I just checked my Vanguard large cap to compare Biden* vs Trump.

Biden Avg - 11.7% with very high inflation

Trump Avg - 17.25% with 1.5% inflation

(03-21-2024 12:13 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(03-20-2024 03:32 PM)AdoptedMonarch Wrote:  I'd more realistically put the over/under for Biden's announced withdrawal as Democrat nominee as August 2.

Dude, c'mon. There no world where he's withdrawing a couple months before the election. The only thing that would keep him off would be the unmentionable by decent folk.

Diaper rash?

More seriously, a Biden withdrawal now would put the Democrats in total turmoil. Their July convention in Chicago is already a near guaranty for a total -show. With as many problems as the Democrats are already facing with their disastrous performance on virtually every front, the absence of a unifying candidate will turn their July convention into a political Thunderdome, giving rise to unrestrained infighting among countless constituencies.

Those tensions will still exist with Biden still officially declared, but at least they will be somewhat tamped down by the presence of an incumbent having the primary/caucus victories in hand. That means the withdrawal announcement will need to come shortly after the convention. I picked August 2, because it looked to me like the next-available "quiet" Friday.

We'll see in 4.5 months.

(03-21-2024 12:13 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The only thing that would keep him off would be the unmentionable by decent folk.

It's OK to mention a failed MMSE that would get him off the ballot.