Saw this article today:
Dennis Dodd says there won't be an 8 team CFP anytime soon
I'm going to preface this with saying I'm not exactly sure how the powers that be are going to pull this off. I have some theories on that, but I'm not 100% certain.
I'll also say that the CFP expansion to 8 won't occur next year or anything so some of this depends on what exactly Dodd means by "anytime soon."
1. Dodd's first point is that ESPN isn't exactly in a spending mood. Technically, that's correct. ESPN is laying off a few more people and it probably won't be the last time they do it. That and the cable industry is suffering from cord-cutting.
I'll be fair here and say that Dodd wrote this article today before news came out that Disney was looking at purchasing Fox's system of RSNs. If that doesn't scream "we're ready to invest in more sports" then I don't know what does.
But even before Dodd wrote this article, he should have been cognizant of that the fact that Disney did just lay the groundwork for an ESPN streaming service. Don't think ESPN is about to fade into the night. What they'll do is what any strong business does and adapt to the marketplace. Cable and satellite subs will likely be around for some time yet, but slowly and surely ESPN is going to start making money from their OTT service. And I'd still be a little surprised if Disney didn't eventually bundle their movie and TV package with ESPN on the streaming side. They'd probably make more money that way although they may take a while to experiment with other approaches. After all, the technology is still fairly new and the market isn't anywhere close to being cornered yet. If anyone was going to corner it, it'd be Disney. There's plenty of time for experimentation.
Point being this, content ultimately pays the bills for any network and especially a sports network. Adding another round to the playoff would be a guaranteed money maker compared to some of the other things ESPN invests their time in. I have a very hard time believing they wouldn't be interested in it.
2. Dodd references health concerns. This is probably his strongest point, but don't underestimate the creativity of the powers that be when it comes to making adjustments.
I alluded earlier that I have some theories on how administrators could pull off an expanded playoff. We saw one of those ways earlier this season. Week Zero...
From SI
A quirk in the NCAA rules allowed teams playing Hawaii to go ahead and schedule their season openers a week before everyone else. Stanford and Rice were given a waiver, as far as I can tell, to play that week in Australia due to the excessive travel. And there you had several FBS schools playing during Week Zero. I have a hard time believe there was no coordination of this whatsoever at a higher level...that this wasn't some sort of experiment. I would bet a large number of administrators and execs were looking to see how this played out.
How hard would it be for the NCAA to alter their rules a little bit and give everyone that extra week to start their season? You think the networks would be interested in getting an extra week of a high performing sport if for no other reason than they could spread out their offerings and get a little more bang for their buck? What would it communicate to those concerned with health if college football was proactive and went back to a setup that allowed everyone to get 2 BYE weeks again?
Not to mention, college athletes are probably about to start getting much better insurance and other benefits added to their scholarship package.
3. Dodd references the FCS argument...the idea that other divisions play a lot of playoff games and so why couldn't FBS do the same?
Well, he's half right. FBS isn't about to cut back on the regular season and they won't get rid of the conference championship games...too much money in both of those endeavors.
But we're not talking about adding multiple rounds here. We're talking about adding 1 round or 4 additional teams to the mix. Not all of these schools will have even played a CCG. Only 2 of them at most will play a 16th game.
It's true that pro careers could be on the line here, but they're already on the line every week. It's a physical game. They were on the line when we talked about creating a playoff in the first place. All of these arguments existed prior to the current setup. What prompted change? I'll get into that in a little bit.
4. His next point is the most non-sensical.
Quote:An eight-team playoff doesn't necessarily solve anything: It has to be the seven best teams plus an automatic spot for the best of the Group of Five. It cannot be five Power Five conference winners plus three at-large for the same reason the CFP doesn't automatically pick conference winners. You don't want your 8-4 division winner beating a 12-0 division winner and knocking your best team out of the playoff. Plus, expansion would introduce another layer of mediocrity. Do we really want a three-loss team winning a national championship? That might be the case this season if you consider Auburn (10-3) might have had entree into this year's eight-team field.
No, no, and more no.
First of all, the G5 isn't even in this discussion. One of the primary reasons for that is that they'll end up with their own playoff before it's all said and done.
Secondly and most importantly, there is no mechanism outside of political pressure to force administrators to include a single G5 school in any circumstance. That pressure won't come into play as long as a committee has discretion over who to pick. While I'd love a P4 with conference champions admitted, it won't happen because the politicos will have an argument that a strong G5 has no access at that point. Well, the G5 doesn't actually need access. They just need the illusion of access. That means we need a committee to choose teams based on an indeterminate criteria. We can't have conference champions being automatically admitted if there are only 4 spots.
Point being this, we'll end up expanding to 8 so that all 5 conferences get their champion in. The lack of exposure and revenue will drive administrators to want more guarantees. The guarantees will come in the form of auto-bids for the Power 5. This is why getting 2 SEC teams into the CFP this year could be so important. Remember, it was the all SEC BCS Championship game in 2011 that ultimately gave us the CFP in the first place. At this point, I really believe 2 conferences being left out of the CFP will give us an expansion.
Once the P5 administrators have their guarantees then it will be up to the committee to more subjectively choose 3 additional participants. This will give deserving teams a shot at redemption and boost the ratings for networks. At the same time, it will give the G5 an opportunity to state their case. Now who knows, maybe once in a blue moon an exceptional G5 team will get in if there's really not a good option at the P5 level to fill out that 8th spot...it could create some drama. But it won't happen often if ever. The important part is that the illusion of access will exist and that will ensure the politicos stay off the backs of administrators. Plus, all the Power schools really have to do is funnel a little cash back to the G5s. Give some of that CFP pot to the G5 as you're already doing. That's another reason we won't see a reduction in the regular season. We might, however, see a banning of FCS games because that would mean more money games for the G5 and that sort of move could grease the wheels a little bit.
As to Dodd's point about introducing another level of mediocrity, he clearly hasn't checked on anybody's bank account. This isn't about preventing mediocrity or ensuring excellence. This is about selling a product to the masses for a lot of extra cash. Now, I do believe that going beyond 8 would start to produce diminishing returns so I don't expect to ever see that happen, but 8 teams will be fervently watched by all regions of the country. That's the point. Any team that could conceivably have an argument that they could win a national title will be in. Every Power conference will have at least one representative. There will still be plenty of drama over who is left out and who gets picked. The regular season will matter just as much as it does now. Schools win and networks win.