The Sun Belt seems pretty solid, consisting of schools that seem to want to be together. That said, if the American Athletic were to offer briefcases full of cash from their (currently) more valuable television contract, who knows what would happen?

So, I wonder: If the Sun Belt needed one more school as a backfill, which school would that be?

The reason I ask is that the possibility of getting into the Sun Belt seems to factor into the long-term thinking of several Conference USA schools right now. The MAC appears open to adding Western Kentucky, but there are at least some Hilltopper fans who seem to think it would be better for Western Kentucky to sit tight and wait for something to open up in the Sun Belt or the American Athletic.

Such a strategy would only make sense if either conference is a realistic option, though. It doesn't seem clear (to me at least) that Western Kentucky would be near the top of a Sun Belt expansion list. Sun Belt fans had a thread going (here) on whether they should invite Western Kentucky, and most seemed down on such an addition. Additionally, MUHerd76, who seems to have good sources, had this to say:

(02-28-2024 09:10 PM)MUHERD76 Wrote:  There are currently only 3-4 teams that move the needle of interest for the Sun Belt. WKU is not one of them. Trust me on that one.

So, what would a Sun Belt expansion list look like? I wonder if these schools would be more likely to move the needle for the Sun Belt:

-- Florida International -- While the athletics department is not winning many championships, it's in a big market near a lot of high school football talent.
-- Middle Tennessee -- If having a school within an hour's drive to Nashville matters to you, this checks that box.
-- Liberty -- They are well funded and having some success on the football field at the moment.

But I haven't studied this carefully. What do others think?

(04-18-2024 10:41 AM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  The Sun Belt seems pretty solid, consisting of schools that seem to want to be together. That said, if the American Athletic were to offer briefcases full of cash from their (currently) more valuable television contract, who knows what would happen?

So, I wonder: If the Sun Belt needed one more school as a backfill, which school would that be?

The reason I ask is that the possibility of getting into the Sun Belt seems to factor into the long-term thinking of several Conference USA schools right now. The MAC appears open to adding Western Kentucky, but there are at least some Hilltopper fans who seem to think it would be better for Western Kentucky to sit tight and wait for something to open up in the Sun Belt or the American Athletic.

Such a strategy would only make sense if either conference is a realistic option, though. It doesn't seem clear (to me at least) that Western Kentucky would be near the top of a Sun Belt expansion list. Sun Belt fans had a thread going (here) on whether they should invite Western Kentucky, and most seemed down on such an addition. Additionally, MUHerd76, who seems to have good sources, had this to say:

(02-28-2024 09:10 PM)MUHERD76 Wrote:  There are currently only 3-4 teams that move the needle of interest for the Sun Belt. WKU is not one of them. Trust me on that one.

So, what would a Sun Belt expansion list look like? I wonder if these schools would be more likely to move the needle for the Sun Belt:

-- Florida International -- While the athletics department is not winning many championships, it's in a big market near a lot of high school football talent.
-- Middle Tennessee -- If having a school within an hour's drive to Nashville matters to you, this checks that box.
-- Liberty -- They are well funded and having some success on the football field at the comment.

But I haven't studied this carefully. What do others think?

If I was the Sun Belt, I would hang tight to see what happens to the AAC over the next 3-5 years. If the AAC falls apart then you could go get ECU or FAU or UAB.

(04-18-2024 10:41 AM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  The Sun Belt seems pretty solid, consisting of schools that seem to want to be together. That said, if the American Athletic were to offer briefcases full of cash from their (currently) more valuable television contract, who knows what would happen?

So, I wonder: If the Sun Belt needed one more school as a backfill, which school would that be?

The reason I ask is that the possibility of getting into the Sun Belt seems to factor into the long-term thinking of several Conference USA schools right now. The MAC appears open to adding Western Kentucky, but there are at least some Hilltopper fans who seem to think it would be better for Western Kentucky to sit tight and wait for something to open up in the Sun Belt or the American Athletic.

Such a strategy would only make sense if either conference is a realistic option, though. It doesn't seem clear (to me at least) that Western Kentucky would be near the top of a Sun Belt expansion list. Sun Belt fans had a thread going (here) on whether they should invite Western Kentucky, and most seemed down on such an addition. Additionally, MUHerd76, who seems to have good sources, had this to say:

(02-28-2024 09:10 PM)MUHERD76 Wrote:  There are currently only 3-4 teams that move the needle of interest for the Sun Belt. WKU is not one of them. Trust me on that one.

So, what would a Sun Belt expansion list look like? I wonder if these schools would be more likely to move the needle for the Sun Belt:

-- Florida International -- While the athletics department is not winning many championships, it's in a big market near a lot of high school football talent.
-- Middle Tennessee -- If having a school within an hour's drive to Nashville matters to you, this checks that box.
-- Liberty -- They are well funded and having some success on the football field at the comment.

But I haven't studied this carefully. What do others think?

ECU, but the AAC would have to implode for that to happen. We only add schools that increase our media payout. We won't add a school just to add one.

That thread proposed expanding to add WKU and the consensus was no. If we found ourselves in need of a backfill they would definitely be near the top of the list. It’d also depend on who we’re replacing La Tech would fit out west but don’t know about the politics. From who you listed, MT would be a viable addition but the other two hard no’s.

(04-18-2024 10:49 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  That thread proposed expanding to add WKU and the consensus was no. If we found ourselves in need of a backfill they would definitely be near the top of the list. It’d also depend on who we’re replacing La Tech would fit out west but don’t know about the politics. From who you listed, MT would be a viable addition but the other two hard no’s.

So, if the Sun Belt lost a member, Western Kentucky would be a logical potential backfill? Interesting. It may be that I was misreading that thread, and that MUHerd76 was speaking only of schools that would move the needle enough to go beyond 14.

The SBC might be interested in expansion for ECU, UAB, Memphis, or UTSA. The likelihood of those programs moving from the AAC right now are basically zero.

WKU is not an expansion candidate for the SBC. Not on their "wishlist". We are on their backfill list though. If they lose someone (say a Georgia State or Texas State to the AAC) then I think we would be one of their top options. That is assuming that the AAC able to poach from the SBC.

Arkansas Tech!!!!

It's obviously San Jose State.

I would think the Sun Belt would prefer East Carolina to any other G5 member but I'm not sure ECU would leave the AAC (unless the league is crumbling).

Western Kentucky would do well in the Belt. As a MTSU fan, I would hate for C-USA to lose the Topper program, however.

As a fan these are the schools I'd be interested in seeing:

The perfect situation happens and we're expanding beyond 14:
ECU
Memphis
UAB
UTSA


Lost a member and need to backfill West:
LaTech
MoSt


Lost a member and need to backfill East:
WKU
UDel
Toledo
Ohio

(04-18-2024 12:13 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  As a fan these are the schools I'd be interested in seeing:

The perfect situation happens and we're expanding beyond 14:
ECU
Memphis
UAB
UTSA


Lost a member and need to backfill West:
LaTech
MoSt


Lost a member and need to backfill East:
WKU
UDel
Toledo
Ohio

The perfect situation happens and we're expanding beyond 14:
ECU
Memphis - You don't want to be in a conference with Memphis
UAB
UTSA


Lost a member and need to backfill West:
LaTech
MoSt - they offer nothing


Lost a member and need to backfill East:
WKU
UDel
Toledo - really out of our footprint
Ohio

Boise St. The answer to this question for any Conference is always Boise St.

(04-18-2024 10:41 AM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  

(02-28-2024 09:10 PM)MUHERD76 Wrote:  There are currently only 3-4 teams that move the needle of interest for the Sun Belt. WKU is not one of them. Trust me on that one.

So, what would a Sun Belt expansion list look like? I wonder if these schools would be more likely to move the needle for the Sun Belt:

-- Florida International -- While the athletics department is not winning many championships, it's in a big market near a lot of high school football talent.
-- Middle Tennessee -- If having a school within an hour's drive to Nashville matters to you, this checks that box.
-- Liberty -- They are well funded and having some success on the football field at the moment.

But I haven't studied this carefully. What do others think?

I think you're aiming too low. In the context of past conversations over there, I'm pretty sure the "3-4 schools" comment has to do with AAC schools, not CUSA schools. Think ECU, UAB, Memphis, maybe UTSA.

The SBC likely sees WKU as the best candidate in CUSA (they were the first alternate for 2021 SBC expansion, per Brett McMurphy), but there's no real reason or need to go above 14, especially with the uncertain futures of the ACC and Pac-12.

There's a scenario where some western AAC schools go Pac-12, some eastern AAC schools go ACC, and the remaining ones are stuck (ECU, UNC-Charlotte, FAU, UAB, Temple, Tulsa, Wichita State, Army, Navy). That group of 9 schools would have an awful time trying to convince SBC members to come to the AAC, so much so that a couple of them might join the conference they're trying to poach from.

(04-18-2024 12:25 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Boise St. The answer to this question for any Conference is always Boise St.

Waiting for the Great Boise Auction among the conferences

While the Sun Belt doesn't need more members, I wonder what it might do if a school like FIU were to approach the league and indicate a willingness to accept a lesser share of media money from the TV deal for a period of time. Would that be enough to sway the Sun Belt to take the Panthers?

It seems many of us agree on two things:

1. The AAC, after losing one member, might actually have a tougher time luring one Sun Belt member than convincing two or more to join (not that successfully doing the latter would be easy).

2. If the AAC loses three or more members, the Sun Belt likely would be in a stronger position to poach the AAC than vice versa.

(04-18-2024 12:39 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(04-18-2024 12:25 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Boise St. The answer to this question for any Conference is always Boise St.

Waiting for the Great Boise Auction among the conferences

I'm not supposed to say anything, but I did overhear an interesting conversation the other day when I was visiting David St + to talk about my blog. Apparently, the B1G has offered Boise St the other half of both Washington's and Oregon's shares in perpetuity, but Boise St took that offer to the SEC and is giving us a chance to come up with something better. I expect the bidding war to become public any day now.

Missouri state or Delaware. Most others have bad blood or their eyes on the door.

(04-18-2024 12:22 PM)GreenBison Wrote:  Lost a member and need to backfill West:
LaTech
MoSt - they offer nothing

Not to speak against my own self-interest here, but baseball. Baseball is what Missouri State adds (take it from someone trying to prepare himself for a particular unappealing outcome).

Fortunately, baseball is also on the pro side of the ledger for Tech.

(04-18-2024 12:53 PM)inutech Wrote:  

(04-18-2024 12:22 PM)GreenBison Wrote:  Lost a member and need to backfill West:
LaTech
MoSt - they offer nothing

Not to speak against my own self-interest here, but baseball. Baseball is what Missouri State adds (take it from someone trying to prepare himself for a particular unappealing outcome).

Fortunately, baseball is also on the pro side of the ledger for Tech.

Both LaTech and MoSt have good baseball and decent basketball past. Lady Techsters especially. MoSt has a pretty big basketball budget.