RE: More Conference Realignment?
If the Pac-12 manages to mostly stick together beyond Colorado, USC, and UCLA (I'm doubtful) they likely add SDSU and SMU only. If the Pac-12 lose more members they'll likely be taking more schools from the MWC (think CSU, UNLV, maybe Fresno) than the AAC. They could look to poach Tulane, and maybe Rice (lol), but I don't think those additions really move the needle. I don't think schools like Memphis, UTSA, UNT, or Tulsa are a fit for the Pac-12.
It cannot be stressed enough that there are certain schools in the MWC that are unlikely to be invited to the Pac-12 and now have virtually no shot at the B12 either. Schools like Boise State, Air Force, Utah State, New Mexico, and Wyoming are unlikely to be invited to any power conference. This could make things very interesting if the Pac-12 primarily backfills from the MWC.
If the AAC loses SMU, they could add Boise State, AFA, and another leftover MWC school fairly easily. They could also see if they can entice Army to join (football only) in a scenario where AFA and Navy are already in the AAC. They would need an Olympics-only partner, likely from the A-10, in such a case.
If the AAC keeps SMU, they may add Boise and AFA, or they could stand pat at 14. One scenario of concern is where the entire MWC and Pac-12 remnants merge, leaving them in a position to potentially poach members from the AAC, if their media deal is better.
Overall, the AAC might actually be in a decent position for this realignment cycle as the P5 looks to become the P4. That being said, I'll believe it when I see it. The AAC was once trying to poach from the B12 and we all know how that ended.
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