We’re in a rare place where I think you could realistically put two men together in a room, the Big 10 and SEC commissioners, and hammer out a consensus agreement on what the top level of college sports looks like and who gets to be a part of it. Below is a summary of what I think each side’s goals and objectives are:

Big 10–
1. wants Notre Dame and wants the SEC to agree to a post season that puts extreme pressure on ND to join a conference to ensure access.

2. would like a toe hold in FL

3. has interest in the VA/NC region

SEC—
1. wants to control a majority of the state of FL

2. wants to prevent incursions/competition into the Southeast, including VA/NC


————
If both sides were willing to come to an agreement that 24 as their membership cap, I think there could be a consensus that makes everyone relatively happy.

Conceding ND to the Big 10 is a relatively easy move so long as the SEC gets something in return, like let’s say FSU.

I also don’t see VA/NC as being critical to the Big 10. Maybe they give that up for Miami and an agreement that keeps the SEC from expanding beyond Missouri in the Midwest (Kansas). If they are in step though, that FL presence isn’t as necessary.

If both sides are working collectively and with that a mean in the future they are taking their media rights to market as a package, it actually probably makes sense for the Big 10 to fill the holes in their collective national footprint—places like the Bay Area, AZ, and Colorado.

Maybe the end product is:

Big 10: +ND, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Ariz St, Colorado
SEC: +FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT, Miami, GT/L’ville

The joint Big/SEC collective is truly national—Boston and Hartford are about the only major markets who aren’t a part of the footprint and New England has never been a collegiate sports hotbed.

Its probably a bigger group than necessary but the extra 8 or so members can help absorb losses and provide inventory to the T2 and T3 rights.

(03-03-2024 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’re in a rare place where I think you could realistically put two men together in a room, the Big 10 and SEC commissioners, and hammer out a consensus agreement on what the top level of college sports looks like and who gets to be a part of it. Below is a summary of what I think each side’s goals and objectives are:

Big 10–
1. wants Notre Dame and wants the SEC to agree to a post season that puts extreme pressure on ND to join a conference to ensure access.

2. would like a toe hold in FL

3. has interest in the VA/NC region

SEC—
1. wants to control a majority of the state of FL

2. wants to prevent incursions/competition into the Southeast, including VA/NC


————
If both sides were willing to come to an agreement that 24 as their membership cap, I think there could be a consensus that makes everyone relatively happy.

Conceding ND to the Big 10 is a relatively easy move so long as the SEC gets something in return, like let’s say FSU.

I also don’t see VA/NC as being critical to the Big 10. Maybe they give that up for Miami and an agreement that keeps the SEC from expanding beyond Missouri in the Midwest (Kansas). If they are in step though, that FL presence isn’t as necessary.

If both sides are working collectively and with that a mean in the future they are taking their media rights to market as a package, it actually probably makes sense for the Big 10 to fill the holes in their collective national footprint—places like the Bay Area, AZ, and Colorado.

Maybe the end product is:

Big 10: +ND, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Ariz St, Colorado
SEC: +FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT, Miami, GT/L’ville

The joint Big/SEC collective is truly national—Boston and Hartford are about the only major markets who aren’t a part of the footprint and New England has never been a collegiate sports hotbed.

Its probably a bigger group than necessary but the extra 8 or so members can help absorb losses and provide inventory to the T2 and T3 rights.

I think you are missing one step here.

FOX bends Petitti's ear on what they feel they must have: Notre Dame to cover the value of other moves. A toe hold in Florida for recruiting connections. A toe hold in Texas for the same.

Big 10 agrees to suspend AAU requirements for T.C.U.. Big 10 agrees to pursue FSU for 35% of the Florida College Sports viewers. Big 10 then gets clearance for the next 3 additions of their choice.

ESPN bends Sankey's ear. They want to keep Duke, UNC and Virginia. They want to keep the majority of the Florida market so Miami or FSU. They want the final jewel of the Big 12, Kansas. So, the SEC's hands are tied on 5 moves in the Carolinas and Virginia. Miami or FSU so 6. Kansas so 7. The SEC has one choice, Clemson or Colorado, or Georgia Tech. The SEC takes Clemson.

Why in the hell would this be so? UVa and UNC simply refuse to cooperate unless the gang stays together. You could simply bypass them and let the SEC move to 20 with Clemson, FSU if they could get them, Kansas and Miami, but all that does is delay the ultimate settlement and ESPN isn't free to just let the ACC contract lapse unless they've secured what they want.

Clemson, Duke, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech take the SEC to 24. Except for FSU and Georgia Tech ESPN keeps the hold it wants over the region.

FOX gets FSU's 35% of the Florida market, Notre Dame does join the Big 10, T.C.U is #21, and the Big 10 picks up Georgia Tech, Stanford, and Arizona State to go to 24.

FOX is appeased, ESPN pays for what they want. The SEC stays essentially regional. And the Big 10 adds another academic stalwart and a pair of FOI (friends of the Irish).

if you want to lock the country down with national presence
double down doesn't make sence in smaller states, Tex & Fla, yeah

Go back to the bowl system and have the B1G vs SEC in the Rose bowl, declare the winner the ESPN-Fox champion, this would insure someone from one of these 2 conferences win the NC every year which seems like what they want.

(03-03-2024 05:41 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  if you want to lock the country down with national presence
double down doesn't make sence in smaller states, Tex & Fla, yeah

We don't want a national presence. We make more with a strong regional one. The Southeast has the highest saturation of actual sports viewers compared to total possible viewers of anywhere in the nation and the Southwest is #2. We have the most recruits of anywhere in the nation and the Southwest is #2. The only thing we need to dominate both money sports is more top national draws in basketball. Duke, North Carolina and Kansas give us those and help balance out the football records to boot. Baseball and Softball are or can be revenue sports at most of our campus sites and we dominate those sports already with Oklahoma and Texas cinching it.

We don't need or want a West Coast presence and if we land Clemson and Miami we have 2/3rds of the best football branding in the ACC and Virginia Tech adds to it.

ESPN and Fox would have to approve and be willing to finance what Sankey and Petitti are proposing. For example, ESPN isn’t going to sacrifice its cash-cow ACCN…they’ll prefer the remaining ACC & B12 to merge and have enough geographic diversity to salvage the ACCN. In addition, Notre Dame football is vitally important to completing the deal…they’ll extract some concession to make this happen.

A pair of 24-team conferences could do it:

B1G
East- Michigan, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers & Maryland
Central- Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa & Nebraska
West- Washington, Oregon, UCLA, Cal-Berkeley, Arizona State & Colorado
Privates- Northwestern, Notre Dame, Miami, Stanford, USC & Purdue

SEC
East- Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Duke & Virginia
Appalachian- Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia Tech, NC State, Clemson & Florida State
Gulf- Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, LSU & Vanderbilt
West- Texas, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri & Kansas

ACC-B12
East- BC, Syracuse, Pitt, WVU, Cincinnati, Louisville, WFU, Georgia Tech, UCF & SMU
West- ISU, K State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Houston, Baylor, Texas Tech, BYU, Utah & Arizona
ESPN and the merged entity could add San Diego State, Memphis, UConn and USF to complement this group.

(03-03-2024 05:48 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:  Go back to the bowl system and have the B1G vs SEC in the Rose bowl, declare the winner the ESPN-Fox champion, this would insure someone from one of these 2 conferences win the NC every year which seems like what they want.

lol I actually love this idea because it’s so true. Too bad we’ve passed the point of it actually happening

(03-03-2024 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’re in a rare place where I think you could realistically put two men together in a room, the Big 10 and SEC commissioners, and hammer out a consensus agreement on what the top level of college sports looks like and who gets to be a part of it. Below is a summary of what I think each side’s goals and objectives are:

Big 10–
1. wants Notre Dame and wants the SEC to agree to a post season that puts extreme pressure on ND to join a conference to ensure access.

2. would like a toe hold in FL

3. has interest in the VA/NC region

SEC—
1. wants to control a majority of the state of FL

2. wants to prevent incursions/competition into the Southeast, including VA/NC


————
If both sides were willing to come to an agreement that 24 as their membership cap, I think there could be a consensus that makes everyone relatively happy.

Conceding ND to the Big 10 is a relatively easy move so long as the SEC gets something in return, like let’s say FSU.

I also don’t see VA/NC as being critical to the Big 10. Maybe they give that up for Miami and an agreement that keeps the SEC from expanding beyond Missouri in the Midwest (Kansas). If they are in step though, that FL presence isn’t as necessary.

If both sides are working collectively and with that a mean in the future they are taking their media rights to market as a package, it actually probably makes sense for the Big 10 to fill the holes in their collective national footprint—places like the Bay Area, AZ, and Colorado.

Maybe the end product is:

Big 10: +ND, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Ariz St, Colorado
SEC: +FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT, Miami, GT/L’ville

The joint Big/SEC collective is truly national—Boston and Hartford are about the only major markets who aren’t a part of the footprint and New England has never been a collegiate sports hotbed.

Its probably a bigger group than necessary but the extra 8 or so members can help absorb losses and provide inventory to the T2 and T3 rights.

I don't think ND is going to join the BIG. They will remain indepedent indefintely while finding a way to ride the coat tails of the P2. I would give ND's spot to Kansas. That way Colorado and Nebraska have an old foe to play.

As for the SEC, I agree with the teams you've listed. I would pick Georgia Tech over Louisville, for academic and media market reasons. I'm not sure 3 teams in Florida will work, but it's more marketable than 3 teams in North Carolina.

(03-03-2024 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’re in a rare place where I think you could realistically put two men together in a room, the Big 10 and SEC commissioners, and hammer out a consensus agreement on what the top level of college sports looks like and who gets to be a part of it. Below is a summary of what I think each side’s goals and objectives are:

Big 10–
1. wants Notre Dame and wants the SEC to agree to a post season that puts extreme pressure on ND to join a conference to ensure access.

2. would like a toe hold in FL

3. has interest in the VA/NC region

SEC—
1. wants to control a majority of the state of FL

2. wants to prevent incursions/competition into the Southeast, including VA/NC


————
If both sides were willing to come to an agreement that 24 as their membership cap, I think there could be a consensus that makes everyone relatively happy.

Conceding ND to the Big 10 is a relatively easy move so long as the SEC gets something in return, like let’s say FSU.

I also don’t see VA/NC as being critical to the Big 10. Maybe they give that up for Miami and an agreement that keeps the SEC from expanding beyond Missouri in the Midwest (Kansas). If they are in step though, that FL presence isn’t as necessary.

If both sides are working collectively and with that a mean in the future they are taking their media rights to market as a package, it actually probably makes sense for the Big 10 to fill the holes in their collective national footprint—places like the Bay Area, AZ, and Colorado.

Maybe the end product is:

Big 10: +ND, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Ariz St, Colorado
SEC: +FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT, Miami, GT/L’ville

The joint Big/SEC collective is truly national—Boston and Hartford are about the only major markets who aren’t a part of the footprint and New England has never been a collegiate sports hotbed.

Its probably a bigger group than necessary but the extra 8 or so members can help absorb losses and provide inventory to the T2 and T3 rights.

I'll throw out something unlikely, but better than 24 team monstrosities. The SEC and Big 10 effectively merge and do a joint TV contract as soon as the current ones expire, add 8 schools and create 3 fourteen team conferences who play 8 conference games and two against teams from the partner conferences, to give 10 games within the group.

Big 10 Maryland, Rutgers, Penn St., Ohio St., Michigan, Michigan St., Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Notre Dame
SEC LSU, Ole Miss, Miss. St., Alabama, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Florida St., Clemson, North Carolina
New conference USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas, Colorado, Stanford, Cal

Big 12 is still around with 14. ACC is still around with 12 and nobody west of Dallas, so they add UConn and USF.

Nobody else is forced out, but the cost of staying will be raised with full scholarships and raised limits on the non-rev sports. There is also equality in the number of scholarships between men and women's sports instead of reduced numbers for men's sports, so the schools get to choose how to comply with Title IX instead of the NCAA fixing things.

And NIL is unlimited, but since they concede employment status, they do two year employment contracts to keep transfers from being totally out of hand.

(03-03-2024 05:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’re in a rare place where I think you could realistically put two men together in a room, the Big 10 and SEC commissioners, and hammer out a consensus agreement on what the top level of college sports looks like and who gets to be a part of it. Below is a summary of what I think each side’s goals and objectives are:

Big 10–
1. wants Notre Dame and wants the SEC to agree to a post season that puts extreme pressure on ND to join a conference to ensure access.

2. would like a toe hold in FL

3. has interest in the VA/NC region

SEC—
1. wants to control a majority of the state of FL

2. wants to prevent incursions/competition into the Southeast, including VA/NC


————
If both sides were willing to come to an agreement that 24 as their membership cap, I think there could be a consensus that makes everyone relatively happy.

Conceding ND to the Big 10 is a relatively easy move so long as the SEC gets something in return, like let’s say FSU.

I also don’t see VA/NC as being critical to the Big 10. Maybe they give that up for Miami and an agreement that keeps the SEC from expanding beyond Missouri in the Midwest (Kansas). If they are in step though, that FL presence isn’t as necessary.

If both sides are working collectively and with that a mean in the future they are taking their media rights to market as a package, it actually probably makes sense for the Big 10 to fill the holes in their collective national footprint—places like the Bay Area, AZ, and Colorado.

Maybe the end product is:

Big 10: +ND, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Ariz St, Colorado
SEC: +FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT, Miami, GT/L’ville

The joint Big/SEC collective is truly national—Boston and Hartford are about the only major markets who aren’t a part of the footprint and New England has never been a collegiate sports hotbed.

Its probably a bigger group than necessary but the extra 8 or so members can help absorb losses and provide inventory to the T2 and T3 rights.

I think you are missing one step here.

FOX bends Petitti's ear on what they feel they must have: Notre Dame to cover the value of other moves. A toe hold in Florida for recruiting connections. A toe hold in Texas for the same.

Big 10 agrees to suspend AAU requirements for T.C.U.. Big 10 agrees to pursue FSU for 35% of the Florida College Sports viewers. Big 10 then gets clearance for the next 3 additions of their choice.

ESPN bends Sankey's ear. They want to keep Duke, UNC and Virginia. They want to keep the majority of the Florida market so Miami or FSU. They want the final jewel of the Big 12, Kansas. So, the SEC's hands are tied on 5 moves in the Carolinas and Virginia. Miami or FSU so 6. Kansas so 7. The SEC has one choice, Clemson or Colorado, or Georgia Tech. The SEC takes Clemson.

Why in the hell would this be so? UVa and UNC simply refuse to cooperate unless the gang stays together. You could simply bypass them and let the SEC move to 20 with Clemson, FSU if they could get them, Kansas and Miami, but all that does is delay the ultimate settlement and ESPN isn't free to just let the ACC contract lapse unless they've secured what they want.

Clemson, Duke, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech take the SEC to 24. Except for FSU and Georgia Tech ESPN keeps the hold it wants over the region.

FOX gets FSU's 35% of the Florida market, Notre Dame does join the Big 10, T.C.U is #21, and the Big 10 picks up Georgia Tech, Stanford, and Arizona State to go to 24.

FOX is appeased, ESPN pays for what they want. The SEC stays essentially regional. And the Big 10 adds another academic stalwart and a pair of FOI (friends of the Irish).

This is a response to both of you:

I think that the 2 of them could agree on just about whatever they want and the networks would go along with it. However, what they want today is not necessarily what they wanted 5 years ago or even 5 weeks ago. B1G Presidents have a long and distinguished history in particular of making life difficult for their Commissioner. Delany struggled mightily before finally getting PSU across the finish line. Warren was run out of town (allegedly) when he pushed too hard on things like pay for play and a much-bigger expansion strategy that the Presidents weren't ready for. Let us also remember that there's a ton of overlap between B1G and Pac admins. Do those clueless Pac admins move to the B1G and all of sudden figure out how important Athletics/football are? I think not.

Petitti might WANT to add a bunch of schools that don't conform to B1G standards or expectations, but I'm sure what incentive his schools and their Presidents have to agree to it. They're already in the cat bird's seat next to the SEC, and they're not going to be enthusiastic about bringing a bunch of "lesser" (in their minds) institutions like FSU, TCU or Clemson, especially after they allegedly passed on OUT b/c of OU's academics a few years ago.

And from the SEC Presidents perspective? A bunch of them have just kind of stayed in the same place for over 90 years and watched the center of the College Football Universe gravitate towards Birmingham, but there are now 6 that clearly remember days before they were in the SEC. Adding a bunch more schools is going to be tough to justify when those schools are more like Washington and UCLA (or NC St and Ok St) than they are like Texas and OU. If it's just 2, and those 2 provide all the benefits that FSU and Clemson provide (like winning, strong programs, great fan support, great media ratings, great locations, block the B1G)? Ok, I think that we'll get unanimous support for them. But, after that? Someone had better show up with a VERY LARGE checkbook and a reasonable explanation for how bringing in a bunch of non-Flagship, non-AAU programs with little to no history of football excellence is going to pad everyone's wallet.

My prediction is that the SEC adds FSU and Clemson, today, tomorrow, whenever they figure out their ACC situation. Miami and UNC will quite likely be 19/20 in either of the P2. After that nothing happens unless and until ND ever decides they're bored with Independence.

(03-03-2024 05:50 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 05:41 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  if you want to lock the country down with national presence
double down doesn't make sence in smaller states, Tex & Fla, yeah

We don't want a national presence. We make more with a strong regional one. The Southeast has the highest saturation of actual sports viewers compared to total possible viewers of anywhere in the nation and the Southwest is #2. We have the most recruits of anywhere in the nation and the Southwest is #2. The only thing we need to dominate both money sports is more top national draws in basketball. Duke, North Carolina and Kansas give us those and help balance out the football records to boot. Baseball and Softball are or can be revenue sports at most of our campus sites and we dominate those sports already with Oklahoma and Texas cinching it.

We don't need or want a West Coast presence and if we land Clemson and Miami we have 2/3rds of the best football branding in the ACC and Virginia Tech adds to it.

I know I just wrote about the 4 that I think end up in the P2, but I'll admit that I sometimes find myself strategizing about who will be the extra to go along with VT.

(03-03-2024 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’re in a rare place where I think you could realistically put two men together in a room, the Big 10 and SEC commissioners, and hammer out a consensus agreement on what the top level of college sports looks like and who gets to be a part of it. Below is a summary of what I think each side’s goals and objectives are:

Big 10–
1. wants Notre Dame and wants the SEC to agree to a post season that puts extreme pressure on ND to join a conference to ensure access.

2. would like a toe hold in FL

3. has interest in the VA/NC region

SEC—
1. wants to control a majority of the state of FL

2. wants to prevent incursions/competition into the Southeast, including VA/NC


————
If both sides were willing to come to an agreement that 24 as their membership cap, I think there could be a consensus that makes everyone relatively happy.

Conceding ND to the Big 10 is a relatively easy move so long as the SEC gets something in return, like let’s say FSU.

I also don’t see VA/NC as being critical to the Big 10. Maybe they give that up for Miami and an agreement that keeps the SEC from expanding beyond Missouri in the Midwest (Kansas). If they are in step though, that FL presence isn’t as necessary.

If both sides are working collectively and with that a mean in the future they are taking their media rights to market as a package, it actually probably makes sense for the Big 10 to fill the holes in their collective national footprint—places like the Bay Area, AZ, and Colorado.

Maybe the end product is:

Big 10: +ND, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Ariz St, Colorado
SEC: +FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT, Miami, GT/L’ville

The joint Big/SEC collective is truly national—Boston and Hartford are about the only major markets who aren’t a part of the footprint and New England has never been a collegiate sports hotbed.

Its probably a bigger group than necessary but the extra 8 or so members can help absorb losses and provide inventory to the T2 and T3 rights.

How Machiavellian of you.

(03-03-2024 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’re in a rare place where I think you could realistically put two men together in a room, the Big 10 and SEC commissioners, and hammer out a consensus agreement on what the top level of college sports looks like and who gets to be a part of it. Below is a summary of what I think each side’s goals and objectives are:

Big 10–
1. wants Notre Dame and wants the SEC to agree to a post season that puts extreme pressure on ND to join a conference to ensure access.

2. would like a toe hold in FL

3. has interest in the VA/NC region

SEC—
1. wants to control a majority of the state of FL

2. wants to prevent incursions/competition into the Southeast, including VA/NC


————
If both sides were willing to come to an agreement that 24 as their membership cap, I think there could be a consensus that makes everyone relatively happy.

Conceding ND to the Big 10 is a relatively easy move so long as the SEC gets something in return, like let’s say FSU.

I also don’t see VA/NC as being critical to the Big 10. Maybe they give that up for Miami and an agreement that keeps the SEC from expanding beyond Missouri in the Midwest (Kansas). If they are in step though, that FL presence isn’t as necessary.

If both sides are working collectively and with that a mean in the future they are taking their media rights to market as a package, it actually probably makes sense for the Big 10 to fill the holes in their collective national footprint—places like the Bay Area, AZ, and Colorado.

Maybe the end product is:

Big 10: +ND, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Ariz St, Colorado
SEC: +FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT, Miami, GT/L’ville

The joint Big/SEC collective is truly national—Boston and Hartford are about the only major markets who aren’t a part of the footprint and New England has never been a collegiate sports hotbed.

Its probably a bigger group than necessary but the extra 8 or so members can help absorb losses and provide inventory to the T2 and T3 rights.

I know that it annoys you every time that I point this out, but a collectively agreed upon cap on membership is a blatant per se violation of antitrust laws. This is the problem with every proposal that is predicated on the parties “getting in a room together” regarding realignment.

The Big 10 would never take Cal or Stanford. They already have the top 2 Cali Programs.

End game is when the big 10 gobbles up the ACC. The finish off by gobbling up the SEC. One conference is coast to coast the other is regional.

(03-03-2024 09:15 PM)Fanofreason Wrote:  The Big 10 would never take Cal or Stanford. They already have the top 2 Cali Programs.

End game is when the big 10 gobbles up the ACC. The finish off by gobbling up the SEC. One conference is coast to coast the other is regional.

How can the BIG gobble up the SEC while allowing the SEC to exist as a regional conference? That makes no sense.

(03-03-2024 09:10 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’re in a rare place where I think you could realistically put two men together in a room, the Big 10 and SEC commissioners, and hammer out a consensus agreement on what the top level of college sports looks like and who gets to be a part of it. Below is a summary of what I think each side’s goals and objectives are:

Big 10–
1. wants Notre Dame and wants the SEC to agree to a post season that puts extreme pressure on ND to join a conference to ensure access.

2. would like a toe hold in FL

3. has interest in the VA/NC region

SEC—
1. wants to control a majority of the state of FL

2. wants to prevent incursions/competition into the Southeast, including VA/NC


————
If both sides were willing to come to an agreement that 24 as their membership cap, I think there could be a consensus that makes everyone relatively happy.

Conceding ND to the Big 10 is a relatively easy move so long as the SEC gets something in return, like let’s say FSU.

I also don’t see VA/NC as being critical to the Big 10. Maybe they give that up for Miami and an agreement that keeps the SEC from expanding beyond Missouri in the Midwest (Kansas). If they are in step though, that FL presence isn’t as necessary.

If both sides are working collectively and with that a mean in the future they are taking their media rights to market as a package, it actually probably makes sense for the Big 10 to fill the holes in their collective national footprint—places like the Bay Area, AZ, and Colorado.

Maybe the end product is:

Big 10: +ND, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Ariz St, Colorado
SEC: +FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT, Miami, GT/L’ville

The joint Big/SEC collective is truly national—Boston and Hartford are about the only major markets who aren’t a part of the footprint and New England has never been a collegiate sports hotbed.

Its probably a bigger group than necessary but the extra 8 or so members can help absorb losses and provide inventory to the T2 and T3 rights.

I know that it annoys you every time that I point this out, but a collectively agreed upon cap on membership is a blatant per se violation of antitrust laws. This is the problem with every proposal that is predicated on the parties “getting in a room together” regarding realignment.

Cap perhaps isn’t the right term. What they’d be agreeing to would be the size of their conferences for the beginning of this new combined effort. It need not be an absolute cap—just a starting point. There’d be nothing to preclude future expansion (although the likelihood of such a later move would be questionable)

(03-03-2024 08:18 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 05:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’re in a rare place where I think you could realistically put two men together in a room, the Big 10 and SEC commissioners, and hammer out a consensus agreement on what the top level of college sports looks like and who gets to be a part of it. Below is a summary of what I think each side’s goals and objectives are:

Big 10–
1. wants Notre Dame and wants the SEC to agree to a post season that puts extreme pressure on ND to join a conference to ensure access.

2. would like a toe hold in FL

3. has interest in the VA/NC region

SEC—
1. wants to control a majority of the state of FL

2. wants to prevent incursions/competition into the Southeast, including VA/NC


————
If both sides were willing to come to an agreement that 24 as their membership cap, I think there could be a consensus that makes everyone relatively happy.

Conceding ND to the Big 10 is a relatively easy move so long as the SEC gets something in return, like let’s say FSU.

I also don’t see VA/NC as being critical to the Big 10. Maybe they give that up for Miami and an agreement that keeps the SEC from expanding beyond Missouri in the Midwest (Kansas). If they are in step though, that FL presence isn’t as necessary.

If both sides are working collectively and with that a mean in the future they are taking their media rights to market as a package, it actually probably makes sense for the Big 10 to fill the holes in their collective national footprint—places like the Bay Area, AZ, and Colorado.

Maybe the end product is:

Big 10: +ND, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Ariz St, Colorado
SEC: +FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT, Miami, GT/L’ville

The joint Big/SEC collective is truly national—Boston and Hartford are about the only major markets who aren’t a part of the footprint and New England has never been a collegiate sports hotbed.

Its probably a bigger group than necessary but the extra 8 or so members can help absorb losses and provide inventory to the T2 and T3 rights.

I think you are missing one step here.

FOX bends Petitti's ear on what they feel they must have: Notre Dame to cover the value of other moves. A toe hold in Florida for recruiting connections. A toe hold in Texas for the same.

Big 10 agrees to suspend AAU requirements for T.C.U.. Big 10 agrees to pursue FSU for 35% of the Florida College Sports viewers. Big 10 then gets clearance for the next 3 additions of their choice.

ESPN bends Sankey's ear. They want to keep Duke, UNC and Virginia. They want to keep the majority of the Florida market so Miami or FSU. They want the final jewel of the Big 12, Kansas. So, the SEC's hands are tied on 5 moves in the Carolinas and Virginia. Miami or FSU so 6. Kansas so 7. The SEC has one choice, Clemson or Colorado, or Georgia Tech. The SEC takes Clemson.

Why in the hell would this be so? UVa and UNC simply refuse to cooperate unless the gang stays together. You could simply bypass them and let the SEC move to 20 with Clemson, FSU if they could get them, Kansas and Miami, but all that does is delay the ultimate settlement and ESPN isn't free to just let the ACC contract lapse unless they've secured what they want.

Clemson, Duke, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech take the SEC to 24. Except for FSU and Georgia Tech ESPN keeps the hold it wants over the region.

FOX gets FSU's 35% of the Florida market, Notre Dame does join the Big 10, T.C.U is #21, and the Big 10 picks up Georgia Tech, Stanford, and Arizona State to go to 24.

FOX is appeased, ESPN pays for what they want. The SEC stays essentially regional. And the Big 10 adds another academic stalwart and a pair of FOI (friends of the Irish).

This is a response to both of you:

I think that the 2 of them could agree on just about whatever they want and the networks would go along with it. However, what they want today is not necessarily what they wanted 5 years ago or even 5 weeks ago. B1G Presidents have a long and distinguished history in particular of making life difficult for their Commissioner. Delany struggled mightily before finally getting PSU across the finish line. Warren was run out of town (allegedly) when he pushed too hard on things like pay for play and a much-bigger expansion strategy that the Presidents weren't ready for. Let us also remember that there's a ton of overlap between B1G and Pac admins. Do those clueless Pac admins move to the B1G and all of sudden figure out how important Athletics/football are? I think not.

Petitti might WANT to add a bunch of schools that don't conform to B1G standards or expectations, but I'm sure what incentive his schools and their Presidents have to agree to it. They're already in the cat bird's seat next to the SEC, and they're not going to be enthusiastic about bringing a bunch of "lesser" (in their minds) institutions like FSU, TCU or Clemson, especially after they allegedly passed on OUT b/c of OU's academics a few years ago.

And from the SEC Presidents perspective? A bunch of them have just kind of stayed in the same place for over 90 years and watched the center of the College Football Universe gravitate towards Birmingham, but there are now 6 that clearly remember days before they were in the SEC. Adding a bunch more schools is going to be tough to justify when those schools are more like Washington and UCLA (or NC St and Ok St) than they are like Texas and OU. If it's just 2, and those 2 provide all the benefits that FSU and Clemson provide (like winning, strong programs, great fan support, great media ratings, great locations, block the B1G)? Ok, I think that we'll get unanimous support for them. But, after that? Someone had better show up with a VERY LARGE checkbook and a reasonable explanation for how bringing in a bunch of non-Flagship, non-AAU programs with little to no history of football excellence is going to pad everyone's wallet.

My prediction is that the SEC adds FSU and Clemson, today, tomorrow, whenever they figure out their ACC situation. Miami and UNC will quite likely be 19/20 in either of the P2. After that nothing happens unless and until ND ever decides they're bored with Independence.

Let's refresh what I've said.
1. Occam's Razor: Only FSU gets out of the ACC and the SEC adds Kansas to go with them picking up a football championship contender and a hoops blue blood and the SEC and Big 10 stop at 18, the ACC stops at 16 or 18 plus N.D. Big 12 adds WSU and OSU.

2. The networks push for the inventory they want, or need for a super 2. The SEC picks up 4 to 20 and the Big 10 2 to 20, and if the Big 10 and SEC are going to be the only 2 conferences in a breakaway it could be to 24 or 28 each. But if the Big 12 makes the jump as the lower paid part of the new upper tier 20 to 24 would be about it.

I haven't changed any of my thoughts. Muskie's hypothetical was sitting down working out a Big 10 and SEC in an upper tier breakaway. There are too many important connections for some of those to be included to only have just UNC, UVA, FSU, Clemson, Duke and Kansas. At 24 most of those get worked out keeping key rivalries alive and overcoming some of the objections.

Define the end game and the number changes based upon what it is you are trying to achieve. Exclusivity can be had at 2 x 20. That yields 20 games a weekend. If NBC airs 2, ABC airs 2, CBS airs 2, ESPN and FS1 air 3 each, ESPN2 and FS2 3 each, and ESPNU 3 each and the SECN and BTN two each how many games do you need? 25
So let's say 1 station say ESPNU can do with only 2. Now you need 24 which means 48 teams which means a 2 x 24. Which is why I have said and will continue to say that inventory requirements for FOX and ESPN will dictate the size of the conferences in the upper tier. If that's the case ESPN and FOX will find a way to pay for 4 more each.

The 16-team playoff derived from 8 divisional champs in 2 conferences with 8 more at large which should earn around 2.5-2.7 billion is what pays for the extra schools.

Inventory, and not the accretive ability of the addition itself will determine how many schools are in the upper tier.

(03-03-2024 05:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’re in a rare place where I think you could realistically put two men together in a room, the Big 10 and SEC commissioners, and hammer out a consensus agreement on what the top level of college sports looks like and who gets to be a part of it. Below is a summary of what I think each side’s goals and objectives are:

Big 10–
1. wants Notre Dame and wants the SEC to agree to a post season that puts extreme pressure on ND to join a conference to ensure access.

2. would like a toe hold in FL

3. has interest in the VA/NC region

SEC—
1. wants to control a majority of the state of FL

2. wants to prevent incursions/competition into the Southeast, including VA/NC


————
If both sides were willing to come to an agreement that 24 as their membership cap, I think there could be a consensus that makes everyone relatively happy.

Conceding ND to the Big 10 is a relatively easy move so long as the SEC gets something in return, like let’s say FSU.

I also don’t see VA/NC as being critical to the Big 10. Maybe they give that up for Miami and an agreement that keeps the SEC from expanding beyond Missouri in the Midwest (Kansas). If they are in step though, that FL presence isn’t as necessary.

If both sides are working collectively and with that a mean in the future they are taking their media rights to market as a package, it actually probably makes sense for the Big 10 to fill the holes in their collective national footprint—places like the Bay Area, AZ, and Colorado.

Maybe the end product is:

Big 10: +ND, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Ariz St, Colorado
SEC: +FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT, Miami, GT/L’ville

The joint Big/SEC collective is truly national—Boston and Hartford are about the only major markets who aren’t a part of the footprint and New England has never been a collegiate sports hotbed.

Its probably a bigger group than necessary but the extra 8 or so members can help absorb losses and provide inventory to the T2 and T3 rights.

I think you are missing one step here.

FOX bends Petitti's ear on what they feel they must have: Notre Dame to cover the value of other moves. A toe hold in Florida for recruiting connections. A toe hold in Texas for the same.

Big 10 agrees to suspend AAU requirements for T.C.U.. Big 10 agrees to pursue FSU for 35% of the Florida College Sports viewers. Big 10 then gets clearance for the next 3 additions of their choice.

ESPN bends Sankey's ear. They want to keep Duke, UNC and Virginia. They want to keep the majority of the Florida market so Miami or FSU. They want the final jewel of the Big 12, Kansas. So, the SEC's hands are tied on 5 moves in the Carolinas and Virginia. Miami or FSU so 6. Kansas so 7. The SEC has one choice, Clemson or Colorado, or Georgia Tech. The SEC takes Clemson.

Why in the hell would this be so? UVa and UNC simply refuse to cooperate unless the gang stays together. You could simply bypass them and let the SEC move to 20 with Clemson, FSU if they could get them, Kansas and Miami, but all that does is delay the ultimate settlement and ESPN isn't free to just let the ACC contract lapse unless they've secured what they want.

Clemson, Duke, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech take the SEC to 24. Except for FSU and Georgia Tech ESPN keeps the hold it wants over the region.

FOX gets FSU's 35% of the Florida market, Notre Dame does join the Big 10, T.C.U is #21, and the Big 10 picks up Georgia Tech, Stanford, and Arizona State to go to 24.

FOX is appeased, ESPN pays for what they want. The SEC stays essentially regional. And the Big 10 adds another academic stalwart and a pair of FOI (friends of the Irish).

I’m working from the assumption that they are building out their membership with the idea that for the next cycle, there will be no Big 10 package and SEC package—they’ll be packaging content and courting all bidders. No more of ESPN and FOX pitting the two leagues against each other.

While the networks will probably not be thrilled about the “content” making a power play and flexing their advantage, it would open up the opportunity for them to access parts of the country they can’t access with their current content portfolios.

Take what JR said, probably flipping Miami and FSU (Miami to the B1G along with TCU as a compromise between FOX and the B1G presidents, and FSU to the SEC), take what bullet said, and combine it together. Since Sankey has been a conference commissioner longer than Pettiti, Sankey becomes the senior conference commissioner, Pettiti the junior conference commissioner. All tv contracts are torn up, and redone, ESPN & FOX take the windows they want, NBC and CBS get the leftovers. This new comibined league begins to put pressure on Notre Dame to join. I think Notre Dame caves in this scenario, but I have been wrong before.

(03-03-2024 10:15 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 05:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’re in a rare place where I think you could realistically put two men together in a room, the Big 10 and SEC commissioners, and hammer out a consensus agreement on what the top level of college sports looks like and who gets to be a part of it. Below is a summary of what I think each side’s goals and objectives are:

Big 10–
1. wants Notre Dame and wants the SEC to agree to a post season that puts extreme pressure on ND to join a conference to ensure access.

2. would like a toe hold in FL

3. has interest in the VA/NC region

SEC—
1. wants to control a majority of the state of FL

2. wants to prevent incursions/competition into the Southeast, including VA/NC


————
If both sides were willing to come to an agreement that 24 as their membership cap, I think there could be a consensus that makes everyone relatively happy.

Conceding ND to the Big 10 is a relatively easy move so long as the SEC gets something in return, like let’s say FSU.

I also don’t see VA/NC as being critical to the Big 10. Maybe they give that up for Miami and an agreement that keeps the SEC from expanding beyond Missouri in the Midwest (Kansas). If they are in step though, that FL presence isn’t as necessary.

If both sides are working collectively and with that a mean in the future they are taking their media rights to market as a package, it actually probably makes sense for the Big 10 to fill the holes in their collective national footprint—places like the Bay Area, AZ, and Colorado.

Maybe the end product is:

Big 10: +ND, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Ariz St, Colorado
SEC: +FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT, Miami, GT/L’ville

The joint Big/SEC collective is truly national—Boston and Hartford are about the only major markets who aren’t a part of the footprint and New England has never been a collegiate sports hotbed.

Its probably a bigger group than necessary but the extra 8 or so members can help absorb losses and provide inventory to the T2 and T3 rights.

I think you are missing one step here.

FOX bends Petitti's ear on what they feel they must have: Notre Dame to cover the value of other moves. A toe hold in Florida for recruiting connections. A toe hold in Texas for the same.

Big 10 agrees to suspend AAU requirements for T.C.U.. Big 10 agrees to pursue FSU for 35% of the Florida College Sports viewers. Big 10 then gets clearance for the next 3 additions of their choice.

ESPN bends Sankey's ear. They want to keep Duke, UNC and Virginia. They want to keep the majority of the Florida market so Miami or FSU. They want the final jewel of the Big 12, Kansas. So, the SEC's hands are tied on 5 moves in the Carolinas and Virginia. Miami or FSU so 6. Kansas so 7. The SEC has one choice, Clemson or Colorado, or Georgia Tech. The SEC takes Clemson.

Why in the hell would this be so? UVa and UNC simply refuse to cooperate unless the gang stays together. You could simply bypass them and let the SEC move to 20 with Clemson, FSU if they could get them, Kansas and Miami, but all that does is delay the ultimate settlement and ESPN isn't free to just let the ACC contract lapse unless they've secured what they want.

Clemson, Duke, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech take the SEC to 24. Except for FSU and Georgia Tech ESPN keeps the hold it wants over the region.

FOX gets FSU's 35% of the Florida market, Notre Dame does join the Big 10, T.C.U is #21, and the Big 10 picks up Georgia Tech, Stanford, and Arizona State to go to 24.

FOX is appeased, ESPN pays for what they want. The SEC stays essentially regional. And the Big 10 adds another academic stalwart and a pair of FOI (friends of the Irish).

I’m working from the assumption that they are building out their membership with the idea that for the next cycle, there will be no Big 10 package and SEC package—they’ll be packaging content and courting all bidders. No more of ESPN and FOX pitting the two leagues against each other.

While the networks will probably not be thrilled about the “content” making a power play and flexing their advantage, it would open up the opportunity for them to access parts of the country they can’t access with their current content portfolios.

I see no need for the Big 10 and SEC to change their natures too much to accomplish this and sharing media rights was a given. FOX and ESPN will cooperate on the carriage, sublet to the other networks and make their money on the closed product line. Together it works to all of our advantages. An opt in though will have to be allowed and if enough do a third, though likely lesser paid conference may be needed.