(06-13-2013 11:31 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-13-2013 11:25 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Pretty clear how we watch TV is rapidly changing and I'm not sure how the conference based networks revenue model (dependent on carriage fees) will fare as those habits change.

Conference TV deals with ESPN and Fox are also dependent on carriage fees. Those fees are the source of the money that ESPN and Fox have been spending on TV rights for pro and college sports. If ESPN loses the ability to stop picking the pocket of every cable/satellite subscriber for $5 every month, then the current TV deals become a bubble that will pop.

True, but those are not as at risk as specialty networks are, IMO. I think specialty networks will be the first to feel the effects of a shift.

(06-13-2013 11:25 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The most interesting part of the article is this:

"That’s the problem. The Big 12 has found a bonanza with 10 schools. The Texas/Oklahoma franchise, coupled with some interesting brands like West Virginia, OSU and Kansas State, means the Big 12 gets top dollar from the networks and has to share it only among 10 schools. Long-term, it doesn’t seem the most viable plan, but short-term, it’s the mother lode."

Quite frankly, I'm not so sure it isn't a viable long term plan. Looking at the schedules for 14 team leagues, I'm starting to think the round robin talk wasn't just lip service. And I'm not sure the biggest carrot for getting big- conference based networks- is going to be as big of a factor going forward. Pretty clear how we watch TV is rapidly changing and I'm not sure how the conference based networks revenue model (dependent on carriage fees) will fare as those habits change. I could see a shift toward financial forces favoring smaller conferences in a decade or two.

I've said all along the 10 team model with round robin play in every sport is the optimum solution. The bigger conferences will find that their arrangement will allow certain teams an easy path the conference championship, while others have to battle through difficult schedules. That can only lead to trouble down the road. We've already seen some complaints about unequal schedules in both football and basketball coming out of the SEC. Those complaints aren't going to go away...

The old Southern Conference discovered that a bigger conference doesn't lead to most stability many times throughout its history, and other conferences have seen the same. The original WAC comes to mind. The MWC owes its birth to that. Conferences moving to larger and larger sizes are merely following the leader. The SEC went to 12 for a championship game, and the ACC eventually followed suit. Then the Pac and B1G jumped on that bandwagon. They'll experience their growing pains, just like every large conference that's ever formed, and no longer exists in its larger format. One day they'll follow the leader to smaller sized conferences that promote better conference unity, like the B12...

(06-13-2013 11:33 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(06-13-2013 11:13 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  WVU fans are even happier, now that Yeager Airport has direct flights to DFW...

True...but we can drive to our games...

Just messing with u...

Since I no longer drive, driving to games is of little importance to me...

One thing for sure TCU, West Virginia, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville and Notre Dame are better off in their new respective conferences. I truly feel sorry for Connecticut, Cincinnati and South Florida.

(06-13-2013 11:59 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  One thing for sure TCU, West Virginia, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville and Notre Dame are better off in their new respective conferences. I truly feel sorry for Connecticut, Cincinnati and South Florida.

Utah as well...them and Rutgers are as schools the biggest winners currently.

But, just 10 years ago think about it...Louisville & TCU was in C-USA & Utah in the MWC...10 years later those three schools are in the ACC, Big XII & Pac 12...those 3 schools dream leagues...amazing if you think about it...

(06-13-2013 11:49 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(06-13-2013 11:25 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The most interesting part of the article is this:

"That’s the problem. The Big 12 has found a bonanza with 10 schools. The Texas/Oklahoma franchise, coupled with some interesting brands like West Virginia, OSU and Kansas State, means the Big 12 gets top dollar from the networks and has to share it only among 10 schools. Long-term, it doesn’t seem the most viable plan, but short-term, it’s the mother lode."

Quite frankly, I'm not so sure it isn't a viable long term plan. Looking at the schedules for 14 team leagues, I'm starting to think the round robin talk wasn't just lip service. And I'm not sure the biggest carrot for getting big- conference based networks- is going to be as big of a factor going forward. Pretty clear how we watch TV is rapidly changing and I'm not sure how the conference based networks revenue model (dependent on carriage fees) will fare as those habits change. I could see a shift toward financial forces favoring smaller conferences in a decade or two.

I've said all along the 10 team model with round robin play in every sport is the optimum solution. The bigger conferences will find that their arrangement will allow certain teams an easy path the conference championship, while others have to battle through difficult schedules. That can only lead to trouble down the road. We've already seen some complaints about unequal schedules in both football and basketball coming out of the SEC. Those complaints aren't going to go away...

The old Southern Conference discovered that a bigger conference doesn't lead to most stability many times throughout its history, and other conferences have seen the same. The original WAC comes to mind. The MWC owes its birth to that. Conferences moving to larger and larger sizes are merely following the leader. The SEC went to 12 for a championship game, and the ACC eventually followed suit. Then the Pac and B1G jumped on that bandwagon. They'll experience their growing pains, just like every large conference that's ever formed, and no longer exists in its larger format. One day they'll follow the leader to smaller sized conferences that promote better conference unity, like the B12...

(06-13-2013 11:33 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(06-13-2013 11:13 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  WVU fans are even happier, now that Yeager Airport has direct flights to DFW...

True...but we can drive to our games...

Just messing with u...

Since I no longer drive, driving to games is of little importance to me...

It will be interesting to see what happens. While there are virtues of 10 teams competitively, the bottom line will always take precedence. If smaller conferences ever come back into vogue it will be because of financial benefits, not because they rediscover round robin religion.

I do wonder that even if market forces shift and start to favor smaller conference models, if the contractual complexities will make it prohibitive to have breakaway scenario like the birth of the MWC.

(06-13-2013 11:46 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(06-13-2013 11:31 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-13-2013 11:25 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Pretty clear how we watch TV is rapidly changing and I'm not sure how the conference based networks revenue model (dependent on carriage fees) will fare as those habits change.

Conference TV deals with ESPN and Fox are also dependent on carriage fees. Those fees are the source of the money that ESPN and Fox have been spending on TV rights for pro and college sports. If ESPN loses the ability to stop picking the pocket of every cable/satellite subscriber for $5 every month, then the current TV deals become a bubble that will pop.

True, but those are not as at risk as specialty networks are, IMO. I think specialty networks will be the first to feel the effects of a shift.

I think conference networks as a big money maker because of forced carriage fees are doomed in the long run. They will be forced to go to subscription service. Now that long run may be 10 years. It may be 30 years. But with the media changes, its not going on forever. A broader network like ESPN will weather it better. But they will feel an impact as well.

And in a subscription world, my guess is you probably make more selling a subscription at $X to each of 12 schools than charging $X + $Y for a conference network that fewer people will buy because they aren't especially interested in the other schools and don't want to pay the extra money.

(06-13-2013 12:20 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(06-13-2013 11:49 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(06-13-2013 11:25 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The most interesting part of the article is this:

"That’s the problem. The Big 12 has found a bonanza with 10 schools. The Texas/Oklahoma franchise, coupled with some interesting brands like West Virginia, OSU and Kansas State, means the Big 12 gets top dollar from the networks and has to share it only among 10 schools. Long-term, it doesn’t seem the most viable plan, but short-term, it’s the mother lode."

Quite frankly, I'm not so sure it isn't a viable long term plan. Looking at the schedules for 14 team leagues, I'm starting to think the round robin talk wasn't just lip service. And I'm not sure the biggest carrot for getting big- conference based networks- is going to be as big of a factor going forward. Pretty clear how we watch TV is rapidly changing and I'm not sure how the conference based networks revenue model (dependent on carriage fees) will fare as those habits change. I could see a shift toward financial forces favoring smaller conferences in a decade or two.

I've said all along the 10 team model with round robin play in every sport is the optimum solution. The bigger conferences will find that their arrangement will allow certain teams an easy path the conference championship, while others have to battle through difficult schedules. That can only lead to trouble down the road. We've already seen some complaints about unequal schedules in both football and basketball coming out of the SEC. Those complaints aren't going to go away...

The old Southern Conference discovered that a bigger conference doesn't lead to most stability many times throughout its history, and other conferences have seen the same. The original WAC comes to mind. The MWC owes its birth to that. Conferences moving to larger and larger sizes are merely following the leader. The SEC went to 12 for a championship game, and the ACC eventually followed suit. Then the Pac and B1G jumped on that bandwagon. They'll experience their growing pains, just like every large conference that's ever formed, and no longer exists in its larger format. One day they'll follow the leader to smaller sized conferences that promote better conference unity, like the B12...

(06-13-2013 11:33 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(06-13-2013 11:13 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  WVU fans are even happier, now that Yeager Airport has direct flights to DFW...

True...but we can drive to our games...

Just messing with u...

Since I no longer drive, driving to games is of little importance to me...

It will be interesting to see what happens. While there are virtues of 10 teams competitively, the bottom line will always take precedence. If smaller conferences ever come back into vogue it will be because of financial benefits, not because they rediscover round robin religion.

I do wonder that even if market forces shift and start to favor smaller conference models, if the contractual complexities will make it prohibitive to have breakaway scenario like the birth of the MWC.

One thing about contracts, they all come to an end eventually, and they have to be renewed before the obligations that come with the contract continue to have an effect. We shall see what comes of that in due time...

I still think the Big 12 will add two from:

BYU
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
East Carolina
South Florida

I do not see Memphis or Tulane as viable choices.

Actually, BYU and ECU are the best football choices, with each, being capable of 80,000 to 70,000 attendance figures in the Big 12.

(06-13-2013 01:29 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  I still think the Big 12 will add two from:

BYU
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
East Carolina
South Florida

I do not see Memphis or Tulane as viable choices.

Actually, BYU and ECU are the best football choices, with each, being capable of 80,000 to 70,000 attendance figures in the Big 12.

PBS

(06-13-2013 12:37 PM)bullet Wrote:  And in a subscription world, my guess is you probably make more selling a subscription at $X to each of 12 schools than charging $X + $Y for a conference network that fewer people will buy because they aren't especially interested in the other schools and don't want to pay the extra money.

Agreed.

(06-13-2013 01:29 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  I still think the Big 12 will add two from:

BYU
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
East Carolina
South Florida

I do not see Memphis or Tulane as viable choices.

Actually, BYU and ECU are the best football choices, with each, being capable of 80,000 to 70,000 attendance figures in the Big 12.

Those are all great schools, but the league would be giving up a round robin (meaning schools would give up playing UT and OU yearly), would be faced with awkward divisions and would likely take a per team revenue hit. There is no way the Big 12 is expanding at this point.

(06-12-2013 02:45 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  

(06-12-2013 02:17 PM)Poliicious Wrote:  B12 doesn't need to expand back to 12 to get a TV network, they can stay at 10 and partner with another conference to provide inventory to fill up the 168 Hr weekly program schedule. Every B12 program save WVA is on CST while every MAC program except NIU is on EST. MAC already has current B12 member WVA as a Soccer affiliate and a former B12 member Mizzou as a Wrestling affiliate. OU's Wrestling coach has stated he wants the 4 B12 Wrestling programs to join the MAC and OU is the kingpin of B12 Wrestling.

Once that happens and 4 B12 programs become MAC affiliates (WVA would be in 2 sports), some kind of time sharing on a network that would broadcast events for both conferences makes sense. For August, Sept & Oct programming the only men's team sport the B12 sponsors is Football; MAC soccer & football can fill in Sun thru Fri airtime. Once Soccer is over, WMU, Miami & BGSU hockey can help fill in airtime from Oct through March along with MAC Wrestling. When conference football ends in December, the only B12 men's team sports to fill up airtime is Hoops & Indoor Track until Baseball season starts in Feb/March.

With most programs on separate time zones, MAC teams can take the 7PM EST/6PM CST time slots for hoops while the B12 gets the 8PM CST time slot.

MAC would love to get their own sports network but it won't happen and the B12 needs inventory to fill up all those hours, can only watch so many reruns of Friday Night Lights. Leagues are primarily on separate time zones. Would be a mistake for this not to happen.

Yeah, the Big 12 should partner with the MAC for a conference network...now I've heard everything.

B12 does not have enough content to support a network and the MAC doesn't have enough juice to get one started. WVA & former B12 member Mizzou are MAC affiliates and if OU's head Wrestling coach has his way, B12 wrestling will be folded into the MAC. B12 Men's Swimming is down to 3 members and may need a landing place for them.

If and when those actions take place, WVA(2), OU, OK ST, IA ST, TCU, UT & TT would be MAC affiliates in at least 1 sport. All MAC schools but NIU are on EST and all B12 programs but WVA are on CST. MAC could get the early nite games and the B12 the 8 PM & later games. The SEC will shortly have it's own network and the B12 is the only AQ league with 10 teams they need a partner to pull off a sports network.

(06-13-2013 08:01 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  This article is Big 12 damage control. When I read this kind of revisionist BS I remember this comment West Virginia's Senator Joe Manchin:

"You know what, Louisville, go back and toughen up a little bit."

Took your advice Senator. Since you uttered this ill advised comment, Louisville has:

Played for a trip to NCAA Soccer's College Cup. (You might not be familiar with that sport since your conference doesn't play it

WVA's soccer program plays in the MAC.

(06-13-2013 03:02 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(06-13-2013 01:29 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  I still think the Big 12 will add two from:

BYU
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
East Carolina
South Florida

I do not see Memphis or Tulane as viable choices.

Actually, BYU and ECU are the best football choices, with each, being capable of 80,000 to 70,000 attendance figures in the Big 12.

Those are all great schools, but the league would be giving up a round robin (meaning schools would give up playing UT and OU yearly), would be faced with awkward divisions and would likely take a per team revenue hit. There is no way the Big 12 is expanding at this point.

You're right in saying that the UT and OU games are the most valuable in the round robin, but I think that schools like KU also value the other games in Texas. KU has a long history with TCU for example, and even more importantly in today's bottom-line world that's a game in Fort Worth every other year. Not only does KU have a lot of alums in Dallas/Fort Worth, but it's right on the I-35 corridor to allow for easy access from KS, and of course that's a high profile area. There are some fine schools in the remaining expansion candidates, but I'm not sure they move the needle enough to get votes for splitting the payout more and reducing exposure in Texas.

(06-14-2013 09:19 AM)BewareThePhog Wrote:  

(06-13-2013 03:02 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(06-13-2013 01:29 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  I still think the Big 12 will add two from:

BYU
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
East Carolina
South Florida

I do not see Memphis or Tulane as viable choices.

Actually, BYU and ECU are the best football choices, with each, being capable of 80,000 to 70,000 attendance figures in the Big 12.

Those are all great schools, but the league would be giving up a round robin (meaning schools would give up playing UT and OU yearly), would be faced with awkward divisions and would likely take a per team revenue hit. There is no way the Big 12 is expanding at this point.

You're right in saying that the UT and OU games are the most valuable in the round robin, but I think that schools like KU also value the other games in Texas. KU has a long history with TCU for example, and even more importantly in today's bottom-line world that's a game in Fort Worth every other year. Not only does KU have a lot of alums in Dallas/Fort Worth, but it's right on the I-35 corridor to allow for easy access from KS, and of course that's a high profile area. There are some fine schools in the remaining expansion candidates, but I'm not sure they move the needle enough to get votes for splitting the payout more and reducing exposure in Texas.

1) BYU will never join the Big 12 unless the Big 12 gives them a waiver to NEVER play (any sport) on Sunday.
2) ECU, really...... How big is their Media Market & Stadium?
3)
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
South Florida

And I also think that UConn is a longshot.....

JMHO

(06-14-2013 09:49 AM)TyBull Wrote:  

(06-14-2013 09:19 AM)BewareThePhog Wrote:  

(06-13-2013 03:02 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(06-13-2013 01:29 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  I still think the Big 12 will add two from:

BYU
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
East Carolina
South Florida

I do not see Memphis or Tulane as viable choices.

Actually, BYU and ECU are the best football choices, with each, being capable of 80,000 to 70,000 attendance figures in the Big 12.

Those are all great schools, but the league would be giving up a round robin (meaning schools would give up playing UT and OU yearly), would be faced with awkward divisions and would likely take a per team revenue hit. There is no way the Big 12 is expanding at this point.

You're right in saying that the UT and OU games are the most valuable in the round robin, but I think that schools like KU also value the other games in Texas. KU has a long history with TCU for example, and even more importantly in today's bottom-line world that's a game in Fort Worth every other year. Not only does KU have a lot of alums in Dallas/Fort Worth, but it's right on the I-35 corridor to allow for easy access from KS, and of course that's a high profile area. There are some fine schools in the remaining expansion candidates, but I'm not sure they move the needle enough to get votes for splitting the payout more and reducing exposure in Texas.

1) BYU will never join the Big 12 unless the Big 12 gives them a waiver to NEVER play (any sport) on Sunday.
2) ECU, really...... How big is their Media Market & Stadium?
3)
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
South Florida

And I also think that UConn is a longshot.....

JMHO

Aside from the Sunday play issue, while BYU's somewhat national appeal is attractive, another negative would be that it would further exacerbate travel issues to add a partner far removed from the rest of the conference, and in the opposite direction of the one current "island member".

(06-14-2013 09:49 AM)TyBull Wrote:  

(06-14-2013 09:19 AM)BewareThePhog Wrote:  

(06-13-2013 03:02 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(06-13-2013 01:29 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  I still think the Big 12 will add two from:

BYU
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
East Carolina
South Florida

I do not see Memphis or Tulane as viable choices.

Actually, BYU and ECU are the best football choices, with each, being capable of 80,000 to 70,000 attendance figures in the Big 12.

Those are all great schools, but the league would be giving up a round robin (meaning schools would give up playing UT and OU yearly), would be faced with awkward divisions and would likely take a per team revenue hit. There is no way the Big 12 is expanding at this point.

You're right in saying that the UT and OU games are the most valuable in the round robin, but I think that schools like KU also value the other games in Texas. KU has a long history with TCU for example, and even more importantly in today's bottom-line world that's a game in Fort Worth every other year. Not only does KU have a lot of alums in Dallas/Fort Worth, but it's right on the I-35 corridor to allow for easy access from KS, and of course that's a high profile area. There are some fine schools in the remaining expansion candidates, but I'm not sure they move the needle enough to get votes for splitting the payout more and reducing exposure in Texas.

1) BYU will never join the Big 12 unless the Big 12 gives them a waiver to NEVER play (any sport) on Sunday.
2) ECU, really...... How big is their Media Market & Stadium?
3)
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
South Florida

And I also think that UConn is a longshot.....

JMHO

With the exception of WVU, I don't think ECU is a good fit for the Big XII. However they have a 50,000 person stadium with plans to bump up to 58,000 in the near future.

At 50,000 their stadium is on par with Baylor (45k), Kansas (50k), Kstate (50k), TCU (45k), IA State (55k). The expansion to 58,000 would be just south of TTU(60), WVU (60), and OkState(60).

Their baseball stadium (5000) would be the third largest behind UT and Texas Tech. Only their arena (8000) would need to be improved to get to the 12,000 average size.

Market-size Greenville metro is a 200,000 with its own radio and tv stations.

I agree. BYU is a very long way from Big 12 and West. Cincinnati and Both USF and UCF along with another Southeast or Midwestern school look like the Best available pick ups to get WVU off the Island.
But if All are happy at 10 then unless all conferences need 14 that is the way it will probably remain.

(06-14-2013 10:38 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  I agree. BYU is a very long way from Big 12 and West. Cincinnati and Both USF and UCF along with another Southeast or Midwestern school look like the Best available pick ups to get WVU off the Island.
But if All are happy at 10 then unless all conferences need 14 that is the way it will probably remain.

Yup!