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Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - msm96wolf - 11-12-2017 01:05 PM
:banghead:Just doing a quick pass. 45 teams possibly to fill last 19 spots. I put the remaing schedule. I think 21 if these teams have a very good chance getting to 6 wins. Still not a lot of room for error. Weuld not hurt to see at least one more bowl fold but I doubt that happens for next year. I do hope they keep the no new bowl rule for another six years. Only allow for new locations but no new bowls.
Feel free to correct any mistakes. :)
20 teams are within one game of being bowl eligible week 12.
22 teams are within two games of being bowl eligible week 12.
03 teams are within three games of being bowl eligible week 12.
59 teams are bowl eligible week 12 Now 70
ACC –
Needs one win
BC – UCONN, @SYR
GT – @Duke, UGA
Needs two wins
SYR - @Lville, BC
Pitt – @VT, Miami
Duke – GT, @Wake
Needs three wins
FSU – Delaware St, Florida, ULM
Big 12 – (TT or Texas will definitely go bowling)
Needs one win
KSU – @OSU, ISU
TTech – TCU, @Texas
Texas- @WVU, TTU
B!G –
Needs one win
Minn – @NW, WISC
Needs two wins
Rut - @Ind, MSU
MD – @MSU, PSU
IND – Rutgers, @Pur
Neb - @PSU, IOWA
Pur - @Iowa, IND
P12 – (UCLA or CAL & Utah or CO will get to 6 wins)
Needs one win
OU – AZ, Or St – (Likely)
CU – Utah
Utah – Wash, CO
ASU – Or St, AZ (Likely)
CAL – @Stan, @UCLA
UCLA - @USC, CAL
SEC –
Needs one win
Mo - @Vandy, @Ark
Needs two win
TN – LSU, VAN
VANDY – Mo, Tenn
Ark – Miss St, MO
G5 –
American –
Needs one win
Temple – UCF, Tulsa
Needs two wins
Tulane – HOU, @SMU
CUSA – (WKU or MTSU is going bowling)
Needs one win
WKU – MTSU, @FIU
UTSA - Marsh, @LT
MTSU – @WKU, ODU
Needs two wins
ODU – Rice, @MTSU
LT - @UTEP, UTSA
MAC –
Needs one win
Akron– Ohio, Kent
Needs two wins
Miami (OH) – EMU, @Ball
Buffalo - @Ball, OHO
MWC –
Needs one win
UTSU – HAW, @AFA
Needs Two Wins
AFA – BSU, USU
UNLV – UNM, NEV
SB –
Needs one win
Ark St –TXST, @ULM, Troy
Needs two wins
ULL – NMSU, GA So, @APP
ULM – @AUB, Ark St, @FSU
USA – @GA So, @NMSU
NMSU – @ULL, ID, USA
Needs three wins
ID – CCU, NMSU, GA State
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - otown - 11-12-2017 01:16 PM
At least Florida has something to play for this season. They can personally prevent FSU from going bowling LOL.
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - stever20 - 11-12-2017 01:18 PM
only 22 teams are within 2 wins.
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - stever20 - 11-12-2017 01:21 PM
and only 45 are still left possible.
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - msm96wolf - 11-12-2017 01:22 PM
(11-12-2017 01:18 PM)stever20 Wrote: only 22 teams are within 2 wins.
Thanks S20. I updated. Really hope this year is no APR. I am probably in the minority, but I think bowls have more meanings if some is left home. Unless you keep someone out, it is not a club.
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - chargeradio - 11-12-2017 01:36 PM
I’m a little concerned with the Big Ten, as Minnesota has a terrible draw for the last two games, and almost half the conference needs to wins. It may very well be that the conference has six teams with five wins.
Meanwhile, the Sun Belt could easily have six teams with five conference wins, and potentially eight bowl eligible teams.
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - stever20 - 11-12-2017 01:49 PM
yeah only Big Ten team that I think is likely in a bowl from that group is Indiana.
Pac 12 I think likely gets 4/6 teams from their group
ACC gets 2/6 from their group
Big 12 gets 1/3 from their group
SEC gets 1/4 from their group
AAC 1/2 from their group
CUSA 2/5 from their group
MAC 2/3 from their group
MWC 1/3 from their group
SBC 4/6 from their group
that would give us 19 on the button. But it shows just how close we're going to be.
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - ken d - 11-12-2017 03:00 PM
I only see 58 eligible.
ACC...7
PAC...5
B12...5
B1G...7
SEC...8
AAC...6
MWC..5
MAC..5
USA...6
SBC...2
IND...2
Who am I missing?
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - Tom in Lazybrook - 11-12-2017 03:20 PM
ACC - PROJECTION 9
Already bowl eligible (7) - Miami (FL), UVa, VT, Clemson, NCSU, Louisville, Wake
GT - Needs 1 from (@Duke, vs Georgia).
Duke - Needs 2 from (GT, @ Wake). Basically GT at Duke is an elimination game.
Pitt - Needs to beat @VT and Miami (FL). Not going to happen.
BC - Needs 1 from (@ UConn, @Syracuse). They'll probably make it.
Florida State - Needs 3 from (Del State, @Florida, and ULM). 50-50 at best here
Syracuse - Needs 2 from (@Louisville and BC). About a 30 percent chance here.
I think GT and BC make it and everyone else falls short. 9 total bowl eligible teams
___________
AAC - PROJECTION 6
Already eligible (5) Houston, Memphis, SMU, Navy, UCF, USF
Temple needs 1 from (UCF, @Tulsa). I think they get there.
Tulane needs 2 from(Houston and @SMU). I think they fall short.
So, the AAC gets 6 bowl eligible teams
________________
Big XII - PROJECTION - 6
Already eligible (5)- OU, TCU, OSU, WVU, ISU
Texas needs 1 from (@WVU, TTU). I think they get there
Tech needs 1 from (TCU, @UT). I think they fall short
KSU needs 1 from (@OSU, ISU) 50-50, I'll put them on the outside because they haven't beaten anyone of their remaining two teams' caliber all year
Projection - 6 teams
__________
Big Ten - Projection 8 teams
Already eligible -(7) Wisconsin, NW, Iowa, Ohio St, Mich St, Penn St, Mich
Minnesota - needs 1 from @NW, @Wisconsin. I think they fall short
Nebraska - needs 2 from (@Penn State, Iowa). Not happening
Purdue - needs 2 from @Iowa, Indiana. Unlikely, the PU/IU game is an elimination game
Indiana - needs 2 from (Rutgers, @Purdue). Both their remaining games are elimination games
Rutgers - needs 2 from (@Indiana, @ Mich State). I don't see them getting there
Maryland - needs 2 from (@Mich State, and Penn State. I don't see that happening.
Its possible that none of these teams qualify. But with so many paths, I'll guess that one makes it (I'm thinking Indiana or Purdue)
________
CUSA - Projection 8
Already eligible (5) - UNT, UAB, USM, FAU, FIU, Marshall
UTSA - Needs 1 from (Marshall, @LaTech).
WKU - Needs 1 from (MTSU, @FIU).
MTSU - Needs 1 from (@WKU, ODU)
LaTech - Needs 2 from (@UTEP, UTSA)
ODU - Needs 2 from (Rice, @MTSU)
Boy this is an interesting situation. Basically, if Marshall wins at UTSA, then only 1 from UTSA/LaTech bowls. WKU probably needs to beat MTSU to bowl, and if they do then ODU vs MTSU becomes an elimination game. I think La Tech, MTSU, and WKU make it. While its possible all 5 bowl, its unlikely.
______
Independents - Projection 2
Already eligible (2) - ND, Army
______
MAC - Projection 7
Already eligible (5) - Toledo, No. Ill, CMU, WMU, Ohio
Akron - Needs 1 from (Ohio, Kent). They'll get there
Miami (OH) - Needs 2 from (EMU, @Ball St.). They should make it
Buffalo - Needs 2 from (@Ball St, Ohio). Not likely
______
MWC - Projection 6
Already eligible(4) - Boise, Wyo, CSU, Fresno, SDSU
Utah State - Needs 1 from (Hawai'i, @AFA). I think they get there
AFA - Needs 2 from (@Boise, USU). Unlikely
UNLV - Needs 2 from (@NM, @Nevada). 50-50. I'm going to put them in.
______
Pac 12 - Projection 9
Already eligible - (5) -USC, Arizona, Wash St, Stanford, Wash State,
Arizona State - Needs 1 from (@Ore St, Arizona). They'll get there
UCLA - Needs 1 from (@USC, Cal)
Utah - Needs 1 from (@Wash, Colorado)
Colorado - Needs 1 from (@Utah)
Oregon - Needs 1 from (Arizona, Ore State). They'll get there
Cal - Needs 1 from (@Stanford, @UCLA).
This is another mess. Assuming favorites win rivalry games and Utah loses to Washington, then Oregon, Arizona State, the winner of Cal/UCLA, and the winner of Colorado/Utah bowl.
____
SEC - Projection 9
Already eligible - (8) Ala. Auburn, LSU, MSU, TAMU, Ga, USC, Ky.
Ole Miss - Needs 1 from (@Miss St, @LSU).
Missouri - Needs 1 from (@Vandy, @Ark)
Ark - Needs 2 from (Miss State, Missouri)
Vandy - Needs 2 from (Missouri, @ UTenn)
Tenn - Needs 2 from (@LSU, Vandy)
Basically if Mississippi State and LSU win out, and Missouri wins at Vandy, then only Missouri would go. I think that happens.
______
Sun Belt - Projection 6
Already eligible (3) - Troy, App, Georgia State
Ark State - Needs 1 from (Texas St, @ULM, Troy). They're bowling
ULL - Needs 2 from (NMSU, Ga Southern, @App). I think they make it
ULM - Needs 2 from (@Auburn, Ark State, @Florida State). Unlikely
USA - Needs 2 from (@Ga Southern, @NMSU).
NMSU - Needs 2 from (@ULL, Idaho, USA)
Idaho - Needs 2 from (Coastal, @NMSU, @Ga State)
Ok. I'll take ULL and Ark State, plus one more because its the Belt and nothing makes sense there.
So, there you have it as of today as far as I see it.
_____
I think that gets us to 76 bowl eligible teams. By the way, some bowl eligible teams could be staying at home if upsets happen
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - msm96wolf - 11-12-2017 08:15 PM
(11-12-2017 01:49 PM)stever20 Wrote: yeah only Big Ten team that I think is likely in a bowl from that group is Indiana.
Pac 12 I think likely gets 4/6 teams from their group
ACC gets 2/6 from their group
Big 12 gets 1/3 from their group
SEC gets 1/4 from their group
AAC 1/2 from their group
CUSA 2/5 from their group
MAC 2/3 from their group
MWC 1/3 from their group
SBC 4/6 from their group
that would give us 19 on the button. But it shows just how close we're going to be.
My picks have ACC 3/6 with BC, GT and FSU and MWC 2/3 with UNLV and Utah St for my call to get to 21.
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - stever20 - 11-12-2017 08:19 PM
I think GT loses to Duke.
And I don't think UNLV gets it either.
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - msm96wolf - 11-12-2017 08:20 PM
(11-12-2017 03:00 PM)ken d Wrote: I only see 58 eligible.
ACC...7
PAC...5
B12...5
B1G...7
SEC...8
AAC...6
MWC..5
MAC..5
USA...6
SBC...2
IND...2
Who am I missing?
Bowl-eligible teams
American (6): Houston, Memphis, Navy, SMU, South Florida, UCF
ACC (7): Clemson, Louisville, Miami, NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big Ten (7): Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin
Big 12 (5): Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, West Virginia
C-USA (6): FIU, Florida Atlantic, Marshall, North Texas, Southern Miss, UAB
Independent (2): Army, Notre Dame
MAC (5): Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan
Mountain West (5): Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Wyoming
Pac-12 (5): Arizona, Stanford, USC, Washington, Washington State
SEC (8): Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas A&M
Sun Belt (3): Appalachian State, Georgia State, Troy
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - msm96wolf - 11-12-2017 08:25 PM
(11-12-2017 08:19 PM)stever20 Wrote: I think GT loses to Duke.
And I don't think UNLV gets it either.
Have you seen Duke even play since they started 4-0? GT should run all over them. Duke has given up on the season. UNLV should be favored in both their games though I see Nevada as a rival game.
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - chargeradio - 11-12-2017 08:48 PM
I think both Vanderbilt and Missouri get in from the SEC, with Missouri beating Arkansas to clinch a spot at the last possible opportunity. Remember that Ole Miss is on a postseason ban.
Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - Jjoey52 - 11-12-2017 10:41 PM
USU needs only 1 win, they are 5-5, should get it this week against Hawaii at home.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - templefootballfan - 11-13-2017 02:11 AM
POWER CONF 9 game conf sch are costing them
bowl games, winning records, atten, donations, tv ratings
would love to see B-5 schools get 42 eligable
that gets 6 extra bids for smaller schools
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - ken d - 11-13-2017 08:51 AM
(11-12-2017 08:20 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:(11-12-2017 03:00 PM)ken d Wrote: I only see 58 eligible.
ACC...7
PAC...5
B12...5
B1G...7
SEC...8
AAC...6
MWC..5
MAC..5
USA...6
SBC...2
IND...2
Who am I missing?
Bowl-eligible teams
American (6): Houston, Memphis, Navy, SMU, South Florida, UCF
ACC (7): Clemson, Louisville, Miami, NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big Ten (7): Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin
Big 12 (5): Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, West Virginia
C-USA (6): FIU, Florida Atlantic, Marshall, North Texas, Southern Miss, UAB
Independent (2): Army, Notre Dame
MAC (5): Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan
Mountain West (5): Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Wyoming
Pac-12 (5): Arizona, Stanford, USC, Washington, Washington State
SEC (8): Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas A&M
Sun Belt (3): Appalachian State, Georgia State, Troy
Thanks. I was missing Georgia State.
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - ken d - 11-13-2017 12:05 PM
(11-12-2017 03:20 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: ACC - PROJECTION 9
Already bowl eligible (7) - Miami (FL), UVa, VT, Clemson, NCSU, Louisville, Wake
GT - Needs 1 from (@Duke, vs Georgia).
Duke - Needs 2 from (GT, @ Wake). Basically GT at Duke is an elimination game.
Pitt - Needs to beat @VT and Miami (FL). Not going to happen.
BC - Needs 1 from (@ UConn, @Syracuse). They'll probably make it.
Florida State - Needs 3 from (Del State, @Florida, and ULM). 50-50 at best here
Syracuse - Needs 2 from (@Louisville and BC). About a 30 percent chance here.
I think GT and BC make it and everyone else falls short. 9 total bowl eligible teams
___________
AAC - PROJECTION 6
Already eligible (5) Houston, Memphis, SMU, Navy, UCF, USF
Temple needs 1 from (UCF, @Tulsa). I think they get there.
Tulane needs 2 from(Houston and @SMU). I think they fall short.
So, the AAC gets 6 bowl eligible teams
________________
Big XII - PROJECTION - 6
Already eligible (5)- OU, TCU, OSU, WVU, ISU
Texas needs 1 from (@WVU, TTU). I think they get there
Tech needs 1 from (TCU, @UT). I think they fall short
KSU needs 1 from (@OSU, ISU) 50-50, I'll put them on the outside because they haven't beaten anyone of their remaining two teams' caliber all year
Projection - 6 teams
__________
Big Ten - Projection 8 teams
Already eligible -(7) Wisconsin, NW, Iowa, Ohio St, Mich St, Penn St, Mich
Minnesota - needs 1 from @NW, @Wisconsin. I think they fall short
Nebraska - needs 2 from (@Penn State, Iowa). Not happening
Purdue - needs 2 from @Iowa, Indiana. Unlikely, the PU/IU game is an elimination game
Indiana - needs 2 from (Rutgers, @Purdue). Both their remaining games are elimination games
Rutgers - needs 2 from (@Indiana, @ Mich State). I don't see them getting there
Maryland - needs 2 from (@Mich State, and Penn State. I don't see that happening.
Its possible that none of these teams qualify. But with so many paths, I'll guess that one makes it (I'm thinking Indiana or Purdue)
________
CUSA - Projection 8
Already eligible (5) - UNT, UAB, USM, FAU, FIU, Marshall
UTSA - Needs 1 from (Marshall, @LaTech).
WKU - Needs 1 from (MTSU, @FIU).
MTSU - Needs 1 from (@WKU, ODU)
LaTech - Needs 2 from (@UTEP, UTSA)
ODU - Needs 2 from (Rice, @MTSU)
Boy this is an interesting situation. Basically, if Marshall wins at UTSA, then only 1 from UTSA/LaTech bowls. WKU probably needs to beat MTSU to bowl, and if they do then ODU vs MTSU becomes an elimination game. I think La Tech, MTSU, and WKU make it. While its possible all 5 bowl, its unlikely.
______
Independents - Projection 2
Already eligible (2) - ND, Army
______
MAC - Projection 7
Already eligible (5) - Toledo, No. Ill, CMU, WMU, Ohio
Akron - Needs 1 from (Ohio, Kent). They'll get there
Miami (OH) - Needs 2 from (EMU, @Ball St.). They should make it
Buffalo - Needs 2 from (@Ball St, Ohio). Not likely
______
MWC - Projection 6
Already eligible(4) - Boise, Wyo, CSU, Fresno, SDSU
Utah State - Needs 1 from (Hawai'i, @AFA). I think they get there
AFA - Needs 2 from (@Boise, USU). Unlikely
UNLV - Needs 2 from (@NM, @Nevada). 50-50. I'm going to put them in.
______
Pac 12 - Projection 9
Already eligible - (5) -USC, Arizona, Wash St, Stanford, Wash State,
Arizona State - Needs 1 from (@Ore St, Arizona). They'll get there
UCLA - Needs 1 from (@USC, Cal)
Utah - Needs 1 from (@Wash, Colorado)
Colorado - Needs 1 from (@Utah)
Oregon - Needs 1 from (Arizona, Ore State). They'll get there
Cal - Needs 1 from (@Stanford, @UCLA).
This is another mess. Assuming favorites win rivalry games and Utah loses to Washington, then Oregon, Arizona State, the winner of Cal/UCLA, and the winner of Colorado/Utah bowl.
____
SEC - Projection 9
Already eligible - (8) Ala. Auburn, LSU, MSU, TAMU, Ga, USC, Ky.
Ole Miss - Needs 1 from (@Miss St, @LSU).
Missouri - Needs 1 from (@Vandy, @Ark)
Ark - Needs 2 from (Miss State, Missouri)
Vandy - Needs 2 from (Missouri, @ UTenn)
Tenn - Needs 2 from (@LSU, Vandy)
Basically if Mississippi State and LSU win out, and Missouri wins at Vandy, then only Missouri would go. I think that happens.
______
Sun Belt - Projection 6
Already eligible (3) - Troy, App, Georgia State
Ark State - Needs 1 from (Texas St, @ULM, Troy). They're bowling
ULL - Needs 2 from (NMSU, Ga Southern, @App). I think they make it
ULM - Needs 2 from (@Auburn, Ark State, @Florida State). Unlikely
USA - Needs 2 from (@Ga Southern, @NMSU).
NMSU - Needs 2 from (@ULL, Idaho, USA)
Idaho - Needs 2 from (Coastal, @NMSU, @Ga State)
Ok. I'll take ULL and Ark State, plus one more because its the Belt and nothing makes sense there.
So, there you have it as of today as far as I see it.
_____
I think that gets us to 76 bowl eligible teams. By the way, some bowl eligible teams could be staying at home if upsets happen
I also got to 76, by a slightly different route. I assumed Florida State would beat Florida to get the ACC to 10. I didn't have any of the remaining B1G teams making it.
If we go to APR scores, I have Air Force and Minnesota getting in, with Duke, Vanderbilt and Maryland falling short of the required 5th win. But if Vandy gets to 5, there is an interesting choice to make, since they are tied with Minnesota on APR score.
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - Frog in the Kitchen Sink - 11-13-2017 01:42 PM
Big 12 more likely than not will have 2 more teams teams eligible.
100% UT or Tech. Then would need a losing sweep in the other 3 games (two KSU and other game of loser of Tech and UT) to prevent a second team. Using FPI, KSU is 16% to win at OSU, 49.3% to win at home against ISU. Just for KSU, it is 58% chance of bowling. When you add in the chance the loser of UT and Tech gets a win is it a 71% chance the Big 12 will have 2 more teams eligible.
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive - stever20 - 11-13-2017 01:48 PM
(11-13-2017 01:42 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote: Big 12 more likely than not will have 2 more teams teams eligible.
100% UT or Tech. Then would need a losing sweep in the other 3 games (two KSU and other game of loser of Tech and UT) to prevent a second team. Using FPI, KSU is 16% to win at OSU, 49.3% to win at home against ISU. Just for KSU, it is 58% chance of bowling. When you add in the chance the loser of UT and Tech gets a win is it a 71% chance the Big 12 will have 2 more teams eligible.
Just looking-
Texas is a 46.5% chance @ West Virginia(frankly feels a bit high)
TT is a 27.0% chance vs TCU(also feels a bit high)
Texas is a 69% favorite vs Texas Tech
Odds really good that Texas beats Tech. And Tech has much less of a shot vs TCU.