(11-04-2017 11:25 AM)TripleA Wrote: Unless the sun starts rising in the west, the AAC champ has the access bowl, which would then almost certainly be the Peach.
It's extremely probable, but not a certainty. As I mentioned earlier, the following scenario, while unlikely, could result in another conference getting it:
1. SMU loses to UCF, but wins out to capture the AAC West on the Memphis tiebreaker.
2. SMU then beats the East champ to land at 10-3 with good wins versus against UCF/USF, Memphis, and Arkansas State and losses to TCU, Houston, and UCF.
3A. Toledo wins out, finishing with their best wins against Ohio, NIU, and Akron with their only loss being to The U.
3B. Boise State wins out, with wins against SDSU, Colorado State, and Troy and losses to Wazzu and UVa.
Then it's in the hand of the committee. SMU has better wins at the end of the day, but losses matter and they'd have three. Toledo or Boise get the bid if their loss teams keep playing well; even with no big wins a 12-win Toledo team with their only loss to the CFP-bound Canes has a legit argument.
For the record I think UCF will win out, they're for real. But until Toledo and Boise lose or Memphis wins the West over SMU, it's not locked in imo.