(03-01-2024 12:35 PM)AzonTheKid Wrote:  

(03-01-2024 10:24 AM)LaBradfordsTWill Wrote:  The ACC will be able to raid the Big 12 when the time comes. North Carolina politics has just made it much harder for UNC to leave the conference and as long as UNC is in the ACC, it will be more desirable to schools than the Big 12. On a side note, I wouldn't be surprised if Oregon State and Washington State aren't still in discussions with the ACC. The ACC probably wouldn't even need to raid the Big 12 unless 4 or more schools in fact do leave. South Florida will backfill FSU. After that, it is just who wants out of the Big 12 bad enough.

What gives you the idea that the ACC will be able to raid the Big 12? If/when FSU leaves they won't be alone. They'll take Clemson, Miami, and some combination of UVA/VT, and UNC/NCST. There will be nothing to draw teams to the ACC from the Big 12. So what you're saying is laughable.

What would the ACC have to offer any school in the Big 12? I could see the argument of trying to poach Cincy, WVU and UCF but at that point we can just pluck schools from the ACC to help satisfy their travel needs.

WVU, UCF, and Cincy would most likely jump at a chance to be in the ACC because of the travel and preserving regional rivalries. The ACCN assures the ACC will payout slightly better as well. Of course if UNC, FSU, Clemson, and Virginia leave the ACC will be on shakier ground.

ACC loses schools, USF & Conn would replace NC & FSU

ACC would look at 5 the AAU members in B-12 to pair with Cal & Stanford

Cinn & UCF would jump, WVA has no shot

Tulane only shot is a buffer out west like SMU

(03-01-2024 02:31 PM)LaBradfordsTWill Wrote:  

(03-01-2024 12:35 PM)AzonTheKid Wrote:  

(03-01-2024 10:24 AM)LaBradfordsTWill Wrote:  The ACC will be able to raid the Big 12 when the time comes. North Carolina politics has just made it much harder for UNC to leave the conference and as long as UNC is in the ACC, it will be more desirable to schools than the Big 12. On a side note, I wouldn't be surprised if Oregon State and Washington State aren't still in discussions with the ACC. The ACC probably wouldn't even need to raid the Big 12 unless 4 or more schools in fact do leave. South Florida will backfill FSU. After that, it is just who wants out of the Big 12 bad enough.

What gives you the idea that the ACC will be able to raid the Big 12? If/when FSU leaves they won't be alone. They'll take Clemson, Miami, and some combination of UVA/VT, and UNC/NCST. There will be nothing to draw teams to the ACC from the Big 12. So what you're saying is laughable.

What would the ACC have to offer any school in the Big 12? I could see the argument of trying to poach Cincy, WVU and UCF but at that point we can just pluck schools from the ACC to help satisfy their travel needs.

WVU, UCF, and Cincy would most likely jump at a chance to be in the ACC because of the travel and preserving regional rivalries. The ACCN assures the ACC will payout slightly better as well. Of course if UNC, FSU, Clemson, and Virginia leave the ACC will be on shakier ground.

LIKE ^^^

(03-01-2024 09:44 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  There seems that there is no guarantees that Big 12 get any ACC schools. Their payouts in media rights is about the same. ESPN could move the eastern parts of Big 12 and AAC teams into the ACC when they move some of the top schools from the ACC to the SEC. Baylor and Kansas could go to the ACC as well along with Rice and Tulane. UConn, UMass and Buffalo can also slide into the ACC. Stony Brook may as well if they move up.

Big 12 can get Memphis and UTSA from the AAC, and go get Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Colorado State to make the Big 12 regional. Adding 4 western schools would help solidify the western branch with Fresno State, San Diego State, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU, Colorado, Colorado State and Boise State.
Central would be Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, UTSA, Houston, Memphis. Insert Missouri State, Arkansas State, La.-Louisiana or North Dakota State to make 16. NDSU is already an affiliate to men's wrestling.

hard to see B12 going west without Or State of W state.

(03-01-2024 10:03 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(03-01-2024 09:59 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  

(03-01-2024 09:44 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  There seems that there is no guarantees that Big 12 get any ACC schools. Their payouts in media rights is about the same. ESPN could move the eastern parts of Big 12 and AAC teams into the ACC when they move some of the top schools from the ACC to the SEC. Baylor and Kansas could go to the ACC as well along with Rice and Tulane. UConn, UMass and Buffalo can also slide into the ACC. Stony Brook may as well if they move up.

Big 12 can get Memphis and UTSA from the AAC, and go get Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Colorado State to make the Big 12 regional. Adding 4 western schools would help solidify the western branch with Fresno State, San Diego State, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU, Colorado, Colorado State and Boise State.
Central would be Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, UTSA, Houston, Memphis. Insert Missouri State, Arkansas State, La.-Louisiana or North Dakota State to make 16. NDSU is already an affiliate to men's wrestling.

If UTSA and Colorado State are in 'the best of the rest' then no one is being 'gotten'.

UTSA was the third best team going into the last week of play last year in a three way tie for first in the conference.

You're over counting on-field performance again.

(03-01-2024 10:56 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-01-2024 10:24 AM)LaBradfordsTWill Wrote:  The ACC will be able to raid the Big 12 when the time comes. North Carolina politics has just made it much harder for UNC to leave the conference and as long as UNC is in the ACC, it will be more desirable to schools than the Big 12. On a side note, I wouldn't be surprised if Oregon State and Washington State aren't still in discussions with the ACC. The ACC probably wouldn't even need to raid the Big 12 unless 4 or more schools in fact do leave. South Florida will backfill FSU. After that, it is just who wants out of the Big 12 bad enough.

I don’t think anyone is exactly champing at the bit to leave either of the M2 and pay $100m for a lateral move. The ACC might stick together and only lose a couple schools, but that wouldn’t enable them to raid the Big 12. It would, however, make it unlikely that the big 12 could raid the ACC, and it would help to greatly stabilize the entire P4 for now.

This seems like the best answer.

(03-01-2024 12:02 PM)kundrky Wrote:  I like a 'best of the rest' M1 league with ACC and B12 leftovers. Something like three divisions of eight teams can allow for regional play. And the leftover schools are probably a big enough draw to stay afloat (vs G5 conferences), especially if the ACC network stays in place over the remainder.

West: Wash St, Ore St, Cal, Stanford, Utah, BYU, Arizona, Arizona St
Central: Iowa St., Kansas St., Okla St., Texas Tech, TCU, SMU, Baylor, Houston
East: Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, WVU, Cincinnati, Louisville, Wake Forest, UCF

At this tier, there's a lot of fungibility for P2 candidates (Stanford/Cal, ASU/UofA, Colorado, Kansas) but plenty of back-fills, if needed (UConn, USF, etc.).

Divisions could be called Big East, Big Eight, and Pac 8.

Why would the ACC or the Big 12 want to absorb any G5 schools? What benefit is it to them?

First off we need to limit it to tier 1 or tier 2 level of G5 schools in terms of resources. It doesn't matter if they had a good year or two, but whether they have the budgeting and resources to sustain at the higher level. The struggles of Houston, Cincy, UCF and BYU point out the difficulty of stepping up, and the need for deep pockets as NIL and employee athletes becomes ever greater.

From a pure budget perspective UConn alone is at P5 level, with Memphis, South Florida, Colorado State and Temple at the edge, San Diego State a tad lower. Tulane is often in the conversation due to deep pockets, but perhaps Tulsa and Rice (too low budget) could be included, as like SMU if they make the decision, they can pay for it. Liberty is another potential gangster, but a bit. After that the investment level is frankly too low. Oregon State needs to be included in the first tier at least for now, and Washington State perhaps in similar vein as San Diego State. WSU has a built up facility base, but without a power conference their base level of financial support is probably more similar to Fresno State than any power school; WSU has consistently been in the caboose of P5 budgets. Anyway that is the entire pool to draw from.

The Big 12 has absorbed it's entire expansion budget provided by ESPN and FOX. To add anyone else, it requires opening up the contract and presenting a value greater than $30M per year as an additive simply to break even, while improving the profile of the conference. Nobody out there is of the stature of Arizona, Utah or Colorado. The answer for the Big 12 absorbing is a no.

The ACC is different, because they have significant flight risk, especially with Florida State and possibly others like Miami, Clemson, North Carolina and once their NBC contract expires (aligned with the B1G media contract) Notre Dame. The ACC is contractually required to have 15 schools to avoid a possible ESPN look-in and downgrade. They added Stanford, Cal and SMU as insurance, bringing them to 18. But let's imagine a mass flight of all 5 schools I listed above, maybe even 6th throwing in Virginia. That is probably a worst case scenario, and very unlikely to come to pass. But if it did, Jim Williamson already said which schools would be looked at in their "long list": Rice, Tulane, South Florida and Memphis (maybe Tulsa). That is your entire plausible expansion list. Schools further west like Oregon State, San Diego State and Colorado State do not have a viable path right now. The MWC is as good as they can get. Note, if there is any ACC expansion the American will be neutered even further.

(03-01-2024 05:28 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Why would the ACC or the Big 12 want to absorb any G5 schools? What benefit is it to them?

First off we need to limit it to tier 1 or tier 2 level of G5 schools in terms of resources. It doesn't matter if they had a good year or two, but whether they have the budgeting and resources to sustain at the higher level. The struggles of Houston, Cincy, UCF and BYU point out the difficulty of stepping up, and the need for deep pockets as NIL and employee athletes becomes ever greater.

From a pure budget perspective UConn alone is at P5 level, with Memphis, South Florida, Colorado State and Temple at the edge, San Diego State a tad lower. Tulane is often in the conversation due to deep pockets, but perhaps Tulsa and Rice (too low budget) could be included, as like SMU if they make the decision, they can pay for it. Liberty is another potential gangster, but a bit. After that the investment level is frankly too low. Oregon State needs to be included in the first tier at least for now, and Washington State perhaps in similar vein as San Diego State. WSU has a built up facility base, but without a power conference their base level of financial support is probably more similar to Fresno State than any power school; WSU has consistently been in the caboose of P5 budgets. Anyway that is the entire pool to draw from.

The Big 12 has absorbed it's entire expansion budget provided by ESPN and FOX. To add anyone else, it requires opening up the contract and presenting a value greater than $30M per year as an additive simply to break even, while improving the profile of the conference. Nobody out there is of the stature of Arizona, Utah or Colorado. The answer for the Big 12 absorbing is a no.

The ACC is different, because they have significant flight risk, especially with Florida State and possibly others like Miami, Clemson, North Carolina and once their NBC contract expires (aligned with the B1G media contract) Notre Dame. The ACC is contractually required to have 15 schools to avoid a possible ESPN look-in and downgrade. They added Stanford, Cal and SMU as insurance, bringing them to 18. But let's imagine a mass flight of all 5 schools I listed above, maybe even 6th throwing in Virginia. That is probably a worst case scenario, and very unlikely to come to pass. But if it did, Jim Williamson already said which schools would be looked at in their "long list": Rice, Tulane, South Florida and Memphis (maybe Tulsa). That is your entire plausible expansion list. Schools further west like Oregon State, San Diego State and Colorado State do not have a viable path right now. The MWC is as good as they can get. Note, if there is any ACC expansion the American will be neutered even further.

With the 4 additions to the B12. SDSU/AFA/CSU/UNLV/Memphis are now the top G5s by revenue, not counting UCONN. Luckily for schools like SJSU and Hawaii the MW is well represented in the top G5 AD budgets and could lead to the MW being the BOR conf down the line instead of an exodus that hangs those two and WYO or Nevada out to dry.

NCAA Finances