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Trends in ACC TV Revenue, 2009-24 (est.)
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GTFletch Offline
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Trends in ACC TV Revenue, 2009-24 (est.)
Great Read by Hokie Mark: Is the ACC locked into the same T1 media rights fees every year until 2036, or does it continue to grow annually? This question comes up from time to time because new rumors keep surfacing to the effect that "although the ACC rights fees used to escalate, they don't any more"... so we have to go back to the spreadsheet to see if it's true or not. Here's the TV revenue data from 2009 through 2024 (projected):

Link
https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2024/...4-est.html

Notes:
2024 - Pro rata for 3 new schools, redistributed

2023 - Estimate provided by UNC and NC State

2020 - Notre Dame was a football-playing member

2019 - The ACC Network was launched

2018 - ESPN paid a penalty for not launching the ACCN on time.

2012 - T1 contract renegotiated after adding Pitt and Syracuse; another small increase was given for the scheduling agreement with Notre Dame, as well as for the Grant of Rights.



Just so everybody understands:
1) That translates into a minimum 4% growth per year, plus other bumps like the ACCN, renegotiated contract in 2012, etc.

2) The projected TV payout for 2024 (except for SMU, Cal, and Stanford) is $38.4M each on average.

3) Incentives kick in next year, too, so some will make more, some less than $38.4M from TV.
(This post was last modified: 01-19-2024 10:17 AM by GTFletch.)
01-19-2024 10:16 AM
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Hokie Mark Online
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Exclamation RE: Trends in ACC TV Revenue, 2009-24 (est.)
Some of you need a picture.
01-19-2024 03:09 PM
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SouthernConfBoy Offline
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RE: Trends in ACC TV Revenue, 2009-24 (est.)
(01-19-2024 03:09 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Some of you need a picture.

Great chart.

I think another thing that baffles folks is that whatever the SEC or B10 say is the total value of the contract, it is not the annual payout off the bat. Like our contracts there is a ratchet. So the new B10 deal that starts to pay them began this fall. Here is the article:


Adam Rittenberg, ESPN Senior Writer
Aug 18, 2022, 09:30 AM ET
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The Big Ten has completed a new seven-year media rights agreement with Fox, CBS and NBC that is set to bring in more than $7 billion to one of the nation's most powerful athletic conferences.

The deal will begin July 1, 2023, and run through the end of the 2029-30 athletic year. Specific terms were not disclosed, but a financial windfall won't come immediately, according to media sources. The CBS payout in Year 1 of the agreement is lower since it still will be carrying SEC games during the 2023 season and will air only seven Big Ten contests that fall. But the Big Ten's per-school distribution will turn upward in Year 2 of the deal, when new members USC and UCLA enter the conference. Revenue will rise substantially beginning in Year 3.

The Big Ten is projected to eventually distribute $80 million to $100 million per year to each of its 16 members. According to USA Today, the league distributed $54.3 million to most of its members during the most recent fiscal year (2019-20) not impacted by the coronavirus pandemic.


Now a seven year deal for 1 Billion pays out as follows:

Year 1 700 M
Year 2 800 M
Year 3 900 M
Year 4 1 B
Year 5 1.1 B
Year 6 1.2 B
Year 7 1.3 B

It takes about $30 M to run the league office according to their 990.

That gives them $42 M per school for this year for the TV contract. FY 24.

Going forward they are paying about $100 M to Oregon, Washington, and the League Office. So just TV will pay the 16:

FY 25 38 M
FY 26 43 M
FY 27 50 M
FY 28 57 M
FY 29 64 M
FY 30 71 M

FY 31 New Contract with 18 schools instead of 16. Now let's compare between the B10 and ACC:

FY 25 38 M vs 40 M (Despite B10 new contract, ACC is being paid for three more schools but is only paying out the equivalent of .6 to the 3.
FY 26 43 M vs 42 M (there's that pesky 4-5% again)
FY 27 50 M vs 44 M (B10 pulling ahead)
FY 28 57 M vs 47 M (A $10 million advantage)
FY 29 64 vs vs 50 M (A $14 million advantage)
FY 30 71 vs vs 53M (An $18 million advantage)

Now if there are no "look ins" and flat growth of the ACCN then the ACC really has a problem starting in FY 29. Perhaps the new "performance pay" closes that gap.

But what is amazingly stupid on behalf of FSU is the notion that they can compete financially with Texas, Bama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, and Oklahoma with a football stadium that has only 80% of the capacity of those 6. What has been demonstrated time and again over the last 40 is that FSU fans only support a "winner". It will take 10 wins to make the playoff, it will take 11 or 12 to win the SEC title. The suicide strategy of FSU is remarkable.
01-19-2024 05:57 PM
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SouthernConfBoy Offline
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RE: Trends in ACC TV Revenue, 2009-24 (est.)
Oh and all this presupposes the NCAA continues to steal the basketball tourney money.
01-19-2024 05:58 PM
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Hokie Mark Online
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RE: Trends in ACC TV Revenue, 2009-24 (est.)
(01-19-2024 05:58 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  Oh and all this presupposes the NCAA continues to steal the basketball tourney money.

One thing you guys need to understand: as long as the Big Ten has a $$$ advantage, they will do everything in the power to PREVENT the ACC from getting more basketball money. The last thing they want is a level playing field because they know they would fall to 4th out of P4 without their advantage.

To a lesser extent that also applies to the SEC. I don't think they are afraid of the ACC the way the Big Ten leadership seems to be, but they don't mind holding the financial high ground, either.
01-19-2024 07:01 PM
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GTFletch Offline
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RE: Trends in ACC TV Revenue, 2009-24 (est.)
(01-19-2024 03:09 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Some of you need a picture.

Here is Georgia Tech's breakdown conference distributions through the years!

22- $37.5M
21- $37.09M
20- $31.8M
19- $28.9M
18- $29.8M
17- $29.1M
16- $24.9M
15- $27.2M
14- $22.5M
13- $19.7M
12- $18.9M
11- $13.8M
10- $13.5M
09- $13.3M
08- $11.6M
07- $10.4M
06- $10.2M
05- $9.6M


Link
https://knightnewhousedata.org/fbs/acc/g...he_money-1

UGA (SEC) breakdown conference distributions through the years!

22- $58.6M
21- $81.5M (Loan from future TV earnings)
20- $52.5M
19- $53.4M
18- $51.7M
17- $48M
16- $44.2M
15- $35M
14- $27.2M
13- $29.1M
12- $27.7M
11- $27.9M
10- $25.5M
09- $18.1M
08- $16.9M
07- $14.6M
06- $17.6M
05- $13.9M

Link
https://knightnewhousedata.org/fbs/sec/u...he_money-1
(This post was last modified: 01-20-2024 04:30 PM by GTFletch.)
01-20-2024 07:42 AM
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Gitanole Offline
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RE: Trends in ACC TV Revenue, 2009-24 (est.)
(01-19-2024 05:57 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  ....
But what is amazingly stupid on behalf of FSU is the notion that they can compete financially with Texas, Bama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, and Oklahoma with a football stadium that has only 80% of the capacity of those 6. What has been demonstrated time and again over the last 40 is that FSU fans only support a "winner". It will take 10 wins to make the playoff, it will take 11 or 12 to win the SEC title. The suicide strategy of FSU is remarkable.

Yeah, silly ACC-champion us, thinking we could compete in any really important conference...

07-coffee3
01-23-2024 11:48 PM
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GTFletch Offline
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RE: Trends in ACC TV Revenue, 2009-24 (est.)
(01-23-2024 11:48 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  
(01-19-2024 05:57 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  ....
But what is amazingly stupid on behalf of FSU is the notion that they can compete financially with Texas, Bama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, and Oklahoma with a football stadium that has only 80% of the capacity of those 6. What has been demonstrated time and again over the last 40 is that FSU fans only support a "winner". It will take 10 wins to make the playoff, it will take 11 or 12 to win the SEC title. The suicide strategy of FSU is remarkable.

Yeah, silly ACC-champion us, thinking we could compete in any really important conference...

07-coffee3
The real reason why FSU is leaving the Conf.

In 2021-2022 the ACC was paid $443.7M by ESPN as part of their TV contract.
[https://www.cbs17.com/sports/unc-nc-state-each-receive-40m-of-accs-record-617m-in-revenue-tax-documents-show/]

At the same time the ACC was already doing a little bit of unequal revenue sharing:
[Just not as big as what is coming in 25-26]

$41.3M Pitt
$40.4M Virginia Tech
$40.3M Louisville
$40.2M NC State
$40.1M N Carolina
$39.7M Clemson
$39.4M Boston Coll.
$39.3M Wake Forest
$38.9M Miami
$38.9M Virginia
$38.8M Duke
$38.6M Florida State
$38.3M Syracuse
$37.9M Georgia Tech
$17.4M Notre Dame
Avg Distribution $39.4M

Florida State opposed the competitive unequal revenue sharing and wanted an unequal slice even if the sucked. They feel there brand is bigger than the ACC and proposed unequal revenue sharing based on Brand. They did not get enough support from other ACC universities and want out. However they do not want to pay like Texas and Oklahoma did. They want to try and negotiate, we shall see if a judge forces the ACC to negotiate with FSU or not.

SEC has said they do not want FSU and so it appears they need to join the Big10 or take a rights fee cut as an Indy or XII mbr.


Good Luck Nole Fans, I hope your tantrum works out for you all!
(This post was last modified: 01-24-2024 08:20 AM by GTFletch.)
01-24-2024 08:18 AM
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orangefan Offline
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RE: Trends in ACC TV Revenue, 2009-24 (est.)
(01-24-2024 08:18 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  
(01-23-2024 11:48 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  
(01-19-2024 05:57 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  ....
But what is amazingly stupid on behalf of FSU is the notion that they can compete financially with Texas, Bama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, and Oklahoma with a football stadium that has only 80% of the capacity of those 6. What has been demonstrated time and again over the last 40 is that FSU fans only support a "winner". It will take 10 wins to make the playoff, it will take 11 or 12 to win the SEC title. The suicide strategy of FSU is remarkable.

Yeah, silly ACC-champion us, thinking we could compete in any really important conference...

07-coffee3
The real reason why FSU is leaving the Conf.

In 2021-2022 the ACC was paid $443.7M by ESPN as part of their TV contract.
[https://www.cbs17.com/sports/unc-nc-state-each-receive-40m-of-accs-record-617m-in-revenue-tax-documents-show/]

At the same time the ACC was already doing a little bit of unequal revenue sharing:
[Just not as big as what is coming in 25-26]

$41.3M Pitt
$40.4M Virginia Tech
$40.3M Louisville
$40.2M NC State
$40.1M N Carolina
$39.7M Clemson
$39.4M Boston Coll.
$39.3M Wake Forest
$38.9M Miami
$38.9M Virginia
$38.8M Duke
$38.6M Florida State
$38.3M Syracuse
$37.9M Georgia Tech
$17.4M Notre Dame
Avg Distribution $39.4M

Florida State opposed the competitive unequal revenue sharing and wanted an unequal slice even if the sucked. They feel there brand is bigger than the ACC and proposed unequal revenue sharing based on Brand. They did not get enough support from other ACC universities and want out. However they do not want to pay like Texas and Oklahoma did. They want to try and negotiate, we shall see if a judge forces the ACC to negotiate with FSU or not.

SEC has said they do not want FSU and so it appears they need to join the Big10 or take a rights fee cut as an Indy or XII mbr.


Good Luck Nole Fans, I hope your tantrum works out for you all!

FSU did not play in a bowl game in 2021-22, which is why they received a smaller distribution. I believe that the difference in distributions is primarily related to reimbursement for travel related bowl expenses.
01-24-2024 09:43 AM
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Garrettabc Online
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RE: Trends in ACC TV Revenue, 2009-24 (est.)
Teams that don't contribute to post season should not get as big of a distribution. It forces schools to evaluate themselves and do the necessary things to get better.
01-24-2024 09:49 AM
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Gitanole Offline
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RE: Trends in ACC TV Revenue, 2009-24 (est.)
(01-24-2024 08:18 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  ....
SEC has said they do not want FSU
....

07-coffee3
01-25-2024 12:15 PM
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