(09-24-2014 12:42 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I guess you can say ECU and Cincy both control their own destiny. If either win out, they will be the G5 rep.

Memphis, Temple and Boise State still are in the G5 representative conversation as well.

Those teams may be in the conversation, but they don't control their own fate. Memphis plays Cincy but not ECU. They would have a win vs Ole Miss. They would be interesting- but think ECU would get it quite frankly if both finish 11-1.

Temple- just not enough OOC juice.

Boise- just not enough to beat out a 12-0 Cincy or 11-1 ECU.

(09-24-2014 11:37 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I'd push Marshall ahead of NIU for sure. The MAC is putrid this year and they got blown up by Arkansas. Probably right on Boise and Nevada being 3/4.

The MAC being terrible hurts Marshall too since three of their four OOC wins are against the MAC and the fourth is against an FCS team. NIU has a P5 win which might count for something even though it's against a not very good P5. You're probably right, though, that a 13-0 Marshall would have the edge over a one-loss NIU. Undefeated is hard to ignore regardless of the schedule.

(09-24-2014 12:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:42 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I guess you can say ECU and Cincy both control their own destiny. If either win out, they will be the G5 rep.

Memphis, Temple and Boise State still are in the G5 representative conversation as well.

Those teams may be in the conversation, but they don't control their own fate. Memphis plays Cincy but not ECU. They would have a win vs Ole Miss. They would be interesting- but think ECU would get it quite frankly if both finish 11-1.

Temple- just not enough OOC juice.

Boise- just not enough to beat out a 12-0 Cincy or 11-1 ECU.

Maybe at 12-1 for Boise. The CCG adds a little bit more to the equation.

(09-24-2014 12:49 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:42 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I guess you can say ECU and Cincy both control their own destiny. If either win out, they will be the G5 rep.

Memphis, Temple and Boise State still are in the G5 representative conversation as well.

Those teams may be in the conversation, but they don't control their own fate. Memphis plays Cincy but not ECU. They would have a win vs Ole Miss. They would be interesting- but think ECU would get it quite frankly if both finish 11-1.

Temple- just not enough OOC juice.

Boise- just not enough to beat out a 12-0 Cincy or 11-1 ECU.

Maybe at 12-1 for Boise. The CCG adds a little bit more to the equation.

Don't think a win over at best a 10-2 Nevada team(who they already had beaten) would be that meaningful quite frankly). Also, no chance Boise gets in over a 12-0 Cincy team in a million years.

If Marshall is 13-0 and the AAC and MWC champions both have 2 losses, that would be a very close call and I don't think the outcome can be predicted without studying the Strength-of-Schedule very carefully. My hunch is that Marshall would squeak through under those circumstances, but that would be so close.

(09-24-2014 12:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:42 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I guess you can say ECU and Cincy both control their own destiny. If either win out, they will be the G5 rep.

Memphis, Temple and Boise State still are in the G5 representative conversation as well.

Those teams may be in the conversation, but they don't control their own fate. Memphis plays Cincy but not ECU. They would have a win vs Ole Miss. They would be interesting- but think ECU would get it quite frankly if both finish 11-1.

Nobody knows how Ole Miss is going to finish, but good grief, beating #10 Ole Miss, an SEC West team, would easily trump ECU beating Virginia Tech. It would be far and away the best win a G5 team has on their resume.

And their close loss to #11 UCLA wouldn't look any worse than ECU's loss to SC.

In that scenario, I would bet on Memphis over ECU to get the G5 bid.

(09-24-2014 12:54 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:42 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I guess you can say ECU and Cincy both control their own destiny. If either win out, they will be the G5 rep.

Memphis, Temple and Boise State still are in the G5 representative conversation as well.

Those teams may be in the conversation, but they don't control their own fate. Memphis plays Cincy but not ECU. They would have a win vs Ole Miss. They would be interesting- but think ECU would get it quite frankly if both finish 11-1.

Nobody knows how Ole Miss is going to finish, but good grief, beating #10 Ole Miss, an SEC West team, would easily trump ECU beating Virginia Tech. It would be far and away the best win a G5 team has on their resume.

And their close loss to #11 UCLA wouldn't look any worse than ECU's loss to SC.

In that scenario, I would bet on Memphis over ECU to get the G5 bid.

ECU would have the 2nd win over UNC. Also, Ole Miss could by the end of the year be a 6-6 team. To not go 6-6, they would have to beat one of Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, Auburn, Miss St(and not lose to Tennessee.)

Also- Memphis avoids playing UCF, while ECU avoids playing Houston. So SOS in conference play is plus ECU.

(09-24-2014 12:51 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:49 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:42 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I guess you can say ECU and Cincy both control their own destiny. If either win out, they will be the G5 rep.

Memphis, Temple and Boise State still are in the G5 representative conversation as well.

Those teams may be in the conversation, but they don't control their own fate. Memphis plays Cincy but not ECU. They would have a win vs Ole Miss. They would be interesting- but think ECU would get it quite frankly if both finish 11-1.

Temple- just not enough OOC juice.

Boise- just not enough to beat out a 12-0 Cincy or 11-1 ECU.

Maybe at 12-1 for Boise. The CCG adds a little bit more to the equation.

Don't think a win over at best a 10-2 Nevada team(who they already had beaten) would be that meaningful quite frankly). Also, no chance Boise gets in over a 12-0 Cincy team in a million years.

A 12-0 Cincy...your right but over an 11-1 ECU? When BSU beats a ranked BYU?

(09-24-2014 12:16 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:15 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 11:03 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  If ECU wins out, there's little chance another G5 overtakes them.

If Cincinnati beats Ohio State in the horseshoe - and wins out - there won't be anything ECU can do. That would give ECU 2 losses, and UC a big leg up. So don't go counting chickens yet.

Well ECU would still decide its own destiny then since we play Cincy. We beat them and we're in. So in fact, there IS something we can do about it.

Not sure about the rules on conference champs. If co-champs is good enough for the G5 slot, there's no guarantee ECU beats out Cincinnati. Pollsters have shown a disinclination to consider head-to-head.

(09-24-2014 01:03 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:16 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:15 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 11:03 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  If ECU wins out, there's little chance another G5 overtakes them.

If Cincinnati beats Ohio State in the horseshoe - and wins out - there won't be anything ECU can do. That would give ECU 2 losses, and UC a big leg up. So don't go counting chickens yet.

Well ECU would still decide its own destiny then since we play Cincy. We beat them and we're in. So in fact, there IS something we can do about it.

Not sure about the rules on conference champs. If co-champs is good enough for the G5 slot, there's no guarantee ECU beats out Cincinnati. Pollsters have shown a disinclination to consider head-to-head.

8-0 ECU would top 7-1 Cincy.

(09-24-2014 01:03 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:51 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:49 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:42 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  Memphis, Temple and Boise State still are in the G5 representative conversation as well.

Those teams may be in the conversation, but they don't control their own fate. Memphis plays Cincy but not ECU. They would have a win vs Ole Miss. They would be interesting- but think ECU would get it quite frankly if both finish 11-1.

Temple- just not enough OOC juice.

Boise- just not enough to beat out a 12-0 Cincy or 11-1 ECU.

Maybe at 12-1 for Boise. The CCG adds a little bit more to the equation.

Don't think a win over at best a 10-2 Nevada team(who they already had beaten) would be that meaningful quite frankly). Also, no chance Boise gets in over a 12-0 Cincy team in a million years.

A 12-0 Cincy...your right but over an 11-1 ECU? When BSU beats a ranked BYU?

A lot would hinge on what VT does. If VT finishes 10-2(losing the division to GT on tiebreaker)- they'll be ranked probably about equal to BYU. Also, you have UNC who could get some wins and help VT out. Also for BYU to matter- that gives Nevada, Utah St, and UNLV extra losses.

Also, UCF could help out ECU big time if they beat BYU in a few weeks.

You guys all know that somehow, someway, some Cartel program is going to get that spot no matter what, right?

(09-24-2014 10:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Here's my assessment:

1) Clearly, ECU has the inside track to the G5 Access Bowl spot. It is theirs to lose. The AP and Coaches poll make that clear. No, the CFP is not obligated to follow those polls, but there is no reason to believe that their thinking would be significantly different either. It is clear that the consensus is, as of now, that ECU is the best G5 team and they would certainly get the Access bid if the determination was being done today.

Still, I don't think they are anything like a given for it, for three reasons:

1) They already have a loss, which IMO means they have no further margin for error. One loss is absorbable, but if they were to lose again, I think that loss would loom larger. It will be difficult for the committee to declare a two-loss team as the best of the G5.

ECU is seemingly in good shape because they have nothing but AAC games remaining, but they are not the 85 Bears so many of these games will be dangerous.

2) Another factor that will be in play here is how current #13 South Carolina's season unfolds. If they go on to have an excellent year, that will make ECU's loss to them seem very understandable and it won't hurt is much. But if SC collapses, then the loss will look worse than it does now. SC does play a relatively soft SEC East schedule, but there are minefield games nonetheless. Clearly, it is in ECU's interest that SC keep winning.

3) The fate of UNC and VT. Maybe the biggest reason why the loss to SC hasn't hurt ECU much is that they have those notable wins against ACC rivals, both of which got big play in the national media. But, the lustre of those wins will fade if UNC and VT both fade out. UNC almost certainly will lose a few more times so that win will not look as good two months from now.

More ominous for ECU was VT's loss to Georgia Tech this past weekend. It would be great for ECU if VT were to maintain their status as a ranked team, but that is now questionable. VT's national profile soared thanks to their win at Ohio State, but two losses have diminished. Further losses by VT hurts ECU.

IOW's, it's far too early to be fitting ECU for the G5 slipper. Lots can happen over the next 8 weeks.

No, there are still eight (8) games to be played yet!

How is this even a question?

Show me the best possible scenario for every team that is possibly in contention and then ask...way too much FB to be played.

Still way too early, but ECU does control their destiny - they win out, they should be in. The game against UC in Nov will go along way in deciding who goes.

No ECU is far from a given, but ECU is a given if they win out. That's a gigantic if though there's a lot of games left and I've watched way too many ECU teams of the past get off to great starts only to have a couple of losses that leave you scratching your head. Playing big in the big games isn't my concern with ECU, it's playing well on the road against teams we "should" beat.

I do find it ironic, how many people claimed the polls were irrelevant because the committee will use SOS to determine the G5 team. If BYU's only loss is to Boise St., that could push their SOS pass ECU if VT and UNC fall apart. Personally, I think ECU should be the front runner but if BSU wins out and beats say a top 15 BYU and wins their CCG, it could get interesting for a 12-1 BSU vs 11-1 ECU.

If BYU is 12-1, the title game vs Nevada is at best a 9-3 team. That doesn't help them much as the extra win- plus it would hurt Boise's 2nd win quite frankly. Also, as we showed with Memphis- Ole Miss could easily be a 7-5 team end of the year...

(not to mention, if Memphis were to go 11-1, they would be in over Boise because of the comparison to Ole Miss quite frankly).

S20, agree totally if Memphis were to win. But I am just stating that BSU may not be counted out just yet. Also, we don't know how the committee will review conferences with no CG verse ones with. Still way to early to crown anyone just yet but is sure fun to speculate all the possible outcomes. :)

I think it would take a LOT for Boise to get it over ECU. VT and UNC would have to collapse, and Boise may need Ole Miss to win one or two of those west games. Also, Boise would likely need Cincy to lose at least 1 if not both of the OSU/Miami games.