Realignment's Sobering Numbers For Those Who Like To Create Move Scenarios
Conference/Attendance Average / Gross Total Revenue Average / WSJ Estimated Values For Product Average
1. SEC / 77,565 / $121,240,504 / $523,416,428
2. B1G / 66,162 / $108,269,417 / $415,748,643
3. B12 / 57,238 / $102,170,537 / $376,433,300
4. PAC / 50,112 / $ 89,239,736 / $253,766,417
5. ACC / 49,827 / $ 87,034,205 / $182,383,929
When Discussing Realignment Fans Ignore Statistics That Can Indicate the Value of a Team to a Conference.
The first number is the average football attendance of the conference. This number tends to indicate the impact that those schools can have when visiting your campus. That is why they are important. They aren't a deal maker, but they can be a deal breaker.
The second number is the average gross total revenue earned by a conference school. If a candidate's gross total revenue is at or above the average gross revenue for a conference it generally indicates whether or not the school being added brings enough value for consideration. But in fairness you have to handicap this number by subtracting the total TV revenue of the conference of the candidate from the total of the conference which is looking to add them.
For comparison's sake last year the SEC earned 40.1 million in TV revenue and the Big 10 earned about 43 million for all tiers, the Big 12 35 million plus their T3, the PAC roughly 29 million for all tiers, and the ACC roughly 28 million for all tiers.
The third number is the dollar amount of impact that a school brings to its surrounding markets. This might be the best factor to consider when looking at whether or not a school will pay its own way into another conference. It's also the best way to see whether or not a pair of schools add value.
To make that determination add the total impact value of the pair of schools and divide by 2. If that average is higher than the conference average for the conference they wish to join the answer is yes. If it is lower than that average then the answer is no.
When you've done this you will find that the number of schools which could add value to a particular conference is much smaller than you might think.
Candidates that add to the averages of the SEC:
SEC avgs: 77,565 / $121,240,504 / $ 525,416,428
1. Texas: 97,881 / $182,104,126 / $1,243,124,000
2. Oklahoma: 86,857 / $150,371,878 / $1,001,967,000
3. Notre Dame: 80,795 / $134,211,095 / $ 856,938,000
4. Florida St.: 76,800 / $123,344,314 / $ 385,938,000
5. Clemson: 80,970 / $ 95,800,326 / $328,411,000
No other schools add to any metric for the SEC.
The following schools might be considered for market Additions and Academics:
1. Virginia 39,929 / $100,632,895 / $ 168,534,000
2. Kansas 25,828 / $ 94,697,418 / $ 183,031,000
3. T.C.U. 45,168 / $ 93,259,382 / $ 153,631,000
4. Duke 29,895 / $ 91,971,836 / $ 64,195,000
5. West Va. 57,583 / $ 91,412,352 / $ 72,649,000
6. North Car. 50,250 / $ 90,969,518 / $ 147,179,000
7. Ok. State 53,814 / $ 90,049,297 / $ 285,293,000
8. Miami 58,572 / $ 85,615,972 / $ 254,502,000
9. Va. Tech 63,043 / $ 84,064,779 / $ 269,883,000
10. N.C.St. 57,497 / $ 80,255,029 / $ 191,813,000
You will note the relatively low impact values for Duke and West Virginia. This is a big issue where these two are concerned. It is why both Duke and West Virginia would likely have to be paired with a better addition to gain membership in the SEC, or in Duke's case either the SEC or Big 10. In fact Miami, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, and N.C. State show their strength in being someone's #2 by virtue of the economic impact they have within their states.
For the Big 10 there are only 3 schools that add to all of their metrics:
1. Texas
2. Oklahoma
3. Notre Dame
For the markets and academics compare the following to the Big 10's averages:
1. Virginia
2. North Carolina
3. Virginia Tech
4. Duke
5. N.C. State
6. Syracuse
So if you are going to propose that certain schools should be placed in any conference my suggestion is to run the numbers and see if it is doable first. In the vast majority of cases it will not be.
(This post was last modified: 01-22-2018 06:58 PM by JRsec.)
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