(07-05-2021 07:35 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  The only Big XII teams which would help the ACC in terms of revenue, in descending order of value, are:

Texas, Oklahoma - football brands

West Virginia - rivalry, content-multiplier

Baylor, TCU - Texas recruiting, ACCN carriage fees

Kansas - basketball brand (but only pays 20%, so maybe not?)

I see little to no ACC value in Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, or Iowa State. Those might be valuable to another conference, but not this one.

I don't see how WVU adds value. Zero market value, negligible impact on accn subscriptions. And then we all have to endure their knuckle dragging fans and send our teams and fans into a very unsafe and unsavory environment. No thanks.

(07-05-2021 03:25 PM)ren.hoek Wrote:  

(07-05-2021 07:35 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  The only Big XII teams which would help the ACC in terms of revenue, in descending order of value, are:

Texas, Oklahoma - football brands

West Virginia - rivalry, content-multiplier

Baylor, TCU - Texas recruiting, ACCN carriage fees

Kansas - basketball brand (but only pays 20%, so maybe not?)

I see little to no ACC value in Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, or Iowa State. Those might be valuable to another conference, but not this one.

I don't see how WVU adds value. Zero market value, negligible impact on accn subscriptions. And then we all have to endure their knuckle dragging fans and send our teams and fans into a very unsafe and unsavory environment. No thanks.

I don't believe that West Virginia will ever be admitted to the ACC, but I do think that they could add value to our two northern members and our one semi mid-western member.
As to whether those three actually add value to the ACC is another matter.

Revenue is what the ACC needs and there are only a handful of TV markets that provide that in the Big 12 or AAC. Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas Tech, WV, Iowa State and Oklahoma State in the Big 12. UCF and Houston bring the most TV money in the AAC with Cincinnati, Memphis, UCONN and Temple barely moving the meter.

(07-05-2021 04:49 PM)7thHeaven Wrote:  Revenue is what the ACC needs and there are only a handful of TV markets that provide that in the Big 12 or AAC. Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas Tech, WV, Iowa State and Oklahoma State in the Big 12. UCF and Houston bring the most TV money in the AAC with Cincinnati, Memphis, UCONN and Temple barely moving the meter.

USF is gaining more and more traction here in Southwest Florida. I have been seeing more and more license plates for USF the last few years. I havent been to Florida since January of 2020 but Im here now for a month. Surprised at how many license plates I have been seeing for USF. This is my personal observation so it could be way off as far as actual stats go.

(07-05-2021 04:49 PM)7thHeaven Wrote:  Revenue is what the ACC needs and there are only a handful of TV markets that provide that in the Big 12 or AAC. Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas Tech, WV, Iowa State and Oklahoma State in the Big 12. UCF and Houston bring the most TV money in the AAC with Cincinnati, Memphis, UCONN and Temple barely moving the meter.

There is no tv market in WV.

(07-05-2021 04:49 PM)7thHeaven Wrote:  Revenue is what the ACC needs and there are only a handful of TV markets that provide that in the Big 12 or AAC. Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas Tech, WV, Iowa State and Oklahoma State in the Big 12. UCF and Houston bring the most TV money in the AAC with Cincinnati, Memphis, UCONN and Temple barely moving the meter.

Are you getting that opinion about the value of AAC schools from ratings? I don't see how UCF or USF in a state we have 2 members bring any more TV value. And Houston is in a huge market in a huge state but Cincy is much more geographically compatible. I like Houston as the preferred add on, with the University of Texas but, not by themselves.

You are correct about the TV markets we already own. It’s easy to google the top TV markets, that’s what ESPN wants. ESPN wants the ACC network in the markets they are not already in. The East coast is already owned by the ACC and SEC and ESPN owns both. ESPN also owns the Big 12 but never deducted the money from the schools that left and none of the AAC schools could make up the difference so they never expanded. That’s also why the Big 12s contract ends in 2025. Every conference has extended their contracts except the Big 12 because they know it’s not going to increase. Oklahoma has already flirted with the SEC and has made it known they are leaving if no schools are added and the money doesn’t increase. There are not huge TV markets in the Midwest other than Texas and Oklahoma but adding some of those schools to the ACC or SEC would increase viewership in those markets and make those schools worth more for ESPN. It will be interesting to see if ESPN will hold the Big 12 together or split them up like they did the Big East.

(07-04-2021 04:39 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Sorry for another random idea. Hopefully you all don’t mind.

I do think this scenario is a little more plausible, though.

First, here is a list of assumptions.

1. OU wants to leave the Big 12. Preferably the BIG but the SEC is still a better alternative than the Big 12.
2. But OU can’t leave Ok State in the crippled Big 12.
3. The BIG does not want OK State.
4. UT doesn’t want to leave the Big 12 unless some core schools leave including OU. In that case, UT prefers the SEC over the BIG or the Pac 12 (and the ACC just to be clear).
5. The ESPN wants to move OU and UT to the SEC and is willing to pay. The ESPN also wants to weaken the Big 12 for a less competition.
6. The SEC doesn’t want to expand beyond 16.
7. The ACC doesn’t necessarily want to expand but it wants to reopen the current media contract and increase the revenue.

With the above assumptions, the best offer that the ESPN can make is following:

1. Let the SEC make an offer to OU. Tell OU that if accepted, the ACC will invite OK State.
2. Knowing Ok State will be in good hands, OU accepts the SEC’s offer.
3. Let the ACC invite OK State (and Texas Tech or TCU). This obviously involves reopening the media contract and raising the payout to the ACC.
4. With OU gone, OK State (and another Texas school) accepts the ACC’s offer. OU and OK State would become another SEC/ACC rivalry game.
5. Checkmated, UT would consider its options. The best option at that point would be joining the SEC. A new TV deal for the SEC would be very high.

It’s absolutely hypothetical but would/should the ACC accept this deal?

In what universe would OK State and Texas Tech want to join the ACC? And why would ESPN be willing to pay the 14 ACC schools more to take them? Without a big boost in pay (and it would actually probably result in a pay cut for the ACC), why would the ACC want them?

You can't just add one or two schools from so far out of your region and make it work across the spectrum of sports. If schools from the B12 want to be more closely associated with eastern schools, they would need to come as a pack.

Something that could work for the ACC financially would be something closer to a merger of the two leagues. Whether it would work on any other level is debatable.

Let's say the ACC schools (and ESPN) are willing to go large. They could add a seven team western wing with the four Texas schools, the two Oklahoma schools and Kansas. Then you would have three divisions of 7 teams each, and would have imported 90% of the value of the Big 12 and its biggest basketball brand. This doesn't work for OU and UT in a world with only four teams in the CFP, but maybe it does if we go to 12, which now seems likely.

None of this can happen until the pay for play issue is settled, and it probably won't happen even then. But it's more likely than OSU and Texas Tech to the ACC ever.

Thank you all for the comments.

* Let’s just consider this scenario from the ESPN’s perspecitve. The ESPN controls two conferences: the ACC and the SEC. Both of these conferences have 14 football members.

* If the ESPN wants to move UT and OU and also cripple/kill the Big 12, its best play would be to steal four teams from the Big 12 and split them into two conferences that the ESPN controls.

* I agree that only Texas and maybe OU would generate high revenue and viewership. But in this scenario the value is there for other schools if the ESPN pays for them. From the ESPN’s pespective this is similar to a payment for tag alongs in a sense that you need to pay for tag alongs to catch the big fish. It’s just that under this scenario, tag alongs are going to the ACC and the big fish are going to the SEC instead of all four schools joining one conference.

* WVU won’t work from the ESPN’s perspecitve because taking WVU won’t hurt the Big 12 much. And the ACC may not want to accept WVU under any condition.

* I understand OK State is a bridge too far for the ACC. If OU is not tied to OK State, the ACC may have a better choice. What about TCU and/or Kansas? Are they more compatible with the ACC?

(07-06-2021 07:47 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(07-04-2021 04:39 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Sorry for another random idea. Hopefully you all don’t mind.

I do think this scenario is a little more plausible, though.

First, here is a list of assumptions.

1. OU wants to leave the Big 12. Preferably the BIG but the SEC is still a better alternative than the Big 12.
2. But OU can’t leave Ok State in the crippled Big 12.
3. The BIG does not want OK State.
4. UT doesn’t want to leave the Big 12 unless some core schools leave including OU. In that case, UT prefers the SEC over the BIG or the Pac 12 (and the ACC just to be clear).
5. The ESPN wants to move OU and UT to the SEC and is willing to pay. The ESPN also wants to weaken the Big 12 for a less competition.
6. The SEC doesn’t want to expand beyond 16.
7. The ACC doesn’t necessarily want to expand but it wants to reopen the current media contract and increase the revenue.

With the above assumptions, the best offer that the ESPN can make is following:

1. Let the SEC make an offer to OU. Tell OU that if accepted, the ACC will invite OK State.
2. Knowing Ok State will be in good hands, OU accepts the SEC’s offer.
3. Let the ACC invite OK State (and Texas Tech or TCU). This obviously involves reopening the media contract and raising the payout to the ACC.
4. With OU gone, OK State (and another Texas school) accepts the ACC’s offer. OU and OK State would become another SEC/ACC rivalry game.
5. Checkmated, UT would consider its options. The best option at that point would be joining the SEC. A new TV deal for the SEC would be very high.

It’s absolutely hypothetical but would/should the ACC accept this deal?

In what universe would OK State and Texas Tech want to join the ACC? And why would ESPN be willing to pay the 14 ACC schools more to take them? Without a big boost in pay (and it would actually probably result in a pay cut for the ACC), why would the ACC want them?

In the same universe where WVU left the Big East for the Big 12. Once OU is out (and UT is rumored to consider its options), I think the Big 12 would become very unstable. The media payment for the weakened Big 12 would be certainly lower than the upgraded ACC payment.

For your other questions, please see my previous posting. I am not saying this is going to happen, but under many assumptions this may be a possibility.

(07-06-2021 08:34 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  Thank you all for the comments.

* Let’s just consider this scenario from the ESPN’s perspecitve. The ESPN controls two conferences: the ACC and the SEC. Both of these conferences have 14 football members.

* If the ESPN wants to move UT and OU and also cripple/kill the Big 12, its best play would be to steal four teams from the Big 12 and split them into two conferences that the ESPN controls.

* I agree that only Texas and maybe OU would generate high revenue and viewership. But in this scenario the value is there for other schools if the ESPN pays for them. From the ESPN’s pespective this is similar to a payment for tag alongs in a sense that you need to pay for tag alongs to catch the big fish. It’s just that under this scenario, tag alongs are going to the ACC and the big fish are going to the SEC instead of all four schools joining one conference.

* WVU won’t work from the ESPN’s perspecitve because taking WVU won’t hurt the Big 12 much. And the ACC may not want to accept WVU under any condition.

* I understand OK State is a bridge too far for the ACC. If OU is not tied to OK State, the ACC may have a better choice. What about TCU and/or Kansas? Are they more compatible with the ACC?

ESPN doesn’t control the two conferences, nor their members. ESPN controls the media rights…between 20% and 33% of athletic department revenues for SEC and ACC schools. By providing more revenue, ESPN can influence decisions…but each school also has to consider their overall interests.

In terms of media value, Texas and Oklahoma are way above other B12 schools. Kansas has strong media value for basketball. ESPN would interested in moving those schools into the SEC and/or ACC. If Texas and OU are willing to jettison their B12 mates, then the best arrangement would be…

SW Division - UT, TTU, OU, KU, TA&M, Ark, Mizzou and Vandy
SC Division - LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, Bama, Auburn, Tenn, UK and Louisville
SE Division - UF, FSU, UGa, GT, Clemson, USC, NC State and Wake
E Division - UNC, Duke, UVa, VT, Pitt, Cuse, BC and Miami

(07-06-2021 01:27 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(07-06-2021 08:34 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  Thank you all for the comments.

* Let’s just consider this scenario from the ESPN’s perspecitve. The ESPN controls two conferences: the ACC and the SEC. Both of these conferences have 14 football members.

* If the ESPN wants to move UT and OU and also cripple/kill the Big 12, its best play would be to steal four teams from the Big 12 and split them into two conferences that the ESPN controls.

* I agree that only Texas and maybe OU would generate high revenue and viewership. But in this scenario the value is there for other schools if the ESPN pays for them. From the ESPN’s pespective this is similar to a payment for tag alongs in a sense that you need to pay for tag alongs to catch the big fish. It’s just that under this scenario, tag alongs are going to the ACC and the big fish are going to the SEC instead of all four schools joining one conference.

* WVU won’t work from the ESPN’s perspecitve because taking WVU won’t hurt the Big 12 much. And the ACC may not want to accept WVU under any condition.

* I understand OK State is a bridge too far for the ACC. If OU is not tied to OK State, the ACC may have a better choice. What about TCU and/or Kansas? Are they more compatible with the ACC?

ESPN doesn’t control the two conferences, nor their members. ESPN controls the media rights…between 20% and 33% of athletic department revenues for SEC and ACC schools. By providing more revenue, ESPN can influence decisions…but each school also has to consider their overall interests.

In terms of media value, Texas and Oklahoma are way above other B12 schools. Kansas has strong media value for basketball. ESPN would interested in moving those schools into the SEC and/or ACC. If Texas and OU are willing to jettison their B12 mates, then the best arrangement would be…

SW Division - UT, TTU, OU, KU, TA&M, Ark, Mizzou and Vandy
SC Division - LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, Bama, Auburn, Tenn, UK and Louisville
SE Division - UF, FSU, UGa, GT, Clemson, USC, NC State and Wake
E Division - UNC, Duke, UVa, VT, Pitt, Cuse, BC and Miami

I think that eventually something like this does emerge. But when it does it would be best to approach it with more of an open mind where triage is concerned. You need to look at the bottom of each conference and subtract their media revenue total from their gross revenue totals to ascertain which schools have the best capability to fund required programs.

For example Vanderbilt takes in 4 million more than Wake, but when adjusted for conference media difference Wake is the better funded athletically. However you leave out TCU which blows both of those away and is located in a metroplex of 11 million. Like it or not Baylor is also better funded and Oklahoma State's alumni in DFW and their solid viewing numbers there are ignored and this thread dismissed them as only having a partial draw from a state of 4 million.

Second you'll need to look at attendance as it indicates physical support. Nobody expects these schools to have 75,000 in attendance but 40k as opposed to 27k is significant.

So here in this lineup we have Vanderbilt, Wake, and perhaps even B.C. that might be more profitably replaced by schools flushed with the B12 schools not named Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. But the 32 best, slightly adjusted for rivals and geographical fit would make a fine half of a 2 League upper tier and when you have 56 to 64 participants.

But nobody in my opinion will be cut, but there will be those who choose to drop out. I think eliminating 2 of 3 sets of conference overhead and commercial properties is a prudent move as well and that means 2 full school shares of revenue recovered and overhead split by a lot more schools. It is efficient to move to a setup like this one.

(07-06-2021 08:41 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(07-06-2021 07:47 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(07-04-2021 04:39 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Sorry for another random idea. Hopefully you all don’t mind.

I do think this scenario is a little more plausible, though.

First, here is a list of assumptions.

1. OU wants to leave the Big 12. Preferably the BIG but the SEC is still a better alternative than the Big 12.
2. But OU can’t leave Ok State in the crippled Big 12.
3. The BIG does not want OK State.
4. UT doesn’t want to leave the Big 12 unless some core schools leave including OU. In that case, UT prefers the SEC over the BIG or the Pac 12 (and the ACC just to be clear).
5. The ESPN wants to move OU and UT to the SEC and is willing to pay. The ESPN also wants to weaken the Big 12 for a less competition.
6. The SEC doesn’t want to expand beyond 16.
7. The ACC doesn’t necessarily want to expand but it wants to reopen the current media contract and increase the revenue.

With the above assumptions, the best offer that the ESPN can make is following:

1. Let the SEC make an offer to OU. Tell OU that if accepted, the ACC will invite OK State.
2. Knowing Ok State will be in good hands, OU accepts the SEC’s offer.
3. Let the ACC invite OK State (and Texas Tech or TCU). This obviously involves reopening the media contract and raising the payout to the ACC.
4. With OU gone, OK State (and another Texas school) accepts the ACC’s offer. OU and OK State would become another SEC/ACC rivalry game.
5. Checkmated, UT would consider its options. The best option at that point would be joining the SEC. A new TV deal for the SEC would be very high.

It’s absolutely hypothetical but would/should the ACC accept this deal?

In what universe would OK State and Texas Tech want to join the ACC? And why would ESPN be willing to pay the 14 ACC schools more to take them? Without a big boost in pay (and it would actually probably result in a pay cut for the ACC), why would the ACC want them?

In the same universe where WVU left the Big East for the Big 12. Once OU is out (and UT is rumored to consider its options), I think the Big 12 would become very unstable. The media payment for the weakened Big 12 would be certainly lower than the upgraded ACC payment.

For your other questions, please see my previous posting. I am not saying this is going to happen, but under many assumptions this may be a possibility.

That's not the same universe at all. The Big East was already on its deathbed, and WVU had no other choices. The Big 12 was willing to take them.

Even without UT and OU the conference would survive, if only because there are no more pieces anybody would want to poach. Yes, the B12 payments at that point would be lower than the ACC payouts, but if a conference doesn't want you it doesn't matter how much you want them. At least Tech and OK State would be wanted by the Big 12.

(07-05-2021 12:24 PM)Statefan Wrote:  People, let me tell you some things about West Virginia.

1. They have a demographic problem in their state with no fix in sight. They are losing population fast relative to other states.
2. Most of their students at WVa come from out of state. Think about that for a moment. Can you imagine what FSU, Clemson, NC State, VT, UVa, Pitt, or UNC would look like if the bulk students came from other states. This is a demographic time bomb in the alumni base.
3. The State of West Virginia toy with ending income taxes this year - that money funds education in West Va.
4. While their fans will travel to watch them, the overall West Virginia diaspora is not concentrated in any one area to move the ACC network needle with the exception of Western MD, and Eastern Ohio.
5. The ACC is not adding universities that have governance issues, funding issues, political issues, and population issues.
6. All of this is before UVa, Duke, WF, and GT all rise up again and say Hell No to West Va. While Maryland was always their top "enemy" regarding the ACC, UVa's opposition is almost as fierce.
7. Culturally, West Virginia is a better fit for the SEC. From a geographic standpoint, the SEC gains from adding West Va., are much higher than the ACC's as West Va. and the SEC overlap only at the Eastern Ky boarder. The ACC overlap includes both panhandles and penetrates deep into the interior.
8. If you research Nielson DMA maps, you see that the addition of West Virginia adds about 300K tv families to the ACC footprint. That's the Clarksburg DMA and part of the Charleston/Huntington DMA, and part of the Wheeling/Steubenville DMA. By comparison just the Raleigh Durham DMA has 1,000,000 TV families. Pittsburg has the same. If WVa was located in Athens, Ohio, they would already be in the ACC.
9. It's a disservice to their fans to talk about this like they have a chance because to have a chance means profound changes in the ACC to the point that the ACC is no longer the ACC.
10. West Virginia as a state is dying a slow death. I would give most of it to Ohio and part of it back to Va or MD.

I've never understood the rationale behind WVU's mission. It does nothing to enhance opportunity in the state. Many of its students come from out of state and leave as soon as they get kicked out or graduate. Even the few West Virginia kids who graduate leave the state as soon as they can. The rest of West Virginia's kids don't aspire to attend college. Instead, they're waiting for King Coal to come back and, in the interim, are perfectly content to play with opioids down there on the east bank of the Big Sandy River's Tug Fork.

That said, if the ACC wants a presence in populous Ohio, there's no need to envision an if-only-WVU-were-in-Athens scenario or to hope that Ohio and other functional states annex parts of West Virginia. Just add the University of Cincinnati.

The more time passes, the more I lean towards Cincinnati over WVU.

(07-06-2021 04:30 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  The more time passes, the more I lean towards Cincinnati over WVU.

That call was actually made about 10 years ago by Woad.

(07-06-2021 02:16 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(07-06-2021 08:41 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(07-06-2021 07:47 AM)ken d Wrote:  [quote='random asian guy' pid='17489485' dateline='1625434790']


In what universe would OK State and Texas Tech want to join the ACC? And why would ESPN be willing to pay the 14 ACC schools more to take them? Without a big boost in pay (and it would actually probably result in a pay cut for the ACC), why would the ACC want them?

In the same universe where WVU left the Big East for the Big 12. Once OU is out (and UT is rumored to consider its options), I think the Big 12 would become very unstable. The media payment for the weakened Big 12 would be certainly lower than the upgraded ACC payment.

For your other questions, please see my previous posting. I am not saying this is going to happen, but under many assumptions this may be a possibility.

That's not the same universe at all. The Big East was already on its deathbed, and WVU had no other choices. The Big 12 was willing to take them.

Even without UT and OU the conference would survive, if only because there are no more pieces anybody would want to poach. Yes, the B12 payments at that point would be lower than the ACC payouts, but if a conference doesn't want you it doesn't matter how much you want them. At least Tech and OK State would be wanted by the Big 12.

Then what about the universe where BC left the Big East to join 10 southern schools plus UMCP? Or TCU accepting an invitation to the Big East? Actually some of Big 12 schools were in talk with the Big East after the news of potential departure of five schools including UT and OU to the Pac 10 if I remember correctly.

Speaking of the Big East, can we revisit its history? Maybe we can learn something from the history.

1. The Big East was fine before the first raid and ND was happy in the Big East.

2. Even after the first raid, ND stayed. The Big East added a few teams.

3. After the second raid, ND decided to move. The Big East football died.

Now what about the Big 12?

1. The Big 12 was fine before the first raid and UT was happy in the Big 12.

2. Even after the first raid, UT stayed. The Big 12 added a few teams.

3. I don’t know if the second raid is coming. What we know is that their GOR has not been extended. The Big 12 approached the ESPN for the media deal but the ESPN didn’t want to discuss at this point. Yes the future of college football is uncertain. But the uncertainty goes both ways. Why did the Big 12 approach?

As for your last paragraph, one of the assumptions here is that UT won’t leave the Big 12 if OU is the only one defecting the Big 12 but UT would give up on the Big 12 if a few core schools including OU leave. Sorry if it was not clear.

(07-06-2021 04:30 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  The more time passes, the more I lean towards Cincinnati over WVU.

You guys are a little slow, but eventually you get it.

Pardon me but I’ve waited nearly a decade to post this.

Regardless of what The Dude says… “West Virginia simply doesn’t move the needle”….

Give me Cincinnati….

Maybe WVU can grab the Bearcats spot in The American…