(06-28-2023 12:29 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(06-28-2023 11:06 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(06-28-2023 04:20 AM)XLance Wrote:  SicEM365 is a Big 12 homer site. It will be interesting to see how accurate their numbers are compared to actual numbers once Texas and Oklahoma exit their conference.

No doubt, they're Baylor green. However, Bob Thompson is not known for his love of the big 12, he's spent the past year pumping up the Pac. Wilner linked the article, too. That's a pretty strong endorsement from sources not known for their love of the big 12.

Ehh? The thrust of the author’s argument seems to be that the B12 is uniquely positioned to gain the most “Big Viewership Windows” on television. Specifically,

1) B1G had 43 games on “Big Viewership Windows” with 14 teams and he’s predicting a potential of 46 games on “Big Viewership Windows”. In other words, the B1G expands with USC and UCLA and its potential for games on “Big Viewership Windows” expands by 7%.

2) SEC had 38 games on “Big Viewership Windows” with 14 teams and he’s forecasting a potential of 41 “Big Viewership Windows” in the future. The SEC will expand with blue bloods football programs (Oklahoma and Texas) and make the same incremental gain as the B1G.

3) B12 had 18 games on “Big Viewership Windows” as a 10-team conference and (per the author) has the potential for 28 games on “Big Viewership Windows” going forward. He’s predicting a 56% potential growth in B12 games during critical time-slots…more than all other FBS conferences combined.

Given that the future is uncertain, he’s presenting a very optimistic view for the B12 (the homer perspective).

Replying to each point:

1- Regarding the Big Ten. They have 16 NBC and 14-15 CBS with 14-15 FOX plus an annual title game. Depending on if the title games are included in those flexible high or low estimates that's 43-46. Exactly what's depicted on the chart. FS1, Peacock, and BTN won't get you 2M viewer expected windows.

2- Regarding the SEC they have 2 of the 14 additional games from TXOU committed to ESPN+. From there 5 of the 12 are likely committed to the SECN. So 7 new games total and they pick up a couple more on the big windows as minimums for other leagues and odd start times will likely be given elsewhere. They'll get those 7 on ABC/ESPN but not every ESPN window is 2M plus. Is there an argument for a couple more? Perhaps but it's far from a dramatic undersell.

3- Regarding the Big 12 it shows 18 as a starting point. That's reasonable as both the TV partners are likely down in P5 inventory once the P12 deal gets signed and FOX is likely way down.

As far as the upside to potentially get more let's look.

If FOX is out on the PAC 12 and if NBC & CBS contractually prevent FOX from putting B1G games on big fox in prime time or the afternoon that leaves around 21-22 games on FOX alone where the Big 12 or MWC could fill based on what they've broadcast before. If these assumptions are right it would appear to be a big opportunity to get additional platform windows.

Prior track record for the B1G on FOX was about 17 games per year total including Big Noon.

Saying there's a minimum of 18 and room for more isn't crazy.

The ACC has room for more but the competition on ABC/ESPN projects much tougher than FOX/FS1 which is why there's a disparity there.

Excellent work. Well presented too on 365 sports on YouTube.

(06-27-2023 02:01 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(06-27-2023 01:06 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  This is cute.

Exposure without Revenue or Viewership attached looks great on paper. I can drink that Kool-aid. Exposure as a strategy works.

The major difference is that Big 12 doesn't have a dedicated network. The bulk of ACC's 50% Homes is due to ACC Network. The bulk of B1G and SEC's 60% Homes is due to BTN and SECN respectively. The success or failure of the conference's dedicated network is going to be key for the next decade or so.

The ACCN is something that's actively working against an early termination of the ACC GoR. ESPN has a lot invested in that and they want to get their money out of it.

Exactly. Which is why I would assume FOX's Big Ten to be more motivated to power any real move against the ACC, if one is even possible before 2030 with the GOR.

(06-28-2023 03:00 PM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(06-28-2023 12:29 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(06-28-2023 11:06 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(06-28-2023 04:20 AM)XLance Wrote:  SicEM365 is a Big 12 homer site. It will be interesting to see how accurate their numbers are compared to actual numbers once Texas and Oklahoma exit their conference.

No doubt, they're Baylor green. However, Bob Thompson is not known for his love of the big 12, he's spent the past year pumping up the Pac. Wilner linked the article, too. That's a pretty strong endorsement from sources not known for their love of the big 12.

Ehh? The thrust of the author’s argument seems to be that the B12 is uniquely positioned to gain the most “Big Viewership Windows” on television. Specifically,

1) B1G had 43 games on “Big Viewership Windows” with 14 teams and he’s predicting a potential of 46 games on “Big Viewership Windows”. In other words, the B1G expands with USC and UCLA and its potential for games on “Big Viewership Windows” expands by 7%.

2) SEC had 38 games on “Big Viewership Windows” with 14 teams and he’s forecasting a potential of 41 “Big Viewership Windows” in the future. The SEC will expand with blue bloods football programs (Oklahoma and Texas) and make the same incremental gain as the B1G.

3) B12 had 18 games on “Big Viewership Windows” as a 10-team conference and (per the author) has the potential for 28 games on “Big Viewership Windows” going forward. He’s predicting a 56% potential growth in B12 games during critical time-slots…more than all other FBS conferences combined.

Given that the future is uncertain, he’s presenting a very optimistic view for the B12 (the homer perspective).

Replying to each point:

1- Regarding the Big Ten. They have 16 NBC and 14-15 CBS with 14-15 FOX plus an annual title game. Depending on if the title games are included in those flexible high or low estimates that's 43-46. Exactly what's depicted on the chart. FS1, Peacock, and BTN won't get you 2M viewer expected windows.

2- Regarding the SEC they have 2 of the 14 additional games from TXOU committed to ESPN+. From there 5 of the 12 are likely committed to the SECN. So 7 new games total and they pick up a couple more on the big windows as minimums for other leagues and odd start times will likely be given elsewhere. They'll get those 7 on ABC/ESPN but not every ESPN window is 2M plus. Is there an argument for a couple more? Perhaps but it's far from a dramatic undersell.

3- Regarding the Big 12 it shows 18 as a starting point. That's reasonable as both the TV partners are likely down in P5 inventory once the P12 deal gets signed and FOX is likely way down.

As far as the upside to potentially get more let's look.

If FOX is out on the PAC 12 and if NBC & CBS contractually prevent FOX from putting B1G games on big fox in prime time or the afternoon that leaves around 21-22 games on FOX alone where the Big 12 or MWC could fill based on what they've broadcast before. If these assumptions are right it would appear to be a big opportunity to get additional platform windows.

Prior track record for the B1G on FOX was about 17 games per year total including Big Noon.

Saying there's a minimum of 18 and room for more isn't crazy.

The ACC has room for more but the competition on ABC/ESPN projects much tougher than FOX/FS1 which is why there's a disparity there.

I never wrote or even suggested that any assumption was crazy. Overall, it was informative and a good read.

Except for the B12, my take is that the assumptions are somewhat cautious and conservative. With regards to the P2, I believe that media companies will find more ways to promote their content…they’re more vested in these conferences and over time media can help develop brands. ESPN and Fox value and want the long-term relationships. With regards to the ACC, ESPN has been focused on solidifying (establishing) the ACCN…therefore, more valuable content has been redirected to that outlet. Assuming the PAC deal opens new windows for other conferences, then every other conference will be pushing to have their content selected for key windows.

By contrast, IMO the assumptions about the B12 are very optimistic. Losing Oklahoma and Texas will have some amount of negative impact. BYU, UCF, Cincy & Houston provide more content and new geography, but they’re not established national brands. Assuming that the B12 has an 8-fold greater upside (vis-a-vis the opportunity for incremental “Big Viewership Windows” than the B1G, SEC and/or ACC) is a tell-tell sign of that optimism.

(06-29-2023 11:06 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(06-28-2023 03:00 PM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(06-28-2023 12:29 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(06-28-2023 11:06 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(06-28-2023 04:20 AM)XLance Wrote:  SicEM365 is a Big 12 homer site. It will be interesting to see how accurate their numbers are compared to actual numbers once Texas and Oklahoma exit their conference.

No doubt, they're Baylor green. However, Bob Thompson is not known for his love of the big 12, he's spent the past year pumping up the Pac. Wilner linked the article, too. That's a pretty strong endorsement from sources not known for their love of the big 12.

Ehh? The thrust of the author’s argument seems to be that the B12 is uniquely positioned to gain the most “Big Viewership Windows” on television. Specifically,

1) B1G had 43 games on “Big Viewership Windows” with 14 teams and he’s predicting a potential of 46 games on “Big Viewership Windows”. In other words, the B1G expands with USC and UCLA and its potential for games on “Big Viewership Windows” expands by 7%.

2) SEC had 38 games on “Big Viewership Windows” with 14 teams and he’s forecasting a potential of 41 “Big Viewership Windows” in the future. The SEC will expand with blue bloods football programs (Oklahoma and Texas) and make the same incremental gain as the B1G.

3) B12 had 18 games on “Big Viewership Windows” as a 10-team conference and (per the author) has the potential for 28 games on “Big Viewership Windows” going forward. He’s predicting a 56% potential growth in B12 games during critical time-slots…more than all other FBS conferences combined.

Given that the future is uncertain, he’s presenting a very optimistic view for the B12 (the homer perspective).

Replying to each point:

1- Regarding the Big Ten. They have 16 NBC and 14-15 CBS with 14-15 FOX plus an annual title game. Depending on if the title games are included in those flexible high or low estimates that's 43-46. Exactly what's depicted on the chart. FS1, Peacock, and BTN won't get you 2M viewer expected windows.

2- Regarding the SEC they have 2 of the 14 additional games from TXOU committed to ESPN+. From there 5 of the 12 are likely committed to the SECN. So 7 new games total and they pick up a couple more on the big windows as minimums for other leagues and odd start times will likely be given elsewhere. They'll get those 7 on ABC/ESPN but not every ESPN window is 2M plus. Is there an argument for a couple more? Perhaps but it's far from a dramatic undersell.

3- Regarding the Big 12 it shows 18 as a starting point. That's reasonable as both the TV partners are likely down in P5 inventory once the P12 deal gets signed and FOX is likely way down.

As far as the upside to potentially get more let's look.

If FOX is out on the PAC 12 and if NBC & CBS contractually prevent FOX from putting B1G games on big fox in prime time or the afternoon that leaves around 21-22 games on FOX alone where the Big 12 or MWC could fill based on what they've broadcast before. If these assumptions are right it would appear to be a big opportunity to get additional platform windows.

Prior track record for the B1G on FOX was about 17 games per year total including Big Noon.

Saying there's a minimum of 18 and room for more isn't crazy.

The ACC has room for more but the competition on ABC/ESPN projects much tougher than FOX/FS1 which is why there's a disparity there.

I never wrote or even suggested that any assumption was crazy. Overall, it was informative and a good read.

Except for the B12, my take is that the assumptions are somewhat cautious and conservative. With regards to the P2, I believe that media companies will find more ways to promote their content…they’re more vested in these conferences and over time media can help develop brands. ESPN and Fox value and want the long-term relationships. With regards to the ACC, ESPN has been focused on solidifying (establishing) the ACCN…therefore, more valuable content has been redirected to that outlet. Assuming the PAC deal opens new windows for other conferences, then every other conference will be pushing to have their content selected for key windows.

By contrast, IMO the assumptions about the B12 are very optimistic. Losing Oklahoma and Texas will have some amount of negative impact. BYU, UCF, Cincy & Houston provide more content and new geography, but they’re not established national brands. Assuming that the B12 has an 8-fold greater upside (vis-a-vis the opportunity for incremental “Big Viewership Windows” than the B1G, SEC and/or ACC) is a tell-tell sign of that optimism.

The logic for it is outlined above:

- FOX passing on the P12
- B1G games on FOX slotted primarily in Noon slot. NBC & CBS exclusive rights to the other two slots. This likely forces other FOX games in their 32 game package to FS1.
- This leaves the Big 12 and MWC as the only likely options for 22 combined Afternoon & Prime spots on FOX. The projection assumes half this number.

Where is the flaw in the logic?

(06-29-2023 11:22 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(06-29-2023 11:06 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(06-28-2023 03:00 PM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(06-28-2023 12:29 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(06-28-2023 11:06 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  No doubt, they're Baylor green. However, Bob Thompson is not known for his love of the big 12, he's spent the past year pumping up the Pac. Wilner linked the article, too. That's a pretty strong endorsement from sources not known for their love of the big 12.

Ehh? The thrust of the author’s argument seems to be that the B12 is uniquely positioned to gain the most “Big Viewership Windows” on television. Specifically,

1) B1G had 43 games on “Big Viewership Windows” with 14 teams and he’s predicting a potential of 46 games on “Big Viewership Windows”. In other words, the B1G expands with USC and UCLA and its potential for games on “Big Viewership Windows” expands by 7%.

2) SEC had 38 games on “Big Viewership Windows” with 14 teams and he’s forecasting a potential of 41 “Big Viewership Windows” in the future. The SEC will expand with blue bloods football programs (Oklahoma and Texas) and make the same incremental gain as the B1G.

3) B12 had 18 games on “Big Viewership Windows” as a 10-team conference and (per the author) has the potential for 28 games on “Big Viewership Windows” going forward. He’s predicting a 56% potential growth in B12 games during critical time-slots…more than all other FBS conferences combined.

Given that the future is uncertain, he’s presenting a very optimistic view for the B12 (the homer perspective).

Replying to each point:

1- Regarding the Big Ten. They have 16 NBC and 14-15 CBS with 14-15 FOX plus an annual title game. Depending on if the title games are included in those flexible high or low estimates that's 43-46. Exactly what's depicted on the chart. FS1, Peacock, and BTN won't get you 2M viewer expected windows.

2- Regarding the SEC they have 2 of the 14 additional games from TXOU committed to ESPN+. From there 5 of the 12 are likely committed to the SECN. So 7 new games total and they pick up a couple more on the big windows as minimums for other leagues and odd start times will likely be given elsewhere. They'll get those 7 on ABC/ESPN but not every ESPN window is 2M plus. Is there an argument for a couple more? Perhaps but it's far from a dramatic undersell.

3- Regarding the Big 12 it shows 18 as a starting point. That's reasonable as both the TV partners are likely down in P5 inventory once the P12 deal gets signed and FOX is likely way down.

As far as the upside to potentially get more let's look.

If FOX is out on the PAC 12 and if NBC & CBS contractually prevent FOX from putting B1G games on big fox in prime time or the afternoon that leaves around 21-22 games on FOX alone where the Big 12 or MWC could fill based on what they've broadcast before. If these assumptions are right it would appear to be a big opportunity to get additional platform windows.

Prior track record for the B1G on FOX was about 17 games per year total including Big Noon.

Saying there's a minimum of 18 and room for more isn't crazy.

The ACC has room for more but the competition on ABC/ESPN projects much tougher than FOX/FS1 which is why there's a disparity there.

I never wrote or even suggested that any assumption was crazy. Overall, it was informative and a good read.

Except for the B12, my take is that the assumptions are somewhat cautious and conservative. With regards to the P2, I believe that media companies will find more ways to promote their content…they’re more vested in these conferences and over time media can help develop brands. ESPN and Fox value and want the long-term relationships. With regards to the ACC, ESPN has been focused on solidifying (establishing) the ACCN…therefore, more valuable content has been redirected to that outlet. Assuming the PAC deal opens new windows for other conferences, then every other conference will be pushing to have their content selected for key windows.

By contrast, IMO the assumptions about the B12 are very optimistic. Losing Oklahoma and Texas will have some amount of negative impact. BYU, UCF, Cincy & Houston provide more content and new geography, but they’re not established national brands. Assuming that the B12 has an 8-fold greater upside (vis-a-vis the opportunity for incremental “Big Viewership Windows” than the B1G, SEC and/or ACC) is a tell-tell sign of that optimism.

The logic for it is outlined above:

- FOX passing on the P12
- B1G games on FOX slotted primarily in Noon slot. NBC & CBS exclusive rights to the other two slots. This likely forces other FOX games in their 32 game package to FS1.
- This leaves the Big 12 and MWC as the only likely options for 22 combined Afternoon & Prime spots on FOX. The projection assumes half this number.

Where is the flaw in the logic?

It’s not a flaw, it’s optimism.

For example, since you’re focusing on the B1G’s restriction to “Big Viewership Windows” (bolded above)…

Per the ESPN article announcing the B1G media deal linked below, Fox/CBS/NBC have the potential to televise up to 63 B1G games (Fox 32, NBC 16 & CBS 15). The SicEm article lists the B1G’s potential at only 46 games. Possibly Fox is restricted to showing lesser desired games to FS1, but isn’t this an optimistic assumption? Even if Fox OTA telecast are restricted, with enhanced B1G content (e.g., expansion to 16 teams with USC & UCLA) how long until FS1’s distribution becomes ubiquitous?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...ox-cbs-nbc

(06-29-2023 12:09 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(06-29-2023 11:22 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(06-29-2023 11:06 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(06-28-2023 03:00 PM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(06-28-2023 12:29 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Ehh? The thrust of the author’s argument seems to be that the B12 is uniquely positioned to gain the most “Big Viewership Windows” on television. Specifically,

1) B1G had 43 games on “Big Viewership Windows” with 14 teams and he’s predicting a potential of 46 games on “Big Viewership Windows”. In other words, the B1G expands with USC and UCLA and its potential for games on “Big Viewership Windows” expands by 7%.

2) SEC had 38 games on “Big Viewership Windows” with 14 teams and he’s forecasting a potential of 41 “Big Viewership Windows” in the future. The SEC will expand with blue bloods football programs (Oklahoma and Texas) and make the same incremental gain as the B1G.

3) B12 had 18 games on “Big Viewership Windows” as a 10-team conference and (per the author) has the potential for 28 games on “Big Viewership Windows” going forward. He’s predicting a 56% potential growth in B12 games during critical time-slots…more than all other FBS conferences combined.

Given that the future is uncertain, he’s presenting a very optimistic view for the B12 (the homer perspective).

Replying to each point:

1- Regarding the Big Ten. They have 16 NBC and 14-15 CBS with 14-15 FOX plus an annual title game. Depending on if the title games are included in those flexible high or low estimates that's 43-46. Exactly what's depicted on the chart. FS1, Peacock, and BTN won't get you 2M viewer expected windows.

2- Regarding the SEC they have 2 of the 14 additional games from TXOU committed to ESPN+. From there 5 of the 12 are likely committed to the SECN. So 7 new games total and they pick up a couple more on the big windows as minimums for other leagues and odd start times will likely be given elsewhere. They'll get those 7 on ABC/ESPN but not every ESPN window is 2M plus. Is there an argument for a couple more? Perhaps but it's far from a dramatic undersell.

3- Regarding the Big 12 it shows 18 as a starting point. That's reasonable as both the TV partners are likely down in P5 inventory once the P12 deal gets signed and FOX is likely way down.

As far as the upside to potentially get more let's look.

If FOX is out on the PAC 12 and if NBC & CBS contractually prevent FOX from putting B1G games on big fox in prime time or the afternoon that leaves around 21-22 games on FOX alone where the Big 12 or MWC could fill based on what they've broadcast before. If these assumptions are right it would appear to be a big opportunity to get additional platform windows.

Prior track record for the B1G on FOX was about 17 games per year total including Big Noon.

Saying there's a minimum of 18 and room for more isn't crazy.

The ACC has room for more but the competition on ABC/ESPN projects much tougher than FOX/FS1 which is why there's a disparity there.

I never wrote or even suggested that any assumption was crazy. Overall, it was informative and a good read.

Except for the B12, my take is that the assumptions are somewhat cautious and conservative. With regards to the P2, I believe that media companies will find more ways to promote their content…they’re more vested in these conferences and over time media can help develop brands. ESPN and Fox value and want the long-term relationships. With regards to the ACC, ESPN has been focused on solidifying (establishing) the ACCN…therefore, more valuable content has been redirected to that outlet. Assuming the PAC deal opens new windows for other conferences, then every other conference will be pushing to have their content selected for key windows.

By contrast, IMO the assumptions about the B12 are very optimistic. Losing Oklahoma and Texas will have some amount of negative impact. BYU, UCF, Cincy & Houston provide more content and new geography, but they’re not established national brands. Assuming that the B12 has an 8-fold greater upside (vis-a-vis the opportunity for incremental “Big Viewership Windows” than the B1G, SEC and/or ACC) is a tell-tell sign of that optimism.

The logic for it is outlined above:

- FOX passing on the P12
- B1G games on FOX slotted primarily in Noon slot. NBC & CBS exclusive rights to the other two slots. This likely forces other FOX games in their 32 game package to FS1.
- This leaves the Big 12 and MWC as the only likely options for 22 combined Afternoon & Prime spots on FOX. The projection assumes half this number.

Where is the flaw in the logic?

It’s not a flaw, it’s optimism.

For example, since you’re focusing on the B1G’s restriction to “Big Viewership Windows” (bolded above)…

Per the ESPN article announcing the B1G media deal linked below, Fox/CBS/NBC have the potential to televise up to 63 B1G games (Fox 32, NBC 16 & CBS 15). The SicEm article lists the B1G’s potential at only 46 games. Possibly Fox is restricted to showing lesser desired games to FS1, but isn’t this an optimistic assumption? Even if Fox OTA telecast are restricted, with enhanced B1G content (e.g., expansion to 16 teams with USC & UCLA) how long until FS1’s distribution becomes ubiquitous?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...ox-cbs-nbc

Several points in reply:

1- 2022- 17 games on big FOX (includes CCG) and 13 on FS1 for a total of 30.

30-32 games in the new contract would likely have a similar split even before we consider any obligations to NBC/CBS.


2- Under the prior deal ABC/ESPN had a total of 27 Big Ten games as well. Even more important relative to this new deal- they largely alternated draft picks between the two entities. Their top two channels of ABC & ESPN typically got around the top 17 picks on their side. So the 15th game FOX selects for Big Fox would be the 29th game overall.

Under the new deal CBS and NBC are paying good money to make sure they get to pick early. So any game other than the Big Noon game (14 weeks) would be after those leagues pick 31 games. That's around the 43rd-46th pick overall. So from a matchup quality standpoint the desire will be blunted some.

2b- USC and UCLA add 13 games but between BTN and After Dark games it's not adding more than a handful of top games after NBC/CBS eat. At least 2-3 of the 13 games is going on BTN (2 appearance minimum per school and 1 has to be a conference game) and FOX will likely put at least a couple late to help with inventory- especially if they ignore the PAC 12. We're left with 8-10 added games but how many are top billing?

The 13 games they add are largely offset by CBS coming in with 14-15 games per year and NBC getting 16 + 8 for their Peacock streaming platform. (Combined all 3 total 39 as opposed to ABC/ESPN's 27 + 13 new totaling 40)

3- FS1 has a long way to go before their viewership will support big viewership consistently. Not a single game over the last two years broke 2M. Only a handful in their existence have typically with some monster matchups. Purdue vs Minnesota when they are both 5-3 isn't making that cut.

(06-28-2023 04:20 AM)XLance Wrote:  SicEM365 is a Big 12 homer site. It will be interesting to see how accurate their numbers are compared to actual numbers once Texas and Oklahoma exit their conference.

Doesn't mean its not accurate. Sam Bradshaw is serious and really good. Far better than anyone else I have read who tries to tackle this stuff.

The ACC is in process of buying back games from Raycom due to Bally's going bankrupt. These projections are far too kind to the Big 12.

(06-29-2023 04:35 PM)CFBLurker Wrote:  The ACC is in process of buying back games from Raycom due to Bally's going bankrupt. These projections are far too kind to the Big 12.

The Big 12 could potentially gain in exposure wholesale but we won't know until we know.

He is very kind to the Big 12 and he's only working with limited data sets.

I can easily see things changing if more ACC games become available or FOX, CBS and NBC come to other terms about broadcasting games at the same time.

Anything can happen.

(06-29-2023 04:35 PM)CFBLurker Wrote:  The ACC is in process of buying back games from Raycom due to Bally's going bankrupt. These projections are far too kind to the Big 12.

I’ll believe it when I see it regarding espn buying back their sublicense. Everything I’ve seen reported is it’s been cost prohibitive.

However if ESPN is making SEC fans play one home game per school on ESPN+ I have to imagine ESPN+ is a strong option for most of those 17 games or at least swapping them out with the 14 weakest ACCN games and shoving those on ESPN+.

If you are ESPN...

You could broadcast similar rated matchups with the Big 12 making similar money on ads regardless of who is broadcast and who is on ESPN+
OR
You could make ACC fanbases in September, October, & November pay for ESPN+ where they don't have to now and make more subscription revenue than you do now and potentially increasing possible viewers for ads on other ESPN+ content.

You can also increase the desirability of the matchups on ACC Network by swapping out the best RAYCOM games with the weakest ACCN ones. This likely draws more ad revenue even if you don't get any more carriage fee revenue.

I see a business case for ESPN+ hosting 14 of the 17 added inventory if they get the sublicense back because technically they own those games and resell to Raycom for the duration of the deal if I remember correctly.