I personally don't see why the SEC or Big 10 would want to go past 20 because teams hardly even will play each other at that point. And no one is going to agree to a 10-game conference schedule.

The P3
Big 10 - Clemson, Miami
SEC- FSU, Virginia, UNC
Big 12 - Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, NC State, Louisville.


NACC - Syracuse, Duke, Wake, VT, BC, SMU, Cal, Stanford, Uconn, Memphis.

I think they stand pat at 10 football teams and focus on basketball because there are some potentially good options developing right now. Delaware, Tulane, USF, UNCC, UAB.

Why do they need to go anywhere? They can add whoever they want from Tulane, Memphis, USF, etc. they might even be able to pull from the eastern flank of the Big 12.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

No where—18 - 6 = 12 = still strong enough to survive

(03-28-2024 07:01 PM)b2b Wrote:  Why do they need to go anywhere? They can add whoever they want from Tulane, Memphis, USF, etc. they might even be able to pull from the eastern flank of the Big 12.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Concur but would add they could expand with Oregon State or Utah (no GOR) and the ACC would have a Western division of 4 in a 16 full member conference with Notre Dame as a partial.

Three are coming in. If Clemson, FSU, and UNC leave (likely to the SEC in settlement where ESPN is willing to do this to keep the full rights of all, adding UConn in the East replaces the UNC hoops value and adding Utah or Oregon State adds more market and allows for a cost cutting in travel for the West Coast teams all appease the Irish.

It's the smartest move ESPN could make. They lose nothing, pick up an additional late-night option, and gain UConn.

Then the only question is who is #4 for the SEC? If it is Duke or Virginia enter USF. If it is Kansas, no further additions are needed, and ESPN scratches another itch.

In that world if the Big 10 has to go to 20 without Notre Dame. They need a 5th out West for a division. I think they go after Arizona State as the lone PAC school with a decent valuation. It also adds market. Then I think they go after Colorado to connect it all and place them in the Plains division with Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

(03-28-2024 06:38 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  I personally don't see why the SEC or Big 10 would want to go past 20 because teams hardly even will play each other at that point. And no one is going to agree to a 10-game conference schedule.

The P3
Big 10 - Clemson, Miami
SEC- FSU, Virginia, UNC
Big 12 - Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, NC State, Louisville.


NACC - Syracuse, Duke, Wake, VT, BC, SMU, Cal, Stanford, Uconn, Memphis.

I think they stand pat at 10 football teams and focus on basketball because there are some potentially good options developing right now. Delaware, Tulane, USF, UNCC, UAB.

I see the SEC getting Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia, the BIG getting Kansas and Miami (FL), and the Big XII getting Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech.

(03-28-2024 07:35 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 06:38 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  I personally don't see why the SEC or Big 10 would want to go past 20 because teams hardly even will play each other at that point. And no one is going to agree to a 10-game conference schedule.

The P3
Big 10 - Clemson, Miami
SEC- FSU, Virginia, UNC
Big 12 - Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, NC State, Louisville.


NACC - Syracuse, Duke, Wake, VT, BC, SMU, Cal, Stanford, Uconn, Memphis.

I think they stand pat at 10 football teams and focus on basketball because there are some potentially good options developing right now. Delaware, Tulane, USF, UNCC, UAB.

I see the SEC getting Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia, the BIG getting Kansas and Miami (FL), and the Big XII getting Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech.

I can also see the ACC adding South Florida and Tulane. Here's a list of the teams the ACC should look at adding as well:

Charlotte
Delaware
East Carolina
Rice
Temple
UAB
UMass
UTSA

(03-28-2024 07:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 07:01 PM)b2b Wrote:  Why do they need to go anywhere? They can add whoever they want from Tulane, Memphis, USF, etc. they might even be able to pull from the eastern flank of the Big 12.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Concur but would add they could expand with Oregon State or Utah (no GOR) and the ACC would have a Western division of 4 in a 16 full member conference with Notre Dame as a partial.

Three are coming in. If Clemson, FSU, and UNC leave (likely to the SEC in settlement where ESPN is willing to do this to keep the full rights of all, adding UConn in the East replaces the UNC hoops value and adding Utah or Oregon State adds more market and allows for a cost cutting in travel for the West Coast teams all appease the Irish.

It's the smartest move ESPN could make. They lose nothing, pick up an additional late-night option, and gain UConn.

Then the only question is who is #4 for the SEC? If it is Duke or Virginia enter USF. If it is Kansas, no further additions are needed, and ESPN scratches another itch.

In that world if the Big 10 has to go to 20 without Notre Dame. They need a 5th out West for a division. I think they go after Arizona State as the lone PAC school with a decent valuation. It also adds market. Then I think they go after Colorado to connect it all and place them in the Plains division with Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

If the elite of the ACC bail between the SEC, Big Ten, and Big XII, would Cal and Stanford want to shell out stupid amounts of money, especially for all the non revenue or low revenue sports, to travel cross country for the likes of Memphis and Tulane?

If the ACC that is left after several top tier teams leave is a borderline G5 conference with the ACC logo slapped on, Cal and Stanford might find it better to try and get into the Big XII to at least cut down on likely obsurd travel expenses, or possibly see what happens with Oregon State and Washington State and see if those 2 teams can rebuild the PAC, or use PAC 2 resources to boost the Mountain West.

Both bay area teams have legitimate worries right now about the possibility of having to cut some of their non revenue sports depending on how travel expenses go the next year or so, if OSU and WSU manage go a couple seasons with their Mountain West and WCC interim agreements and not burst into flames by associating with G5 conferences, Cal and Stanford might quietly keep an eye on how the Pac 2/MW deal ultimately shakes out or not.

(03-28-2024 09:00 PM)ETSUfan#2 Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 07:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 07:01 PM)b2b Wrote:  Why do they need to go anywhere? They can add whoever they want from Tulane, Memphis, USF, etc. they might even be able to pull from the eastern flank of the Big 12.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Concur but would add they could expand with Oregon State or Utah (no GOR) and the ACC would have a Western division of 4 in a 16 full member conference with Notre Dame as a partial.

Three are coming in. If Clemson, FSU, and UNC leave (likely to the SEC in settlement where ESPN is willing to do this to keep the full rights of all, adding UConn in the East replaces the UNC hoops value and adding Utah or Oregon State adds more market and allows for a cost cutting in travel for the West Coast teams all appease the Irish.

It's the smartest move ESPN could make. They lose nothing, pick up an additional late-night option, and gain UConn.

Then the only question is who is #4 for the SEC? If it is Duke or Virginia enter USF. If it is Kansas, no further additions are needed, and ESPN scratches another itch.

In that world if the Big 10 has to go to 20 without Notre Dame. They need a 5th out West for a division. I think they go after Arizona State as the lone PAC school with a decent valuation. It also adds market. Then I think they go after Colorado to connect it all and place them in the Plains division with Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

If the elite of the ACC bail between the SEC, Big Ten, and Big XII, would Cal and Stanford want to shell out stupid amounts of money, especially for all the non revenue or low revenue sports, to travel cross country for the likes of Memphis and Tulane?

If the ACC that is left after several top tier teams leave is a borderline G5 conference with the ACC logo slapped on, Cal and Stanford might find it better to try and get into the Big XII to at least cut down on likely obsurd travel expenses, or possibly see what happens with Oregon State and Washington State and see if those 2 teams can rebuild the PAC, or use PAC 2 resources to boost the Mountain West.

Both bay area teams have legitimate worries right now about the possibility of having to cut some of their non revenue sports depending on how travel expenses go the next year or so, if OSU and WSU manage go a couple seasons with their Mountain West and WCC interim agreements and not burst into flames by associating with G5 conferences, Cal and Stanford might quietly keep an eye on how the Pac 2/MW deal ultimately shakes out or not.

You miss the point. ESPN is not going to lose any schools to the Big 10 or FOX. The three who most have to have the increase in revenue will be in the SEC making it. The rest will stay put, earn a little more on the ACCN, get a split of some pretty decent exit fees, and Notre Dame will have what it wants. If the ACC then adds just 2 schools UConn to replace Carolina hoops in value, and Utah or Oregon State (remember Utah isn't under a GOR) then they'll have a 4 team division out west which cuts those travel costs down and Notre Dame and Miami have a cleaner path to the playoffs with Clemson and FSU in the SEC.

If the Big 10 goes to 20 they'll have to take at least one from the West to have a division of 5 and cut down on travel. Arizona State has the best valuation of any out there and then if the 4th team to the SEC isn't Kansas perhaps the Big 10 takes them and if Kansas is already taken Colorado connects their dots. If the Big 12 loses a pair they have Washington State and San Diego State to expand with.

This argument must take into account media rights. If Syracuse, Duke, Wake, VT, BC, SMU, Cal, and Stanford get an AAC-like contract and effectively join the G6, the likelihood of UConn, Memphis, and others jumping at the opportunity decreases severely.

(03-28-2024 09:15 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  This argument must take into account media rights. If Syracuse, Duke, Wake, VT, BC, SMU, Cal, and Stanford get an AAC-like contract and effectively join the G6, the likelihood of UConn, Memphis, and others jumping at the opportunity decreases severely.

Pure crap! What does extension mean? Why 3 for 3? They earn the ACC money they get now, split the exit fees, which will be a solid boost, and gain the expanded markets rate on the ACCN. ESPN is paying the same thing they've been paying. They pay 80 million more (roughly 2 cuts) for another PAC school and UConn. They keep Notre Dame involved as a partial and the Irish will be making north of 80 million with their new deals.

They pay 105 million more for the 3 moving to the SEC but cover that in the added value of the games each will play with the market expansion into North Carolina.

Plus they can quit paying the Big 12 anything when the contract is renewed and let FOX pick them up, and why would they do that? Because with 4 Texas schools and Central Florida that gives Big 10 schools games in those two key states without having to go through ESPN.

ESPN has 3 options a week for late night product instead of 2, has a Texas and California perhaps Oregon or Utah and Connecticut added to the ACCN footprint. It's a win for FOX and for ESPN.

If the SEC goes to 20, I’m not confident the Big 10 does as well unless one of those schools is Notre Dame.

If Florida St, Clemson, UNC, and 4th school TBD are off the table, are there really a set of two pieces left on the board that are attractive enough for the Big 10 to take? UVA/VT certainly aren’t with $80M each or whatever absurd figure the Big 10 is making these days. Stanford isn’t. GT, Kansas, and Colorado aren’t. Miami might be the closest and maybe a FL presence is just valuable enough to FOX to bankroll their addition but I’m not sold on the idea.

ESPN is going to be very careful in how they navigate the SEC’s growth. They’ll only move 2-4 ACC schools out to do it. They need to keep the ACC just alive enough to keep ND happy.

B1G adds FSU, Notre Dame
SEC adds Virginia, UNC, Clemson, Miami
XII adds Georgia Tech, NC State, Virginia Tech, Louisville

ACC adds South Florida, Tulane, East Carolina, UConn, Temple, Memphis, Washington State, Oregon State, Army (football only), Navy (football only)

American adds Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech, FIU, Liberty

MAC adds Delaware

C-USA adds Stephen F. Austin, Eastern Kentucky, Tarleton State, Austin Peay, Central Arkansas; UTEP and NMSU convert to football only and move other sports to the WAC

My gut tells me that FSU goes to the Big Ten, but I’m not sure who they pair with. To be honest though, I think it’s pretty difficult to specifically parse which schools go to which P2. I do feel pretty confident though that both the SEC and BTN will go to 20 and stop there. I see them eventually functioning like an AFC and NFC. The ACC schools I’m certain will be included in this are FSU, Clemson, and North Carolina. That leaves 3 spots for Miami, NC State, Duke, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. I think GT and Louisville are on the outside looking in, although I do think GT has a chance with the BTN depending on who the SEC scoops up.

Now what I wish would happen with the remaining ACC schools is for the ACC and the BTV to partner together in a way to mirror the P2 structure and create two somewhat geographically sensible conferences. This could easily be done by the BTV moving WV, UCF, and Cincinnati to the ACC and the ACC moving Cal and Stanford, and possibly SMU (if wanted) to the BTV. Both leagues could then round out to 20 schools each by adding from Wash State, Oregon State, Boise State, San Diego State, UNLV, Memphis, Tulane, South Florida, Temple, Navy, Army, UCONN, etc.

Realistically though, I doubt that kind of partnership actually happens and instead I think the remainder of the ACC stays together but shifts to focus entirely on basketball and Olympic sports by targeting UCONN, Temple, Memphis, Tulane, South Florida, and possibly Rice.

(03-28-2024 09:59 PM)3BNole Wrote:  My gut tells me that FSU goes to the Big Ten, but I’m not sure who they pair with. To be honest though, I think it’s pretty difficult to specifically parse which schools go to which P2. I do feel pretty confident though that both the SEC and BTN will go to 20 and stop there. I see them eventually functioning like an AFC and NFC. The ACC schools I’m certain will be included in this are FSU, Clemson, and North Carolina. That leaves 3 spots for Miami, NC State, Duke, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. I think GT and Louisville are on the outside looking in, although I do think GT has a chance with the BTN depending on who the SEC scoops up.

Now what I wish would happen with the remaining ACC schools is for the ACC and the BTV to partner together in a way to mirror the P2 structure and create two somewhat geographically sensible conferences. This could easily be done by the BTV moving WV, UCF, and Cincinnati to the ACC and the ACC moving Cal and Stanford, and possibly SMU (if wanted) to the BTV. Both leagues could then round out to 20 schools each by adding from Wash State, Oregon State, Boise State, San Diego State, UNLV, Memphis, Tulane, South Florida, Temple, Navy, Army, UCONN, etc.

Realistically though, I doubt that kind of partnership actually happens and instead I think the remainder of the ACC stays together but shifts to focus entirely on basketball and Olympic sports by targeting UCONN, Temple, Memphis, Tulane, South Florida, and possibly Rice.

You can't ignore results on the field and the playoff.

There won't be a P2 because there are more than 40 teams worthy of playing for a national championship. I think we end up with a P3 but there's no way we scale down the playoff.

(03-28-2024 09:00 PM)ETSUfan#2 Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 07:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 07:01 PM)b2b Wrote:  Why do they need to go anywhere? They can add whoever they want from Tulane, Memphis, USF, etc. they might even be able to pull from the eastern flank of the Big 12.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Concur but would add they could expand with Oregon State or Utah (no GOR) and the ACC would have a Western division of 4 in a 16 full member conference with Notre Dame as a partial.

Three are coming in. If Clemson, FSU, and UNC leave (likely to the SEC in settlement where ESPN is willing to do this to keep the full rights of all, adding UConn in the East replaces the UNC hoops value and adding Utah or Oregon State adds more market and allows for a cost cutting in travel for the West Coast teams all appease the Irish.

It's the smartest move ESPN could make. They lose nothing, pick up an additional late-night option, and gain UConn.

Then the only question is who is #4 for the SEC? If it is Duke or Virginia enter USF. If it is Kansas, no further additions are needed, and ESPN scratches another itch.

In that world if the Big 10 has to go to 20 without Notre Dame. They need a 5th out West for a division. I think they go after Arizona State as the lone PAC school with a decent valuation. It also adds market. Then I think they go after Colorado to connect it all and place them in the Plains division with Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

If the elite of the ACC bail between the SEC, Big Ten, and Big XII, would Cal and Stanford want to shell out stupid amounts of money, especially for all the non revenue or low revenue sports, to travel cross country for the likes of Memphis and Tulane?

If the ACC that is left after several top tier teams leave is a borderline G5 conference with the ACC logo slapped on, Cal and Stanford might find it better to try and get into the Big XII to at least cut down on likely obsurd travel expenses, or possibly see what happens with Oregon State and Washington State and see if those 2 teams can rebuild the PAC, or use PAC 2 resources to boost the Mountain West.

Both bay area teams have legitimate worries right now about the possibility of having to cut some of their non revenue sports depending on how travel expenses go the next year or so, if OSU and WSU manage go a couple seasons with their Mountain West and WCC interim agreements and not burst into flames by associating with G5 conferences, Cal and Stanford might quietly keep an eye on how the Pac 2/MW deal ultimately shakes out or not.

If you want to try to assess the situation with Cal and Stanford, the first step is trying to figure out what their various motivations are.

Why did they join the ACC in the first place? They could have gone to the Big12 had they wanted.

And also, I think it's worth paying attention to the fact that Notre Dame lobbied for their admission.

The relationship between Stanford and Notre Dame goes back decades.

And if we look at the rest of the ACC, even if FSU, Clemson and a couple others leave, what's left are mostly former BigEast members, and GT who was in the Metro with several of those schools, and was in the SEC before that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_C...p_timeline



So, if FSU, Clemson, NC, and NC State leave, then of the original ACC split from SoCon, we'd basically be looking at Duke and Wake Forest left. So I can see where those who might be under-valuing the former BigEast schools, might be sounding an alarm.

But for the rest of the conference, I think they're just fine being in a conference together.

And one more thing - ND's deal with the ACC essentially gets them a 20% share of the media deal for non-football.

That presumably means that a school who adds only football has the potential to get 80% of the media deal.

So Cal-Berkeley could resolve their travel problems by working out a deal with the ACC to join only for football, and join the BigWest with the rest of their sports. That would be a win-win for them.

(And yes, we're seeing something similar right now with the PAC2 splitting their foot ball and non-football sports into separate conferences - the WCC and the MWC, in their situation. So this isn't without recent precedent.)

I don't know whether Stanford would be interested in that though, due to their long history with Notre Dame. Plus, they likely have a better chance at a Big10 invite in the (distant) future, should things come to that.

Both the ACC and the BigWest have a lot of AAU members. So there's that as well.

So no, the ACC is unlikely to be going anywhere. They have better media deals than the Big12, and a past history together - and, to be honest - they have Notre Dame.

This isn't the mismanagement of current media negotiations like the PAC. This is merely losing a few members and backfilling. We've seen conferences do that time and again, this will likely be no different.

When I started posting here 20 years ago Louisville was in CUSA. If anyone had told me Louisville would be in The ACC back then. I would have thought they were crazy.

When Maryland left for The Big Ten, it was a foregone conclusion that UConn was going to be invited to The ACC. It was only a matter of when the invite came. Jon Wilner tweeted that UConn would be invited and even said the day.

The point is no one knows who is going where. The conferences all have different wants and needs. I’ve been saying it for years. Some people are going to be surprised when this goes down and it’s going to happen. All that lawyering is to determine when.

Be careful what you wish for, you might not like what you get.

(03-29-2024 09:26 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 09:00 PM)ETSUfan#2 Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 07:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 07:01 PM)b2b Wrote:  Why do they need to go anywhere? They can add whoever they want from Tulane, Memphis, USF, etc. they might even be able to pull from the eastern flank of the Big 12.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Concur but would add they could expand with Oregon State or Utah (no GOR) and the ACC would have a Western division of 4 in a 16 full member conference with Notre Dame as a partial.

Three are coming in. If Clemson, FSU, and UNC leave (likely to the SEC in settlement where ESPN is willing to do this to keep the full rights of all, adding UConn in the East replaces the UNC hoops value and adding Utah or Oregon State adds more market and allows for a cost cutting in travel for the West Coast teams all appease the Irish.

It's the smartest move ESPN could make. They lose nothing, pick up an additional late-night option, and gain UConn.

Then the only question is who is #4 for the SEC? If it is Duke or Virginia enter USF. If it is Kansas, no further additions are needed, and ESPN scratches another itch.

In that world if the Big 10 has to go to 20 without Notre Dame. They need a 5th out West for a division. I think they go after Arizona State as the lone PAC school with a decent valuation. It also adds market. Then I think they go after Colorado to connect it all and place them in the Plains division with Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

If the elite of the ACC bail between the SEC, Big Ten, and Big XII, would Cal and Stanford want to shell out stupid amounts of money, especially for all the non revenue or low revenue sports, to travel cross country for the likes of Memphis and Tulane?

If the ACC that is left after several top tier teams leave is a borderline G5 conference with the ACC logo slapped on, Cal and Stanford might find it better to try and get into the Big XII to at least cut down on likely obsurd travel expenses, or possibly see what happens with Oregon State and Washington State and see if those 2 teams can rebuild the PAC, or use PAC 2 resources to boost the Mountain West.

Both bay area teams have legitimate worries right now about the possibility of having to cut some of their non revenue sports depending on how travel expenses go the next year or so, if OSU and WSU manage go a couple seasons with their Mountain West and WCC interim agreements and not burst into flames by associating with G5 conferences, Cal and Stanford might quietly keep an eye on how the Pac 2/MW deal ultimately shakes out or not.

If you want to try to assess the situation with Cal and Stanford, the first step is trying to figure out what their various motivations are.

Why did they join the ACC in the first place? They could have gone to the Big12 had they wanted.

And also, I think it's worth paying attention to the fact that Notre Dame lobbied for their admission.

The relationship between Stanford and Notre Dame goes back decades.

And if we look at the rest of the ACC, even if FSU, Clemson and a couple others leave, what's left are mostly former BigEast members, and GT who was in the Metro with several of those schools, and was in the SEC before that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_C...p_timeline



So, if FSU, Clemson, NC, and NC State leave, then of the original ACC split from SoCon, we'd basically be looking at Duke and Wake Forest left. So I can see where those who might be under-valuing the former BigEast schools, might be sounding an alarm.

But for the rest of the conference, I think they're just fine being in a conference together.

And one more thing - ND's deal with the ACC essentially gets them a 20% share of the media deal for non-football.

That presumably means that a school who adds only football has the potential to get 80% of the media deal.

So Cal-Berkeley could resolve their travel problems by working out a deal with the ACC to join only for football, and join the BigWest with the rest of their sports. That would be a win-win for them.

(And yes, we're seeing something similar right now with the PAC2 splitting their foot ball and non-football sports into separate conferences - the WCC and the MWC, in their situation. So this isn't without recent precedent.)

I don't know whether Stanford would be interested in that though, due to their long history with Notre Dame. Plus, they likely have a better chance at a Big10 invite in the (distant) future, should things come to that.

Both the ACC and the BigWest have a lot of AAU members. So there's that as well.

So no, the ACC is unlikely to be going anywhere. They have better media deals than the Big12, and a past history together - and, to be honest - they have Notre Dame.

This isn't the mismanagement of current media negotiations like the PAC. This is merely losing a few members and backfilling. We've seen conferences do that time and again, this will likely be no different.

Well done! I would only add that they are also getting rid of the problem children. Where I differ is only see 3 leaving for now and am not sure of the 4th. It could be Virginia, Duke, N.C. State, or Kansas. South Florida waits in the wings if there is a 4th.

Some might ask why these were problem children:
FSU has not been happy for some time and has raised quite the stink.
Clemson is not a bad child per se but they want out too.
North Carolina represents old Tobacco Road culture which has been hard for the former Big East schools to penetrate and hard for independent schools which were added to do the same. Whether UNC leaves with Virginia or Duke or without another ACC school their departure signals new management and that will be needed to make the unit whole.

(03-29-2024 09:32 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 09:26 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 09:00 PM)ETSUfan#2 Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 07:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 07:01 PM)b2b Wrote:  Why do they need to go anywhere? They can add whoever they want from Tulane, Memphis, USF, etc. they might even be able to pull from the eastern flank of the Big 12.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Concur but would add they could expand with Oregon State or Utah (no GOR) and the ACC would have a Western division of 4 in a 16 full member conference with Notre Dame as a partial.

Three are coming in. If Clemson, FSU, and UNC leave (likely to the SEC in settlement where ESPN is willing to do this to keep the full rights of all, adding UConn in the East replaces the UNC hoops value and adding Utah or Oregon State adds more market and allows for a cost cutting in travel for the West Coast teams all appease the Irish.

It's the smartest move ESPN could make. They lose nothing, pick up an additional late-night option, and gain UConn.

Then the only question is who is #4 for the SEC? If it is Duke or Virginia enter USF. If it is Kansas, no further additions are needed, and ESPN scratches another itch.

In that world if the Big 10 has to go to 20 without Notre Dame. They need a 5th out West for a division. I think they go after Arizona State as the lone PAC school with a decent valuation. It also adds market. Then I think they go after Colorado to connect it all and place them in the Plains division with Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

If the elite of the ACC bail between the SEC, Big Ten, and Big XII, would Cal and Stanford want to shell out stupid amounts of money, especially for all the non revenue or low revenue sports, to travel cross country for the likes of Memphis and Tulane?

If the ACC that is left after several top tier teams leave is a borderline G5 conference with the ACC logo slapped on, Cal and Stanford might find it better to try and get into the Big XII to at least cut down on likely obsurd travel expenses, or possibly see what happens with Oregon State and Washington State and see if those 2 teams can rebuild the PAC, or use PAC 2 resources to boost the Mountain West.

Both bay area teams have legitimate worries right now about the possibility of having to cut some of their non revenue sports depending on how travel expenses go the next year or so, if OSU and WSU manage go a couple seasons with their Mountain West and WCC interim agreements and not burst into flames by associating with G5 conferences, Cal and Stanford might quietly keep an eye on how the Pac 2/MW deal ultimately shakes out or not.

If you want to try to assess the situation with Cal and Stanford, the first step is trying to figure out what their various motivations are.

Why did they join the ACC in the first place? They could have gone to the Big12 had they wanted.

And also, I think it's worth paying attention to the fact that Notre Dame lobbied for their admission.

The relationship between Stanford and Notre Dame goes back decades.

And if we look at the rest of the ACC, even if FSU, Clemson and a couple others leave, what's left are mostly former BigEast members, and GT who was in the Metro with several of those schools, and was in the SEC before that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_C...p_timeline



So, if FSU, Clemson, NC, and NC State leave, then of the original ACC split from SoCon, we'd basically be looking at Duke and Wake Forest left. So I can see where those who might be under-valuing the former BigEast schools, might be sounding an alarm.

But for the rest of the conference, I think they're just fine being in a conference together.

And one more thing - ND's deal with the ACC essentially gets them a 20% share of the media deal for non-football.

That presumably means that a school who adds only football has the potential to get 80% of the media deal.

So Cal-Berkeley could resolve their travel problems by working out a deal with the ACC to join only for football, and join the BigWest with the rest of their sports. That would be a win-win for them.

(And yes, we're seeing something similar right now with the PAC2 splitting their foot ball and non-football sports into separate conferences - the WCC and the MWC, in their situation. So this isn't without recent precedent.)

I don't know whether Stanford would be interested in that though, due to their long history with Notre Dame. Plus, they likely have a better chance at a Big10 invite in the (distant) future, should things come to that.

Both the ACC and the BigWest have a lot of AAU members. So there's that as well.

So no, the ACC is unlikely to be going anywhere. They have better media deals than the Big12, and a past history together - and, to be honest - they have Notre Dame.

This isn't the mismanagement of current media negotiations like the PAC. This is merely losing a few members and backfilling. We've seen conferences do that time and again, this will likely be no different.

Well done! I would only add that they are also getting rid of the problem children. Where I differ is only see 3 leaving for now and am not sure of the 4th. It could be Virginia, Duke, N.C. State, or Kansas. South Florida waits in the wings if there is a 4th.

Thanks : )

I agree that at least FSU and Clemson are pretty clearly out of the ACC.

The more I look at the NC to SEC situation, the more I wonder if the marriage with NC State is actually a pretty smart thing. NC is a solid basketball school, but isn't the strongest in football, but NC State apparently ranks right behind FSU, Clemson, and Miami. So the synergy of the two may well be stronger than just taking NC alone.

Yes, that's 2 "slots", but they both bring a lot of what I think you've been saying for awhile now would be beneficial to the SEC - academic strength, basketball strength, new state/market/region, elite brand, institutional fit, etc.

This without even talking about the internal politics in North Carolina. And even in that case, I think that this is pretty clearly nowhere near the same as the situation of OK and OK State.

My other thought is wondering if the SEC only added NC, is 19 going to be a mess for scheduling?

Anyway, I don't know how NC (+1) will handle the timing of their departure, but I think if FSU and Clemson open the door, that they will be out eventually.

(03-28-2024 07:35 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 06:38 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  I personally don't see why the SEC or Big 10 would want to go past 20 because teams hardly even will play each other at that point. And no one is going to agree to a 10-game conference schedule.

The P3
Big 10 - Clemson, Miami
SEC- FSU, Virginia, UNC
Big 12 - Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, NC State, Louisville.


NACC - Syracuse, Duke, Wake, VT, BC, SMU, Cal, Stanford, Uconn, Memphis.

I think they stand pat at 10 football teams and focus on basketball because there are some potentially good options developing right now. Delaware, Tulane, USF, UNCC, UAB.

I see the SEC getting Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia, the BIG getting Kansas and Miami (FL), and the Big XII getting Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech.

The Big doesn't want Kansas. This is a Football based move.
FSU/Clemson to Big they need the 2 biggest FB brands available.
NC, Va, To the SEC, have no idea who else they would want. I could see them holding at 18. but for argument sake NC state Va tech.

Big 12 gets UM, Pitt, UL, Ga tech.

ACC leftover 7 add USF, Tulane, Or state, Wa state, SD state, Memphis, plus one To become the M1.