FSU's ACC GOR Cramdown?
No news here, only theory. If you don't want theory, quit reading now. Otherwise, here we go -
We all know the ACC exit fee buyout is an important issue for FSU and CU (and other potential ACC defectors), but we also know it is the ACC GOR that is the overriding blockage for ACC schools interested in leaving the ACC (to make P2 money in the SEC or the B1G).
The problem with the GOR is not away games, right? When I studied the B12 GOR years ago, away games, as I recall, were irrelevant to the B12 GOR. The B12 GOR simply didn't apply to away games, only to home games. At least according to rumor (since the ACC GOR is reportedly a closely guarded document, kept under Tobacco Road lock and key), I have heard that the ACC GOR is based in whole or in part on the B12 GOR. Have you heard that, too?
The potentially ostensible ironclad impregnability of any GOR is based on the self-evident fact that no school can afford to lose its home games, right? That yearly conference GOR TV money is critically important to every school (not to mention that gameday home game proceeds for tickets, concessions, and trinkets are lucrative, too). Dang sure not chump change we're talking about.
Let's follow the logic: Say, FSU (or whichever ACC school) declares "we're out of the ACC". Obviously, once declared "we're out", the ACC exit fee applies. No quibble here. And the ACC exit fee isn't exactly the cost of a NY Strip, but, still, the bigger problem remains the ACC GOR. Even if FSU can afford the exit fee, what to do about the nettlesome, oppressive ACC GOR?
Continuing, assume FSU is in the SEC or B1G. FSU plays its schedule of SEC or B1G away games at the opponent's venue, as per usual (since there's no problem with away games if the ACC GOR is irrelevant to away games). This leaves only FSU's home games subject to the ACC GOR, right?
Thus is sprung FSU's ACC GOR trap: For FSU's "home games", there are none. Zero home games. Yeah, exactly: Zero home games, zero GOR applicability, zero TV money for the ACC viz-a-viz FSU's [considerable] contribution to the ACC GOR. How is that going to work, exactly?
Well, here's once idea: For FSU's customary "home" games, FSU plays all of its home games at a neutral venue. FSU then calls its "home" games "away" games, which is legitimate since the games are not played at Doak Walker Stadium - or even in Tallahassee. Looks like an away game to me. Voilà: No home games, no GOR applicability, and, it's worth repeating, no money for the ACC attributable to FSU's portion of the ACC GOR payout. Take it up with ESPN, ACC.
More specifically, assume FSU gave correct ACC exit notice, etc., leaving FSU available to apply formally for league membership in either the SEC or the B1G. For purposes of easier communication, let's assume arguendo that FSU joins the SEC.
FSU simply plays its allotment of home games at, say, UF's Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville on weekends that UF is playing away games. Yeah, this workaround is a hassle for the SEC, UF, and FSU (although merchants in the City of Gainesville would love it), but the relevant question here is, "would it work?". Best I can tell, "why not?".
If so, Gainesville travel is probably manageable for a huge percentage of FSU fandom, I'm thinking. Yes, it's a pain for FSU and FSU fandom (and for UF and the SEC), but FSU's ACC exit is accomplished - and, apparently, only with the exit fee. Furthermore, FSU's lawyers would presumably have previously negotiated down the ACC exit fee during the course of the pending lawsuits.
We know the SEC can add FSU at full SEC share under the SEC's existing ESPN contract. [Can the B1G add more schools without FOX permission?] I'm not sure exactly how an "SEC to FSU TV payout" would work if FSU was playing its home schedule at Gainesville. At worst, I'm thinking, the SEC and FSU would have to negotiate an additional "$X" for "Y attendance" for FSU TV games in Gainesville prior to SEC membership, if necessary, so that FSU gets its full SEC TV share (or as close to it as possible). IOW, FSU immediately gets SEC-level TV money less costs to rent UF stadium. Think of the recruiting advantage UF would gain over FSU during the applicable years. Why would UF complain? Furthermore, FSU gets that SEC $$$ so they can pay off AD debt and/or invest in their football/athletics infrastructure. Win-win for FSU/UF?
As suggested, FSU cuts a deal with UF for stadium rental, relevant concessions, and deals with t-shirt selling folks, etc. Maybe FSU lures the City of Gainesville into various financial incentives, given the value of FSU games to the Gainesville economy, who knows? At any rate, FSU also negotiates an early termination clause with the SEC and relevant associated entities when a full FSU-ACC settlement occurs - and it will occur - which then permits FSU to return to Tallahassee.
So, what does the ACC do about it? Well, first, they scream, naturally. Loudly. The ACC amends its pleadings in the various lawsuits employing VERY STRONG LANGUAGE, like "!!! FRAUD !!!", lol. Whatever. Games in Gainesville don't look like home games to me. Since when is Gainesville Tallahassee? Factually, depending on language in the ACC GOR and/or Bylaws, I think FSU might [would?] be in a strong position to bust the GOR. If so, considerable pressure would suddenly be brought to bear on the ACC.
The ACC would almost certainly sue the SEC (or the B1G, as applicable), on some legal theory (tortious interference with contract?), but, goodness, with FSU exiting the ACC, then negotiating with the SEC (or B1G), I'm thinking that kind of ACC interpleader is some pretty weak tea. The answer here is the SEC simply includes an indemnification clause when FSU is added. Query: Do the SEC and B1G have guts or not? Is FSU worth it or not? The answer is "yes" (but this is not the post to prove it).
Also, I get it: FSU doesn't want to play its home games in, say, Gainesville (or whereever), until the year 2036, of course not. And it would take courage for FSU to quit the ACC without a deal in place with the SEC (or B1G). Query: How bad does FSU want out? Does FSU have guts or not? Is the SEC or B1G worth it or not? The answer is "yes" (and the financial difference is notorious for anyone reading this post).
If FSU declares out of the ACC and if the "neutral site away games" theory is correct, then the ACC is staring at the specter of a near valueless GOR viz-a-viz FSU. FSU is in position to do a cramdown from hell on the ACC to settle the pending lawsuits. Sooner or later - and probably sooner - the ACC takes something instead of nothing, right?
Ditto all this for CU, at, say, Williams-Brice Stadium at USCe.
Once FSU and CU exit the ACC - and their respective lawsuits demonstrate their respective determination - I think it will be fairly straight-forward for any other ACC school to exit as well - if they have runway in the P2. Happily, and assuming ND means it, as long as ND stays independent, ND will probably keep the ACC afloat, with the ACC backfilling, if necessary, with schools that are well-discussed among posters on this site.
Given a reasonable theory to escape the clutches of the ACC GOR, I think it helps ACC schools escape the ACC if the ACC enterprise is not destroyed, given ND's public commitment to independence and current ACC association. Also, right now today, I think there's only, at most, up to four schools, in aggregate, that the SEC and/or B1G would like to add to their leagues. The point is that if the "neutral site / home game" theory seems legitimate, even if it may not be perfect, even if it might be wrong, it may be just enough of a theory from which FSU-CU could use to extricate their schools from the ACC, if the ACC feels like it would survive and not become "PAC, revisited".
So, what about the "neutral site away games" theory? I argue that the GOR does not apply to neutral site away games, but does it? Am I wrong? Because if I'm wrong, this whole theory is crap and may this thread die a swift death. Let's criticize it.
Maybe "away game" is defined in the ACC GOR or Bylaws or somewhere, to be "at an opponent's venue", thus seemingly weakening, possibly destroying, my argument, idk. I don't recall reading a definition of "home game", "away game", or "neutral site game" in the B12 GOR or B12 Bylaws back in the day even though Texas and Oklahoma played at a neutral site - Dallas - and I *think* I looked hard at the definitions at the time. Definitions are important to lawyers. Those definitions weren't critical to me, though, since I deemed Dallas to be irrelevant because both Texas and Oklahoma were members of the B12. The SEC has a neutral site game in Jacksonville, right? Anybody got a copy of the SEC GOR and/or Bylaws for purposes of information? We can't see the ACC GOR (for some weird reason) and I haven't seen the ACC Bylaws. Bottom line: If the "no home games" theory is viable, then, ACC, "take it or leave it", FSU cramdown looming?
If the "no home games / no GOR application" theory is viable - if it is - it seems to me FSU's lawyers need to get an enforceable partial settlement agreement for a manageable exit fee out of the lawsuit now, then, later, unleash the "no home games" gambit on the ACC. Negotiate down that exit fee, get the deal enforceable, if possible, then tread water until closer to August 15th (or whatever the exact August date is) when FSU gives formal ACC exit notice.
Checkmate?
Well, even if viable, probably more like "check" than "checkmate". There is still the matter of the rather impressive - [cough!, cough!] - ACC exit fee to pay. It's easy for me to spend FSU's money, lol. The logistics of playing at another school's venue are considerable, too, although not insurmountable. Also, I could see the SEC and B1G demurring on FSU anyway, awaiting a full FSU-ACC settlement. Let's face it: Lawyers are a headache. And they aren't cheap. Seriously, who wants to buy into a lawsuit? I doubt the SEC or B1G do, especially if ESPN adds no additional money to the SEC's TV payout for adding key ACC school(s). ESPN didn't add anything when the SEC added Texas and Oklahoma. Plus, do the SEC or B1G want to play the role of "suspected villain"? These are "ivory tower" types, after all, and outward appearances are important to them. The demise of the PAC is instructive. Finally, this discussion insufficiently factors in our beloved ESPN overlord and ESPN's role in the ACC GOR thicket. So, even if viable, questions abound.
Long post (disjointed, and, in places, redundant, sorry). I hope it was worth the read to those who got this far, lol. Your turn. If you're of a mind, poke holes in the theory and expose its errors and weaknesses.
(This post was last modified: 03-31-2024 06:01 PM by XOVERX.)
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