(03-02-2024 10:54 AM)otown Wrote:  

(03-02-2024 09:47 AM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(03-02-2024 08:02 AM)otown Wrote:  Personally, I think many on here are too obsessed with the B1G and SEC having a blood battle with all the other conferences.

What do I think is gonna happen? The FSU drama will play out behind closed doors. Eventually they will get out and join the SEC. Once the price is set, another ACC team will leave to join as a partner for a similar fee. B1G may or may not offer another 2 to 4 teams in the ACC. The left overs will be bittersweet happy, because they will have a windfall of cash to hold them over through the next decade.

Now, the price to leave the ACC and my above scenario is all contingent on ESPN auto renewing. If not, it's PAC 2.0 because there are no longer GOR settlements. The leftover teams may find refuge in the Big 12, but I don't think FOX/ESPN give them full shares.

With that all being said, if no major realignment in the next 5 years, I think the 3:2 (SECB1G:Big12ACC) autobids will happen, but there will not be any auto byes for a conference, or if there are, it will be strictly on rankings.

Now as far as revenue, I think the P2 will get more than the M2, but I think people are greatly inflating how much more. My money is 5% more tops.

I just don't think the SEC/B1G have the stomach to blow it all up while having the major political fight against state flagship institutions who are academic peers, and in many cases, academic superiors with more political weight than themselves.

JR may think of the P2 as Napoleon out to conquer the world, but I look at them as more pragmatic in keeping it large to maximize profit without a war while getting small gains each step of the way.

That didn't stop the SEC from taking Oklahoma, and the BIG from taking Oregon, UCLA, and Washington

Texas was a huge get. Oklahoma, although they have a large fan following, rode Texas coattails into the SEC. Washington and Oregon were not even wanted by the B1G, they begged their way in taking smaller shares.

Personally, I don't even think FSU and Clemson bring enough money to the table to warrant the SEC taking them. That's just my opinion. Now people are talking about the ACC post mortem and placing Pittsburgh etc in the B1G? There is no such increased value to warrant a payout like that, especially already in their footprint.

Honestly, 60 to 75% of the teams in the B1G and SEC do not warrant their payouts. The remaining 25 to 40% warrant higher payouts.

Folks, this is where we are going and the only way I see this moving forward.

The SEC and B1G may continue expanding more and more. They may even take schools you would never imagine getting invited to a P2. However, each time a school is invited, they will take less and less pay, where the top schools will get any extra value they bring padded to their individual pay.

Where I think this is going is soon conferences will just be scheduling outfits and individual schools will negotiate their own TV deals.

The P2 want to possess all the prime timeslots. They need more inventory to do as such. In all likelihood, the B1G will not get all of it's ideal targets (nor will the SEC). Once folks start talking about doubling up in states beyond Florida/NC, Pitt easily has more to offer than the alternatives (Cal, 2nd Az team)... at least they can say they are PSU's only rival, one of UNDs buddies, and would cut down travel time. They could very easily be the B1G's 10th or 12th preference, but if the SEC takes 4 or 6 of the common targets or UND wants 2 or 3 buddies to accompany them, that still puts them in the running for a 24 team B1G.

(03-02-2024 11:35 AM)gwelymernans Wrote:  

(03-02-2024 10:54 AM)otown Wrote:  

(03-02-2024 09:47 AM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(03-02-2024 08:02 AM)otown Wrote:  Personally, I think many on here are too obsessed with the B1G and SEC having a blood battle with all the other conferences.

What do I think is gonna happen? The FSU drama will play out behind closed doors. Eventually they will get out and join the SEC. Once the price is set, another ACC team will leave to join as a partner for a similar fee. B1G may or may not offer another 2 to 4 teams in the ACC. The left overs will be bittersweet happy, because they will have a windfall of cash to hold them over through the next decade.

Now, the price to leave the ACC and my above scenario is all contingent on ESPN auto renewing. If not, it's PAC 2.0 because there are no longer GOR settlements. The leftover teams may find refuge in the Big 12, but I don't think FOX/ESPN give them full shares.

With that all being said, if no major realignment in the next 5 years, I think the 3:2 (SECB1G:Big12ACC) autobids will happen, but there will not be any auto byes for a conference, or if there are, it will be strictly on rankings.

Now as far as revenue, I think the P2 will get more than the M2, but I think people are greatly inflating how much more. My money is 5% more tops.

I just don't think the SEC/B1G have the stomach to blow it all up while having the major political fight against state flagship institutions who are academic peers, and in many cases, academic superiors with more political weight than themselves.

JR may think of the P2 as Napoleon out to conquer the world, but I look at them as more pragmatic in keeping it large to maximize profit without a war while getting small gains each step of the way.

That didn't stop the SEC from taking Oklahoma, and the BIG from taking Oregon, UCLA, and Washington

Texas was a huge get. Oklahoma, although they have a large fan following, rode Texas coattails into the SEC. Washington and Oregon were not even wanted by the B1G, they begged their way in taking smaller shares.

Personally, I don't even think FSU and Clemson bring enough money to the table to warrant the SEC taking them. That's just my opinion. Now people are talking about the ACC post mortem and placing Pittsburgh etc in the B1G? There is no such increased value to warrant a payout like that, especially already in their footprint.

Honestly, 60 to 75% of the teams in the B1G and SEC do not warrant their payouts. The remaining 25 to 40% warrant higher payouts.

Folks, this is where we are going and the only way I see this moving forward.

The SEC and B1G may continue expanding more and more. They may even take schools you would never imagine getting invited to a P2. However, each time a school is invited, they will take less and less pay, where the top schools will get any extra value they bring padded to their individual pay.

Where I think this is going is soon conferences will just be scheduling outfits and individual schools will negotiate their own TV deals.

The P2 want to possess all the prime timeslots. They need more inventory to do as such. In all likelihood, the B1G will not get all of it's ideal targets (nor will the SEC). Once folks start talking about doubling up in states beyond Florida/NC, Pitt easily has more to offer than the alternatives (Cal, 2nd Az team)... at least they can say they are PSU's only rival, one of UNDs buddies, and would cut down travel time. They could very easily be the B1G's 10th or 12th preference, but if the SEC takes 4 or 6 of the common targets or UND wants 2 or 3 buddies to accompany them, that still puts them in the running for a 24 team B1G.

The money runs out at some point. The top of the conferences will want to earn what they are worth. They currently are not by subsidizing the Purdues and Rutgers or the world. Individual schools will eventually be negotiating their own TV deals. Down the road, the media companies may even do the OOC football scheduling for them if they get paid enough.

(03-02-2024 11:42 AM)otown Wrote:  

(03-02-2024 11:35 AM)gwelymernans Wrote:  

(03-02-2024 10:54 AM)otown Wrote:  

(03-02-2024 09:47 AM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(03-02-2024 08:02 AM)otown Wrote:  Personally, I think many on here are too obsessed with the B1G and SEC having a blood battle with all the other conferences.

What do I think is gonna happen? The FSU drama will play out behind closed doors. Eventually they will get out and join the SEC. Once the price is set, another ACC team will leave to join as a partner for a similar fee. B1G may or may not offer another 2 to 4 teams in the ACC. The left overs will be bittersweet happy, because they will have a windfall of cash to hold them over through the next decade.

Now, the price to leave the ACC and my above scenario is all contingent on ESPN auto renewing. If not, it's PAC 2.0 because there are no longer GOR settlements. The leftover teams may find refuge in the Big 12, but I don't think FOX/ESPN give them full shares.

With that all being said, if no major realignment in the next 5 years, I think the 3:2 (SECB1G:Big12ACC) autobids will happen, but there will not be any auto byes for a conference, or if there are, it will be strictly on rankings.

Now as far as revenue, I think the P2 will get more than the M2, but I think people are greatly inflating how much more. My money is 5% more tops.

I just don't think the SEC/B1G have the stomach to blow it all up while having the major political fight against state flagship institutions who are academic peers, and in many cases, academic superiors with more political weight than themselves.

JR may think of the P2 as Napoleon out to conquer the world, but I look at them as more pragmatic in keeping it large to maximize profit without a war while getting small gains each step of the way.

That didn't stop the SEC from taking Oklahoma, and the BIG from taking Oregon, UCLA, and Washington

Texas was a huge get. Oklahoma, although they have a large fan following, rode Texas coattails into the SEC. Washington and Oregon were not even wanted by the B1G, they begged their way in taking smaller shares.

Personally, I don't even think FSU and Clemson bring enough money to the table to warrant the SEC taking them. That's just my opinion. Now people are talking about the ACC post mortem and placing Pittsburgh etc in the B1G? There is no such increased value to warrant a payout like that, especially already in their footprint.

Honestly, 60 to 75% of the teams in the B1G and SEC do not warrant their payouts. The remaining 25 to 40% warrant higher payouts.

Folks, this is where we are going and the only way I see this moving forward.

The SEC and B1G may continue expanding more and more. They may even take schools you would never imagine getting invited to a P2. However, each time a school is invited, they will take less and less pay, where the top schools will get any extra value they bring padded to their individual pay.

Where I think this is going is soon conferences will just be scheduling outfits and individual schools will negotiate their own TV deals.

The P2 want to possess all the prime timeslots. They need more inventory to do as such. In all likelihood, the B1G will not get all of it's ideal targets (nor will the SEC). Once folks start talking about doubling up in states beyond Florida/NC, Pitt easily has more to offer than the alternatives (Cal, 2nd Az team)... at least they can say they are PSU's only rival, one of UNDs buddies, and would cut down travel time. They could very easily be the B1G's 10th or 12th preference, but if the SEC takes 4 or 6 of the common targets or UND wants 2 or 3 buddies to accompany them, that still puts them in the running for a 24 team B1G.

The money runs out at some point. The top of the conferences will want to earn what they are worth. They currently are not by subsidizing the Purdues and Rutgers or the world. Individual schools will eventually be negotiating their own TV deals. Down the road, the media companies may even do the OOC football scheduling for them if they get paid enough.

Great, just what everyone wants to see. 7W-5L teams playing in the championship game.

(03-01-2024 10:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Welcome to the Doldrums of Realignment 2024.

In the days of sailing ships the doldrums were periods in which there were no Easterly or Westerly winds, in fact no wind at all. The only way for a sailing ship to try to reach its destination was to put the long boats over the side with them tied off to the bow and for crews to try to row the ship back into a breeze. It was rough, exhausting, long and drawn-out work. And, every sailor hated it.

Merrily, Merrily, Merrily, Merrily; Life is but a dream.

(03-01-2024 10:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The Johnson case has breakaway talk on the back burner. Why? If they rule players are employees, the case will be the justification to jump into a breakaway. If not, it doesn't preclude one but makes one a bit more confusing and a bit more ambiguous and might delay it another year as the 2-year playoff details come into focus giving everyone involved a clear window in which to work some of these things out.

...

And let's say those get worked out, and that the players are going to be paid when the Johnson case affirms their status as employees, and that a breakaway occurs, what is to become of the Big 12 schools, Oregon State and Washington State, and ACC schools without a home in the SEC and Big 10? That will need to be worked out as well, along with the inclusion of some top G5 programs opting in.

The Johnson case is on interlocutory appeal before the 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals. The NCAA (and the SEC in their amicus brief) is arguing that student-athletes can never be considered to be employees because they have no expectation of compensation.

If the Johnson plaintiffs win, the case would go back to the District Court to determine which student athletes are employees (and covered by minimum wage laws). For example, high school student athletes could be considered volunteers - they will continue to be students if they no longer are a member of a team (and if they are not performing as a student, they may be excluded from volunteering).

So it may end up that the employee/non-employee line may be somewhere between DI revenue sports, and DIII.

If the 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals rules in favor of the Johnson plaintiffs, it will likely be appealed to the full panel, and then the SCOTUS, since there are contradictory decisions from other circuits. The 3rd Circuit 3-judge panel heard the case February 15, 2023 (sic), so it is possible that the ACC GOR expire before the case is finally settled.

It may be that the Carter case will be decided sooner because it has an added antitrust angle that the P5 conferences have agreed/conspired to not compensate their student-employees to protect the revenue from their multi-billion dollar sports entertainment enterprise.

Note, one of the judges on the 3rd Circuit asked whether the student-athletes are not expecting to be compensated because NCAA rules prevent them from being compensated. The lawyer for the NCAA argued that it would be problematic with respect to Title IX if revenue sports were ruled to be employment status. A judge explained that would be a problem for the schools, not the judges.

(03-02-2024 11:59 AM)Sellular1 Wrote:  

(03-02-2024 11:42 AM)otown Wrote:  

(03-02-2024 11:35 AM)gwelymernans Wrote:  

(03-02-2024 10:54 AM)otown Wrote:  

(03-02-2024 09:47 AM)andybible1995 Wrote:  That didn't stop the SEC from taking Oklahoma, and the BIG from taking Oregon, UCLA, and Washington

Texas was a huge get. Oklahoma, although they have a large fan following, rode Texas coattails into the SEC. Washington and Oregon were not even wanted by the B1G, they begged their way in taking smaller shares.

Personally, I don't even think FSU and Clemson bring enough money to the table to warrant the SEC taking them. That's just my opinion. Now people are talking about the ACC post mortem and placing Pittsburgh etc in the B1G? There is no such increased value to warrant a payout like that, especially already in their footprint.

Honestly, 60 to 75% of the teams in the B1G and SEC do not warrant their payouts. The remaining 25 to 40% warrant higher payouts.

Folks, this is where we are going and the only way I see this moving forward.

The SEC and B1G may continue expanding more and more. They may even take schools you would never imagine getting invited to a P2. However, each time a school is invited, they will take less and less pay, where the top schools will get any extra value they bring padded to their individual pay.

Where I think this is going is soon conferences will just be scheduling outfits and individual schools will negotiate their own TV deals.

The P2 want to possess all the prime timeslots. They need more inventory to do as such. In all likelihood, the B1G will not get all of it's ideal targets (nor will the SEC). Once folks start talking about doubling up in states beyond Florida/NC, Pitt easily has more to offer than the alternatives (Cal, 2nd Az team)... at least they can say they are PSU's only rival, one of UNDs buddies, and would cut down travel time. They could very easily be the B1G's 10th or 12th preference, but if the SEC takes 4 or 6 of the common targets or UND wants 2 or 3 buddies to accompany them, that still puts them in the running for a 24 team B1G.

The money runs out at some point. The top of the conferences will want to earn what they are worth. They currently are not by subsidizing the Purdues and Rutgers or the world. Individual schools will eventually be negotiating their own TV deals. Down the road, the media companies may even do the OOC football scheduling for them if they get paid enough.

Great, just what everyone wants to see. 7W-5L teams playing in the championship game.

The Globetrotters need the Generals. It's hard to kick schools out that haven't violated bylaws. A P1 would turn a number of proud programs, some w/ a few titles, into the Generals. Maybe the network's segregation of value stops at the break even point (i.e., P2 adds 2-6), but I would suspect it stops at some level of market share or inventory a bit beyond that.

(03-02-2024 04:28 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  now David, you went off the rails

Went? Just now? You must be new to this site. :-)

But his dream of BSU being in the P5 should be realized soon. Via the nPac-12. And, of course, the nPac-12, and DavidSt, will claim, repetitively, that they are P5.

Despite, after 8/1/24, there only being P4. And in the years ahead P3 (or S2+1).

Let me rush to the bottom of the list of what is important.

If the SEC adds all five
UNC
NC State
Duke
UVA
VT

Can the B1G still get UNC, Duke, UVA for soccer and lax? Since y'all don't care about those sports in the SEC

(03-02-2024 08:02 AM)otown Wrote:  Personally, I think many on here are too obsessed with the B1G and SEC having a blood battle with all the other conferences.

What do I think is gonna happen? The FSU drama will play out behind closed doors. Eventually they will get out and join the SEC. Once the price is set, another ACC team will leave to join as a partner for a similar fee. B1G may or may not offer another 2 to 4 teams in the ACC. The left overs will be bittersweet happy, because they will have a windfall of cash to hold them over through the next decade.

Now, the price to leave the ACC and my above scenario is all contingent on ESPN auto renewing. If not, it's PAC 2.0 because there are no longer GOR settlements. The leftover teams may find refuge in the Big 12, but I don't think FOX/ESPN give them full shares.

With that all being said, if no major realignment in the next 5 years, I think the 3:2 (SECB1G:Big12ACC) autobids will happen, but there will not be any auto byes for a conference, or if there are, it will be strictly on rankings.

Now as far as revenue, I think the P2 will get more than the M2, but I think people are greatly inflating how much more. My money is 5% more tops.

I just don't think the SEC/B1G have the stomach to blow it all up while having the major political fight against state flagship institutions who are academic peers, and in many cases, academic superiors with more political weight than themselves.

JR may think of the P2 as Napoleon out to conquer the world, but I look at them as more pragmatic in keeping it large to maximize profit without a war while getting small gains each step of the way.

You don't read well do you? The Napoleons are FOX and ESPN and it is pretty clear they are desirous of an NFL model. Why? It is the best platform from which guarantee audience size. Sankey and Petitti don't do anything unless the money is there.

Pragmatic? Keeping it large to maximize profit? Was it pragmatic to utterly destroy the PAC 12? Totally decapitate the value from the Big 12? Are the consolidating the top brands into the SEC and Big 10 to keep it large? And is paying 133 schools in the FBS and 10 conference TV contracts as efficient and profitable as paying half as many schools and 2 conferences 30% more and gaining a 16 team NFL style playoff? Not at all.

Got to feel sorry for a guy who walks onto a battlefield right after the firefight surveys the dead and dying and talks about minimizing costs and keeping things as they were. Nothing is as it was 3 years ago. And 3 years out of 140 years of college football is a blink of an eye. Especially for a sport which had experienced relatively few changes composition wise from the 1880's until 1983 other than growth and changes in equipment and rules. Now look at the last 40 years with something other than the bias of a UCF fan wanting their attainment of P status in the Big 12 to remain the same and tell me with a straight face that there isn't carnage and reduction in the numbers of those which actually have a chance to win it all? B.Y.U. had a miraculous year in 1984. Has anyone borderline to the G5 attained that since? 1984 was largely unaffected by the SCOTUS ruling in 1983, but since then the chasing of TV revenue has driven everything.

The Big 10 has adopted seeking large metros for the construction of their league and league is what it is at 18 likely at least 20. They SEC has sought market dominance in the healthiest two regions of the country for the playing of high school football and the passion for college football.

As I've said in the past if this stops at 18 for the Big 10, and the SEC takes in FSU and picks up Kansas (meaning doesn't also steal Clemson thereby taking the top two football values away from the ACC) then maybe this settles into a Super 2 and Middle 2. But nothing happening now, or spoken of by Warren and Swarbrick when the decapitation of the Big 12 and destruction of the PAC 12 took place, indicates that to be true. Does the Big 10 expand further if they can get a Florida school and Notre Dame, or a Florida school and any other AAU state flagship? No. Does the SEC stop if they can pick up a second Florida school and any other blueblood, or pick up North Carolina and a Virginia school? No.

Now who again is paying for this? FOX and ESPN. Snap out of your denial that bigger isn't happening, out of your belief that the SEC and Big 10 is driving it, and especially out of the delusion that says it's more costly to pay fewer more. And you don't even mention that schools which are already subsidized by minimally 25% of their total athletic budget are going to be able to afford a jump which likely doubles their overhead.

Nothing currently indicates the survival of a P4. Maybe a S2 & M1 in an upper tier.

(03-02-2024 01:20 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(03-01-2024 11:35 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The Cousin Crouze on Youtube is reporting a Tweet from someone with Michigan as a fan or something that the Big 10 is targeting schools in the Big 12. Arizona State, Arizona, Colorado and TCU for 2026 and others in the ACC. Yes, TCU is said to be targeted because there are Big 10 alum in the Dallas area.

SEC could pick and choose from Big 12 and ACC as well.

ACC may wind up getting some Big 12, and Big 12 could kill off the PAC 2, and get the best of the AAC and MWC. If that is the case? I think consolidate even more 2 P, 2 M and several G.

Big 10 is definitely not targeting B12 schools that have been available to them for 12 years. ASU has never been anyone's first choice, their AAU is more Oregon-like than Texas-like. TCU, that's not happening.

Is the B1G targeting the San Francisco 49ers?? To read your posts, it sure sounds like it. Never mind that the 49ers are NFL; let's get 'em in the B1G!!! The B1G's hunt for Notre Dame's lucky charms continue.


[/quote]

(03-02-2024 02:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-02-2024 08:02 AM)otown Wrote:  Personally, I think many on here are too obsessed with the B1G and SEC having a blood battle with all the other conferences.

What do I think is gonna happen? The FSU drama will play out behind closed doors. Eventually they will get out and join the SEC. Once the price is set, another ACC team will leave to join as a partner for a similar fee. B1G may or may not offer another 2 to 4 teams in the ACC. The left overs will be bittersweet happy, because they will have a windfall of cash to hold them over through the next decade.

Now, the price to leave the ACC and my above scenario is all contingent on ESPN auto renewing. If not, it's PAC 2.0 because there are no longer GOR settlements. The leftover teams may find refuge in the Big 12, but I don't think FOX/ESPN give them full shares.

With that all being said, if no major realignment in the next 5 years, I think the 3:2 (SECB1G:Big12ACC) autobids will happen, but there will not be any auto byes for a conference, or if there are, it will be strictly on rankings.

Now as far as revenue, I think the P2 will get more than the M2, but I think people are greatly inflating how much more. My money is 5% more tops.

I just don't think the SEC/B1G have the stomach to blow it all up while having the major political fight against state flagship institutions who are academic peers, and in many cases, academic superiors with more political weight than themselves.

JR may think of the P2 as Napoleon out to conquer the world, but I look at them as more pragmatic in keeping it large to maximize profit without a war while getting small gains each step of the way.

You don't read well do you? The Napoleons are FOX and ESPN and it is pretty clear they are desirous of an NFL model. Why? It is the best platform from which guarantee audience size. Sankey and Petitti don't do anything unless the money is there.

Pragmatic? Keeping it large to maximize profit? Was it pragmatic to utterly destroy the PAC 12? Totally decapitate the value from the Big 12? Are the consolidating the top brands into the SEC and Big 10 to keep it large? And is paying 133 schools in the FBS and 10 conference TV contracts as efficient and profitable as paying half as many schools and 2 conferences 30% more and gaining a 16 team NFL style playoff? Not at all.

Got to feel sorry for a guy who walks onto a battlefield right after the firefight surveys the dead and dying and talks about minimizing costs and keeping things as they were. Nothing is as it was 3 years ago. And 3 years out of 140 years of college football is a blink of an eye. Especially for a sport which had experienced relatively few changes composition wise from the 1880's until 1983 other than growth and changes in equipment and rules. Now look at the last 40 years with something other than the bias of a UCF fan wanting their attainment of P status in the Big 12 to remain the same and tell me with a straight face that there isn't carnage and reduction in the numbers of those which actually have a chance to win it all? B.Y.U. had a miraculous year in 1984. Has anyone borderline to the G5 attained that since? 1984 was largely unaffected by the SCOTUS ruling in 1983, but since then the chasing of TV revenue has driven everything.

The Big 10 has adopted seeking large metros for the construction of their league and league is what it is at 18 likely at least 20. They SEC has sought market dominance in the healthiest two regions of the country for the playing of high school football and the passion for college football.

As I've said in the past if this stops at 18 for the Big 10, and the SEC takes in FSU and picks up Kansas (meaning doesn't also steal Clemson thereby taking the top two football values away from the ACC) then maybe this settles into a Super 2 and Middle 2. But nothing happening now, or spoken of by Warren and Swarbrick when the decapitation of the Big 12 and destruction of the PAC 12 took place, indicates that to be true. Does the Big 10 expand further if they can get a Florida school and Notre Dame, or a Florida school and any other AAU state flagship? No. Does the SEC stop if they can pick up a second Florida school and any other blueblood, or pick up North Carolina and a Virginia school? No.

Now who again is paying for this? FOX and ESPN. Snap out of your denial that bigger isn't happening, out of your belief that the SEC and Big 10 is driving it, and especially out of the delusion that says it's more costly to pay fewer more. And you don't even mention that schools which are already subsidized by minimally 25% of their total athletic budget are going to be able to afford a jump which likely doubles their overhead.

Nothing currently indicates the survival of a P4. Maybe a S2 & M1 in an upper tier.

No need to get hysterical, this was just my opinion. Chill dude.

(03-02-2024 04:28 PM)otown Wrote:  

(03-02-2024 02:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-02-2024 08:02 AM)otown Wrote:  Personally, I think many on here are too obsessed with the B1G and SEC having a blood battle with all the other conferences.

What do I think is gonna happen? The FSU drama will play out behind closed doors. Eventually they will get out and join the SEC. Once the price is set, another ACC team will leave to join as a partner for a similar fee. B1G may or may not offer another 2 to 4 teams in the ACC. The left overs will be bittersweet happy, because they will have a windfall of cash to hold them over through the next decade.

Now, the price to leave the ACC and my above scenario is all contingent on ESPN auto renewing. If not, it's PAC 2.0 because there are no longer GOR settlements. The leftover teams may find refuge in the Big 12, but I don't think FOX/ESPN give them full shares.

With that all being said, if no major realignment in the next 5 years, I think the 3:2 (SECB1G:Big12ACC) autobids will happen, but there will not be any auto byes for a conference, or if there are, it will be strictly on rankings.

Now as far as revenue, I think the P2 will get more than the M2, but I think people are greatly inflating how much more. My money is 5% more tops.

I just don't think the SEC/B1G have the stomach to blow it all up while having the major political fight against state flagship institutions who are academic peers, and in many cases, academic superiors with more political weight than themselves.

JR may think of the P2 as Napoleon out to conquer the world, but I look at them as more pragmatic in keeping it large to maximize profit without a war while getting small gains each step of the way.

You don't read well do you? The Napoleons are FOX and ESPN and it is pretty clear they are desirous of an NFL model. Why? It is the best platform from which guarantee audience size. Sankey and Petitti don't do anything unless the money is there.

Pragmatic? Keeping it large to maximize profit? Was it pragmatic to utterly destroy the PAC 12? Totally decapitate the value from the Big 12? Are the consolidating the top brands into the SEC and Big 10 to keep it large? And is paying 133 schools in the FBS and 10 conference TV contracts as efficient and profitable as paying half as many schools and 2 conferences 30% more and gaining a 16 team NFL style playoff? Not at all.

Got to feel sorry for a guy who walks onto a battlefield right after the firefight surveys the dead and dying and talks about minimizing costs and keeping things as they were. Nothing is as it was 3 years ago. And 3 years out of 140 years of college football is a blink of an eye. Especially for a sport which had experienced relatively few changes composition wise from the 1880's until 1983 other than growth and changes in equipment and rules. Now look at the last 40 years with something other than the bias of a UCF fan wanting their attainment of P status in the Big 12 to remain the same and tell me with a straight face that there isn't carnage and reduction in the numbers of those which actually have a chance to win it all? B.Y.U. had a miraculous year in 1984. Has anyone borderline to the G5 attained that since? 1984 was largely unaffected by the SCOTUS ruling in 1983, but since then the chasing of TV revenue has driven everything.

The Big 10 has adopted seeking large metros for the construction of their league and league is what it is at 18 likely at least 20. They SEC has sought market dominance in the healthiest two regions of the country for the playing of high school football and the passion for college football.

As I've said in the past if this stops at 18 for the Big 10, and the SEC takes in FSU and picks up Kansas (meaning doesn't also steal Clemson thereby taking the top two football values away from the ACC) then maybe this settles into a Super 2 and Middle 2. But nothing happening now, or spoken of by Warren and Swarbrick when the decapitation of the Big 12 and destruction of the PAC 12 took place, indicates that to be true. Does the Big 10 expand further if they can get a Florida school and Notre Dame, or a Florida school and any other AAU state flagship? No. Does the SEC stop if they can pick up a second Florida school and any other blueblood, or pick up North Carolina and a Virginia school? No.

Now who again is paying for this? FOX and ESPN. Snap out of your denial that bigger isn't happening, out of your belief that the SEC and Big 10 is driving it, and especially out of the delusion that says it's more costly to pay fewer more. And you don't even mention that schools which are already subsidized by minimally 25% of their total athletic budget are going to be able to afford a jump which likely doubles their overhead.

Nothing currently indicates the survival of a P4. Maybe a S2 & M1 in an upper tier.

No need to get hysterical, this was just my opinion. Chill dude.

I don't get hysterical. Never have in business or personally. It's simple cold hard facts which you refuse to accept. And if you keep up with slighting inferences when you don't have a response to the argument it will be treated as the troll that it is. I would have sent you a PM but it's turned off, which around here is another behavior trait of a troll.

Are we in the doldrums or the eye of the hurricane?

We just underwent some seismic shifts with OUT, followed by the the LA schools to the Big 10, and then the subsequent partitioning of the rest of the PAC 12. Things are calm for now but once the Florida St situation works its way out, I think we see a return to massive realignment moves and the emergence of some sort of upper crust organization that is either an independent or a new subdivision of the NCAA.

One power conference is national. = Big Ten
Other power conference is Regional = SEC

If you can’t see where this all ends. Don’t know what to tell you.

Once the Big 10 Gobbles ND, FSU, NC and Clemson.

The last conference they have left to gobble up includes the likes of Texas, Georgia, LSU and Bama.

That’s the end game.

(03-02-2024 05:08 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Are we in the doldrums or the eye of the hurricane?

We just underwent some seismic shifts with OUT, followed by the the LA schools to the Big 10, and then the subsequent partitioning of the rest of the PAC 12. Things are calm for now but once the Florida St situation works its way out, I think we see a return to massive realignment moves and the emergence of some sort of upper crust organization that is either an independent or a new subdivision of the NCAA.

Like I said. Who made the rules like it was when the FBS split from FCS? Schools like Oklahoma. The P5 at the time wanted to cut down the size or numbers of schools from the start when the NCAA started and made the rules that NJCAA schools can't compete for titles. Some schools saw the writing on the walls, and formed the NJCAA and NAIA, but there were still over 200 to 300 schools still playing at the top until College and University division formed, then it went down to Division 1, 2 and 3. Who was leading the charge of trimming down behind the NCAA with all these rules and changes all these years? The P5, and now P2. Practically, the lawsuits were against the P2, but it was actually against all schools. The P2 needs to readjust their attitude, and the Networks need to make it a level playing field for all the schools involved or there could be major lawsuits against the P2 and the Networks for violating the court orders.

(03-02-2024 05:45 PM)Fanofreason Wrote:  One power conference is national. = Big Ten
Other power conference is Regional = SEC

If you can’t see where this all ends. Don’t know what to tell you.

Once the Big 10 Gobbles ND, FSU, NC and Clemson.

The last conference they have left to gobble up includes the likes of Texas, Georgia, LSU and Bama.

That’s the end game.

You are only angling for National because after Texas and Oklahoma joined the SEC you had no other options that could help you close 3.5 billion dollar valuation gap. If you land Notre Dame with the 4 you added in the PAC you will have halved the deficit. Meantime most realignment is regional, and the SEC outearns the Big 10 annually by about 5 million dollars per school when you look at total revenue instead of just the 1/3rd of it which comes from media. So by moving to the SEC, if that is what the ACC schools would have to do, they not only put themselves in position to earn more in total revenue thanks to large travel crowds and high dollar ticket donations, but they cut overhead in travel.

I'd love to see how the Big 10 which has inclement late Fall weather, massive potential travel distances, and disparate internal interests and agendas and averages about 11,000 less per event than the SEC is going to lure the schools that you are convinced they are going to get and do so at the expense of ESPN's interests who will have to remain totally passive for it to occur. That'll take an even more magical bullet than the one they claimed Oswald fired in Dallas.

Nobody sweeps the next phase. Not the SEC and not the Big 10. I expect they both get what their networks want to them have and if the Big 10 lands FSU the SEC will land Miami or vice versa. ESPN will protect the ACC brands to which they want 100% of the rights. This thing has deal all over it.

And even when things are decided the SEC will still hold the same advantages it had going into the conclusion and will have drawn very close on the media revenue.

The Big 10 has one opportunity to score more than the SEC. It would take FSU vs the ACC going all the way to a verdict and the judge ruling the GOR was invalid. That too would be a very magical bullet.

But we all have our dreams.

The thing is it appears that FOX and ESPN are trying to set up a competitive League comprised of the enhanced Big 10 and enhanced SEC and possibly a third. Their goals do not include SEC or Big 10 dominance as it hurts their objective.

(03-02-2024 01:20 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(03-01-2024 11:35 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The Cousin Crouze on Youtube is reporting a Tweet from someone with Michigan as a fan or something that the Big 10 is targeting schools in the Big 12. Arizona State, Arizona, Colorado and TCU for 2026 and others in the ACC. Yes, TCU is said to be targeted because there are Big 10 alum in the Dallas area.

SEC could pick and choose from Big 12 and ACC as well.

ACC may wind up getting some Big 12, and Big 12 could kill off the PAC 2, and get the best of the AAC and MWC. If that is the case? I think consolidate even more 2 P, 2 M and several G.

Big 10 is definitely not targeting B12 schools that have been available to them for 12 years. ASU has never been anyone's first choice, their AAU is more Oregon-like than Texas-like. TCU, that's not happening.

This. David, you're not a realignment expert, and neither is Cousin Crouze on YouTube. I'll stick with Pete Thamel, Brett McMurphy, and the like, thank you very much.