Credit to Statefan who mentioned David Teel as being a reputable source for ACC info. I looked him up after that post and found this article he wrote.

I think it's a good read with a lot of info about where the AAC stands currently. One part that stood out to me was at the end of the section "How can the ACC create new revenue?" He breaks down some levels of how the revenue generated by an added school impacts conference distributions. I had always wanted to see some tangible numbers like this, but didn't know how to ask or exactly how to look it up.

Quote:But would Cincinnati and the Ohio market, or any other school, group of schools or alliance make more money for the ACC? The league’s media consultants and ESPN will run the numbers, and at the risk of math overload, here’s a pretty straightforward equation:

Any new ACC member would need to generate approximately $32.4 million annually, the conference’s average share, just to keep everyone’s piece of the pie static. To bump that per-school distribution by $1 million in what would then be a 15-team league, add $15 million to that $32.4 million, or $47.4 million.

To increase distributions by $3 million, we’re talking $77.4 million in additional revenue from one school, the original $32.4 million plus three multiples of $15 million, or $45 million.

The ACC’s expansion calculations could take time, but how much likely hinges on whether officials believe any potential target is primed to jump elsewhere.

My question to help me better understand is while we can look up revenues at certain sites, how do conferences and providers like ESPN and FOX calculate these numbers? Like Teel said his example is pretty straightforward, but I am guessing it's not the same for the ones I just mentioned.

The ACC will wait, and wait, and wait, on Notre Dame for full-time football. The Commissioner said as much.

"The wait", more wishing than realism, will lead to defections, perhaps sooner than later.

(08-06-2021 05:37 AM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  The ACC will wait, and wait, and wait, on Notre Dame for full-time football. The Commissioner said as much.

"The wait", more wishing than realism, will lead to defections, perhaps sooner than later.

Ever heard of "paralysis by analysis"?

It is what it is….

(08-06-2021 05:37 AM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  The ACC will wait, and wait, and wait, on Notre Dame for full-time football. The Commissioner said as much.

"The wait", more wishing than realism, will lead to defections, perhaps sooner than later.

Meanwhile, the biggest story before the OK/TX move, the CFP12 proposal which is still being worked on, makes a move by ND to a conference less likely.

After PSU joined, the Big Ten waited with a spot open for Notre Dame for over 15 years, but then finally filled it by recruiting Nebraska.

We've already seen that, just as the game theory predicts, the strength of the GOR in holding a conference together starts to weaken as you get closer to the end of the GOR period. But for the ACC, that's about a decade from now, and a lot about the current college sporting world can change in a decade.

A-list programs only.

(08-06-2021 12:43 AM)Alanda Wrote:  Credit to Statefan who mentioned David Teel as being a reputable source for ACC info. I looked him up after that post and found this article he wrote.

I think it's a good read with a lot of info about where the AAC stands currently. One part that stood out to me was at the end of the section "How can the ACC create new revenue?" He breaks down some levels of how the revenue generated by an added school impacts conference distributions. I had always wanted to see some tangible numbers like this, but didn't know how to ask or exactly how to look it up.

Quote:But would Cincinnati and the Ohio market, or any other school, group of schools or alliance make more money for the ACC? The league’s media consultants and ESPN will run the numbers, and at the risk of math overload, here’s a pretty straightforward equation:

Any new ACC member would need to generate approximately $32.4 million annually, the conference’s average share, just to keep everyone’s piece of the pie static. To bump that per-school distribution by $1 million in what would then be a 15-team league, add $15 million to that $32.4 million, or $47.4 million.

To increase distributions by $3 million, we’re talking $77.4 million in additional revenue from one school, the original $32.4 million plus three multiples of $15 million, or $45 million.

The ACC’s expansion calculations could take time, but how much likely hinges on whether officials believe any potential target is primed to jump elsewhere.

My question to help me better understand is while we can look up revenues at certain sites, how do conferences and providers like ESPN and FOX calculate these numbers? Like Teel said his example is pretty straightforward, but I am guessing it's not the same for the ones I just mentioned.

That analysis is OK in one way, but flawed in another. On the one hand, you are looking at how much incremental revenue would an expansion candidate generate that would add to the total pool of money to be shared by existing members. Sometimes, though, you also have to consider whether adding that school would prevent the erosion of the current pool of money by retaining some members who might be considering defecting.

The worst of all worlds is to add a school that doesn't self-generate as much as your existing membership and also contributes to the likely defection of current members which generate more revenue than the average of all the teams in the conference.

Within the P5, every conference has members that contribute more than others to the total revenue pool. To the extent that equal revenue sharing provides incentive for high earners to seek greener pastures, defection is always a risk. When that inequality is extreme, like it is in the Big 12, that risk becomes an inevitable certainty as we have just seen.

(08-06-2021 12:43 AM)Alanda Wrote:  Credit to Statefan who mentioned David Teel as being a reputable source for ACC info. I looked him up after that post and found this article he wrote.

I think it's a good read with a lot of info about where the AAC stands currently. One part that stood out to me was at the end of the section "How can the ACC create new revenue?" He breaks down some levels of how the revenue generated by an added school impacts conference distributions. I had always wanted to see some tangible numbers like this, but didn't know how to ask or exactly how to look it up.

Quote:But would Cincinnati and the Ohio market, or any other school, group of schools or alliance make more money for the ACC? The league’s media consultants and ESPN will run the numbers, and at the risk of math overload, here’s a pretty straightforward equation:

Any new ACC member would need to generate approximately $32.4 million annually, the conference’s average share, just to keep everyone’s piece of the pie static. To bump that per-school distribution by $1 million in what would then be a 15-team league, add $15 million to that $32.4 million, or $47.4 million.

To increase distributions by $3 million, we’re talking $77.4 million in additional revenue from one school, the original $32.4 million plus three multiples of $15 million, or $45 million.

The ACC’s expansion calculations could take time, but how much likely hinges on whether officials believe any potential target is primed to jump elsewhere.

My question to help me better understand is while we can look up revenues at certain sites, how do conferences and providers like ESPN and FOX calculate these numbers? Like Teel said his example is pretty straightforward, but I am guessing it's not the same for the ones I just mentioned.

His logic and numbers are saying EXACTLY what I’ve been saying for some time. P5 expansion has reached the point of diminishing returns. Adding more teams no longer adds enough new revenue to increase the per team payout UNLESS the team being added is an extremely high value tent pole school like Texas, Oklahoma, Bama, Ohio State, etc.

At this juncture it's probably prudent for the ACC to see what the Big 10 does and what NIL does to the Big 10 school like Minnesota, Michigan, NW, Illinois, and Wisconsin.

PSU, OSU, Nebraska, and Iowa are all in on football until the end times. If you have to sacrifice a virgin before every game they are going to do it. It's not beyond the pale that cultural changes cause a split in the B10 that results in a second Ivy League model. If that happens you might see a Minnesota, Michigan, Illinois, NW, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Rutgers or MD hook up with a Kansas, Duke, BC, and UVa for a football only arrangement where it is modeled on the Ivy League. If that happens PSU, Nebraska, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State and MSU have decisions to make regarding how they handle football. Might not be soon, but if the trends continue it might be an issue come the 2030's.

If the ACC commissioner can find a way to significantly boost revenues in the next few years, I will be *seriously* impressed.

The ACC seems stuck at a low (by P5 standards) number and the only apparent addition that could change that is Notre Dame, and I don't see them joining.

Its a pickle, IMO.

So basically, even the existing ACC schools aren’t worth $77 million/ year. Not even Notre Dame is worth $77 million/ year or even $42 million

(08-06-2021 11:18 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  So basically, even the existing ACC schools aren’t worth $77 million/ year. Not even Notre Dame is worth $77 million/ year or even $42 million

The main argument is that the synergy of ND playing everyone on an ACC schedule could be worth $77 million per year. I can see that being the case (along with looking at it long-term that it would lead to exponential increases in value in future TV contracts). It's also the value that taking a school as valuable as ND off the table and making sure that they don't go to the Big Ten is critically important for the long-term prognosis of the ACC.

Of course, we're talking about a true elite level school like ND (or the UT/OU combo for the SEC). It shows how hard it is for anyone lower than that elite level to make that type of impact at this point with how large conferences are and the money that they're already making.

(08-06-2021 08:58 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 12:43 AM)Alanda Wrote:  Credit to Statefan who mentioned David Teel as being a reputable source for ACC info. I looked him up after that post and found this article he wrote.

I think it's a good read with a lot of info about where the AAC stands currently. One part that stood out to me was at the end of the section "How can the ACC create new revenue?" He breaks down some levels of how the revenue generated by an added school impacts conference distributions. I had always wanted to see some tangible numbers like this, but didn't know how to ask or exactly how to look it up.

Quote:But would Cincinnati and the Ohio market, or any other school, group of schools or alliance make more money for the ACC? The league’s media consultants and ESPN will run the numbers, and at the risk of math overload, here’s a pretty straightforward equation:

Any new ACC member would need to generate approximately $32.4 million annually, the conference’s average share, just to keep everyone’s piece of the pie static. To bump that per-school distribution by $1 million in what would then be a 15-team league, add $15 million to that $32.4 million, or $47.4 million.

To increase distributions by $3 million, we’re talking $77.4 million in additional revenue from one school, the original $32.4 million plus three multiples of $15 million, or $45 million.

The ACC’s expansion calculations could take time, but how much likely hinges on whether officials believe any potential target is primed to jump elsewhere.

My question to help me better understand is while we can look up revenues at certain sites, how do conferences and providers like ESPN and FOX calculate these numbers? Like Teel said his example is pretty straightforward, but I am guessing it's not the same for the ones I just mentioned.

That analysis is OK in one way, but flawed in another. On the one hand, you are looking at how much incremental revenue would an expansion candidate generate that would add to the total pool of money to be shared by existing members. Sometimes, though, you also have to consider whether adding that school would prevent the erosion of the current pool of money by retaining some members who might be considering defecting.

The worst of all worlds is to add a school that doesn't self-generate as much as your existing membership and also contributes to the likely defection of current members which generate more revenue than the average of all the teams in the conference.

Within the P5, every conference has members that contribute more than others to the total revenue pool. To the extent that equal revenue sharing provides incentive for high earners to seek greener pastures, defection is always a risk. When that inequality is extreme, like it is in the Big 12, that risk becomes an inevitable certainty as we have just seen.

I think this is true. However, I also think that we're generally talking about the same pool of elite schools that would have that retention effect: ND, UT, OU, etc. For example, I think West Virginia is an excellent athletic department with a great fan base, but I honestly don't believe that having them in the ACC would matter any bit to the retention of FSU and/or Clemson if the SEC or Big Ten wanted them. Adding ND, on the other hand, would be a different story.

(08-06-2021 12:04 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 11:18 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  So basically, even the existing ACC schools aren’t worth $77 million/ year. Not even Notre Dame is worth $77 million/ year or even $42 million

The main argument is that the synergy of ND playing everyone on an ACC schedule could be worth $77 million per year. I can see that being the case (along with looking at it long-term that it would lead to exponential increases in value in future TV contracts). It's also the value that taking a school as valuable as ND off the table and making sure that they don't go to the Big Ten is critically important for the long-term prognosis of the ACC.

Of course, we're talking about a true elite level school like ND (or the UT/OU combo for the SEC). It shows how hard it is for anyone lower than that elite level to make that type of impact at this point with how large conferences are and the money that they're already making.

That's it in a nutshell. Notre Dame as an independent isn't worth nearly as much as they would be as a member of a P5 conference (and their NBC contract reflects this). That would be true of any university, whether it's Texas, USC or Alabama. It's just that Notre Dame realizes this and has made that tradeoff consciously.

The only schools that might consider football independence are those for whom their monetary value to a conference that would have them is minimal. Notre Dame is giving up tens of $ Millions. An East Carolina or Memphis that got left behind if the AAC were gutted by the Big 12 wouldn't be giving up much besides pride.

(08-06-2021 12:04 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 11:18 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  So basically, even the existing ACC schools aren’t worth $77 million/ year. Not even Notre Dame is worth $77 million/ year or even $42 million

The main argument is that the synergy of ND playing everyone on an ACC schedule could be worth $77 million per year. I can see that being the case (along with looking at it long-term that it would lead to exponential increases in value in future TV contracts). It's also the value that taking a school as valuable as ND off the table and making sure that they don't go to the Big Ten is critically important for the long-term prognosis of the ACC.

Of course, we're talking about a true elite level school like ND (or the UT/OU combo for the SEC). It shows how hard it is for anyone lower than that elite level to make that type of impact at this point with how large conferences are and the money that they're already making.

I estimated the value of the 3 tiers of games, and here's what I came up with:

T1: $13M/game
T2: $4M/game
T3: $1M/game

* my reasoning can be found here: https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2021/...worth.html

Anyway, with those estimates, you get valuations like this for TV:

If all 7 home games are T1, you're worth 7 * $13M = $91M/year (the max)
If those are all T2 games, you're worth 7 * $4M = $28M/year
If all of your games are T3, you're only worth $7M/year

Of course most schools can be different tiers depending on who they're playing.
The name of the game is to create as many T1 matchups as possible, through expansion or otherwise.

Some may object because ESPN agreed to pay $300M for 15 T1 SEC games, but they are forgetting that ESPN also got the SEC FCG (worth about $35M), plus 14 T3 games (for ESPN+), plus 8 T1 MBB games (worth about $4M each).

(08-06-2021 10:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  If the ACC commissioner can find a way to significantly boost revenues in the next few years, I will be *seriously* impressed.

The ACC seems stuck at a low (by P5 standards) number and the only apparent addition that could change that is Notre Dame, and I don't see them joining.

Its a pickle, IMO.

I agree. As a PSU fan, we've seen chatter about "PSU defecting to ACC" and I know there's no way that will happen. The Big Ten makes too much money.

UNLESS...

Notre Dame and PSU both go to the ACC. That would instantly make the ACC 16 more valuable than the Big Ten 13 (they'd definitely add Kansas, in that scenario).

I even think that coming in to a league WITH someone like Penn State would be more agreeable to the ND football die hards, simply because then you'd have two kings of football joining Clemson, Miami, and Florida State as historically strong programs.

Why wouldn't they be positive and unified?

No one can leave for 15 years and ND's not joining. So, there won't be any expansion.

Just business as usual.

Pretty easy to be unified when you’re all chained together by a GOR that:

Financially ruins anyone who tries to leave for decades
Leaves the rest ruined after the exit fees dry up

(08-06-2021 12:29 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 12:04 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 11:18 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  So basically, even the existing ACC schools aren’t worth $77 million/ year. Not even Notre Dame is worth $77 million/ year or even $42 million

The main argument is that the synergy of ND playing everyone on an ACC schedule could be worth $77 million per year. I can see that being the case (along with looking at it long-term that it would lead to exponential increases in value in future TV contracts). It's also the value that taking a school as valuable as ND off the table and making sure that they don't go to the Big Ten is critically important for the long-term prognosis of the ACC.

Of course, we're talking about a true elite level school like ND (or the UT/OU combo for the SEC). It shows how hard it is for anyone lower than that elite level to make that type of impact at this point with how large conferences are and the money that they're already making.

I estimated the value of the 3 tiers of games, and here's what I came up with:

T1: $13M/game
T2: $4M/game
T3: $1M/game

* my reasoning can be found here: https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2021/...worth.html

Anyway, with those estimates, you get valuations like this for TV:

If all 7 home games are T1, you're worth 7 * $13M = $91M/year (the max)
If those are all T2 games, you're worth 7 * $4M = $28M/year
If all of your games are T3, you're only worth $7M/year

Of course most schools can be different tiers depending on who they're playing.
The name of the game is to create as many T1 matchups as possible, through expansion or otherwise.

Some may object because ESPN agreed to pay $300M for 15 T1 SEC games, but they are forgetting that ESPN also got the SEC FCG (worth about $35M), plus 14 T3 games (for ESPN+), plus 8 T1 MBB games (worth about $4M each).

The "CBS/SEC" games are worth much more, as a group, than the average game aired on a broadcast network. So, IMO, you are overestimating the value of the average "T1" game.

Including the CCGs but not including bowls and playoffs, the "CBS/SEC" games usually include 5 or 6 of the 10 most-watched games of the entire season. The audiences for those games are far greater than the audience for the average game shown on a broadcast network, if that's what you are calling "T1".

The 5th or 6th most watched "CBS/SEC" game is usually around 7 million viewers. The median "CBS/SEC" game in 2019 had about 4.5 million viewers.

The average audience for a broadcast network game is around 2.7 million viewers in a normal (ie not 2020) season.

(08-06-2021 08:28 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-06-2021 05:37 AM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  The ACC will wait, and wait, and wait, on Notre Dame for full-time football. The Commissioner said as much.

"The wait", more wishing than realism, will lead to defections, perhaps sooner than later.

Ever heard of "paralysis by analysis"?

Makes perfect sense given the # of engineering schools in the ACC. I work with too many who couldn't make a decision and move forward if their lives depended on it.