SEC Championship Game was in Dallas as opposed to Atlanta and A&M doesn't have the history with the SEC, why wouldn't they want to side with Texas against the historical SEC schools? Arkansas has more history with the SEC but if you're talking about 90 years of history, 30 years is nothing and Arkansas has way more history with Texas and Texas A&M than with Alabama and Georgia and also would prefer a more Texas central SEC. Missouri doesn't have a long history with Texas, Oklahoma, and A&M but more history with them than with Alabama and Georgia. That's five schools already.

If Texas or the old SWC/Big 12 schools will change the power dynamic in the SEC away from the "original ten" like the Texas schools were in the Big 12, they will need an original ten to flip to their side and LSU seems to be the obvious choice. But LSU will be way harder to flip than Oklahoma was in the Big 12 days, the Texas-Oklahoma rivalry predates the Big 12. LSU-Texas A&M is on a decade now but LSU isn't going to choose A&M over Alabama now.

The SEC is lucky that Florida State was the sacrificial lamb to get Alabama into the Playoff and not Texas or there would already be a riff between the "old school" and "new school" before Texas even got there. I'm pretty sure Texas isn't going to accept "Alabama always gets their way" in the SEC and they're definitely not going to accept second class citizenship behind the original ten.

(01-07-2024 06:19 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(01-07-2024 03:35 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Nobody in the SEC is worried about Texas turning into a disruptive force. Texas, along with A&M, built the SWC. Texas, along with A&M, OU, and Nebraska, built the Big 12. Texas is joining the SEC over 90 years after it was founded. They're not making the rules, they're learning them. If anyone in the SEC was worried about inviting them then there would have been a whole lot more drama than one rogue A&M Regent leaking details to the press.

I tell people this all the time, Texas is about 2/3 A&M and 1/3 Cal. The SEC is happy with both parts, the Academics are a really nice feather in our cap and more A&M is a good thing for everyone!

So you're saying the Big 12 was more of a merger of the Big 8 and SWC than an expansion of the Big 8 by 4? Felt more like an expansion to me and then the Texas four took over aided by the fact that Oklahoma switched sides to the Texas four instead of their old Big 8 brothers.

Could a similar thing happen in the SEC? Oklahoma and Texas are practically partners. Texas A&M and Texas might be adversaries now but have been on the same side throughout the SWC and Big 12 and would benefit if the SEC Championship Game was in Dallas as opposed to Atlanta and A&M doesn't have the history with the SEC, why wouldn't they want to side with Texas against the historical SEC schools? Arkansas has more history with the SEC but if you're talking about 90 years of history, 30 years is nothing and Arkansas has way more history with Texas and Texas A&M than with Alabama and Georgia and also would prefer a more Texas central SEC. Missouri doesn't have a long history with Texas, Oklahoma, and A&M but more history with them than with Alabama and Georgia. That's five schools already.

If Texas or the old SWC/Big 12 schools will change the power dynamic in the SEC away from the "original ten" like the Texas schools were in the Big 12, they will need an original ten to flip to their side and LSU seems to be the obvious choice. But LSU will be way harder to flip than Oklahoma was in the Big 12 days, the Texas-Oklahoma rivalry predates the Big 12. LSU-Texas A&M is on a decade now but LSU isn't going to choose A&M over Alabama now.

The SEC is lucky that Florida State was the sacrificial lamb to get Alabama into the Playoff and not Texas or there would already be a riff between the "old school" and "new school" before Texas even got there. I'm pretty sure Texas isn't going to accept "Alabama always gets their way" in the SEC and they're definitely not going to accept second class citizenship behind the original ten.

Nah, the SEC was unlucky that a trapped pass on 4th down in the CCG was called completed on the field and not reviewed. If it had been Georgia would have won and FSU would have been in the CFP as well as Georgia and Michigan and one of Texas and Washington would have been left out. It was shown to be a trapped ball so a correct call in that game changes all of it.

For now, yes. There is stability till there isn’t. I can see some scenarios that a p1 forms. Don’t think it’s in the next five or even ten years though (admittedly I’ve been wrong before)

No. I see chaos. You have too bulls in the same pen. Texas and Texas A&M. Caesar and Pompeii. One will rise, the other will fall. Only natural. See their big12 and SWC histories, chaos. Always chaos.

I’d predict, instead of expansion, the SEC will contract. The conference is its peak in revenue and composition. Too many majors in one conference.

Not sure which one leaves,I’d bet it’s Texas, dragging a couple of schools with it.