(07-21-2021 09:30 PM)bearcat29 Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 08:57 PM)RaplhTheGreetest! Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 08:52 PM)Joprior23 Wrote:  So. If Texas and OU are the only ones to leave. I think you’ll see 2 or 4 added. Out of this group below

BYU
Houston
Cincy
UCF
Memphis
SMU

If the rumors are true that the PAC-12 swoops in and takes Tech, ISU, KSU, and Okie State, then I think you’ll see all 6 of those schools added above. Plus Boise. And maybe USF/Temple.

No way pac 12 takes Texas tech

Pac needs a presence in Texas for the network. Leftovers are all religious schools, which leaves TT. That is why they get picked up.

Houston would be a better choice than Tech

The AAC basically has the same strength as the Big XII now. I'm not sure how all of this will work out, but nothing seems clear-cut to me.

(07-22-2021 12:58 PM)pesik Wrote:  Also 100% chance the big 12 raids us not the other way around, even if the big 12 had 4 members left..,

The last FOUR "Big 12" members would most likely be two Texas schools (TCU, BU), a Kansas school (KSU), and likely a West Virginia school (WVU).

I'm not buying Waco, Morgantown, Manhattan, and Fort Worth have the VALUE (without being able to sell games to networks against UT/OU) to poach the AAC (Dallas, Houston, Orlando, Tampa, Philadelphia, Memphis, N.O., etc) away from ESPN.

ESPN is the whale in the room and they decide where the value is.

If ESPN wants Morgantown, Waco, etc, they will add them to the conference they have under contract. (the American)

It doesn't make good business sense the other way around.

(07-22-2021 01:05 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  The AAC basically has the same strength as the Big XII now. I'm not sure how all of this will work out, but nothing seems clear-cut to me.

EXACTLY.

A lot of people don't have their business suits on.

ESPN is locked at the hip with the AAC. They decide where the value is (and its most likely with the contracts they own).

It appears the powers that be may be arranging 16 team conferences as the new norm. If that is truly the case, I can see the ACC taking UC and Notre Dame to move to 16. I believe Notre Dame will finally move to a conference do in large part to NIL. Their players can garner far more endorsements in the SEC then they can as Independent.

So I see;

SEC adds; Texas and OU.

ACC adds; UC and Notre Dame.

B1G adds; Kansas and ISU.

Pac adds; Texas Tech, TCU, BYU and Colorado St.

The Big XII with only "Baylor, OSU, KSU and W.Va." left add the entire ACC except for Wichita (Blocked by KASU) and Tulsa (Blocked by OSU). They will then have to decide if they are going to 14 or 16 teams. The will have to add 1 to 3 more schools to get there.

(07-22-2021 01:07 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 12:58 PM)pesik Wrote:  Also 100% chance the big 12 raids us not the other way around, even if the big 12 had 4 members left..,

The last FOUR "Big 12" members would most likely be two Texas schools (TCU, BU), a Kansas school (KSU), and likely a West Virginia school (WVU).

I'm not buying Waco, Morgantown, Manhattan, and Fort Worth have the VALUE (without being able to sell games to networks against UT/OU) to poach the AAC (Dallas, Houston, Orlando, Tampa, Philadelphia, Memphis, N.O., etc) away from ESPN.

ESPN is the whale in the room and they decide where the value is.

If ESPN wants Morgantown, Waco, etc, they will add them to the conference they have under contract. (the American)

It doesn't make good business sense the other way around.

their payout is 35+ mill
our payout is 6+ mill

they have access bowl contract and contract with other major bowls..and the big12/sec challenge
they are already contractually in the autonomous 5, the aac isnt

its pretty clear cut... they are raiding us not the other way around.. this is a 100% CERTAINTY!!!! It is completely naive to think otherwise

it has nothing to do with the teams, it has 100% every to do with the contracts already in place

you guys are acting like it 2 brand new leagues and all contracts in all college football start fresh and its a new conract for everything

(07-22-2021 01:12 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  It appears the powers that be may be arranging 16 team conferences as the new norm. If that is truly the case, I can see the ACC taking UC and Notre Dame to move to 16. I believe Notre Dame will finally move to a conference do in large part to NIL. They can garner far more endorsements in the SEC then they can as Independent.

So I see;

SEC adds; Texas and OU.

ACC adds; UC and Notre Dame.

B1G adds; Kansas and ISU.

Pac adds; Texas Tech, TCU, BYU and Colorado St.

The Big XII with only "Baylor, OSU, KSU and W.Va." left add the entire ACC except for Wichita (Blocked by KASU) and Tulsa (Blocked by OSU). They will then have to decide if they are going to 14 or 16 teams. The will have to add 1 to 3 more schools to get there.

I disagree here. The powers that be aren't pushing for 16 teams. The SEC is THE power, and they expanded because it was good for them. They're the only power conference left. In terms of TV deals, NIL, future of streaming, etc. they have all the power now. They're going to lock up 80% of the Top 100 recruits.

This is an absolutely massive game changer.

The other conferences cannot compete with the SEC. In some instances, contraction may ultimately be more valuable on a per-team basis. Consolidation across conferences is another strong likelihood.

It's not P4. It's P1 + 1 other future super conference.

(07-22-2021 01:04 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 01:00 PM)Joprior23 Wrote:  Big 12 can’t just backfill with two. Would make zero sense.

it would make the most sense... why divide the pie more than necerssary... in a playoff system than gives autobids to champions..

the less amount of memebers the higher the chance you have at the playoffs..imo they back fill with 2 if texas and oklahoma leave....then they wait it out, the playoff system is built in a way to elevate some members of the g5...after some random aac/mwc team gets into the playoffs a few times and builds a brand theyll take the 10-12 years down the line

Because we are going the super conference route. You lose OU/Texas and try to make up that loss with just 2 of Cincy, UCF, Memphis, Houston, BYU.

And think about the markets in the Big 12 now. Waco, Lubbock, wherever West Virginia is located.

Eyeballs will be a big deal.

Houston, Cincy, UCF, and BYU would be ideal.

Bring along Memphis and SMU, if you want.

(07-22-2021 01:21 PM)Joprior23 Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 01:04 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 01:00 PM)Joprior23 Wrote:  Big 12 can’t just backfill with two. Would make zero sense.

it would make the most sense... why divide the pie more than necerssary... in a playoff system than gives autobids to champions..

the less amount of memebers the higher the chance you have at the playoffs..imo they back fill with 2 if texas and oklahoma leave....then they wait it out, the playoff system is built in a way to elevate some members of the g5...after some random aac/mwc team gets into the playoffs a few times and builds a brand theyll take the 10-12 years down the line

Because we are going the super conference route. You lose OU/Texas and try to make up that loss with just 2 of Cincy, UCF, Memphis, Houston, BYU.

And think about the markets in the Big 12 now. Waco, Lubbock, wherever West Virginia is located.

Eyeballs will be a big deal.

Houston, Cincy, UCF, and BYU would be ideal.

Bring along Memphis and SMU, if you want.

but theres absolutely no value in super conferences what so ever from a financial stand point...or a sports standpoint either

pezman (our AD) talked about this in regard to the aac, that theres no longer any value in expansion with the new playoff system

the difference between 2 additions and 4 will be insignificant in contract negotiations.. but it divides the pot and adds other teams to hurdle in path to the playoffs where you need only to be conference champion

reality check that many here wont agree with is that non of us draw the kind of eyeballs needed to justify that kind of expansion

(07-22-2021 01:31 PM)pesik Wrote:  but theres absolutely no value in super conferences what so ever from a financial stand point...or a sports standpoint either

pezman (our AD) talked about this in regard to the aac, that theres no longer an value in expansion with the new playoff system

the difference between 2 additions and 4 will be insignificant in contract negotiaitons..but it divides the pot and adds other teams to hurdle in path to the playoffs where you need only to be conference champion

reality check that many here wont agree with is that non of us draw the kind of eyeballs needed to justify that kind of expansion

There's value in superconferences, just not with these schools. The SEC is now a super conference, and it's going to make a ton of sense.

The big cascading issue for the AAC is that another super conference will emerge in a few years if the SEC starts taking all recruits, starts dominating TV revenue, etc. If we see consolidation of the P5 down from 65 schools to something like 24-32 teams spread across the SEC + this new super conference, there will be a ton of parity across the G5. The AAC's relative position in that new G5 will be higher than at any time since the Big East / BCS era.

(07-22-2021 01:12 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  It appears the powers that be may be arranging 16 team conferences as the new norm. If that is truly the case, I can see the ACC taking UC and Notre Dame to move to 16. I believe Notre Dame will finally move to a conference do in large part to NIL. Their players can garner far more endorsements in the SEC then they can as Independent.

So I see;

SEC adds; Texas and OU.

ACC adds; UC and Notre Dame.

B1G adds; Kansas and ISU.

Pac adds; Texas Tech, TCU, BYU and Colorado St.

The Big XII with only "Baylor, OSU, KSU and W.Va." left add the entire ACC except for Wichita (Blocked by KASU) and Tulsa (Blocked by OSU). They will then have to decide if they are going to 14 or 16 teams. The will have to add 1 to 3 more schools to get there.

I'm not sure I see what the B1G gets by adding ISU with Iowa already in the fold. I'll believe Notre Dame joining a conference when I see it and I don't see the PAC adding TCU or BYU.

(07-22-2021 01:15 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 01:12 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  It appears the powers that be may be arranging 16 team conferences as the new norm. If that is truly the case, I can see the ACC taking UC and Notre Dame to move to 16. I believe Notre Dame will finally move to a conference do in large part to NIL. They can garner far more endorsements in the SEC then they can as Independent.

So I see;

SEC adds; Texas and OU.

ACC adds; UC and Notre Dame.

B1G adds; Kansas and ISU.

Pac adds; Texas Tech, TCU, BYU and Colorado St.

The Big XII with only "Baylor, OSU, KSU and W.Va." left add the entire ACC except for Wichita (Blocked by KASU) and Tulsa (Blocked by OSU). They will then have to decide if they are going to 14 or 16 teams. The will have to add 1 to 3 more schools to get there.

I disagree here. The powers that be aren't pushing for 16 teams. The SEC is THE power, and they expanded because it was good for them. They're the only power conference left. In terms of TV deals, NIL, future of streaming, etc. they have all the power now. They're going to lock up 80% of the Top 100 recruits.

This is an absolutely massive game changer.

The other conferences cannot compete with the SEC. In some instances, contraction may ultimately be more valuable on a per-team basis. Consolidation across conferences is another strong likelihood.

It's not P4. It's P1 + 1 other future super conference.

You're not wrong - just that the powerhouses can overplay their hand and make CFB a niche/regional sport where if you're not connected to 10-12 programs then you're not spending real money.

(07-22-2021 01:37 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  You're not wrong - just that the powerhouses can overplay their hand and make CFB a niche/regional sport where if you're not connected to 10-12 programs then you're not spending real money.

Totally. It's in the same line as "tragedy of the commons". Hyper consolidation could ultimately kill the sport, but it's not in any 1 team's interest to worry about that, they instead need to focus on the here and now, and if they're leaving $20m+ on the table annually, they need to make that their priority. Meanwhile, K State fans might stop watching CFB entirely, and over time, the pie will shrink for everyone.

(07-22-2021 01:37 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 01:31 PM)pesik Wrote:  but theres absolutely no value in super conferences what so ever from a financial stand point...or a sports standpoint either

pezman (our AD) talked about this in regard to the aac, that theres no longer an value in expansion with the new playoff system

the difference between 2 additions and 4 will be insignificant in contract negotiaitons..but it divides the pot and adds other teams to hurdle in path to the playoffs where you need only to be conference champion

reality check that many here wont agree with is that non of us draw the kind of eyeballs needed to justify that kind of expansion

There's value in superconferences, just not with these schools. The SEC is now a super conference, and it's going to make a ton of sense.

The big cascading issue for the AAC is that another super conference will emerge in a few years if the SEC starts taking all recruits, starts dominating TV revenue, etc. If we see consolidation of the P5 down from 65 schools to something like 24-32 teams spread across the SEC + this new super conference, there will be a ton of parity across the G5. The AAC's relative position in that new G5 will be higher than at any time since the Big East / BCS era.

you missed my point.... the SEC's value isnt a superconference.. its value is having tons of elite teams
the value isnt the superconference (aspect of having large amount of members).. the value is the members (they have a ton of the whose who of college football)..

a few years ago "superconference" had value- convering as much land and people as possible..and gain value through subscribers/cable bubble (that bubble has burst)..and percieved conference strength was paramount competing to getting into a 2 or 4 team playoff....now with a 12 team playoff, you just need to be the percieved strongest within your conference

dont agree with your super conference theory at all

If Cincy lands in either the ACC or even a watered-down Big 12 with a bunch of AAC brethren after everything shakes out, I will be ecstatic.

One thing to me is clear, we are moving slowly towards 4 power conferences with 16 teams each. A lot of schools are gonna get left behind so if Cincy ends up in the Big 12 the celebration will probably only last for a couple of years or so.

(07-22-2021 01:46 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 01:37 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 01:31 PM)pesik Wrote:  but theres absolutely no value in super conferences what so ever from a financial stand point...or a sports standpoint either

pezman (our AD) talked about this in regard to the aac, that theres no longer an value in expansion with the new playoff system

the difference between 2 additions and 4 will be insignificant in contract negotiaitons..but it divides the pot and adds other teams to hurdle in path to the playoffs where you need only to be conference champion

reality check that many here wont agree with is that non of us draw the kind of eyeballs needed to justify that kind of expansion

There's value in superconferences, just not with these schools. The SEC is now a super conference, and it's going to make a ton of sense.

The big cascading issue for the AAC is that another super conference will emerge in a few years if the SEC starts taking all recruits, starts dominating TV revenue, etc. If we see consolidation of the P5 down from 65 schools to something like 24-32 teams spread across the SEC + this new super conference, there will be a ton of parity across the G5. The AAC's relative position in that new G5 will be higher than at any time since the Big East / BCS era.

you missed my point.... the SEC's value isnt a superconference.. its value is having tons of elite teams
the value isnt the superconference (aspect of having large amount of members).. the value is the members (they have a ton of the whose who of college football)..

a few years ago "superconference" had value- convering as much land and people as possible..and gain value though subscribers/cable bubble (that bubble has burst)..and percieved conference strength was paramount competing to getting into a 2 or 4 team playoff....now with a 12 team playoff, you just need to be the percieved strongest within your conference

dont agree with your super conference theory at all

If the SEC can outearn the B1G by $20m+ annually, kings like Ohio St WILL radically change their conference affiliation to shore up that difference. That's where we might see crazy conference consolidation among the B1G, ACC, and Pac-12. The top brands from each will probably have to come together to remain competitive.

I agree with you that it's all about brands, that's why the Top 16 schools outside the SEC may try to come together. In practice, this will mean the P5 shrinks from 65 down to 32 or fewer schools.

(07-22-2021 12:42 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 12:23 PM)Ramblin Wreck Wrote:  Houston will always be considered a step child by the other Texas schools.

You're saying that Houston is considered a stepchild by Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech (the only Texas schools remaining in the Big XII w/ both the Horns and Aggies gone)? That's kind of absurd, given that Houston is slightly more selective than Texas (and the city of Houston is a helluva lot more enticing than Lubbock), and both Baylor and TCU are private schools with a fraction of the alumni base of Houston.

I mean, I obviously don't have a horse in the race, but that's lunacy.

USFFan

Agree. Houston is in a good spot to move to B12. Location, location, location.

(07-22-2021 01:50 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 01:46 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 01:37 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 01:31 PM)pesik Wrote:  but theres absolutely no value in super conferences what so ever from a financial stand point...or a sports standpoint either

pezman (our AD) talked about this in regard to the aac, that theres no longer an value in expansion with the new playoff system

the difference between 2 additions and 4 will be insignificant in contract negotiaitons..but it divides the pot and adds other teams to hurdle in path to the playoffs where you need only to be conference champion

reality check that many here wont agree with is that non of us draw the kind of eyeballs needed to justify that kind of expansion

There's value in superconferences, just not with these schools. The SEC is now a super conference, and it's going to make a ton of sense.

The big cascading issue for the AAC is that another super conference will emerge in a few years if the SEC starts taking all recruits, starts dominating TV revenue, etc. If we see consolidation of the P5 down from 65 schools to something like 24-32 teams spread across the SEC + this new super conference, there will be a ton of parity across the G5. The AAC's relative position in that new G5 will be higher than at any time since the Big East / BCS era.

you missed my point.... the SEC's value isnt a superconference.. its value is having tons of elite teams
the value isnt the superconference (aspect of having large amount of members).. the value is the members (they have a ton of the whose who of college football)..

a few years ago "superconference" had value- convering as much land and people as possible..and gain value though subscribers/cable bubble (that bubble has burst)..and percieved conference strength was paramount competing to getting into a 2 or 4 team playoff....now with a 12 team playoff, you just need to be the percieved strongest within your conference

dont agree with your super conference theory at all

If the SEC can outearn the B1G by $20m+ annually, kings like Ohio St WILL radically change their conference affiliation to shore up that difference. That's where we might see crazy conference consolidation among the B1G, ACC, and Pac-12. The top brands from each will probably have to come together to remain competitive.

I agree with you that it's all about brands, that's why the Top 16 schools outside the SEC may try to come together. In practice, this will mean the P5 shrinks from 65 down to 32 or fewer schools.

Question is GOR's. The sentiment will be there but the timetable may be delayed due to contracts they can't get around.

(07-22-2021 02:03 PM)1845 Bear Wrote:  Question is GOR's. The sentiment will be there but the timetable may be delayed due to contracts they can't get around.

Yup. Not everything will happen tomorrow or the next day. This'll all take years to develop. Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC is more than a decade in the making.

(07-22-2021 01:12 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  It appears the powers that be may be arranging 16 team conferences as the new norm. If that is truly the case, I can see the ACC taking UC and Notre Dame to move to 16. I believe Notre Dame will finally move to a conference do in large part to NIL. Their players can garner far more endorsements in the SEC then they can as Independent.

So I see;

SEC adds; Texas and OU.

ACC adds; UC and Notre Dame.

B1G adds; Kansas and ISU.

Pac adds; Texas Tech, TCU, BYU and Colorado St.

The Big XII with only "Baylor, OSU, KSU and W.Va." left add the entire ACC except for Wichita (Blocked by KASU) and Tulsa (Blocked by OSU). They will then have to decide if they are going to 14 or 16 teams. The will have to add 1 to 3 more schools to get there.

The obvious problem with your 'what if' is BYU to the PAC. While it might seem logical, the PAC publicly balked at the idea of adding Baylor in their last expansion attempt due to their being an incompatible religious school & you think they'd be ok with BYU? That leaves OKST & KU as the most valuable remaining B12 properties which might have some interest from either the PAC or B1G.