(03-18-2024 09:11 PM)LeeNobody Wrote:  https://www.sportskeeda.com/college-foot...-departure

It seems that UNC AD is coming to similar "buyout" numbers

1. That's not always a reliable site though this is sourced.

2. This is typical negotiation tactics. FSU gave a top of 572, and hopes for lower, UNC sets a higher top trying to get FSU's lower number higher.

3. It's likely another stall tactic to keep the public interested in the wrong thing, while the real thing gets worked out behind the scenes. For example: ESPN agrees to waive the contract extension if the properties it wants to remain with ESPN agrees to do so in another conference.

I know, but ESPN has no reason to do that it costs them so much more?

But it doesn't. Move 7 to the SEC (perhaps Clemson, FSU, UNC, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke) and it costs them an additional 245 million. Let 4 go to the Big 10 (maybe Notre Dame, Miami, Georgia Tech, Stanford) and FOX and they save 135 million. Let B.C., Pitt, Syracuse, and Louisville head to the Big 12 and they save another 80 million on the split with FOX. Wake Forest and Cal with SMU split the exit fees. Cal heads to the New PAC/MWC, Wake to the AAC where ESPN saves 30 million more, and SMU likely goes with.

The moves are accomplished for 15 million which is more than eclipsed by the closing of the ACCN. ESPN comes out a bit ahead, has the same territory it wanted to master under their control with the supermajority in each state of the viewers for maximized ad revenue, and the Big 10 thinks about picking up UTAH and TCU to round it out. If TCU heads to the Big 10 then SMU heads to the Big 12.

And that's the kind of thing that could happen. ESPN keeps what it wants most, control over the SE and SW. FOX gets what it wants most N.D. with access to Florida and Georgia which helps attract Notre Dame along with Stanford.

Whatever winds up in the Big 12 they split, and perhaps the LHN gets converted to a channel for the Big 12 which ESPN would control because they hold the T3 rights in the New Big 12. The SEC finishes out with Kansas, TCU appeases FOX and CBS/NBC because of the DFW DMA. Stanford appeases the academicians in the Big 10. And Notre Dame closes a big whole in their advertising windows in the Northern Midwest.

Voila, the deal is announced in late July and the new upper tier is born.

(03-18-2024 05:11 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-18-2024 04:22 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-18-2024 04:15 PM)DemonDeke Wrote:  

(03-08-2024 09:10 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-08-2024 07:39 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  ^^^ THIS ^^^

For these reasons, USF should know that if FSU leaves (and maybe even if they don't), they are the top G5 candidate and one of the top overall candidates for further ACC expansion/replacement.

I'm going on record right now in saying that the ACC only invites USF if BOTH FSU and Miami leave. And if both FSU and Miami leave, it's not the same ACC that we see right now. If only 1 leaves, then the ACC will stay away from USF, but they'll send feelers out to UCF.

I still find it telling that the Big 12 considered USF in 2016, but in the midst of a near death experience 2021, USF was nowhere to be found. Here's the list:

The Big 12 ended up with 12 finalists for expansion in 2016: Air Force, Brigham Young, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Connecticut, Houston, Rice, South Florida, Southern Methodist, Temple and Tulane.

Other applications were received. Schools that did not make the cut were Arkansas State, Boise State, East Carolina, Memphis, New Mexico, Northern Illinois, San Diego State and Nevada-Las Vegas.

This time around, the top contenders are expected to be BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Boise State, SMU and Memphis.

https://www.oklahoman.com/story/sports/2...647450001/

We all know who the chosen 4 were, and we all have endlessly discussed the other 3 in the interim. We've also seen SMU since jump to the ACC, Memphis make lots of noise about their new stadium and other improvements, and the Big 12 flirt aggressively with UConn. What happened to USF that relegated them to the same "afterthought" status as Rice, Temple, Tulane, and CSU? And of those 4 + USF, hasn't Tulane done more to attract positive attention than USF in the past couple years? USF has faded a bit, like Boise St though for different reasons.

I get it. I understand the enthusiasm about USF, their enrollment is huge and I've given then plenty of props for making the AAU. But I also think that it's important to view these things anew regularly, and the only current reason I can see for slotting USF ahead of schools that would otherwise attract more interest from the M2 is their location, a reason that is less important today than it was a few years ago, and could very well fade even more in importance over time.

Everything is a comparison, and USF's comparison to peers and near-peers like UConn, UCF, Memphis, SDSU, Tulane, BYU, UH, SMU, Boise St, etc etc is generally weaker today than it was a decade ago, despite their recent AAU ascension.

That was for the Big 12.

I think the ACC would feel the need to be in Florida, and then talk themselves into USF being okay because at least they are an AAU school.

The Big 12 doesn't care about that.

UCF may be as good or better a school than Louisville, but Louisville isn't the baseline. Also, UCF is in the Big 12 with a GOR anyway. If the ACC is to pluck Big 12 schools, I think WVU and UC would be at the top of the list, with TCU as a longer shot.

One could argue that UCF is as good or better a school than WVU or UC. But WVU has more in common geographically with the center of gravity of the modern ACC. And UC goes with Louisville and WVU. (Which is why, alternatively, the only school I could see the Big 12 poaching from the ACC is Louisville, unless it were a desperate to exit and a got-over-its skis FSU.)

If the ACC loses big state schools like FSU or Clemson or (God forbid) UNC, I think that the remaining members would lean even more toward the academic side.

UCF is above average academically in the Big 12. Well, in the 12 team Big 12 with the original 4 adds and sans OUT. They're probably right at average in the 16 school Big 12, clearly behind the 5 AAU schools, but somewhere in that 6-12 range. West Virginia was never appealing Academically to the ACC, nothing has changed there. If the ACC was able to successfully steal Big 12 schools, there would be a whole bunch they'd talk to first before getting to WVU.

In fact, I just looked at 2 different pages, one said their avg SAT is 1099, another said it's 1110. I believe that's the lowest in the P4. Their #216 ranking in USN&WR is also poor. I don't blame the Big 12 for inviting them, and I don't blame the Big 12 for keeping them around as they could very well serve as a travel buddy for potential future ACC conquests, but I also find it highly unlikely that an ACC that had the ability poach WVU would want to do so. ie, if the ACC is so desperate that they're talking to WVU, then WVU will already be talking to NC St, Louisville, VT, GT, UVA, Pitt, etc etc to gauge interest in a slide on over to the Big 12.

WVU might be the most valuable member of the Big 12 other than UT, OU and KU.
West Virginia diaspora are everywhere. There's a guy on the Texas board who is in media says WVU has brought the Big 12 into markets all over the east coast. With their time in the Big East, people in the east have heard of them. They were in and won 3 BCS bowls, over Georgia, Oklahoma and Clemson.

I didn't say that WVU wouldn't bring value, I said that their Academics would keep them off the ACC radar unless the ACC was so desperate that there was no chance that WVU would even talk to them. However, to address your point, WVU is very strong in regions in which the ACC is already very strong. Like SMU for the ACC, WVU just has a lot more value to a Conference that's a long way away instead of the one that's in their own back yard. If UNC and both Virginia schools leave? Well, sure the ACC might want WVU then, but they'd get hung up on.

(03-18-2024 05:37 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-18-2024 05:29 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(03-06-2024 07:19 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  I decided to try to ballpark a number for FSU "buyout" of the ACC. The term "buyout" encompasses two elements: the exit fee (per reporting: 3x annual revenue) and buyback of the media rights from the GOR( this is the total value of the future media payouts over the length of the contract)
Annual Revenue of the ACC:
Based on Analysis by Hokie Mark, the current ACC revenue is 38.4 million a year, but these numbers do not include the pro rata shares from SMU, Cal and Stanford. It has been reported the Cal and Stanford each took a 30% share to start, and SMU took nothing. We don't know how long Cal and Stanford took a 30% share, so I am assuming that they will eventually get to a full share combined over the the course of the contract. This means there are 2 shares of 38.4 mil to be split among the 14 ACC members. 38.4*2/14= 5.5 mill. This brings us to 43.9. An undisclosed amount of money will be going to the success initiative. There will be fluctuations based on bowl payouts, and cord cutting after a projected rise for the additions of new markets. I factor these in by reducing starting payout to 40 mill for 2024.

Next there is the 4.5% T1 escalator that Hokie Mark's Analysis and reporting remains in place. It would be to difficult to breakout the T1 payouts so I discount this to a 4% escalator.

The Exit Fee:
Exit Fee, as stated before is 3x annual payout 120 mill
ACC media payouts
For each year I took 40 and added a 4% increase in each year and totaled this for the length of the contract .Each year the buy out drops by that amount.

The combined amount of the exit fee and GOR buyback are as follows:

2025: $747 mill
2026: $706 mill
2027: $663 mill
2028: $618 mill
2029: $571 mill
2030: $522 mill
2031: $472 mill
2032: $413 mill
2033: $359 mill
2034: $304 mill
2035: $245 mill
2036: $184 mill

ACC could likely argue for damages as a result of FSU breaking the contract ,but I'd say that is is a ballpark of the floor by year.

Thoughts?

Meh. I still think the ACC has a huge damages problem. How can the ACC justify that it and its members will be harmed to the tune of half a billion dollars or more if the conference and its members are in the same - or better - financial position after FSU leaves? It isn't - and won't be - hard to calculate.

FSU's primary argument is that the ACC's GOR penalty is grossly excessive and overly broad.

Well, there's the difference, isn't it? SEC: "It just means more!" ACC: "It just costs more!"

The thing is one of two things is true if the ACC insists on an exorbitant fee. 1. The ACC is extremely valuable, and FSU is fouling it up. 2. FSU is extremely valuable, and the ACC is losing their cash cow which everyone attaches too like a remora to a shark.

Hint: The ACC has, until the final raid on the Big 12, been the 4th best paid conference out of 5 so, so much for being highly valuable. I'll take Door #2 Monty! Either way the courts will see it for what it is.

It costs FSU some big money, but nowhere in the ball park of 4-6 hundred million.

Oh, and exit fees? To date it has basically been limited to funds withheld before annual distributions are made. Why? Enforceability of one state over another is questionable. FSU will owe money for the GOR and that's what will be negotiated.

If this thing actually goes to trial, it will come down to one thing: who controls FSU's rights? If it's FSU then they can get away for nothing, or next to nothing with only 1-2 years of Conference distribution exit fees. If it's the ACC? They don't have to sell the rights to FSU at any price, so they could offer them for $5, $5b, or anything in between. The very uncertainty is a strong incentive for all parties to settle, and if this was 2034 instead of 2024 that's exactly what would happen. As I've said all along, there's still that strong incentive for the ACC to settle, and I'm sure they're engaged in settlement talks, but they have every incentive to ask for the moon and very little incentive to err on the side of asking for too little. FSU, otoh, has shown how anxious they are to get out, so they don't have a particularly strong hand in settlement negotiations unless and until they start getting favorable judgements.

(03-18-2024 05:46 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(03-18-2024 05:06 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-18-2024 04:59 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(03-18-2024 04:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the recent CFP deal has likely disabused any of the schools with plausible P2 prospects (FSU, NC, VA, Clemson, Miami) of any notions that the ACC can remain ballpark-competitive with respect to $$$. And with respect to respect, as the ACC is now clearly a second-level league, as IIRC an FSU official put it a few months ago.

So if anything, I expect FSU to be even more vigorous in trying to fight their way out, with the other schools listed secretly cheering them on, even as they remain silent to keep their own suits clean, so to speak.

I don’t disagree with you. FSU would be more willing to pay to get out.

I would have said "FSU would be willing to pay more to get out"...

Oops. You are right. Thanks for bearing with this non-native speaker.

What you wrote was fine, I was just trying to be funny.

(03-18-2024 09:43 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-18-2024 05:37 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-18-2024 05:29 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(03-06-2024 07:19 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  I decided to try to ballpark a number for FSU "buyout" of the ACC. The term "buyout" encompasses two elements: the exit fee (per reporting: 3x annual revenue) and buyback of the media rights from the GOR( this is the total value of the future media payouts over the length of the contract)
Annual Revenue of the ACC:
Based on Analysis by Hokie Mark, the current ACC revenue is 38.4 million a year, but these numbers do not include the pro rata shares from SMU, Cal and Stanford. It has been reported the Cal and Stanford each took a 30% share to start, and SMU took nothing. We don't know how long Cal and Stanford took a 30% share, so I am assuming that they will eventually get to a full share combined over the the course of the contract. This means there are 2 shares of 38.4 mil to be split among the 14 ACC members. 38.4*2/14= 5.5 mill. This brings us to 43.9. An undisclosed amount of money will be going to the success initiative. There will be fluctuations based on bowl payouts, and cord cutting after a projected rise for the additions of new markets. I factor these in by reducing starting payout to 40 mill for 2024.

Next there is the 4.5% T1 escalator that Hokie Mark's Analysis and reporting remains in place. It would be to difficult to breakout the T1 payouts so I discount this to a 4% escalator.

The Exit Fee:
Exit Fee, as stated before is 3x annual payout 120 mill
ACC media payouts
For each year I took 40 and added a 4% increase in each year and totaled this for the length of the contract .Each year the buy out drops by that amount.

The combined amount of the exit fee and GOR buyback are as follows:

2025: $747 mill
2026: $706 mill
2027: $663 mill
2028: $618 mill
2029: $571 mill
2030: $522 mill
2031: $472 mill
2032: $413 mill
2033: $359 mill
2034: $304 mill
2035: $245 mill
2036: $184 mill

ACC could likely argue for damages as a result of FSU breaking the contract ,but I'd say that is is a ballpark of the floor by year.

Thoughts?

Meh. I still think the ACC has a huge damages problem. How can the ACC justify that it and its members will be harmed to the tune of half a billion dollars or more if the conference and its members are in the same - or better - financial position after FSU leaves? It isn't - and won't be - hard to calculate.

FSU's primary argument is that the ACC's GOR penalty is grossly excessive and overly broad.

Well, there's the difference, isn't it? SEC: "It just means more!" ACC: "It just costs more!"

The thing is one of two things is true if the ACC insists on an exorbitant fee. 1. The ACC is extremely valuable, and FSU is fouling it up. 2. FSU is extremely valuable, and the ACC is losing their cash cow which everyone attaches too like a remora to a shark.

Hint: The ACC has, until the final raid on the Big 12, been the 4th best paid conference out of 5 so, so much for being highly valuable. I'll take Door #2 Monty! Either way the courts will see it for what it is.

It costs FSU some big money, but nowhere in the ball park of 4-6 hundred million.

Oh, and exit fees? To date it has basically been limited to funds withheld before annual distributions are made. Why? Enforceability of one state over another is questionable. FSU will owe money for the GOR and that's what will be negotiated.

If this thing actually goes to trial, it will come down to one thing: who controls FSU's rights? If it's FSU then they can get away for nothing, or next to nothing with only 1-2 years of Conference distribution exit fees. If it's the ACC? They don't have to sell the rights to FSU at any price, so they could offer them for $5, $5b, or anything in between. The very uncertainty is a strong incentive for all parties to settle, and if this was 2034 instead of 2024 that's exactly what would happen. As I've said all along, there's still that strong incentive for the ACC to settle, and I'm sure they're engaged in settlement talks, but they have every incentive to ask for the moon and very little incentive to err on the side of asking for too little. FSU, otoh, has shown how anxious they are to get out, so they don't have a particularly strong hand in settlement negotiations unless and until they start getting favorable judgements.

Actual damages is what GOR cases come down to in the end. If ESPN honors the contract for the remaining ACC schools through the end of the GOR, which remember could come as early as 2027 if there isn't an option to extend until 2036, then, then the actual damages would be nil, especially since ESPN now has more inventory via Cal, Stanford, and SMU.

(03-18-2024 06:08 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(03-18-2024 05:29 PM)YNot Wrote:  Meh. I still think the ACC has a huge damages problem. How can the ACC justify that it and its members will be harmed to the tune of half a billion dollars or more if the conference and its members are in the same - or better - financial position after FSU leaves? It isn't - and won't be - hard to calculate.

FSU's primary argument is that the ACC's GOR penalty is grossly excessive and overly broad.

This is a HUGE misunderstanding/misrepresentation of the situation.
The "damages" are covered by the Exit Fee, which is only $130 million.
The G-o-R is about repurchasing media rights and has nothing to do with damages.

You are absolutely right about that. And if the ACC wins, they don't have to sell the rights back to FSU, although I'm sure they plan to do so.

But that brings up a different question. How much are those rights worth to the ACC?
The figure FSU calculated was how much they were getting paid, not how much it was worth to the ACC net of the FSU distribution. If ESPN didn't reduce their payout if FSU left, the only value to the ACC would be past 2036, when the GOR doesn't exist. So there is no value to the ACC in that scenario.

(03-18-2024 06:08 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(03-18-2024 05:29 PM)YNot Wrote:  Meh. I still think the ACC has a huge damages problem. How can the ACC justify that it and its members will be harmed to the tune of half a billion dollars or more if the conference and its members are in the same - or better - financial position after FSU leaves? It isn't - and won't be - hard to calculate.

FSU's primary argument is that the ACC's GOR penalty is grossly excessive and overly broad.

This is a HUGE misunderstanding/misrepresentation of the situation.
The "damages" are covered by the Exit Fee, which is only $130 million.
The G-o-R is about repurchasing media rights and has nothing to do with damages.

I agree with this. But nevertheless ....

IMO the media rights inhere with FSU. It's their rights. Now yes, they have licensed them to the ACC for a period of time. But IMO it's not like those rights inhere in the ACC, they inhere in FSU. So if FSU wants them back, the ACC should need to have a good reason to keep them. It can't be "just because" we want to keep this school trapped in the conference for a decade.

So to me, that's where the issue of damages arises. If I'm a judge, I'd ask the ACC "what harm do you suffer if FSU reclaims their rights"? Now if the ACC can show that it would suffer losses, such as say ESPN reducing the amount paid per school, then that would sufficiently answer the question for me and set the basis for a buyout price.

But if that's not the case, then I would be inclined to say FSU can take their rights and go.

Of course IANAL, but that's just my belief here.

Well the real "value" of those rights would be what the ACC could sell them for. They probably couldn't find an independent buyer. Only Notre Dame can do an independent schedule. But they could sell them to the SEC, Big 10 or Big 12. I can't imagine it would be for $440 million.

(03-19-2024 10:22 AM)bullet Wrote:  Well the real "value" of those rights would be what the ACC could sell them for. They probably couldn't find an independent buyer. Only Notre Dame can do an independent schedule. But they could sell them to the SEC, Big 10 or Big 12. I can't imagine it would be for $440 million.

Haven't the rights already been sold by the ACC, to ESPN?

That is always what has fascinated me about the GOR. ESPN's name is all over that document, at least as I recall. Everything about the GOR seems to revolve around needing it to meet the terms of the ESPN agreement.

That's what leads me to believe that ESPN has a role in this, even if they don't want one. If ESPN keeps the ACC whole without FSU, then ....

Now that might be a big "if". As others have noted, one way of looking at this is that ESPN is getting FSU at a bargain right now, so why would they want to pay them more to be in the SEC? Good question, maybe they wouldn't. But if they do ...

(03-19-2024 10:29 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(03-19-2024 10:22 AM)bullet Wrote:  Well the real "value" of those rights would be what the ACC could sell them for. They probably couldn't find an independent buyer. Only Notre Dame can do an independent schedule. But they could sell them to the SEC, Big 10 or Big 12. I can't imagine it would be for $440 million.

Haven't the rights already been sold by the ACC, to ESPN?

That is always what has fascinated me about the GOR. ESPN's name is all over that document, at least as I recall. Everything about the GOR seems to revolve around needing it to meet the terms of the ESPN agreement.

That's what leads me to believe that ESPN has a role in this, even if they don't want one. If ESPN keeps the ACC whole without FSU, then ....

Now that might be a big "if". As others have noted, one way of looking at this is that ESPN is getting FSU at a bargain right now, so why would they want to pay them more to be in the SEC? Good question, maybe they wouldn't. But if they do ...

Well theoretically, the ACC would be selling the rights to receive the payments.