(08-06-2021 01:44 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 12:29 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 12:04 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 11:18 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  So basically, even the existing ACC schools aren’t worth $77 million/ year. Not even Notre Dame is worth $77 million/ year or even $42 million

The main argument is that the synergy of ND playing everyone on an ACC schedule could be worth $77 million per year. I can see that being the case (along with looking at it long-term that it would lead to exponential increases in value in future TV contracts). It's also the value that taking a school as valuable as ND off the table and making sure that they don't go to the Big Ten is critically important for the long-term prognosis of the ACC.

Of course, we're talking about a true elite level school like ND (or the UT/OU combo for the SEC). It shows how hard it is for anyone lower than that elite level to make that type of impact at this point with how large conferences are and the money that they're already making.

I estimated the value of the 3 tiers of games, and here's what I came up with:

T1: $13M/game
T2: $4M/game
T3: $1M/game

* my reasoning can be found here: https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2021/...worth.html

Anyway, with those estimates, you get valuations like this for TV:

If all 7 home games are T1, you're worth 7 * $13M = $91M/year (the max)
If those are all T2 games, you're worth 7 * $4M = $28M/year
If all of your games are T3, you're only worth $7M/year

Of course most schools can be different tiers depending on who they're playing.
The name of the game is to create as many T1 matchups as possible, through expansion or otherwise.

Some may object because ESPN agreed to pay $300M for 15 T1 SEC games, but they are forgetting that ESPN also got the SEC FCG (worth about $35M), plus 14 T3 games (for ESPN+), plus 8 T1 MBB games (worth about $4M each).

The "CBS/SEC" games are worth much more, as a group, than the average game aired on a broadcast network. So, IMO, you are overestimating the value of the average "T1" game.

Including the CCGs but not including bowls and playoffs, the "CBS/SEC" games usually include 5 or 6 of the 10 most-watched games of the entire season. The audiences for those games are far greater than the audience for the average game shown on a broadcast network, if that's what you are calling "T1".

The 5th or 6th most watched "CBS/SEC" game is usually around 7 million viewers. The median "CBS/SEC" game in 2019 had about 4.5 million viewers.

The average audience for a broadcast network game is around 2.7 million viewers in a normal (ie not 2020) season.

I did notice in my analysis that the SEC is getting more on average for T1 games than the Big Ten. That result didn't seem right to me, but maybe it is. At any rate, my $13M per game estimate is the average (SEC alone could be more like $15M, while B1G is more like $11M to $12M each).

It's all ballpark estimates anyway. I feel like I'm in the ballpark.

(08-06-2021 02:28 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 01:44 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 12:29 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 12:04 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 11:18 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  So basically, even the existing ACC schools aren’t worth $77 million/ year. Not even Notre Dame is worth $77 million/ year or even $42 million

The main argument is that the synergy of ND playing everyone on an ACC schedule could be worth $77 million per year. I can see that being the case (along with looking at it long-term that it would lead to exponential increases in value in future TV contracts). It's also the value that taking a school as valuable as ND off the table and making sure that they don't go to the Big Ten is critically important for the long-term prognosis of the ACC.

Of course, we're talking about a true elite level school like ND (or the UT/OU combo for the SEC). It shows how hard it is for anyone lower than that elite level to make that type of impact at this point with how large conferences are and the money that they're already making.

I estimated the value of the 3 tiers of games, and here's what I came up with:

T1: $13M/game
T2: $4M/game
T3: $1M/game

* my reasoning can be found here: https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2021/...worth.html

Anyway, with those estimates, you get valuations like this for TV:

If all 7 home games are T1, you're worth 7 * $13M = $91M/year (the max)
If those are all T2 games, you're worth 7 * $4M = $28M/year
If all of your games are T3, you're only worth $7M/year

Of course most schools can be different tiers depending on who they're playing.
The name of the game is to create as many T1 matchups as possible, through expansion or otherwise.

Some may object because ESPN agreed to pay $300M for 15 T1 SEC games, but they are forgetting that ESPN also got the SEC FCG (worth about $35M), plus 14 T3 games (for ESPN+), plus 8 T1 MBB games (worth about $4M each).

The "CBS/SEC" games are worth much more, as a group, than the average game aired on a broadcast network. So, IMO, you are overestimating the value of the average "T1" game.

Including the CCGs but not including bowls and playoffs, the "CBS/SEC" games usually include 5 or 6 of the 10 most-watched games of the entire season. The audiences for those games are far greater than the audience for the average game shown on a broadcast network, if that's what you are calling "T1".

The 5th or 6th most watched "CBS/SEC" game is usually around 7 million viewers. The median "CBS/SEC" game in 2019 had about 4.5 million viewers.

The average audience for a broadcast network game is around 2.7 million viewers in a normal (ie not 2020) season.

I did notice in my analysis that the SEC is getting more on average for T1 games than the Big Ten. That result didn't seem right to me, but maybe it is. At any rate, my $13M per game estimate is the average (SEC alone could be more like $15M, while B1G is more like $11M to $12M each).

It's all ballpark estimates anyway. I feel like I'm in the ballpark.

True, these are just estimates. Even if we just look at games on broadcast TV, the average SEC audience size is substantially higher than the average Big Ten audience size, so that would justify paying the SEC more.

(08-06-2021 02:28 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 01:44 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 12:29 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 12:04 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 11:18 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  So basically, even the existing ACC schools aren’t worth $77 million/ year. Not even Notre Dame is worth $77 million/ year or even $42 million

The main argument is that the synergy of ND playing everyone on an ACC schedule could be worth $77 million per year. I can see that being the case (along with looking at it long-term that it would lead to exponential increases in value in future TV contracts). It's also the value that taking a school as valuable as ND off the table and making sure that they don't go to the Big Ten is critically important for the long-term prognosis of the ACC.

Of course, we're talking about a true elite level school like ND (or the UT/OU combo for the SEC). It shows how hard it is for anyone lower than that elite level to make that type of impact at this point with how large conferences are and the money that they're already making.

I estimated the value of the 3 tiers of games, and here's what I came up with:

T1: $13M/game
T2: $4M/game
T3: $1M/game

* my reasoning can be found here: https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2021/...worth.html

Anyway, with those estimates, you get valuations like this for TV:

If all 7 home games are T1, you're worth 7 * $13M = $91M/year (the max)
If those are all T2 games, you're worth 7 * $4M = $28M/year
If all of your games are T3, you're only worth $7M/year

Of course most schools can be different tiers depending on who they're playing.
The name of the game is to create as many T1 matchups as possible, through expansion or otherwise.

Some may object because ESPN agreed to pay $300M for 15 T1 SEC games, but they are forgetting that ESPN also got the SEC FCG (worth about $35M), plus 14 T3 games (for ESPN+), plus 8 T1 MBB games (worth about $4M each).

The "CBS/SEC" games are worth much more, as a group, than the average game aired on a broadcast network. So, IMO, you are overestimating the value of the average "T1" game.

Including the CCGs but not including bowls and playoffs, the "CBS/SEC" games usually include 5 or 6 of the 10 most-watched games of the entire season. The audiences for those games are far greater than the audience for the average game shown on a broadcast network, if that's what you are calling "T1".

The 5th or 6th most watched "CBS/SEC" game is usually around 7 million viewers. The median "CBS/SEC" game in 2019 had about 4.5 million viewers.

The average audience for a broadcast network game is around 2.7 million viewers in a normal (ie not 2020) season.

I did notice in my analysis that the SEC is getting more on average for T1 games than the Big Ten. That result didn't seem right to me, but maybe it is. At any rate, my $13M per game estimate is the average (SEC alone could be more like $15M, while B1G is more like $11M to $12M each).

It's all ballpark estimates anyway. I feel like I'm in the ballpark.

CBS was willing to pay $300 million a year for 15 tier 1 SEC games. They might be interested in that many tier 1 B1G games if the B1G put together a package like that.

(08-06-2021 02:28 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 01:44 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 12:29 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 12:04 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 11:18 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  So basically, even the existing ACC schools aren’t worth $77 million/ year. Not even Notre Dame is worth $77 million/ year or even $42 million

The main argument is that the synergy of ND playing everyone on an ACC schedule could be worth $77 million per year. I can see that being the case (along with looking at it long-term that it would lead to exponential increases in value in future TV contracts). It's also the value that taking a school as valuable as ND off the table and making sure that they don't go to the Big Ten is critically important for the long-term prognosis of the ACC.

Of course, we're talking about a true elite level school like ND (or the UT/OU combo for the SEC). It shows how hard it is for anyone lower than that elite level to make that type of impact at this point with how large conferences are and the money that they're already making.

I estimated the value of the 3 tiers of games, and here's what I came up with:

T1: $13M/game
T2: $4M/game
T3: $1M/game

* my reasoning can be found here: https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2021/...worth.html

Anyway, with those estimates, you get valuations like this for TV:

If all 7 home games are T1, you're worth 7 * $13M = $91M/year (the max)
If those are all T2 games, you're worth 7 * $4M = $28M/year
If all of your games are T3, you're only worth $7M/year

Of course most schools can be different tiers depending on who they're playing.
The name of the game is to create as many T1 matchups as possible, through expansion or otherwise.

Some may object because ESPN agreed to pay $300M for 15 T1 SEC games, but they are forgetting that ESPN also got the SEC FCG (worth about $35M), plus 14 T3 games (for ESPN+), plus 8 T1 MBB games (worth about $4M each).

The "CBS/SEC" games are worth much more, as a group, than the average game aired on a broadcast network. So, IMO, you are overestimating the value of the average "T1" game.

Including the CCGs but not including bowls and playoffs, the "CBS/SEC" games usually include 5 or 6 of the 10 most-watched games of the entire season. The audiences for those games are far greater than the audience for the average game shown on a broadcast network, if that's what you are calling "T1".

The 5th or 6th most watched "CBS/SEC" game is usually around 7 million viewers. The median "CBS/SEC" game in 2019 had about 4.5 million viewers.

The average audience for a broadcast network game is around 2.7 million viewers in a normal (ie not 2020) season.

I did notice in my analysis that the SEC is getting more on average for T1 games than the Big Ten. That result didn't seem right to me, but maybe it is. At any rate, my $13M per game estimate is the average (SEC alone could be more like $15M, while B1G is more like $11M to $12M each).

It's all ballpark estimates anyway. I feel like I'm in the ballpark.

$300 million for I believe 14 games. Its pretty remarkable. Far more than I expected. Its roughly as much as the Big 12 and Big 10 conference championship games.

(08-06-2021 02:59 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 02:28 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 01:44 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 12:29 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 12:04 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The main argument is that the synergy of ND playing everyone on an ACC schedule could be worth $77 million per year. I can see that being the case (along with looking at it long-term that it would lead to exponential increases in value in future TV contracts). It's also the value that taking a school as valuable as ND off the table and making sure that they don't go to the Big Ten is critically important for the long-term prognosis of the ACC.

Of course, we're talking about a true elite level school like ND (or the UT/OU combo for the SEC). It shows how hard it is for anyone lower than that elite level to make that type of impact at this point with how large conferences are and the money that they're already making.

I estimated the value of the 3 tiers of games, and here's what I came up with:

T1: $13M/game
T2: $4M/game
T3: $1M/game

* my reasoning can be found here: https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2021/...worth.html

Anyway, with those estimates, you get valuations like this for TV:

If all 7 home games are T1, you're worth 7 * $13M = $91M/year (the max)
If those are all T2 games, you're worth 7 * $4M = $28M/year
If all of your games are T3, you're only worth $7M/year

Of course most schools can be different tiers depending on who they're playing.
The name of the game is to create as many T1 matchups as possible, through expansion or otherwise.

Some may object because ESPN agreed to pay $300M for 15 T1 SEC games, but they are forgetting that ESPN also got the SEC FCG (worth about $35M), plus 14 T3 games (for ESPN+), plus 8 T1 MBB games (worth about $4M each).

The "CBS/SEC" games are worth much more, as a group, than the average game aired on a broadcast network. So, IMO, you are overestimating the value of the average "T1" game.

Including the CCGs but not including bowls and playoffs, the "CBS/SEC" games usually include 5 or 6 of the 10 most-watched games of the entire season. The audiences for those games are far greater than the audience for the average game shown on a broadcast network, if that's what you are calling "T1".

The 5th or 6th most watched "CBS/SEC" game is usually around 7 million viewers. The median "CBS/SEC" game in 2019 had about 4.5 million viewers.

The average audience for a broadcast network game is around 2.7 million viewers in a normal (ie not 2020) season.

I did notice in my analysis that the SEC is getting more on average for T1 games than the Big Ten. That result didn't seem right to me, but maybe it is. At any rate, my $13M per game estimate is the average (SEC alone could be more like $15M, while B1G is more like $11M to $12M each).

It's all ballpark estimates anyway. I feel like I'm in the ballpark.

CBS was willing to pay $300 million a year for 15 tier 1 SEC games. They might be interested in that many tier 1 B1G games if the B1G put together a package like that.

CBS wasn't willing to pay anywhere near that amount. That was ESPN.

(08-06-2021 03:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 02:59 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 02:28 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 01:44 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 12:29 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  I estimated the value of the 3 tiers of games, and here's what I came up with:

T1: $13M/game
T2: $4M/game
T3: $1M/game

* my reasoning can be found here: https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2021/...worth.html

Anyway, with those estimates, you get valuations like this for TV:

If all 7 home games are T1, you're worth 7 * $13M = $91M/year (the max)
If those are all T2 games, you're worth 7 * $4M = $28M/year
If all of your games are T3, you're only worth $7M/year

Of course most schools can be different tiers depending on who they're playing.
The name of the game is to create as many T1 matchups as possible, through expansion or otherwise.

Some may object because ESPN agreed to pay $300M for 15 T1 SEC games, but they are forgetting that ESPN also got the SEC FCG (worth about $35M), plus 14 T3 games (for ESPN+), plus 8 T1 MBB games (worth about $4M each).

The "CBS/SEC" games are worth much more, as a group, than the average game aired on a broadcast network. So, IMO, you are overestimating the value of the average "T1" game.

Including the CCGs but not including bowls and playoffs, the "CBS/SEC" games usually include 5 or 6 of the 10 most-watched games of the entire season. The audiences for those games are far greater than the audience for the average game shown on a broadcast network, if that's what you are calling "T1".

The 5th or 6th most watched "CBS/SEC" game is usually around 7 million viewers. The median "CBS/SEC" game in 2019 had about 4.5 million viewers.

The average audience for a broadcast network game is around 2.7 million viewers in a normal (ie not 2020) season.

I did notice in my analysis that the SEC is getting more on average for T1 games than the Big Ten. That result didn't seem right to me, but maybe it is. At any rate, my $13M per game estimate is the average (SEC alone could be more like $15M, while B1G is more like $11M to $12M each).

It's all ballpark estimates anyway. I feel like I'm in the ballpark.

CBS was willing to pay $300 million a year for 15 tier 1 SEC games. They might be interested in that many tier 1 B1G games if the B1G put together a package like that.

CBS wasn't willing to pay anywhere near that amount. That was ESPN.

Also, I think ESPN/ABC is effectively getting more than just the "CBS" games. By unifying all of the SEC TV rights, they can now air as many SEC games on ABC as they want, not just the number that CBS was limited to. That is going to be even more valuable once the Horns and Sooners join, because it will increase the number of weeks for which they might want to put two SEC games on ABC instead of only one.

(08-06-2021 12:12 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 12:04 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 11:18 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  So basically, even the existing ACC schools aren’t worth $77 million/ year. Not even Notre Dame is worth $77 million/ year or even $42 million

The main argument is that the synergy of ND playing everyone on an ACC schedule could be worth $77 million per year. I can see that being the case (along with looking at it long-term that it would lead to exponential increases in value in future TV contracts). It's also the value that taking a school as valuable as ND off the table and making sure that they don't go to the Big Ten is critically important for the long-term prognosis of the ACC.

Of course, we're talking about a true elite level school like ND (or the UT/OU combo for the SEC). It shows how hard it is for anyone lower than that elite level to make that type of impact at this point with how large conferences are and the money that they're already making.

That's it in a nutshell. Notre Dame as an independent isn't worth nearly as much as they would be as a member of a P5 conference (and their NBC contract reflects this). That would be true of any university, whether it's Texas, USC or Alabama. It's just that Notre Dame realizes this and has made that tradeoff consciously.

The only schools that might consider football independence are those for whom their monetary value to a conference that would have them is minimal. Notre Dame is giving up tens of $ Millions. An East Carolina or Memphis that got left behind if the AAC were gutted by the Big 12 wouldn't be giving up much besides pride.

That's true, and it's why I when some Irish haters insist that Notre Dame is the model of college athletics greed.

I don't know of any other school that gives up as much money as Notre Dame does every year - they could make a good $20m to $30m more per year if they joined the B1G - and basically on principle.

(08-06-2021 04:40 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 12:12 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 12:04 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 11:18 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  So basically, even the existing ACC schools aren’t worth $77 million/ year. Not even Notre Dame is worth $77 million/ year or even $42 million

The main argument is that the synergy of ND playing everyone on an ACC schedule could be worth $77 million per year. I can see that being the case (along with looking at it long-term that it would lead to exponential increases in value in future TV contracts). It's also the value that taking a school as valuable as ND off the table and making sure that they don't go to the Big Ten is critically important for the long-term prognosis of the ACC.

Of course, we're talking about a true elite level school like ND (or the UT/OU combo for the SEC). It shows how hard it is for anyone lower than that elite level to make that type of impact at this point with how large conferences are and the money that they're already making.

That's it in a nutshell. Notre Dame as an independent isn't worth nearly as much as they would be as a member of a P5 conference (and their NBC contract reflects this). That would be true of any university, whether it's Texas, USC or Alabama. It's just that Notre Dame realizes this and has made that tradeoff consciously.

The only schools that might consider football independence are those for whom their monetary value to a conference that would have them is minimal. Notre Dame is giving up tens of $ Millions. An East Carolina or Memphis that got left behind if the AAC were gutted by the Big 12 wouldn't be giving up much besides pride.

That's true, and it's why I when some Irish haters insist that Notre Dame is the model of college athletics greed.

I don't know of any other school that gives up as much money as Notre Dame does every year - they could make a good $20m to $30m more per year if they joined the B1G - and basically on principle.

ND would make that much more in TV money, compared to their current arrangement, if they were a full member of the Big Ten. But would they lose donations by doing that, and if so how much? And would they lose brand value if, as a permanent Big Ten member, people eventually start to think of ND as just another midwestern university, or just a Catholic version of Northwestern?

(08-06-2021 05:03 PM)Wedge Wrote:  ND would make that much more in TV money, compared to their current arrangement, if they were a full member of the Big Ten. But would they lose donations by doing that, and if so how much? And would they lose brand value if, as a permanent Big Ten member, people eventually start to think of ND as just another midwestern university, or just a Catholic version of Northwestern?

Great points.

(08-06-2021 03:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 02:59 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 02:28 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 01:44 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 12:29 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  I estimated the value of the 3 tiers of games, and here's what I came up with:

T1: $13M/game
T2: $4M/game
T3: $1M/game

* my reasoning can be found here: https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2021/...worth.html

Anyway, with those estimates, you get valuations like this for TV:

If all 7 home games are T1, you're worth 7 * $13M = $91M/year (the max)
If those are all T2 games, you're worth 7 * $4M = $28M/year
If all of your games are T3, you're only worth $7M/year

Of course most schools can be different tiers depending on who they're playing.
The name of the game is to create as many T1 matchups as possible, through expansion or otherwise.

Some may object because ESPN agreed to pay $300M for 15 T1 SEC games, but they are forgetting that ESPN also got the SEC FCG (worth about $35M), plus 14 T3 games (for ESPN+), plus 8 T1 MBB games (worth about $4M each).

The "CBS/SEC" games are worth much more, as a group, than the average game aired on a broadcast network. So, IMO, you are overestimating the value of the average "T1" game.

Including the CCGs but not including bowls and playoffs, the "CBS/SEC" games usually include 5 or 6 of the 10 most-watched games of the entire season. The audiences for those games are far greater than the audience for the average game shown on a broadcast network, if that's what you are calling "T1".

The 5th or 6th most watched "CBS/SEC" game is usually around 7 million viewers. The median "CBS/SEC" game in 2019 had about 4.5 million viewers.

The average audience for a broadcast network game is around 2.7 million viewers in a normal (ie not 2020) season.

I did notice in my analysis that the SEC is getting more on average for T1 games than the Big Ten. That result didn't seem right to me, but maybe it is. At any rate, my $13M per game estimate is the average (SEC alone could be more like $15M, while B1G is more like $11M to $12M each).

It's all ballpark estimates anyway. I feel like I'm in the ballpark.

CBS was willing to pay $300 million a year for 15 tier 1 SEC games. They might be interested in that many tier 1 B1G games if the B1G put together a package like that.

CBS wasn't willing to pay anywhere near that amount. That was ESPN.

Reports were that CBS was willing to go around $300M, but dropped out once the bidding went much higher. ESPN was willing to pay well North of $300M.

(08-06-2021 05:03 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 04:40 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 12:12 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 12:04 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 11:18 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  So basically, even the existing ACC schools aren’t worth $77 million/ year. Not even Notre Dame is worth $77 million/ year or even $42 million

The main argument is that the synergy of ND playing everyone on an ACC schedule could be worth $77 million per year. I can see that being the case (along with looking at it long-term that it would lead to exponential increases in value in future TV contracts). It's also the value that taking a school as valuable as ND off the table and making sure that they don't go to the Big Ten is critically important for the long-term prognosis of the ACC.

Of course, we're talking about a true elite level school like ND (or the UT/OU combo for the SEC). It shows how hard it is for anyone lower than that elite level to make that type of impact at this point with how large conferences are and the money that they're already making.

That's it in a nutshell. Notre Dame as an independent isn't worth nearly as much as they would be as a member of a P5 conference (and their NBC contract reflects this). That would be true of any university, whether it's Texas, USC or Alabama. It's just that Notre Dame realizes this and has made that tradeoff consciously.

The only schools that might consider football independence are those for whom their monetary value to a conference that would have them is minimal. Notre Dame is giving up tens of $ Millions. An East Carolina or Memphis that got left behind if the AAC were gutted by the Big 12 wouldn't be giving up much besides pride.

That's true, and it's why I when some Irish haters insist that Notre Dame is the model of college athletics greed.

I don't know of any other school that gives up as much money as Notre Dame does every year - they could make a good $20m to $30m more per year if they joined the B1G - and basically on principle.

ND would make that much more in TV money, compared to their current arrangement, if they were a full member of the Big Ten. But would they lose donations by doing that, and if so how much? And would they lose brand value if, as a permanent Big Ten member, people eventually start to think of ND as just another midwestern university, or just a Catholic version of Northwestern?

Those are possible outcomes - or they could go the other way too.

What I think we know is solid is the $20m to $30m more in TV money from joining the B1G.

Notre Dame just wants full control of its media rights. If Notre Dame joined the Big Ten, they'd be with Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State when it comes to OTA exposure. If they're playing a scrub and one of the other three are playing a better opponent, they probably wind up on cable. Right now Alabama is limited to five games on CBS a year. That will go up when ABC takes over but still Alabama will have to fight with Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Auburn, and Texas A&M. ABC can only air three games a day and still has a contract with the ACC and might still have a contract with the Big 10. Why not have a contract when you can air as many games on a broadcast network as they want?

It’s sad to me that this is what CFB has become.

The greatest reason you had viewership in the past, as well as fan interest in the first place…
Is rivalry. Plain and simple. It’s what moves the needle.

Everyone is so analytical anymore about markets and advertising, we’ve lost what CFB is all about.

It’s sad.

(08-07-2021 08:04 AM)ThunderDent Wrote:  It’s sad to me that this is what CFB has become.

The greatest reason you had viewership in the past, as well as fan interest in the first place…
Is rivalry. Plain and simple. It’s what moves the needle.

Everyone is so analytical anymore about markets and advertising, we’ve lost what CFB is all about.

It’s sad.

The Midas touch of corporate America, take that which is loved in life and turn it into gold thus killing it.

There are no expansion candidates for the ACC which add significantly and Terry D is correct in that should ND be forced to join for playoff inclusion in some future system then they will do so where it pays them the most and that's not the ACC. Their relationship with the ACC is symbiotic only.

If you crunch numbers and filter through academic standards you will find that Washington, USC, Stanford and UCLA are the only PAC schools which could add any revenue to the current B1G payouts (when adjusted for media revenue disparity) and that the strongest, UW, would enter the current B10 in 7th earning position. So minus added travel this scenario is DOA and leaving an untampered PAC 12 is in the B1G's self interest. The B12 has nothing left that adds value as Kansas doesn't come close enough to paying their way in, under the NCAA hoops control, and the only SEC school that might consider them, Missouri, doesn't cover itself either.

In the ACC the candidates which add revenue are 4 with one revenue neutral:
Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville, Clemson, and neutral Miami.

None of them are worth it without Notre Dame as gains would be minimal. The best pairing is Notre Dame / FSU. After the academic filter it's Notre Dame / Miami and Miami has a large Northern diaspora to assist, FSU not so much in the Panhandle.

If ND says no, the B1G is out of options.

The ACC can't poach the SEC, B1G or PAC because they either can't offer enough or what they could offer won't cover travel. Kansas and TCU can add a little but both would be outliers.

The SEC has everything it wants and wouldn't expand unless ND came knocking and right now why would they? Push for restrictive playoffs instead of expansion like the PAC has hinted and ND is forced and the most money and best recruiting access is in the SEC, not the B1G.

So the new SEC is now N.D.'s best ally to keep independence. Push them and they join us, likely with FSU. Do that and the gap grows. Leave them alone and give them access and the ACC remains as is, and so too do the PAC and B10. We wind up with a P4, likely with an 8 team playoff (4 champs and 4 at large). Yes we really have a P2+ and a P2 but that's preferable to a P1 and a Psub3. There's your upper tier. Maybe the PAC picks up Kansas and TCU but that's about it. I think unless networks just decide to toss money for an NFL model realignment is over now for quite some time.

(08-06-2021 03:22 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 03:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 02:59 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 02:28 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 01:44 PM)Wedge Wrote:  The "CBS/SEC" games are worth much more, as a group, than the average game aired on a broadcast network. So, IMO, you are overestimating the value of the average "T1" game.

Including the CCGs but not including bowls and playoffs, the "CBS/SEC" games usually include 5 or 6 of the 10 most-watched games of the entire season. The audiences for those games are far greater than the audience for the average game shown on a broadcast network, if that's what you are calling "T1".

The 5th or 6th most watched "CBS/SEC" game is usually around 7 million viewers. The median "CBS/SEC" game in 2019 had about 4.5 million viewers.

The average audience for a broadcast network game is around 2.7 million viewers in a normal (ie not 2020) season.

I did notice in my analysis that the SEC is getting more on average for T1 games than the Big Ten. That result didn't seem right to me, but maybe it is. At any rate, my $13M per game estimate is the average (SEC alone could be more like $15M, while B1G is more like $11M to $12M each).

It's all ballpark estimates anyway. I feel like I'm in the ballpark.

CBS was willing to pay $300 million a year for 15 tier 1 SEC games. They might be interested in that many tier 1 B1G games if the B1G put together a package like that.

CBS wasn't willing to pay anywhere near that amount. That was ESPN.

Also, I think ESPN/ABC is effectively getting more than just the "CBS" games. By unifying all of the SEC TV rights, they can now air as many SEC games on ABC as they want, not just the number that CBS was limited to. That is going to be even more valuable once the Horns and Sooners join, because it will increase the number of weeks for which they might want to put two SEC games on ABC instead of only one.

I anticipate that on Saturdays the ABC schedule will look something like:

Noon: ACC GOTW
3:30: SEC GOTW
7:30: SEC #2

ESPN and ESPN2 will be littered with SEC and ACC content while the SECN still ends up with some pretty good games seeing as the SEC has 11 of the top 15 schools in attendance. With that glut of content, ESPN+ probably gets some decent games too. I wouldn’t be surprised is there isn’t an agreement that would put every SEC team on SECN and ESPN+ at least once a season.

(08-07-2021 08:04 AM)ThunderDent Wrote:  It’s sad to me that this is what CFB has become.

The greatest reason you had viewership in the past, as well as fan interest in the first place…
Is rivalry. Plain and simple. It’s what moves the needle.

Everyone is so analytical anymore about markets and advertising, we’ve lost what CFB is all about.

It’s sad.

I'm not sure about that. What rivalries have been hurt by the current state of college football?

IMO, arguably the biggest lost rivalry of the past decade was the Texas vs Texas AM rivalry that disappeared when TAMU joined the SEC. We're now likely to get that back, and I don't think the OU - OK State game is going anywhere, it will now be an OOC game.

(08-07-2021 10:49 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I wouldn’t be surprised is there isn’t an agreement that would put every SEC team on SECN and ESPN+ at least once a season.

The latest SEC contract includes a stipulation that each team will have one non-conference (typically vs FCS) game on ESPN+.

All future contracts with ESPN are likely to include a provision like that, IMO.

I'd be intrigued by how much value they'd get out of this move; which might not necessarily be only the value of these programs and the inventory it creates, but also a recruiting boost and negatively impacting others.


Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor and Houston.

(08-07-2021 11:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-07-2021 08:04 AM)ThunderDent Wrote:  It’s sad to me that this is what CFB has become.

The greatest reason you had viewership in the past, as well as fan interest in the first place…
Is rivalry. Plain and simple. It’s what moves the needle.

Everyone is so analytical anymore about markets and advertising, we’ve lost what CFB is all about.

It’s sad.

I'm not sure about that. What rivalries have been hurt by the current state of college football?

IMO, arguably the biggest lost rivalry of the past decade was the Texas vs Texas AM rivalry that disappeared when TAMU joined the SEC. We're now likely to get that back, and I don't think the OU - OK State game is going anywhere, it will now be an OOC game.

I tend to agree. Nebraska wasn’t playing Oklahoma annually in the Big XII, so that was already diminished. Nebraska doesn’t play any of their old foes annually. Missouri is gaining Oklahoma back at least.

The major rivalries that pretty much stopped in the early 90’s were Penn State-Pitt, some of PSU’s other eastern foes, and Miami-UF.

(08-06-2021 10:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  If the ACC commissioner can find a way to significantly boost revenues in the next few years, I will be *seriously* impressed.

The ACC seems stuck at a low (by P5 standards) number and the only apparent addition that could change that is Notre Dame, and I don't see them joining.

Its a pickle, IMO.

It is. The only untapped resource I see is the ACC Network. It launched just in time for Covid, so we don't really know yet what kind of revenue difference the network could make.

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