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+---- Thread: Midterms-who shows up matters (/thread-858371.html)
Midterms-who shows up matters - bullet - 09-18-2018 10:15 AM
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/09/18/electorate_makeup_will_be_key_to_midterm_outcome_138090.html
"With the last primary of the 2018 midterm cycle over, it’s now official: The general election has begun. With 50 days to go, who are midterm voters?
“A midterm voter is little bit older, a little bit whiter and more educated” than a presidential election voter, said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball Report. While this demographic is usually a positive for Republicans, he cautioned that “educated voters are becoming more Democratic with each election....”"
RE: Midterms-who shows up matters - bullet - 09-18-2018 10:21 AM
I expect the Republicans to pick up a few Senate seats. Not sure what to expect on the House. RCP keeps trending toward more favorable to the Democrats on the House. They have it 206-190 D with 39 tossups (almost all held by Republicans now). A month ago it was something like 201-196 R with 38 tossups. They have governors 23-20 R with 7 tossups which seems to be trending towards the Republicans. Current is 33-16-1 R which is probably the best the Republicans have done since Reconstruction, so they will almost certainly lose a few.
But it isn't clear that any of that is based on polls. They have few polls even on the Senate races.
I could see the polls and DC insiders being wrong again and the Republicans picking up as many as 9 Senate seats and even a couple of House seats, but don't think that's the most likely.
RE: Midterms-who shows up matters - Kronke - 09-18-2018 01:01 PM
Far-left polling outlet Quinnipiac just released new polling in Texas, showing LION TED up 9 points on beta o'soy. It's amazing the only time beta can even get within the margin of error is when they poll equal numbers of Rs to Ds, a ridiculous notion in Texas, a R+8 state.
Just wait until the MAGA rally we get in the biggest stadium President Trump can find. Can you say "blowout"?
#CruzinToVictory
#ToughAsTexas
Quote:September 18, 2018 - Cruz Has 9-Point Likely Voter Lead In Texas Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Trump Gets A Split 49 - 49 Percent Job Approval Score
https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2570