After Florida State and Louisville's departure to the SEC.........

The ACC could then backfill with USF and Tulane to get back to 17.
With Notre Dame's 5 games the ACC is in a good position to operate with an odd number of teams.

The SEC is not adding Louisville. L’ville won’t get the votes. It won’t be put on the table. When FSU leaves, and if Clemson leaves, the ACC will need a production leader. Louisville is well set for that.

(03-05-2024 05:51 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-04-2024 07:08 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-04-2024 04:14 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  We all assume 4-7 members are leaving the ACC when FSU opens the flood gate.

Is there a scenario where FSU is the only exiting ACC member?

Sure.

a.) A P2 conference adds FSU
b.) paired with Kansas
c.) the ACC backfills with USF.
d.) the Big12 backfills with Oregon State
e.) Washington State/PAC "merges" with the MWC in some way

done.

I don't believe that any school will be taken out of the Big 12 to join the SEC, B1G or ACC.

If the SEC needs a #18 to go along with FSU, then the most likely choice would be a second school from the ACC......Louisville.

Please God no. SEC basketball is gross and our football would be buried beside the Wildcats, Commodores, and Gamecocks.

(03-04-2024 05:18 PM)Bull Wrote:  Doesn't it basically come down to who amongst them gets a P2 invite? Every single one of them will bail. So the B12 and the SEC are the 'deciders', not anyone in the ACC currently?

I agree that it comes down to whether they have P2 invites. But just FWIW, I think the B12 could have something to say as well.

What I mean is, should FSU leave, and then should UNC and Clemson follow suit, which I think would happen, I think a school like Louisville might seek to exit the ACC for the B12, if they could do so for a reasonable price. Granted, given the much smaller media deal the B12 has, the exit price might be too high. But if it isn't, they could well want out of a rump ACC even in favor of the nB12. Maybe a couple others too.

It's too bad that the egg head leadership of the ACC mismanaged the conference so much that it created this "untenable" situation for FSU. The ACC could have been thought of as a P3; not so far behind the SEC and B1G in football perception and media payout and being a distant first in basketball.

(03-04-2024 04:14 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  We all assume 4-7 members are leaving the ACC when FSU opens the flood gate.

Is there a scenario where FSU is the only exiting ACC member?

Until when?

It's not hard to imagine a plausible scenario where Florida State picks the lock and leaves but nobody else goes out the door until, say, around 2030. If the price of Florida State's exit proves very steep, for example, some schools might want to wait out the GoR a little longer.

Imagining one school leaving and everyone else staying together as one big happy until 2036 or beyond... That's a longer reach.

We already know at least seven ACC member schools have been testing the GoR for cracks. It may not just be down to institutional personality that Florida State challenged the GoR first. This could reflect a group strategy.

Florida's transparency laws are exceptionally tough. Having the public university in Florida challenge first is a great way for all concerned either to learn what's in the contracts and correspondence, or to pressure a secrecy-obsessed league office to lower the price of exit.

(03-05-2024 08:28 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(03-04-2024 04:14 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  We all assume 4-7 members are leaving the ACC when FSU opens the flood gate.

Is there a scenario where FSU is the only exiting ACC member?

Until when?

It's not hard to imagine a plausible scenario where Florida State picks the lock and leaves but nobody else goes out the door until, say, around 2030. If the price of Florida State's exit proves very steep, for example, some schools might want to wait out the GoR a little longer.

Imagining one school leaving and everyone else staying together as one big happy until 2036 or beyond... That's a longer reach.

We already know at least seven ACC member schools have been testing the GoR for cracks. It may not just be down to institutional personality that Florida State challenged the GoR first. This could reflect a group strategy.

Florida's transparency laws are exceptionally tough. Having the public university in Florida challenge first is a great way for all concerned either to learn what's in the contracts and correspondence, or to pressure a secrecy-obsessed league office to lower the price of exit.

I was thinking only FSU by 2026
The rest sticking together till 2036

Does North Carolina have enough influence to keep the ACC together?

No.

B1G wants UNC

I watched the Roy Williams/Coach K reunion thing on ESPN (excellent to watch if you are a CBB fan - and I despise Coach K)

They made the point that every year in the Top 5 rated CBB games, 2 are Duke/Carolina, more if they meet in the conf tourn...

...no way the realignment gods eliminate one of the highest rated CBB games... so I am convinced that Duke goes with UNC

If the only way out now is to pay full value of grant of rights and Florida State takes on massive loans to do it, they could definitely be it for now. It might be too expensive for others (especially since would also be benefiting from Florida State's penalty) and they could decide to wait a few years until the cost naturally lowers.

It would be nice if they took Miami with them!!

(03-04-2024 04:14 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  We all assume 4-7 members are leaving the ACC when FSU opens the flood gate.

Is there a scenario where FSU is the only exiting ACC member?

Yes. Unless the FSU lawsuit dramatically transforms the economic impact and usefulness of GORs, FSU is likely the only school to leave the ACC in the next 6+ years.

FWIW - I never assumed that 4-7 members are leaving the ACC when/if FSU leaves. There are countless future scenarios, and the excitement from the recent PAC deconstruction is biasing current thinking on what will happen to the ACC.

Miami or Clemson will leave with them.

Its really a decision of what the B1G and SEC want to do, isn't it?

It's the only scenario. None of the other ACC schools are stupid enough to pay well over 500 million (or closer to a billion?) to leave.

(03-05-2024 03:56 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  Miami or Clemson will leave with them.

Its really a decision of what the B1G and SEC want to do, isn't it?

What the P2 want, the P2 get.

Open the store and they go shopping.

Clemson is privately getting their ducks in a row to follow FSU. It is preparing while waiting.